Shoot, we really got ripped off by the Phillies.

Not really. Freddy Garcia just doesn't have very much trade value.

That said, Gillick seems to be actually building a rotation to go with his offense. It won't be a great rotation, nor probably even a really good one. But it's a step forward over chaos and Ryan Madson, backed by a chaotic bullpen and . . . Ryan Madson.

Absolutely. But we're going to have a terrible bottom of the order unless Abraham Nunez 2007 plays like Abraham Nunez 2005, Aaron Rowand 2007 plays like Aaron Rowand 2004, and Carlos Ruiz figures out how to hit major-league pitchers.

It wouldn't have been close to fair, whatever WARP says. A year of Vernon Wells is more valuable than a year of Freddy Garcia.

That's the greatest argument of all time.

All thinks being equal, it's probably one win in favour of Chicago, but all things aren't equal. Given Toronto's other options in the rotation (crap), it would still be a good deal for the Jays.

Look, can't we just call it a mulligan and the Jays trade Wells to the Brewers for Hall and David Bush and get it over with?

That's the greatest argument of all time.

I don't need an argument here. If WARP says that Freddy Garcia and Vernon Wells have equivalent value, there's something drastically wrong with WARP.

Given Toronto's other options in the rotation (crap), it would still be a good deal for the Jays.

It would be an awful deal for Toronto. You can't just look at their options on hand. They have other options they could acquire instead of Garcia. I'm with JRE. To paraphrase Dickens, if WARP equates Garcia and Vernon Wells, then WARP is an ass.

If WARP says that Freddy Garcia and Vernon Wells have equivalent value, there's something drastically wrong with WARP.

IIRC, Wells fared poorly on BPro's defensive number for last year. That's probably why he and Freddy are close in WARP from 2006.

Crispix, if Rowand, Helms and the catching duo hit around league average (which is certainly possible), Utley, Howard, ROllins, and Burrell will be enough offense to keep the Phils in the top two in NL runs scored. Nunez won't get more than 175 ABs.

IIRC, Wells fared poorly on BPro's defensive number for last year. That's probably why he and Freddy are close in WARP from 2006.

Vernon Wells would have to be Greg Luzinski bad out there before I even thought about comparing him to Freddy Garcia. Even then, I'd still think it was a bad trade for the Jays.

OK, I'm convinced that I should be more optimistic about Wes Helms. I thought of him as a has-been who was likely to be a coach in a couple years, but I think I'm biased by his superficial similarity to Warren Morris.

If WARP says that Freddy Garcia and Vernon Wells have equivalent value, there's something drastically wrong with WARP.

I'm not sure where the original argument came from, but WARP3 says that Wells beat Garcia 8.0 - 5.3 in 2006.

It's not so much Helms, just that a replacement level player represents a two win upgrade over Nunez, and Helms should be able to do better than that.

Is there a projection for Garcia in CBP yet?

Not really. Freddy Garcia just doesn't have very much trade value.

I doubt this. And if he didn't, the Sox should have held onto him and traded Garland.

Is there a projection for Garcia in CBP yet?

Yeah. "Boom."

Not really. Freddy Garcia just doesn't have very much trade value.

I doubt this. And if he didn't, the Sox should have held onto him and traded Garland.

I thought Kenny W was getting Milledge and Pelfrey for Freddy, and that was just a start.

Given their needs next year, the Sox would've been better off trading Freddy for Eric Byrnes.

I doubt this. And if he didn't, the Sox should have held onto him and traded Garland.

No way. Garland might be the best pitcher the Sox have right now (not that that's saying a whole heck of a lot at this point). If they hold onto anyone, it should be Garland.

I'm really enjoying the entertaining wailing and gnashing of teeth going on over at WSI, by the way.

If WARP says that Freddy Garcia and Vernon Wells have equivalent value, there's something drastically wrong with WARP.

I'm not sure where the original argument came from, but WARP3 says that Wells beat Garcia 8.0 - 5.3 in 2006.

You should be using WARP1 for same-season comparisons... Wells was 6.2 this year, but 4.9 in '05. Garcia was still 5.3 this year, but 6.3 in '05. Which is another way of saying Garcia is more than capable of being more valuable.

It's not just WARP. Wells was 13 Win Shares Above Bench this year, compared to 9 WSAB for Garcia (or about 1 win). But things were flip-flopped in '05 with Garcia at 12 WSAB, and Wells only 9 WSAB.

IIRC, Wells fared poorly on BPro's defensive number for last year. That's probably why he and Freddy are close in WARP from 2006.

Vernon Wells would have to be Greg Luzinski bad out there before I even thought about comparing him to Freddy Garcia. Even then, I'd still think it was a bad trade for the Jays.

Wells was nothing special on defense according to Pinto's Probablistic Model of Range.

Wells is a world of talent, and my gut says he's going to go all Adrian Beltre '05 this year, but he's also capable of a sub-.330 OBP and sub-.470 SLG.

"my gut says he's going to go all Adrian Beltre '05 this year, but he's also capable of a sub-.330 OBP and sub-.470 SLG."

Isn't this the same thing?

Given their needs next year, the Sox would've been better off trading Freddy for Eric Byrnes.

