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Friday, August 28, 2009
Well…maybe until Beckett retires.
Entering Spring Training, manager, Fredi Gonzalez made the decision to move his leadoff hitter into the third position of the lineup. Gonzalez rationalized that his best hitter should hit with runners on base. The decision, which was correct in theory, has worked quite well. Ramirez is hitting .364/.426/.573 with 19 homeruns, 85 RBI, 81 runs scored, and 24 stolen bases. Even more impressive is the fact that Ramirez is a .400/.460/.583 hitter with runners in scoring position. In situations where there are two outs and runners in scoring position, Ramirez posts a batting line of .457/.528/.630. For a comparison, Albert Pujols is a .352/.565/.681 hitter with runners in scoring position, but fares far worse with two outs and runners in scoring position with his .214/.577/.393 batting line. Again, Pujols is the best player in the game, but Ramirez’s production is comparable. Judging by the numbers, Ramirez should be in the discussion as 2009’s best player.
In the field, he has just 8 errors, a .980 fielding percentage, and, to get defensive metric correct, a 1.2 UZR (ultimate zone rating). The offensive numbers are spectacular, while the defense doesn’t negate his offense. His UZR ranks him 13th among Major League shortstops. Again, not spectacular, but not terrible. Pujols is, according to defensive metrics, the definition of an average first baseman. He has nine errors and a .993 fielding percentage. His UZR of 0.0 is 10th among first basemen. Although both players are average defenders, Ramirez does play shortstop, a more demanding defensive position. With offensive numbers in the same ballpark and similar defensive statistics, the demand of the position played must be factored into the equation.
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1. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: August 28, 2009 at 12:19 PM (#3307450)Looks like Albert is not getting anything to hit in that situation, and that he may be expanding his strike zone on marginal pitches. Could ba a data point in the argumant against expanding your strike zone and just taking the walk. Albert may be the best hitter in the game, but surely the guy coming up behind him can manage better than a .214 Chadwick Ratio.
Unless we go into Full Stathead Zombie Mode.
mmmm - runs
I also want Kevin Brown retroactively awarded his Cy Young as a Marlin.
In the context of deciding that season's MVP it's relevant though, surely?
In relation to who-Hanley? So if you put Pujols at short, he'll save more runs than Ramirez. Riiiight. Even if you don't, an average fielder at SS will still be more valuable than an above-average 1B-because he'll get to more balls.
Heh.
A 5 run difference is not enough to be decisive, even if this wasn't just late August. It's well within the margin of error. If the season ended today Pujols, Ramirez, and Utley are all good choices.
The MSM.
Of course, that doesn't take away from the fact that even if Ramirez is a below-average SS (which has been his reputation for several years, albeit I understand he's been getting better), his fielding value may be comparable to a gold-glove 1B. Hanley is certainly having a terrific season, and although the MVP looks like Albert's to lose, Ramirez should be in the MVP discussion.
Did I miss a memo? Surely we're not calling BA this now, right?
Runs Saved
Ramirez +3
Pujols +7
Why do people adjust postions by runs instead of defensive games? I don't have the Abstracts at work, but I always liked the methodology that James used around 82 and 83 where he assigned offensive and defensive wins and losses to players and came up with a W-L record for a player and rated them on the likelihood that a bench guy would have that contribution. I think I'm the only fan of this methodology in the sabersphere, but no one's convinced me to not like it yet.
I'm not here to convince you not to like what James did back then. To each his own. But I prefer runs because it's easier to work with, and puts everything, offense, defense, position, baserunning, into the same currency.
and he always walks pujols with 1B open and risp, even if the astros are ahead
- oh yeah - albert is a superb fielding 1B. something is VERY wrong with the numbers which say he is not. hanley has gotten better with the glove every year. when he first come up he was a jerek style butcher
And what was the reasoning behind a positional adjustment instead of doing something like VORP + runs above/below avg in the field? I know the positional adjustment comes from more than a single year's data, but one could set a VORP replacement level on multiple years of data, right? The positional adjustment does seem easier for computation.
The defensive games approach is fine (it's been morphed to Win Shares), but the issue there is that the average fielder would always be .500. While the average fielding SS would be .500 for x number of games, and the average fielding 1B would be .500 for a smaller number of games, the problem is that he made them both .500. I "think" in Win Shares 2.0 (the one with Loss Shares), he understands that this can't be right, and so will (likely) set a different average level for each position.
And that average level will almost definitely correspond to the fielding spectrum numbers I've been using. I say that based in part on one of his articles in Fielding Bible II, and in part on the Loss Shares I've seen in the past on his site.
In any case, WAR (though I'm biased because of my involvement in it) has go to be the easiest and cleanest method around, isn't it?
Are we talking Jamie Moyer Slow pitch, or Steve Trachsel slow pitch?
What's your source on this? BB-Ref's batting runs has Pujols at 61.8 vs. Hanley at 43.2, and that's going to widen significantly once Sean updates the park factors ("Land Shark" has been playing as a far better hitters' park than Busch this year). That doesn't include SB/CS, but that's been virtually a wash between them.
WPA/LI (aka Situational Wins) has Pujols and Ramirez neck-and-neck. This stat recalibrates each event based on the game state (but doesn't have the leverage aspect). So, e.g., a K is a killer with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs.
Hanley however has been terrible when the game is on the line, relatively speaking.
And the way you do the fielding is to add 7.5 runs (per 162G) to Hanley's UZR, and you subtract 12.5 runs (per 162G) to Pujols' UZR. That aligns their fielding impact onto a common scale.
Pujols I think has about 25 or 30 more IBB than Hanley, so that's an extra 6 runs he's getting that he doesn't deserve.
What is it good for?
If you want to say that, then fine, but don't give him extra credit for his batting line, which is nowhere near as impressive as Pujols' on its own.
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