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1. Tripon Posted: January 18, 2010 at 05:41 AM (#3439999)I predict that he'd be a -5 defender somehow even if he played a full season at DH.
Honus Wagner says hello.
On edit: D'oh! I misinterpreted bookbook's comment. Sorry, and carry on.
Traditionalists could have Jeter #2. First, because they tend to be pretty sentimental and over-ranking a guy like Jeter would be where sentiment would lead. And 2 because they'll insist that ARod's not a SS because, when given a choice, they moved him out of the position in Jeter's favor.
A generation hence, when a new generation rules the world and the sentiment is removed, Jeter will be down behind Vaughan and Cal. But for many, ARod probably still won't be a SS. It's like those lists that have Ernie Banks at 1B.
Only slightly better? I wonder who has been underrating him...
A-rod has played 1272 games at SS, 868 at 3B. In 2 1/2 full seasons worth of games, his games at 3B total surpasses his SS total.
However, Ernie Banks played 1259 games at 1B and 1125 at SS and he's still thought of as a shortstop first. Rod Carew played 1184 at 1B and 1130 at 2B and he's thought of as a second baseman. So at first glance he appears to be in good position to be though of as a shortstop. I can't really think of any other examples off the top of my head (Musial, I guess, but his games breakdown by position is incomplete on BBREF).
There are some differences between the three, however. Banks was only really ERNIE BANKS as an SS. His best seasons are all from that position, and he played out the (long) string at 1B. A-rod of course had some great seasons at SS but also has had his two best offensive seasons at 3B, as well as two of his three MVPs.
Similarly, Carew won 5 of his 7 batting titles at 2B, although his MVP-winning most famous season was at 1B.
The big thing, I think, is that Banks was a one-team player, and Carew had all his big seasons and the bulk of his games played on the Twins, only going to the Angels as a still-productive but aging first-baseman. Their image, so to speak, was made at their original positions with their original teams, and the shuffling around they did later on didn't impact their historical image as much. A-rod had his SS years split between Seattle and Texas, and although he's probably always been among the top three names in baseball since he arrived, he's basically been number 1 since he became a Yankee. He now has more games played as a Yankee than either other team, and should far surpass both combined by the time he's through. Which all together means that he might be most remembered as a Yankee, which would then make him remembered historically more as a third-baseman than as a shortstop. Which I think would be a shame.
Depends on the methodology. If you think games played at SS are an important part of ranking the greatest shortstops, it's not hard to put Jeter ahead of Vaughan, who had less than 1500 games at SS. With Ripken, it's more that his post age-30 career (96 OPS+) didn't match his earlier years, while Jeter hasn't shown many signs of decline and has a chance to best all of Cal's last 10 seasons if he plays as long.
Beckett is feared and he pitches to the score.
Only if the value of his third base play is significantly greater than what he compiled at short. I don't see it happening.
That's because he never would have made it to the HOF based solely on his play at first, but he most likely would still have been enshrined if Banks had retired after 1961.
I guess that depends on how he comes back in 2010. If he wasn't the best pitcher in baseball over the 2006-2008 time period, he was at least top 3. If he produces anything like those 3 seasons in 2010, the man is gonna get paid, with a discount for age of course.
It looks like a pretty safe bet that he'll end up with significantly more games at 3B than SS, unless he blows out his shoulder or something, forcing a move to 1B. That may not make him more valuable at 3B, but it will probably have a pretty big bearing on how he goes down in the history books.
Jack Rice!
Or Jim Morris.
But now, wouldn't sound like such an absurd comment now. Who knew, Steve Philips, prognosticator! Scary.
How many pitchers have thrown as many or close to as many innings as Beckett over the past three years with close to the same or better numbers than Beckett (587 innings, 126 ERA+)?
I'll save you the trouble - fifteen pitchers have thrown 550 innings with a 120 ERA+ since 2007. Beckett is 12th of 15 in ERA+ and 10th of 15 in innings. Add in maybe a few more guys who would be on this list except they didn't meet the innings number because they were in the minors in 2007 or 08 (Jon Lester and Cliff Lee come to mind) - so Beckett likely falls in the bottom half of the top 30 starters.
It's also worth noting that since Beckett arrived in Boston and supposedly achieved "ace-dom," his ERA is 4.05. That's a tick or two better than the league average, but the numbers simply don't rise to the level of Beckett's reputation.
