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Thursday, April 20, 2017

Full Count » It doesn’t look like Hanley Ramirez will be using his first baseman’s glove all that much

Is this really a problem?

Jim Furtado Posted: April 20, 2017 at 11:33 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hanley ramirez, red sox

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   1. Jose is El Absurd Pollo Posted: April 20, 2017 at 11:45 AM (#5438887)
As long as Hanley hits like he did last year I'm not going to be bothered if he's a full time DH. Moreland is off to a great start but at some point he's going to slump. My dream scenario is that somewhere along the line Travis can come up and be the righty half of a platoon with him.
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: April 20, 2017 at 11:48 AM (#5438889)
Is this really a problem?

Nope.
   3. Mudpout Posted: April 20, 2017 at 01:24 PM (#5438991)
Not a problem, per se, in line with what most fans have been expecting. No complaints about his fielding last year, though, and I hope they're able to use him at 1st more often than they did Ortiz. As the article says, Ramirez at 1st opens up the possibility of getting DH atbats for Young. I think there'll be nights when Young-Ramirez is better than Moreland-Ramirez (or Bradley-Young-Ramirez is better than Young-Moreland-Ramirez).
   4. Jose is El Absurd Pollo Posted: April 20, 2017 at 01:30 PM (#5439007)
I'm a bit surprised that Young didn't get a look at first base in spring training. I think part of that is they weren't expecting Benintendi to be this good against lefties but still, get a little versatility in there.
   5. Textbook Editor Posted: April 20, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5439148)
My dream scenario is that somewhere along the line Travis can come up and be the righty half of a platoon with him.


Jose--who goes down to allow Travis to be the roster (in that scenario)?

Unrelated, but... At what point does the rip cord get pulled on Sandoval as a full-time 3B? 3 errors in 28 chances for Devers so far at AA isn't great, of course, but... neither is a ~.230 BA out of your 3B at the ML level...
   6. Jose is El Absurd Pollo Posted: April 20, 2017 at 04:25 PM (#5439196)
Hernandez would be the guy I would send down at that point. I like Marco but if Moreland is being exposed by lefties and you need to make the move you do it.

Interesting point about Panda yesterday from one of the Sox beat guys was that he is in the top 20 in exit velocity this year despite the low average. That explains the homers a bit and offers some hope going forward. I think it's a paper tiger because he's whiffing a lot more than usual. I think he's doing what Varitek did at the end of his career and just cheating heavily and if he makes contact hitting it hard in exchange for the strikeouts.

I don't know what you do about him. Devers is off to a very good start with the bat. I'd be shocked if the Sox see him as an option before the All Star break. I think if Sandoval can get the defense somewhere reasonable and hit .220 with power the Sox will struggle along and then look to make a deal (Todd Frazier?). With Porcello throwing grounders all over the place last night I wonder if we might see Holt get a start at third base next time he pitches.
   7. Jose is El Absurd Pollo Posted: April 20, 2017 at 04:27 PM (#5439198)
I guess I didn't really answer the question. I'd say Sandoval gets until Memorial Day or so to straighten out. Then we start looking at Holt/trade/Devers options probably in that order. Oh I forgot, Josh Rutledge started his rehab last night so he's probably back against lefties soon at least. It's depressing that that's good news but it is.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: April 20, 2017 at 04:35 PM (#5439208)
If and when someone else has to start at 3B, I think it would be out of the group of Holt/Hernandez/Rutledge instead of Devers (if it is someone currently with the organization).
   9. Walt Davis Posted: April 20, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5439292)
Some names in the top 20 avg EV (150 min contacts) from last year: Alvarez #6, Tyler Flowers #7, Ryan Zimmerman #10, Hosmer #11, Justin Bour #18, Bautista #19. Some of those guys would be good offense out of 3B of course but average EV doesn't correlate particularly well with production.

Albert Pujols 92.5 #21
DJ LeMahieu 92.5
Ryan Howard 92.5
Mike Trout 91.7 #39

Here's an interesting comp of Corey Seager (first) and Logan Morrison

Max EV 113 114
Avg EV 91.5 91.5
FB EV 94.8 96.3
GB EV 88.2 88.1
Max DS 449 438
Avg DS 228 219
Avg HR 399 406
95+ % 47 48
Brls/BBE 8.4 8.6
Brls/PA 5.5 5.0

K% 19.4 22.4
BB% 7.9 9.3
HR% 3.8 3.5
HR/FB 10.7 10.8

OPS+ 136 101

The slightly higher barrels/PA and HR/PA rates amount to about 3 and 2 extra over a full season. Morrison's higher K-rate is at least partially balanced by his higher BB rate.

BABIP 355 278

I've never had occasion to look at Logan Morrison's BABIP but it's been terrible throughout his career (273). This is doubly odd because he's got a league average LD, G/F and pop-up ratios. I assume the man is slow as death but his IF hit rate is barely worse than Seager's (.054 vs .063). He is a pull hitter but not ridiculously so and not particularly moreso than Seager so far.

