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Monday, September 24, 2018

Fowler, still owed almost $50 million, eager to be part of Cardinals’ future | St. Louis Cardinals | stltoday.com

Does Fowler really still have a place in the Cardinals outfield?

Jim Furtado Posted: September 24, 2018 at 06:28 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, dexter fowler

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   1. I Am Not a Number Posted: September 24, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5750492)
Just another case of buyer's remorse. Doing well as a consumer in free agency often entails little more than just showing the resolve to stay away.
   2. salvomania Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:00 AM (#5750521)
He'd be a great fourth OF if he wasn't so terrible defensively.

I'm not convinced he can't still hit, since as recently as a year ago he was a very good hitter with strong on-base skills and a career-best slugging pct.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 24, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5750529)
Doing well as a consumer in free agency often entails little more than just showing the resolve to stay away.
"A strange game.The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?"
   4. phredbird Posted: September 24, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5750630)

dexter who?


i'm not trying to be mean, but in all the craziness of august and (somewhat) resurrection of ozuna and the development of players like martinez and bader and oneill, he's now a forgotten man, and it's too bad because he is a nice guy from what i've read.
   5. Man o' Schwar Posted: September 24, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5750681)
I think the Cubs would swap Heyward for him. Just go back to the status quo.
   6. bfan Posted: September 24, 2018 at 04:10 PM (#5750833)
Doing well as a consumer in free agency often entails little more than just showing the resolve to stay away.


Only if you are willing to withstand the slings and arrows of those who then claim you are not trying hard enough to win.
   7. The Duke Posted: September 24, 2018 at 04:15 PM (#5750839)
I think Fowler has way more upside than most think. He was quite good offensively a year ago. This was just a lost season. Cards will try hard to trade him but it will take a grade A prospect in the deal to get rid of him. His real issue is that there is no room for him anymore. So he needs to be dealt. CArdinals keep trading away great talent and not getting much back. Diaz, Grichuk, Voit, Gonzalez, Pham, piscotty. That’s a lot of talent to give away with near zero improvement to our performance.

Carson kelly will be the next to go and they’ll probably get a bag of baseballs for a guy who will start at catcher for 10 years
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: September 24, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5750850)
He has a no trade clause, so if he wants to stay a Cardinal, the ball is in his court. More than likely the Cardinals end up trading Martinez this off season to an AL team for a few lottery tickets/bullpen arms...giving a rotating outfield of Bader/Ozuna/Fowler/O'neil with a couple of prospects as fill in for emergencies (or if they develop more) As far as I know of, the Cardinals don't have a lot in the minors ready to take over in the outfield in case of injuries... Garcia and Arozarena haven't actually tore up the minors yet. Of course I like having five legit starters in the outfield for matchups and such, but finding playing time when they are all healthy is difficult, and creates a bit of tension in the dugout, so even though Martinez is a professional hitter, he's probably going to be one for another organization next year.

Having one of your four outfielders being capable of batting left isn't a bad thing. And a guy like Fowler who doesn't really have a big split (he's a better hitter a little bit right handed, but not by a lot)

The thing is that the Cardinals could make an attractive trade package for someone that they needed, if they really needed anyone. The thing is they aren't really sure of any pressing needs. They have five starting outfielders right now(two that had an off year, and one that still needs to prove he can do it at the major league level and one who's defense is suspect...but they all are good enough to be starters) They have a guy who was an MVP candidate a couple of weeks ago at first/third, a gold glove quality second baseman, a quality starting catcher and a power hitting shortstop that has shown plus defense in his two years in the majors...Gyorko has averaged 3 war in his three seasons with the Cardinals, while only playing about 125 games a season.... I mean I would gladly acquire Machado or Harper and worry about the roster in spring training, but making a trade to fill a need doesn't really seem to be necessary.


Even the rotation looks to be good, before the inevitable injuries, and the pen is what a pen is almost always, a thing to be taken care of in spring training based upon who doesn't earn the starting job. The only 'need' is a legit closer and reliable set up man, but I'm not sure that is something you can get through a trade with confidence anyway.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: September 24, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5750874)
Fowler is (probably) fine as 4th OF and can probably pick up some 1B and DH in the handful of AL park games. Or he's old and done.

A seemingly obvious comp is Denard Span who I'd written off. They're not the same player of course -- Span relied much more on speed -- but overall they come out pretty similar. For ages 31-34, span's OPS+ has been 116, 93, 98 and now 114 in (give or take) 500-550 PA per season. Rfield put him as disastrous in CF, average so far in LF, but it kills his WAR, putting him at about 1 WAR in full-time play. But the bat still seems solid enough to hold down that 500 PA role if you keep him out of CF.

Maybe Fowler completely forgot how to hit in one offseason -- it happened to Heyward -- but as others have said, probably not and he's probably a good enough bat for the next couple of seasons to be a solid 400-500 PA guy. Not worth the money but the money's committed so it doesn't matter at this point. The Cards may not be the best-situated team to extract the value he does have left given their depth -- I'll wildly speculate a mid-late spring trade for a 5th/6th starter type or a couple of over-priced but still mediocre relievers.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: September 24, 2018 at 06:13 PM (#5750914)
The Cards may not be the best-situated team to extract the value he does have left given their depth -- I'll wildly speculate a mid-late spring trade for a 5th/6th starter type or a couple of over-priced but still mediocre relievers.