Of course, this analysis weights his 2006, the worst season of his career by far, equal to the last three. Beckett is one of the top 20 starters in baseball - is his reputation really any greater than that?
Bill James (and, I believe, the HOM) ranked Pete Rose as a right fielder, even though he played more games at each of 4 other positions.
In terms of value, A-Rod has 61.0 WAR as a shortstop, 38.0 as a third baseman.
Rose is a pretty atypical case. He bounced around the field so much that he didn't even log 1000 games at a single position. That won't be the case for A-Rod.
And there is a reasonable chance that he accumulates 20 more WAR in his career, making that balance even, but with a notable majority of atbats at 3B.
Which is the bottom line for me.
I can't say what history will say, but it won't be accurate to describe him as more third baseman than shortstop years from now.
If they're both roughly equal when he retires, the fact that he accumulated 60-something WAR as a third baseman with many more PA mean that his hot-corner play wasn't as valuable as his play at short?
I think it's worth noting that Josh Beckett faces the Yankees a lot more than a normal top 30 pitcher. That 4.05 ERA during his time with the Red Sox is hampered by 106 innings of 5.33 ball against the Yankees. Perhaps it may be unreasonable to expect a top 30 pitcher to dominate the Yankees every time out. Beckett is still 9-5 against them, though, and of course there's the 2003 World Series.
Of course you could argue that if Beckett is as great as his reputation, he should be beating the Yankees with regularity, like Halladay did during his time in the AL East. But I think the strength of Beckett's competition should play a role when comparing him to the other good/great pitchers of his era.
That sounds about right - good enough to be a #1 pitcher for many teams, but probably not good enough to be the #1 pitcher for a contender unless they have either a really good lineup or a deep rotation and bullpen or some combination of the two. Is he the best starter the Red Sox will have next year, based on established value? That's a tricky one, because Lester, Beckett and Lackey are all about the same there - Lester's been the best of the three each of the last two seasons, but he didn't pitch much in 2007.
Maybe stat-geek analysis will dominate in the future, but I don't think it really goes this way in how the "world" views a player. If his WAR is roughly equal between the positions but he has many more years, PAs, rings, New York time, etc. as a 3Bman, he'll go down as a 3Bman.
There's also that he'll have an uninterrupted stretch at 3B in NYC, whereas his shortstop time is divided between Seattle and Texas.
To do this, you also need to give no war credit, in that Vaughan missed his age 32-34 seasons during WWII. Exactly how much war credit is the open question, as he was a productive starter in '43 (149 games, 126 OPS+) and a productive backup when he returned (64 games, 133 OPS+), but there's definitely at least some in there.
You give him even 300 games across the three years, and he and Jeter are neck-and-neck in GP.
The question then becomes whether you think Vaughan was sitting out due to patriotism (farming for the war effort) or due to Leo the Lip. Probably a little of both.
Depends upon what you mean. 60 WAR is 60 WAR, so in that sense he would have provided just as much value at each. He would have a more purely distilled value at SS, though, so on a rate-basis he'd be more valuable at SS. However, I think an additional 20 WAR is a bit of a conservative estimate; he could potentially top that in the next 4 or 5 years, and his contract runs for 8. But that's not really my point; I'm merely talking about how "he goes down in history." I think bunyon says it well:
A-Rod will likely go into the HOF as a Yankee, and will be remembered by most as a Yankee, a team for which he was and will be exclusively a 3B (barring a move due to injury). If he plays his whole contract at 3B, he'll have been the Yankees' 3B for 14 years vs. 8 full years as a SS for teams he's less associated with.
My money is on Lester. Lackey, FWIW, is also in that group of 15 pitchers with 550 innings/120 ERA+ since 2007.
Didn't Vaughan sit out those years due to a contract dispute/clash of personalities with Durocher? If so, I don't see that he should get any war credit, though some people give credit for time missed during labor disputes during the period of the reserve clause.
To the best of my understanding, he never said as much, but multiple sources have indicated that was the reason he went back to his ranch. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that he returned the year that Durocher was suspended.
I think the main thing is that lot of people use the term #1 starter to mean one of the top 10 or so starting pitchers in the majors, rather than one of the top 30.
Let's perform an experiment:
I say "Ernie Banks". What do you think of? What do </i>most</i> people think of?
Let's play two.
