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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, July 14, 2008
AL MVP — Ian Kinsler, Rangers
First, a few quick words on MVP criteria. The imbecilic idea that the MVP must come from a contending team is based on neither common sense nor the official ballot instructions given to voters. The only objective standard is to give the MVP to — novelty of novelties — the best damn player. It’s certainly appropriate to evaluate his performance in clutch situations, but when you hold him accountable for his team’s position in the standings, what you’re doing, in essence, is penalizing or rewarding him for how his teammates are doing. Doing that betrays a child’s grasp of the process. So in this space we give the MVP award to the best player, not an inferior player whose lucky enough to have better guys wearing the same laundry. Anyhow ...
Josh Hamilton gets most of the press in Arlington these days, but Kinsler has been the better player. Kinsler isn’t an optimal defender, but he does man a key, up-the-middle position. In part, that positional scarcity is what makes his season to date so special. The average major-league second baseman this season is hitting .274 AVG/.337 OBP/.409 SLG, while Kinsler has authored a batting line of .332 AVG/.393 OBP/.541 SLG (he’s also on pace for 54 doubles and 24 homers). Clutch performance? Kinsler’s batting .344 with runners on and .405 with runners in scoring position. Oh, and he’s also 23 out of 24 in the steals department. That kind of production from a second baseman is rare indeed.
Child’s Grasp of the Process? Didn’t Swedeplease mention them in their extensive look at the Gothenburg euro-electro (f)punk scene? No? Ok…
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1. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: July 14, 2008 at 04:39 AM (#2855581)Kinsler leads the AL (by a lot) in Win Shares and VORP.
SP - Lee AL; Volquez NL
RP - Rivera AL; Cordero NL
C - Mauer AL; Soto NL
1B - Morneau AL; Berkman NL
2B - Kinsler AL; Uggla NL
3B - Longoria AL; Jones NL
SS - Young AL; Ramirez NL
OF - Hamilton AL; McLouth NL
OF - Sizemore AL; Beltran NL
OF - Upton AL; Bay NL
DH - Bradley; Pujols NL
While these would be your VORP All-Star starters (where it differs is in bold):
SP - Lee AL; Sheets NL
RP - Rivera AL; Saito NL
C - Mauer AL; McCann NL
1B - Youkilis AL; Berkman NL
2B - Kinsler AL; Utley NL
3B - Longoria AL; Jones NL
SS - Young AL; Ramirez NL
OF - Hamilton AL; McLouth NL
OF - Sizemore AL; Holliday NL
OF - Drew AL; Burrell NL
DH - Bradley; Pujols NL
IMO Value always comes down to wins and making the postseason... how many wins you help lead your team to, and what percentage of each win were you personally responsible for. Odds are, like is assumed in wins shares, good players will lead to wins similarly on good and bad teams, but that doesn't mean that we can't try to look at team performance as an aspect of MVP.
####### it, why do I read a comment like this, go read the article comments, and then be surprised that they're worse than I imagined?
Is the most expensive diamond in the world less valuable if its owner has no other money?
Haren is fourth in the NL by ERA, eighth in strikeouts, sixth in innings pitched, 1st in K/BB (by a mile, he has a 5.09 K/9 and Sheets is second with 3.86), 1st in WHIP (he and Cole Hamels are the only pitchers under one), 2nd in FIP (.02 behind Lincecum), and as of last night, second in ERA+ behind only Volquez.
In my opinion, the only way that you can put Sheets ahead of Haren is to place a "pitching in the NL West" penalty against him. Of course, Lincecum is Perry's runner up so clearly that's not a factor.
It's intrinsic value is the same but it's relative value is less.
Relative to what?
If the owner of the world's most expensive diamond had no other assets, wouldn't that make the relative value of the diamond more because of the rarity of assets? You know, a supply and demand kind of deal?
I would like to report an inappropriate comment, I think.
To paraphrase the late great George Carlin, think how dumb the average American is. Then realize half the people are dumber than that.
Agree. It's hard to ignore a guy when he's leading the AL in both on-base and slugging.
You see whenever I think the quality of the comments on BBTF are slipping I can always scan other blogs...
What about Honus Wagner? ARod? Vaughn? Actually the reference to Jeter bing in the top 3 (careerwise) isn't too far off (albeit no decline phase yet), it's Ripken's and Bank's. (If you count Banks YOU HAVE to count AROD.
Even if BA-HR-RBI are your metrics of choice, .276-13-60 fro Murphy and .275-16-53 for Longoria, "a lot more" in favorable of Murphy is arguable. If you use ANY metric more advance than AVG-HR-RBI, Longoria is far far ahead... without even getting to fielding
Bradley has been impressive, but he's missed some time and spent some games at DH. He's been great, but not as valuable as Kinsler. That long term deal the Rangers signed Kinsler to is looking awfully good right about now...
Absolutely, I think Kinsler is the best choice of the three, but it does surprise me that Bradley doesn't even get a mention in an article from someone like Dayn Perry, even if all he said was exactly what you wrote.
I think we'll continue to see more and more deals like Kinsler's handed out to young players.
wow, didnt ur mom ever tell u crack kills? where have u been? chase u is the best player in baseball right now, let alone the nl
(multi-year): Batting - 101, Pitching - 101
(one-year): Batting - 102, Pitching - 102
I guess Miller park helps hitters a little bit compared to a number of other parks. But for me...even though 100 is "officially neutral", I generally tend to look at parks between 98-102 as all more or less neutral. Are park factors THAT accurate that we can really make a case there is much difference between 99-101? Is Sheets really overcoming some burden by pitching in a hitters park? Don't get me wrong, Sheets is a fine choice, but to me it just seems a little bit of overkill to bring up the park factor here. Miller park doesn't even rate as much of a hitters park as Dodger stadium. ;)
I'm the type of annoying guy who looks up things like that- but I should never doubt your powers of observation.
Sheets first half: 56-43 3.50
second half: 27-34 4.12
I should have known- I once traded for Sheets midseason in my roto league- yes I was disappointed...
Player, BtRuns (B-Ref), PosAdj (through 60% of season), Field (estimated), *total*
Sizemore, 20, 3, 5, *28*
Bradley, 34, -7, 0, *27* (but hurt by playing time when converting to replacement level)
Kinsler, 30, 0, -5, *25*
Hamilton, 24, 1, 0, *25*
VORP underrates center fielders relative to other positions, by the way.
it does?
BPRO has Sizemore with 69.9 EQR in 267 outs
Markakis has 63.9 in 252 outs, yet Sizemore's VORP is 42.5 and Markakis is 29.9
seems to me that Sizemore is being given a decent size positional adjustment for being a CF rather than an RF
A better way to handle positional adjustments is to measure defensive ability. From Tango, when corner outfielders switch to center field and vice versa, they rate about ten runs worse. When you do the same thing across all positions, you get 2B and 3B right in the middle of the spectrum, SS and CF with 5 run bonuses, LF and RF with 5 run penalties, 1B with a ten run penalty, and catcher with a ten run bonus. All approximate.
So, over a full season, Sizmore should get a ten run bump compared to Markakis due to position. Which VORP has done. Guess I'm wrong, although I don't understand it. Does VORP treat RF and LF the same?
I have CF 2.5 runs per 1350 innings over 2B. From what I gather, Tango and AROM adjust similarly.
second half: 27-34 4.12
The most important thing to note there is that Sheets only has 60 percent as many decisions in the second half.
no..., CFs tend to be worse on offense (on average) than RFs and LFs, and have been for many many years.
I know what you mean, Sheets has been breaking down in recent years, but "half" is decided by the all star break which tends to occur 10 or more games after the actual midpoint
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