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Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Great breakdown from Tim Dierkes.

Predicting Abreu’s contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player’s goals.  Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency.  Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance.  Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I’ve projected a three-year, $42MM contract.  Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won’t cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain.  $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu’s ceiling.  Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 16, 2013 at 11:50 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cuban baseball, free agents, jose abreu

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   1. Dale Sams Posted: October 16, 2013 at 12:14 PM (#4574356)
Offer Nap a QO. If he doesn't bite you get a draft pick and either Carp or Nava can play 1B for nearly min.

But I'm sure the Sox will overpay for beard grit.
   2. JRVJ Posted: October 16, 2013 at 12:16 PM (#4574360)
Abreu (and other loophole Cuban players) are unique in that they only cost money AND there's no limit to how much can be spent on them for international signing purposes (obviously if the Yankees sign him, his salary counts for salary cap purposes).

Seeing how much money there is in the game, I could see a team going hog wild for Abreu, with the express intent of bulking up their talent pool.

We'll see.
   3. John Northey Posted: October 16, 2013 at 12:39 PM (#4574380)
Cuba and Japan are the 'magic money pits' now. No compensation, and due to posting fees not counting against salary cap you get an even bigger boost there. It will be interesting to see what happens.
   4. The District Attorney Posted: October 16, 2013 at 01:22 PM (#4574422)
Yeah, I expect Abreu to go for a ton, because as discussed you get more for your buck, and because of the success of Cespedes and Puig (even though we've seen before that the latter logic can be misleading).

I hope the Mets at least make an offer, but I certainly don't expect them to end up with the player, since I think the bidding will get out of their range, and since they have three guys (Ike, Duda, Flores) who at least carry some hope to fill the position adequately. (Unlike the corner outfield situation.)

   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 16, 2013 at 01:46 PM (#4574444)
Abreu (and other loophole Cuban players) are unique in that they only cost money AND there's no limit to how much can be spent on them for international signing purposes (obviously if the Yankees sign him, his salary counts for salary cap purposes).



And because of risk, they're generally cheaper than regular free agents, and even with the age fuzziness, younger. Any smart team should be in on Cuban FAs.
   6. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: October 16, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4574612)
I'd be surprised if Napoli got a 3 year guaranteed deal, AVN doesn't go away. I'd expect if anything for him to get a single year with a fairly low base salary, but with a couple years of vesting options and lots of performance escalators.
   7. Long Time Listener, First Time Caller Posted: October 17, 2013 at 08:46 PM (#4576322)
Robothal reporting White Sox are expected to sign him at 6/68
   8. Dan Posted: October 17, 2013 at 09:26 PM (#4576370)
I'd be surprised if Napoli got a 3 year guaranteed deal, AVN doesn't go away. I'd expect if anything for him to get a single year with a fairly low base salary, but with a couple years of vesting options and lots of performance escalators.


I expect the Sox to give him a QO, and for him to accept it and be back for 1 year @ $14M.

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