I'm really not sure with ARod. I'm even less sure what people will think 15 years from now when he's had more time at 3B than at SS, but he's also been retired for a while. I think it will depend a lot on where you live and how old you are. It's not like Banks where he was really a dramatically better player when he played shortstop.
And by the time Cal was Jeter's age, he'd moved off short (or was in the process of doing so), and had already delivered a sub-100 OPS+ season three times. Something Jeter has yet to do.
And then there's the baserunning: 305 of 385 steals for Jeter and 36 of 75 for Ripken.
That's a lot of ground for Ripken to make up with defense.
I can see putting Jeter behind Vaughn a lot easier. Third best shortstop of all time, and the greatest shortstop in 50 years? That'll do.
A side point in Ripken's favor is that his best seasons were significantly better than Jeter's best.
I was told he has the "guts of a burglar"...like 153 times to be exact.
When you measure greatness average is a better baseline than replacement level, I don't want to give them credit for hanging on as below average player. Even if you go by replacement level, Jeter trailing by just 6 WAR when he has played 850 games less is not really a data point in Ripken's favor.
As for Beckett, a couple years ago, he was talked about like a top-5 MLB pitcher because of teh fear, but was actually more like top 30-40. But in the past couple years, he's been healthy and very good while crapping out in the postseason, bringing his reputation and actual value into equilibrium, right around top 15-20.
ARod already has a serious hip condition (though it's in the best shape of its life!) You can add in that 3B tend not to age well (I was gonna add some actual facts on 3B aged 34 or older but P-I is not behaving this morning). Given the Yanks' investment in money and years, they have every reason to be conservative with his health. His days at 3B are numbered, I wouldn't be surprised if this is his last full-time season there.
As I noted in my earlier post, Durocher was probably a motivating factor behind his decision - but he DID go to work in a vital wartime industry (i.e. farming).
If he'd enlisted to get away from Leo, we'd still give him credit for that, wouldn't we? It's an interesting question.
I'd be shocked if that was his last season there. He's not in DH mode for at least another two years.
Interestingly, though I don't think Jeter is in Rod's class as a player, his highlight reel will be significantly more impressive. A lot of that is defensive; while offense is better encapsulated in the numbers, I don't think it shows as well in a ten-second bit of B-roll.
Honestly, the first thing that jumped to my head was as a 1B, but I will definitely concede that puts me in the minority. I mostly think of him that way because I distinctly remember being shocked by how much 1B he'd played in his career, when I'd always thought of him as just a SS.
I don't really think hypothetical-60+-WAR-as-a-3B A-Rod (or even now A-Rod) and Banks are comparable. Banks hung around at 1B for a goodly bit, but look at the WAR (AROM's) breakdown:
1953-1961 (his SS years): 55.7
1962-1971 (his 1B years): 8.7
No contest there.
This is both true, and sort of strangely funny, given that Jeter's value mainly lies in his ability to hit better than almost any other SS.
Incorrect.
I don't see why you wouldn't give Jeter credit. I wouldn't dock Ripken or anything, but its another 637 PAs against MLB competition in non-exhibition games. That's a whole season worth of stats, how could you not count it at least as much as any other season's worth of offensive numbers when evaluating the greatness of a ball player's career?
And his defensive advantage is as a result of him getting to stay at SS while ARod was moved.
If I had to guess, I would say A-rod had tops 2-3 years left at SS when he came over to the Yanks. He was already getting bulkier and his defense fell off a cliff around 06. Jeter might have cost A-rod the SS HR crown, but I think its clear that Jeter has been able to stay at SS longer than A-rod would have if he hadn't been traded to the Yanks.
Of course, maybe if A-rod stays at short he takes care of his body in a different way that allows him to hang at SS. No way to know that though.
That wasn't really my point. The original post said "Jeter has an extra year's worth of post-season performance to his credit at a .313/.383/.479 line."
I wouldn't give Jeter an extra year's worth of credit, because he only has that extra year because of what his team did. This is why official career totals don't include these numbers.
I'd give him the credit for performing well in the postseason, though I wouldn't value that extremely highly because a) he was basically the same in the postseason as the regular season, which is about what you'd expect and b) that's what most guys do if given enough opportunity (and c) I hate teh bad Yankee Jeter! :)
By an amusing coincidence, Jeter is at exactly 68.7 AROM WAR! AROM has him at -121 runs fielding, but +93 for baserunning, GIDP and ROE. The rest of the difference is slight differences in offensive assessment and SS replacement level. Of course, TZ is the system most sympathetic to his fielding...
