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Thursday, February 19, 2009

Freakonomics Blog: When a Batter Is Hit by a Pitch, What’s the Next Batter Thinking?

“When a good man is hurt all who would be called good must suffer with him.”
-Euripides

But after July 26, his after-seeing-Utley-hit stats plummeted: in 53 at-bats, he hit .184 and had an OBP of .327.

It is possible that after July 26, Howard updated his assumptions about pitchers who had just hit Utley and this changed his success at the plate. And it is possible (but I wouldn’t want to tell him) that he became afraid of the ball and that accounts for his worse at-bats.

But it is also possible that his feelings of empathy got in the way.

Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 19, 2009 at 07:23 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: phillies, projections

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1. Tuque

Posted: February 19, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3081312)

in 53 at-bats

I think that's your real culprit.

2. Tripon Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3081326)

Chase Utley was hit by a pitch 53 times?

3. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3081327)

Chase Utley sometimes refuses first. He's kind of like Chuck Norris.

4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3081329)

Is this guy serious?

5. Dock Ellis on Acid

Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3081330)

HO SNAP. Is he basically calling Ryan Howard a #####?

6. PreservedFish Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:17 PM (#3081334)

Jesus god this is stupid

7. Nasty Nate Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:17 PM (#3081335)

Chase Utley was hit by a pitch 53 times?

he's counting all AB's in the game after the HBP, not just the immediate one. ...and Utley does get hit a lot.

8. Tripon Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3081340)

he's counting all AB's in the game after the HBP, not just the immediate one. ...and Utley does get hit a lot.

That seems dumb, is he also counting at bats against relief pitchers?

9. PreservedFish Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3081349)

What is funny is that as amateur as the statistics stuff is, it would appear that the neurology stuff is even more of a joke.

10. Tuque

Posted: February 19, 2009 at 08:37 PM (#3081353)

Why is this limited to Chase Utley? Is Utley the Ann Dunham to Howard's King Kong?

11. Willie Mayspedes Posted: February 19, 2009 at 09:23 PM (#3081386)

If he'd done a complete analysis to see if hitters as a whole perform differently after a player on their team (or themself) gets hit it would be more interesting. Not that I'd take the time to do that but it would be cool.

12. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: February 19, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3081390)

From the New York Times, August 1920:

When play was resumed, Harry Lunte was on first base in place of Chapman. Tris Speaker forced him at second and Elmer Smith struck out. Gardner slammed a hot bounder down the first base line which Wally Pipp knocked down but he did not recover in time to get the runner. Steve O'Neill then slashed a single to right which scored Speaker.

Speaker's run, deriving from Chapman getting killed, was the margin of victory in the game.

13. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: February 19, 2009 at 09:31 PM (#3081391)

And yes, that last post was indeed in le dernier mauvais goût :)

14. The Good Face Posted: February 19, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3081396)

When a Batter Is Hit by a Pitch, What's the Next Batter Thinking?

"Man, that chick on the 3B line has got an enormous rack..."

15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 19, 2009 at 09:40 PM (#3081398)

The Freakonomics guys and baseball go together like brake fluid and tabasco sauce. Watching them crap themselves trying to dis the A's a few years ago was embarrassing.

16. Halofan Posted: February 19, 2009 at 10:04 PM (#3081427)

And your preferred method of dissing the A's would be...???

17. Greg (U)K Posted: February 19, 2009 at 10:18 PM (#3081444)

Making light of their wives' eating disorders?

18. Tango Posted: February 19, 2009 at 10:51 PM (#3081488)

Did Colin's article get posted here?

He uses nine years of data, of all MLB hit batters. For you non-RTFA:

...but assume a league average batter faces a league average pitcher (using 2008 numbers, an OBP of .333). If a batter has been hit previously in the inning, the expected OBP for that plate appearance is .334. Not a huge effect. Apparently the effect of being fired up is an extra walk/base hit every thousand plate appearances.

But what of the hit batsman himself? ...Psychologically, it makes sense that the batter would be more likely to be scared if he were facing the same pitcher, rather than a new one, and the memory will be freshest on the same day. The effect was not significant, but favored the pitcher, and dropped the batter to a .326 expected OBP.

19. Ron Johnson Posted: February 19, 2009 at 10:51 PM (#3081489)

If he'd done a complete analysis to see if hitters as a whole perform differently after a player on their team (or themself) gets hit it would be more interesting.

There was an old Stats Scoreboard that had a study of all PAs after a home run. That was pretty interesting. From memory, HBP was up, Ks way up, home runs way up.

20. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 19, 2009 at 11:04 PM (#3081508)

i think it was, tango.

21. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 19, 2009 at 11:23 PM (#3081528)

But what of the hit batsman himself? ...Psychologically, it makes sense that the batter would be more likely to be scared if he were facing the same pitcher, rather than a new one, and the memory will be freshest on the same day. The effect was not significant, but favored the pitcher, and dropped the batter to a .326 expected OBP.

Couldn't this have everything to do with the batter being at less than 100% health in his following PAs? I know my swing gets a little blurry post-undiagnosed concussion...

22. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: February 19, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3081539)

Should point out that Pizza Cutter, not me, wrote that HBP piece. It's the first thing I thought of when I saw this, as well. I'll reserve thoughts on the Freakonomics piece until I read it; I liked the book, but that doesn't mean they're good sabermetricians.

23. Repoz

Posted: February 19, 2009 at 11:38 PM (#3081544)

Watching them crap themselves trying to dis the A's a few years ago was embarrassing.

Didn't Levitt come on here and defend himself?

24. Tango Posted: February 20, 2009 at 12:19 AM (#3081570)

No, pitchers do worse the second and third time through the order. It's in The Book somewhere. Check Amazon's Look Inside. Pizza Cutter found similar results.

And yes, Pizza, not Colin, wrote that.

25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 20, 2009 at 12:29 AM (#3081581)

"Didn't Levitt come on here and defend himself?"

There was a thread; not sure whether Levitt showed up or not.

26. studes Posted: February 20, 2009 at 02:54 AM (#3081670)

This was also covered pretty well in the THT Annual by John Walsh, but looking at it from the point of view of the batter coming up to bat after the HBP.

27. studes Posted: February 20, 2009 at 03:11 AM (#3081676)

My bad -- it was actually about intentional walks. Carry on.

28. Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott) Posted: February 20, 2009 at 04:02 AM (#3081705)

Levitt is an idiot. A genius, but a lazy, lazy researcher and a whore for publicity. Dubner is a journalist talking about something he doesn't understand.

29. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: February 20, 2009 at 04:27 AM (#3081713)

Dang. I've even read The Book, but I guess I just misremembered the key word. "Worse" is a lot like "Better", right?

"Define 'rarely.'"
"Frequently."

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