So that comparison (yes, cherry-picked to some extent) turned out even stranger than I expected. These guys look like very similar hitters on almost any component we might use except BABIP. I can't see any obvious reason that Morrison's BABIP should be so abysmal.(I'm not sure I see a good reason why Seager's should be so high either.)
   10. Textbook Editor Posted: April 20, 2017 at 09:45 PM (#5439451)
#7--Thanks, Jose. I thought it might be a little less than that, time-wise, if the Ks continue. I figured Devers was a long-shot (I think a 40-man move would have to be made as well), especially if the defense remains shaky, unless they really think he can come up and knock the cover off the ball after 7/1.

A bigger question would be: if Sandoval is cooked, toast, etc... What are the real options there? I mean, outright release seems... like something they wouldn't do. And yet he's pretty useless as a bench player (can't PR him and in fact would have to PR for him even if he came in as a PH an got a hit in a key spot where you need 1 run) and unlike, say, Zito (who you could at least designate as the long man out of the pen), he really can't be hidden on the roster and trotted out only for blowouts... It all seems to be on a course to "not end well" (as the kids say).
   11. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: April 20, 2017 at 10:42 PM (#5439504)
A bigger question would be: if Sandoval is cooked, toast, etc... What are the real options there? I mean, outright release seems... like something they wouldn't do. And yet he's pretty useless as a bench player (can't PR him and in fact would have to PR for him even if he came in as a PH an got a hit in a key spot where you need 1 run) and unlike, say, Zito (who you could at least designate as the long man out of the pen), he really can't be hidden on the roster and trotted out only for blowouts... It all seems to be on a course to "not end well" (as the kids say).

Sandoval's performing offensively at about what his pre-season projections had him at. He's about a ~1 fWAR/600PA player. I'm not sure that he's that much worse than what you can reasonably expect out of Brock Holt and probably better than Hernandez or Rutledge. And Devers is probably still at least a year away. I don't see a compelling reason to release Sandoval at this point unless/until the Red Sox have a 3B who represents an actual expected upgrade and/or Sandoval demonstrates that he's significantly worse than a ~90 wRC+ hitter.

But agreed that he has limited usefulness as a bench player.
   12. Jose is El Absurd Pollo Posted: April 21, 2017 at 12:07 AM (#5439540)
The Sox have DFAd both Craig and Castillo. If it gets bad enough I wouldn't be shocked if they did the same with Panda. I'm sure they don't want to and that's why I think they will drag it out but I assume that the path would be;
Holt
Trade
Devers if all goes well

They shoved Sandoval to the bench to start last year for Shaw so I think they are willing to make the moves they have to make. But I think for a variety of reasons that he will have a longer rope than either of us would want.

Long term I can't imagine he spends all five years of his deal in a Red Sox uniform. Honestly if he does then that probably means he's at least been not terrible. Isn't it great to have the bar for our 100 million dollar player to be "not terrible.?"
   13. Textbook Editor Posted: April 21, 2017 at 01:35 AM (#5439557)
The Sox have DFAd both Craig and Castillo. If it gets bad enough I wouldn't be shocked if they did the same with Panda.


True, but because of service time, both Craig and Castillo had to accept AAA designations after they went through waivers, right? Which is to say the Red Sox had at least some outlet for them to potentially build back value while they (a) weren't on the 40-man and (b) had their salary off the books for luxury tax purposes... That path would not be available to them if they DFA'd Panda.

Bringing it all back around... What strikes me as weird about this whole Hanley "drama" over playing 1B is that in a very real way, having him DH full-time DOES limit roster flexibility in a way they couldn't have planned for... I mean, Moreland (historically) has no business playing every day against LHP, and Hanley playing 1B for the ~40-50 games they may face a LHP hardly seems like a huge ask for a guy who was a full-time 1B less than 12 months ago.

I suppose you could make Panda that 1B caddy for Moreland, but I've never read anything indicating he's taken reps there, and if that were even a thought for this season, wouldn't he have gotten some reps at 1B, even in SS games in ST... Just to get him familiar with it?

It's all a bit strange, and while I won't say there's even smoke here (let along fire), I do think I hear the sound of sticks being rubbed together furiously...
   14. Jose is El Absurd Pollo Posted: April 21, 2017 at 08:31 AM (#5439588)
The problem with Panda as a 1B caddy for Moreland (besides the "he sucks" thing) is that Sandoval hits lefties marginally worse than I would. There was missed time and all but he's got 4 hits as a RHB against LHP as a member of the Red Sox. While I get your point about Craig/Castillo having to accept AAA designations if the Sox choose to DFA Panda I imagine he will have been bad enough that he won't realistically have an option. If a team wants to grab him and pay his salary I imagine Dombrowski will send a gift basket from the Derek Jeter Collection as thanks.

I agree that Moreland playing regularly against lefties is likely to be an issue. If Hanley can't play first due to the shoulder I'm not sure what the fall back is. Even if all goes well I'd expect Moreland to miss some time. Looking it up he's been pretty durable but still I would be shocked if he played 162 and was effective. At some point we are going to need an option. Sam Travis is off to a slow start FWIW.

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