UZR on Fangraphs has Jeter at 11 runs better from 02-09 than TZ does. 17 runs better if you count AROM's TZ and ifDP for that time period.
Beckett's version would be?
So in the HOM A-Rod goes in with a Yankee Cap and as a SS, even though he hardly played SS for the Yankees?
At this point, he will wear a Seattle cap when he's inducted.
As for his position, this is how it will be presented: SS/3B
At the time he's eligible, you most likely will be correct, Al.
I'd be shocked if that was his last season there. He's not in DH mode for at least another two years.
Ya never know. UZR (fangraphs) had him at -8.5 last year (in limited time) and -21 over the last 4 years and TZ is the same (and didn't like him in 2005 either) so it appears he's already a below-average defensive 3B. The last two seasons he's made just 244 starts at 3B -- not bad but not what you want to see out of a guy signed for another 8/$206 plus the wacky incentives and signing bonus that I'm too lazy to figure out.
If AROD hits the DL for a month again this season, the Yanks would be foolish to see him as a 3B for much longer because of how much they have invested. Given the hip condition, there's no reason to think his defense won't continue to slide and the injury risk goes up. While he might still have general defensive value, a move to 1B is out (barring Tex injury) and a move to LF doesn't sound too hip-friendly to me (but what do I know). And of course they have only a 1-year commitment to their DH.
The obvious comps would be Molitor (move to DH/1B at 32, DH only at 36), Edgar (DH at 32) and Brett's move to 1B (at 34). All pretty athletic (but probably not as athletic as ARod), all with worse injury histories than ARod (though Brett is fairly similar), but also none with 8 years and untold millions left on the contract.
Anyway, if he makes 150 starts at 3B with decent defense, then obviously he'll be there again in 2011. If he makes 120-130 starts and is 10 runs below average again ... why put him there again in 2011? It all comes down to the hip.
Alex Rodriguez has played 101 more regular season games as a Yankee than he did as a Mariner, with 400 more PA, 15 more points of OPS+, and almost as many SB at a better success rate. I have no doubt that the positional adjustment and the vastly superior defense put his value as a Mariner ahead of his value as a Yankee, but there is absolutely no doubt that there will be an interlocking NY on the cap on his HOF plaque.
And Ernie Banks most definitely would not have been inducted into the HOF had he retired after the 1961 season.
Well he wouldn't have even been eligible.
Keith Law
He might not have been a first-ballot selection, but he would have made it eventually.
If A-Rod has comparable valuable as a Yankee as he did with the Mariners when he retires, then most likely I would give him a Yankee HoM cap due to his WS appearance.
Games don't mean anything to me when I give out caps. How much a player contributes to his team's success does, however.
Heh. We promise you that we will steel our backbone and place him on only one of those lists when the time comes for that. :-)
EDIT: Did Banks have some arm injury at the end of 1961 or something?
Wow. Really? I know I'm not much of a stat-geek, just an adoring groupie, but that surprises me. If a guy plays twice as many years with one team as another I don't think it would ever occur to me to think of him as primarily a member of the latter team. I'm assuming here, of course, that A-Rod plays out his contract.
Let's use Ernie Banks again: if he had been traded to another team after 1961 but had the same career post-shortstop, would you really give him the cap of the later team? I couldn't see it. Even though he played almost the same amount of games after 1961, the value is not close to what he achieved before that. He would still be a Cubbie by a mile. In fact, he could have played a few more seasons after 1961 at the level of play he had as a first baseman and it still wouldn't be close.
So John Olerud would go in as a Met?
Nah. He's a Blue Jay all the way.
1962-1971 (his 1B years): 8.7
I agree that that is a SS. And even if the latter were with another team, I'd agree he was a Cub.
But, for A-Rod, if it ends up like this:
Seattle 1994-2000, 820 G, SS
Texas 2001-2003, 480 G, SS
NYY, 2004-2017, 2100 G, 3B/1B/DH
LAA, 2018, 145 G, DH
then he's a Yankee and he's a 3Bman (if he's any one particular position).
If A-Rod has enough value accrued as a Yankee and as a third baseman by the time he retires, then I would agree with you. Since he'll only be 34 this year, it's certainly possible that he may achieve both "goals." I wouldn't bet any money on it at the present time, however.
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