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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, September 24, 2018
Does Fowler really still have a place in the Cardinals outfield?
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1. I Am Not a Number Posted: September 24, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5750492)I'm not convinced he can't still hit, since as recently as a year ago he was a very good hitter with strong on-base skills and a career-best slugging pct.
dexter who?
i'm not trying to be mean, but in all the craziness of august and (somewhat) resurrection of ozuna and the development of players like martinez and bader and oneill, he's now a forgotten man, and it's too bad because he is a nice guy from what i've read.
Only if you are willing to withstand the slings and arrows of those who then claim you are not trying hard enough to win.
Carson kelly will be the next to go and they’ll probably get a bag of baseballs for a guy who will start at catcher for 10 years
Having one of your four outfielders being capable of batting left isn't a bad thing. And a guy like Fowler who doesn't really have a big split (he's a better hitter a little bit right handed, but not by a lot)
The thing is that the Cardinals could make an attractive trade package for someone that they needed, if they really needed anyone. The thing is they aren't really sure of any pressing needs. They have five starting outfielders right now(two that had an off year, and one that still needs to prove he can do it at the major league level and one who's defense is suspect...but they all are good enough to be starters) They have a guy who was an MVP candidate a couple of weeks ago at first/third, a gold glove quality second baseman, a quality starting catcher and a power hitting shortstop that has shown plus defense in his two years in the majors...Gyorko has averaged 3 war in his three seasons with the Cardinals, while only playing about 125 games a season.... I mean I would gladly acquire Machado or Harper and worry about the roster in spring training, but making a trade to fill a need doesn't really seem to be necessary.
Even the rotation looks to be good, before the inevitable injuries, and the pen is what a pen is almost always, a thing to be taken care of in spring training based upon who doesn't earn the starting job. The only 'need' is a legit closer and reliable set up man, but I'm not sure that is something you can get through a trade with confidence anyway.
A seemingly obvious comp is Denard Span who I'd written off. They're not the same player of course -- Span relied much more on speed -- but overall they come out pretty similar. For ages 31-34, span's OPS+ has been 116, 93, 98 and now 114 in (give or take) 500-550 PA per season. Rfield put him as disastrous in CF, average so far in LF, but it kills his WAR, putting him at about 1 WAR in full-time play. But the bat still seems solid enough to hold down that 500 PA role if you keep him out of CF.
Maybe Fowler completely forgot how to hit in one offseason -- it happened to Heyward -- but as others have said, probably not and he's probably a good enough bat for the next couple of seasons to be a solid 400-500 PA guy. Not worth the money but the money's committed so it doesn't matter at this point. The Cards may not be the best-situated team to extract the value he does have left given their depth -- I'll wildly speculate a mid-late spring trade for a 5th/6th starter type or a couple of over-priced but still mediocre relievers.
He does have a no trade clause, which is going to make an already tough contract to trade, even tougher. From the Cardinals viewpoint, you basically go into the season assuming he's a fourth outfielder who will get regular action against right handed pitching since the team has no left handed hitting outfielders. And just hope a return to form for him. Having him and Carpenter on the same lineup, is a hassle for pitchers, that will help out with a few of the less selective hitters on the roster. If Shildt is as good as Matheny at juggling the lineup, he'll get plenty of playing time to stay happy, but still be hungry to prove himself.
I have no idea if I'm right on this, but it just feels like a guy who's as selective as he has been in his youth, has a tendency to age better (offensively) than guys who are less selective. The real drawback is his defense sucks. People bag on Martinez, but Martinez makes the routine.... Fowler feels a bit like Lonnie Smith out there at times, or for Cardinal fans of old, he's Lou Brock, just not a good defender. I get he was out of position in center, but he just hasn't been good even in right.
Great. Ha.
Hahaha.
i'm with those suggesting trading martinez.
i love him, and he can hit a ton, but he can't run and he is not a good fielder.
but he has real trade value, especially to the american league.
the cardinals are good at making cold blooded decisions (piscotty looks like a nice gesture, but he was not going to be happy in STL and he could have ended up being an albatross).
this might have to be one of them.
even if we don't get much back in return, why would you want to punish a guy who could potentially have a pretty lucrative career, simply because you own his rights?
In the glorious free market, it's not "punishment" but "what kind of return can we get for this asset?" and other exciting questions. While it's certainly true a number of AL teams could use Martinez for DH, they aren't likely to give up much for a 30-year-old full-time DH with fewer than 900 career PA and a 129 OPS+. Possibly better (and certainly cheaper) than Kendrys Morales doesn't set the heart a-flutter.
Great. Ha
I was gonna post something similar ... and "great" is obviously an oversell ... but ...
Pham 191 OPS+ at TB
Piscotty 123 OPS+, 2.7 WAR at Oak
Grichuk 113 OPS+, 1.9 WAR (0.3 WAA) at Tor
Diaz 108 OPS+, 1.3 WAR (-0.2 WAA) at Tor
Voit 162 OPS+ hot streak for NYY
and I'm not sure which Gonzales that is but I assume Marco Gonzales who's put up a 97 ERA+ in 162 IP, 2.2 WAR, 0.7 WAA (very few UER) for SEA.
So that's 4 near full-time guys having average or better seasons plus two guys who've torn it up since leaving the Cards. Something like 9-10 WAR, probably 2 WAA -- not many teams could trade that much away over the course of one season and remain winners. Longer-term they probably wouldn't miss any of those guys too much under standard circumstances but it is a good chunk of average ML talent.
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