I realise that you're just stirring the pot here, but Eric Byrnes sucks. I wouldn't trade anyone for him.

Well, maybe Scott Podsednik.

"my gut says he's going to go all Adrian Beltre '05 this year, but he's also capable of a sub-.330 OBP and sub-.470 SLG."

Isn't this the same thing?

Ha. That might be my greatest typo.

Well, Eric Byrnes would've been the 2nd best White Sox outfielder last year. He probably will be better than any White Sox outfielder not named Dye next year as well.

Well, Eric Byrnes would've been the 2nd best White Sox outfielder last year. He probably will be better than any White Sox outfielder not named Dye next year as well.

The White Sox have better in-house options than Byrnes. I'd rather see Jerry Owens, Ryan Sweeney, christ, even Rob Mackowiak than Byrnes.

You should be using WARP1 for same-season comparisons... Wells was 6.2 this year, but 4.9 in '05. Garcia was still 5.3 this year, but 6.3 in '05. Which is another way of saying Garcia is more than capable of being more valuable.

I thought the WARP2 and 3 adjustments were for schedule length and level of competition. Wells and Garcia both played in the American League. Why the heck would their WARP3 adjustments be different?

And even in WARP1, Garcia's been better once in 4 years, and over those four years Wells has been a combined 3.9 wins better - i.e., he's a win better per year. Wells is also younger, so I'm sure he projects at least one win better, probably more.

Is there no "Meche to Royals" thread?

I doubt this. And if he didn't, the Sox should have held onto him and traded Garland.

With Reinsdorf's policy of no contracts longer than three years for pitchers, there's no way they would've been able to keep Garcia.

Why the heck would their WARP3 adjustments be different?

Because it's not a simple linear adjustment for both pitchers and batters.

Given the Jays have better-than-replacement-value bats ready to fill out the outfield, but arguably only sub-replacement-level arms in the rotation behind Halladay and Burnett, the Jays could have made this deal and improved on the season.

Because it's not a simple linear adjustment for both pitchers and batters.

Thanks. I just looked at WARP3 because it's at the end of the column and I really thought they'd all give the same answer, not because I thought WARP3 was better.

And I don't know enough about the Blue Jays to agree or disagree with you, but I do agree with the general proposition that in evaluating a trade you need to evaluate the actual replacements on the teams involved, not mythical "freely available talent."

The trades are good, but that's because of what happened after them.

Matter of opinion. But I will say this: Thome + $ > anything the Sox would've thrown the Phillies' way. The Phils' weren't looking for a deal, they wanted to dump salary and make room for future MVP lock Howard. Maybe that's not a fair way to judge acumen, but it was to the Sox' advantage all the way, considered in itself.

Shoot, we really got ripped off by the Phillies.

With the Garcia trade, the Sox were looking to dump some salary and make room for McCarthy. They only had one more year of Garcia, so they didn't trade away the rest of his career, they just traded away his '07 (and the chance to re-sign him early, like they did back in '04). It's not that bad.

True fleecings are few and far between when judged as of the day of the trade. Which reminds me of one I forgot:

David Wells for Mike "Glue Factory" Sirotka and a sack of broken lightbulbs

But I will say this: Thome + $ > anything the Sox would've thrown the Phillies' way.

Erm...

No comment.

Well, I still say that with Lilly and Meche off the market, one year of Garcia should have fetched more, unless there really was no demand for him. It just doesn't make sense, but I must assume this was the best offer out there. Which really does suggest that there wasn't any demand for Garcia. Which is odd, considering that the Mets and Rangers need pitching, and the Phillies really don't.

Very strange deal. A fair deal, but fair won't cut it when trading pitching. I guess there really wasn't a market for Garcia. Strange.

I'm not complaining. This is better than Byrnes, but still...Gavin Floyd and the return of Gio Gonzalez after a somewhat down year? After giving up Reed, Morse and Olivo at the height of their values to get Garcia?

If I were in the White Sox FO, I'd use the Thome, Vazquez and Garcia trades as templates for any team wishing to trade with the organization. When you give something up, you've got to be able to recoup that investment. In each of those 3 for 1 trades, a valuable major league piece and a good prospect, along with a player of lesser value went from the Sox to the other organization. In this case, we've got the good prospect (Gonzalez) and the lesser value (Floyd). Where's the valuable major league piece? Where's El Duque, Aaron Rowand or Miguel Olivo? Not that any of these were great shakes, but they're what's missing from this deal. Getting Rowand back would have made this a pretty good trade for the Sox. Shane Victorino would have made it great.

I guess I just don't understand A) Why there was no demand for Freddy Garcia or B) If there was demand, while Williams accepted such an inferior offer. I'll just have to wait and see whether A or B is the case.

I guess I just don't understand A) Why there was no demand for Freddy Garcia

He's only under contract for one year; he's not signed for significantly below market rate; he's clearly not the same pitcher he was even two years ago; he had stretches where he was absolutely atrocious last year. Assuming the Phillies are picking up all of Garcia's contract (and I haven't heard anything to the contrary); Williams got a fine return.

Garcia was clearly the least valuable of the Sox' five starters.