He does have a no trade clause, which is going to make an already tough contract to trade, even tougher. From the Cardinals viewpoint, you basically go into the season assuming he's a fourth outfielder who will get regular action against right handed pitching since the team has no left handed hitting outfielders. And just hope a return to form for him. Having him and Carpenter on the same lineup, is a hassle for pitchers, that will help out with a few of the less selective hitters on the roster. If Shildt is as good as Matheny at juggling the lineup, he'll get plenty of playing time to stay happy, but still be hungry to prove himself.

I have no idea if I'm right on this, but it just feels like a guy who's as selective as he has been in his youth, has a tendency to age better (offensively) than guys who are less selective. The real drawback is his defense sucks. People bag on Martinez, but Martinez makes the routine.... Fowler feels a bit like Lonnie Smith out there at times, or for Cardinal fans of old, he's Lou Brock, just not a good defender. I get he was out of position in center, but he just hasn't been good even in right.
   11. KJOK Posted: September 24, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5750939)
I think we're making this more complicated than it is. Bader is the only 'true' CF, so even though his bat might turn out to be less than average, due to defense and base running, he is staying. Ozuna is a lock in LF. So that just leaves RF, where the Cardinals have Martinez (already said he wants to stay in St. Louis), O'Neil (may not make enough consistent contact), Munoz (most likely a utility role though), and Fowler, plus 4th OF types in waiting like Randy Arozarena, Ardolis Garcia, Justin Williams, and Thomas Lane. That's simply too many OF options to pay Fowler to play part-time. They should make every effort to buy out his no-trade clause and get some "B" type prospect in return.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: September 24, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5750980)
I don't think we are making it more complicated, it is complicated. You have two guys on the roster who are making big money and you have to at least give them a chance to recoup the loss. You have three other guys who aren't being paid #### who have earned playing time, you have to balance everything out to keep people happy. That is not an easy task. It is complicated.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: September 25, 2018 at 06:56 PM (#5751892)
And of course the complication in the headline -- 3/$50. So it's "trade him plus $25 M plus a couple million to him for the NTC for a warm body" which is not too hard but not too easy. That's why I'm suggesting more of an over-priced vet that we have no use for but you do for an over-priced vet that you have no use for but we do trade.
   14. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 25, 2018 at 07:13 PM (#5751907)
CArdinals keep trading away great talent and not getting much back. Diaz, Grichuk, Voit, Gonzalez, Pham, piscotty.

Great. Ha.

They should make every effort to buy out his no-trade clause and get some "B" type prospect in return.


Hahaha.
   15. phredbird Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:15 PM (#5751942)

i'm with those suggesting trading martinez.

i love him, and he can hit a ton, but he can't run and he is not a good fielder.

but he has real trade value, especially to the american league.

the cardinals are good at making cold blooded decisions (piscotty looks like a nice gesture, but he was not going to be happy in STL and he could have ended up being an albatross).

this might have to be one of them.
   16. Spahn Insane Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:27 PM (#5751957)
Yeah, I think hoping to snag a grade B prospect for Fowler is....optimistic.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:00 PM (#5751986)
I don't want to trade Martinez.... but he's the odd man out right now. He has real value to about 10 AL teams and the Cardinals are stacked at the position, and in reality the difference between Martinez current established offensive level and the potential of the guys he is competing against is negligible.. (although I really do think Martinez is not that far off from a David Ortiz 5 year peak type of thing...nobody on the Cardinals team/organization has that offensive potential except maybe O'neil or that kid that we drafted this year that is probably 3 years away from the majors...but that is hoping for the best type of result, and those results are only going to happen in an environment where he plays everyday and doesn't have to worry about losing playing time because of a bad week with the glove)


even if we don't get much back in return, why would you want to punish a guy who could potentially have a pretty lucrative career, simply because you own his rights?
   18. Walt Davis Posted: September 26, 2018 at 07:53 PM (#5752851)
even if we don't get much back in return, why would you want to punish a guy who could potentially have a pretty lucrative career, simply because you own his rights?

In the glorious free market, it's not "punishment" but "what kind of return can we get for this asset?" and other exciting questions. While it's certainly true a number of AL teams could use Martinez for DH, they aren't likely to give up much for a 30-year-old full-time DH with fewer than 900 career PA and a 129 OPS+. Possibly better (and certainly cheaper) than Kendrys Morales doesn't set the heart a-flutter.

Great. Ha

I was gonna post something similar ... and "great" is obviously an oversell ... but ...

Pham 191 OPS+ at TB
Piscotty 123 OPS+, 2.7 WAR at Oak
Grichuk 113 OPS+, 1.9 WAR (0.3 WAA) at Tor
Diaz 108 OPS+, 1.3 WAR (-0.2 WAA) at Tor
Voit 162 OPS+ hot streak for NYY

and I'm not sure which Gonzales that is but I assume Marco Gonzales who's put up a 97 ERA+ in 162 IP, 2.2 WAR, 0.7 WAA (very few UER) for SEA.

So that's 4 near full-time guys having average or better seasons plus two guys who've torn it up since leaving the Cards. Something like 9-10 WAR, probably 2 WAA -- not many teams could trade that much away over the course of one season and remain winners. Longer-term they probably wouldn't miss any of those guys too much under standard circumstances but it is a good chunk of average ML talent.

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