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Meanwhile, we have been treated to the same arguments that were debunked months ago. And also, this continued shilling for your article. I cannot believe bprime is letting you get away with this. I wonder if I can start putting blatant ads in the posts.
I don't mind Steve mentioning his upcoming article. I look forward to something like that more than, say, a Toby Cobb article. But thanks to you and Mike Emeigh, I won't take it as gospel.
I think that philly made a good point too: Absent a statistically significant difference in terms in favor of the releif ace model, then people are msotly arguing personal aesthetic preferences under the guise of helping teams win more games.
Personally, I don't really know how to conduct a study that would determine what pitching staff usage is best (and I think that falls under the larger subject of roster construction), but I don't think it's a one size fits all thing. Aesthetically, I'm not big on mid-inning changes and I kind of dig platoon combos.
In any case, I'd rather discuss this than last's night's shenanigans at Fenway.
All Pitchers
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 486 3.74 452.94 100
1910 672 3.88 405.31 100
1920 556 4.07 389.54 100
1930 460 4.87 470.17 100
1940 523 4.63 408.01 100
1950 507 5.77 498.77 100
1960 608 6.12 571.45 100
1970 642 6.18 548.32 100
1980 716 6.51 511.03 100
Pitchers with careers >= 3 years
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 214 6.83 980.32 44
1910 292 7.3 889.13 43
1920 233 7.88 892.58 42
1930 252 7.81 836.56 55
1940 279 7.5 736.09 53
1950 295 8.94 836.39 58
1960 374 9.07 908.82 62
1970 417 8.79 826.65 65
1980 491 8.85 732.46 69
Pitchers with careers >= 9 years
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 59 12.49 2182.95 12
1910 85 13.52 2045.83 13
1920 88 13.24 1825.42 16
1930 93 12.69 1661.24 20
1940 95 12.51 1483.95 18
1950 130 13.92 1534.47 26
1960 166 13.76 1632.63 27
1970 180 13.71 1505.45 28
1980 223 13.31 1262.99 31
Pitchers with careers >= 300 IP
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 156 8.08 1302.43 32
1910 194 9.11 1268.97 29
1920 158 9.83 1253.38 28
1930 167 9.77 1188.33 36
1940 182 9.5 1054.7 35
1950 185 11.7 1249.28 36
1960 245 11.5 1309.07 40
1970 277 11.07 1170.98 43
1980 314 11.27 1066 44
Pitchers with careers >= 1000 IP
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 87 10.67 1897.56 18
1910 99 12.34 1956.76 15
1920 84 13.27 1898.39 15
1930 86 12.79 1773.53 19
1940 80 12.52 1667.44 15
1950 96 14.91 1873.63 19
1960 123 14.59 2028.97 20
1970 139 14.35 1787.62 22
1980 131 14.4 1773.79 18
Decade = decade of pitcher's debut
Count = number of pitchers in sample
Yr = mean career length in years
IP = mean career length in IP
% = percentage of population that fits into categoryAll Pitchers
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 486 3.74 452.94 100
1910 672 3.88 405.31 100
1920 556 4.07 389.54 100
1930 460 4.87 470.17 100
1940 523 4.63 408.01 100
1950 507 5.77 498.77 100
1960 608 6.12 571.45 100
1970 642 6.18 548.32 100
1980 716 6.51 511.03 100
Pitchers with careers >= 3 years
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 214 6.83 980.32 44
1910 292 7.3 889.13 43
1920 233 7.88 892.58 42
1930 252 7.81 836.56 55
1940 279 7.5 736.09 53
1950 295 8.94 836.39 58
1960 374 9.07 908.82 62
1970 417 8.79 826.65 65
1980 491 8.85 732.46 69
Pitchers with careers >= 9 years
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 59 12.49 2182.95 12
1910 85 13.52 2045.83 13
1920 88 13.24 1825.42 16
1930 93 12.69 1661.24 20
1940 95 12.51 1483.95 18
1950 130 13.92 1534.47 26
1960 166 13.76 1632.63 27
1970 180 13.71 1505.45 28
1980 223 13.31 1262.99 31
Pitchers with careers >= 300 IP
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 156 8.08 1302.43 32
1910 194 9.11 1268.97 29
1920 158 9.83 1253.38 28
1930 167 9.77 1188.33 36
1940 182 9.5 1054.7 35
1950 185 11.7 1249.28 36
1960 245 11.5 1309.07 40
1970 277 11.07 1170.98 43
1980 314 11.27 1066 44
Pitchers with careers >= 1000 IP
Decade Count Yr IP %
1900 87 10.67 1897.56 18
1910 99 12.34 1956.76 15
1920 84 13.27 1898.39 15
1930 86 12.79 1773.53 19
1940 80 12.52 1667.44 15
1950 96 14.91 1873.63 19
1960 123 14.59 2028.97 20
1970 139 14.35 1787.62 22
1980 131 14.4 1773.79 18
Decade = decade of pitcher's debut
Count = number of pitchers in sample
Yr = mean career length in years
IP = mean career length in IP
% = percentage of population that fits into category
I'm not sure why my numbers are different from BL, but his general conclusion is shown more strongly in these results. If you consider years to be a good measure of career length, then pitchers are pitching longer than ever before -- and it's been a pretty consistent climb throughout the century.
If you look at mean IP, there's a drop through the early part of the century, then a upturn in the 50's, peaking in the 60's and dropping off again after that.
Of course, looking at the percentages, you do get a larger proportion of pitchers hitting the somewhat arbitrary cutoffs. My take on all this data is that pitchers in general are lasting longer than before but you see more pitchers extending their career through relief work (or simply being career relievers) contributing to the slightly lower percentage of pitchers hitting the higher innings numbers.
or not.
i'm taking a quick look right now at how long RP are lasting...i'll try to get some results up tonight.
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