Garcia was clearly the least valuable of the Sox' five starters.

But this was the market for him? The Mets wouldn't match this? The Rangers?

The deal is so strange, too. We reacquire a player we gave up a year ago. That's rare in and of itself, but he didn't improve his stock at all in that time. What has Gio Gonzalez done in the last year to make him more valuable to the Sox and less to the Phillies?

I think Williams must really like Floyd, and that he picked this offer over ones from the Rangers and the Mets, in large part because of Floyd. Williams' intuition has been right in the past--Contreras and Thornton come to mind--but was this really necessary? Why trade Garcia now, if this was the best offer? Wait and see if something else pops up. It's not like there are any other starters available for trade.

But this was the market for him? The Mets wouldn't match this? The Rangers?

I don't see why they should. The Rangers aren't giving up Danks for Garcia, and the Mets aren't giving up Milledge or Pelfrey or Heilman, and White Sox fans who thought that Freddy Garcia would fetch something like that were delusional.

Wow, you WS guys really wring your hands over these moves. Almost as bad as Mets and Other Sox fans. :)
Me, as a Phillies fan, I'm just glad Gillick did a move that looks like it could be pay off, even if only for a year. Sorry, Wes Helms and Adam Eaton coming in, Wolf, Lieberthal and Dellucci going out did not seem like a net plus to me.

I don't see why they should. The Rangers aren't giving up Danks for Garcia, and the Mets aren't giving up Milledge or Pelfrey or Heilman, and White Sox fans who thought that Freddy Garcia would fetch something like that were delusional.

Which was my basic point about 2 weeks ago in another White Sox thread here on primer. Just sayin'

"White Sox fans who thought that Freddy Garcia would fetch something like that were delusional."

Who, exactly, are these White Sox fans?

Garcia at $10 million + two decent pitching prospects seems just about right. Which, presumably, is why Williams did the deal.

"Which was my basic point about 2 weeks ago in another White Sox thread here on primer. Just sayin'"

God, Levski, you are soooo smart. Arizona should make you their GM. I bet YOU wouldn't have given away Dan Uggla for nothing.

"Wait and see if something else pops up. It's not like there are any other starters available for trade."

I think the timing is the big mystery. Wouldn't Garcia be worth more down the line, when teams are scrambling to fill their rotations, and have perhaps lost out in other deals? Two reasons I can think of to do a deal now:

1. Williams wants certainty for the White Sox sooner rather than later. Williams as the anti-Theo, who doesn't want to be caught with his pants down and no backup plan (or pair of pants).

2. Williams wants to use the Garcia savings ($9 million) sooner rather than later.

As I think I said way upthread, for me, the big question is what Williams does with the $9 million. If he just uses it for Crede and McDougal, I'm somewhat disappointed. I'm hoping this is the opening step.

"What has Gio Gonzalez done in the last year to make him more valuable to the Sox and less to the Phillies?"

Nothing. The White Sox have always liked Gonzalez, and I get the sense (from what Don Cooper said on ESPN Radio this morning) that the team didn't want to part with him in the Thome trade. Now, because Gonzalez had a rough year as a very young player in AA, they had the opportunity to get him back.

Which was my basic point about 2 weeks ago in another White Sox thread here on primer. Just sayin'

Not really.

You said the Sox should be happy to get Eric Byrnes in return for Garcia. Gonzalez is still one of the better pitching prospects in the minors (not at Pelfrey's level, but in that next tier), but I don't think he's a whole lot worse than Danks. And apparently people still love Floyd's arm, although the numbers quite obviously haven't been there.

This is a much better then some of the ideas I saw other people tossing around, like Byrnes or Vizquel.

I know it sounds like I'm propping up the package the Sox got back... but I also understand that Floyd and Gonzalez could both flame out. Floyd hasn't pitched well for the better part of two years and Gio has some injury concerns if only due to his small frame.

I guess you could say I'm cautiously optimistic.

JRE,

Whay are you down on Garcia so much? The guy consistently puts up better than league average WHIP. He doesn't miss starts, decent K/BB ratio, gives you 7+ innings most time out, saving your bullpen. That's a solid #2 starter, #3 at worst. His numbers have been very consistent 3 years running.

I think this is an good deal for the White Sox, just not for 2007. Vernon Wells would be a good deal for 2007 and that's all. Kenny Williams' off-season transactions are usually to cover himself for the next 2-3 years.

Whay are you down on Garcia so much?

I'm not really down on him; I wouldn't have been upset had he been part of the 2007 rotation. I was just pointing out how his trade value isn't what some people made it out to be, and that the White Sox got a fine return for him.

It's not like the Phillies aren't taking on any risk here, and even if he does pitch well, his price tag should be very high next winter.

I should add, once more, that I think the trade was fair, but I would have liked the Sox to fill one more hole when trading a "name" guy like Garcia, who actually might be really good in the NL next year. Picking up Rowand would be a longshot, but how about gettting Castro back? That way KW could focus all his efforts onto reacquiring Haigwood, and reassembling all the lefties we lost in 2005.

Shame we just lost Jay Marshall, though, not that he's anything special. I guess I know who KW will be trading for next year.