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Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Gerrit Cole to Yankees ‘inevitable’ despite Astros’ interest - NY Daily News

in·ev·i·ta·ble
inˈevidəb(ə)l/Submit
adjective
1.
certain to happen; unavoidable.
“war was inevitable”
synonyms: unavoidable, inescapable, inexorable, ineluctable; More
noun
1.
a situation that is unavoidable.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 09, 2018 at 10:36 AM | 51 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: gerrit cole, pirates, trade, yankees

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   1. Russ Posted: January 09, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5603334)
Being a Pirate fan f-ing sucks. My son is finally interested in baseball and, given that we live in Montreal and he already loves the Penguins instead of the Habs, he started watching the Pirates with me last year. But now they're going to trade his second favourite player and will be even crappier than they were last year. It's so frustrating.
   2. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 09, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5603343)
It was a nice three year run and I look forward to the next one in 20-25 years, assuming I'm still alive by then.
   3. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 09, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5603360)
AFAICT Cole has had but one notable year, and that was three years ago. Unless they know something about him that doesn't show up in his stat lines, I can't see the Yanks offering anything more than they already have, and IMO even that (Frazier and Adams) seems too much.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 09, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5603418)
Unless they know something about him that doesn't show up in his stat lines


His stat lines already show that he's a demonstrably better pitcher than Sonny Gray, for whom they gave up a significantly better package than the one they're offering for Cole. Does that count?
   5. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 09, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5603421)
Two players who missed the whole season with injury and an outfielder who hit .267/.322/.459 on the year in A/AA?
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 09, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5603428)
His stat lines already show that he's a demonstrably better pitcher than Sonny Gray,

Really? Gray 770.1 IP, 115 ERA+, 12.5 bWAR. Cole 782.1 IP, 112 ERA+, 11.4 bWAR.

And they Gray package wasn't really better. Fowler and Kapraelian both had serious injuries before the trade.
   7. Lassus Posted: January 09, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5603438)
This type of article from the Daily News is what was inevitable.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5603567)
Maybe he thinks "inevitable" means "highly evitable."

Yeah, I don't see the Gray package as being particularly superior. Frazier was considered superior to Fowler as far as I know even before Fowler's injury. Plus we have Jose's assurance that Frazier will be better than Judge. :-) Note, I don't know why the A's went for that package and I'm not sure I'd recommend the Pirates go for this one but they seem pretty similar packages for pretty similar players.
   9. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 09, 2018 at 05:10 PM (#5603644)
His stat lines already show that he's a demonstrably better pitcher than Sonny Gray,

Snapper beat me to the answer to that one, and given that Gray's been more consistent, if anything snapper understated the case.

If you line up all 10 of their combined seasons according to ERA+, Cole's best season (149) barely beats Gray's best (146), and Gray's 2016 injury-riven worst (72) is easily the worst of the lot, but in between Gray's other 3 seasons are all quite a bit better than Cole's: 143, 123 and 120 to Cole's 111, 107 and 101.
   10. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: January 09, 2018 at 05:30 PM (#5603664)
Plus we have Jose's assurance that Frazier will be better than Judge. :-)


Man that has really caught on. I'm not as confident now as I was but hell, I'm sticking with it.
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 09, 2018 at 07:54 PM (#5603737)
Man that has really caught on. I'm not as confident now as I was but hell, I'm sticking with it.

Trading Frazier would be high risk. Jose is overdue to be right on something.
   12. ptodd Posted: January 09, 2018 at 09:06 PM (#5603778)
Cole in the AL East with DH and YS3 might not fare too well unless he pitches must better than in Pittsburgh last year. As a Red Sox fan I am sort of hoping it happens with a massive overpay on the Yankees part (any top 100 prospect would be an overpay IMO). Cashman may be wise to wait until the deadline to see if he bounces back
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 09:19 AM (#5603886)
Cole in the AL East with DH and YS3 might not fare too well unless he pitches must better than in Pittsburgh last year.

I agree. You really don't want homer prone righties in Yankee Stadium.
   14. rconn23 Posted: January 10, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5603917)
I just do not want Cole given the likely cost and his propensity to give up homers. I'm not the biggest believer in Adams, and why he may be closer to the majors, Sheffield is clearly their pitching prospect with the highest ceiling. So parting with Adams and Frazier for Cole is not really an overpay. Adding in an additional top prospect like Florial would be exorbitant.
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 10:48 AM (#5603927)
The way I see it, Frazier and Fowler are broadly comparable (maybe a slight edge to Frazier), and Mateo is significantly better than Adams. Kaprielian, while high-volatility, does have legitimate front-of-the-rotation upside. So the A's package is substantially better than the one that the Pirates are being offered.


Also, over the last three years (the interval typically used for making projections), Cole has better strikeout, walk, and home run rates than Gray, so it seems pretty open-and-shut to me that he's the better pitcher of the two.

I think a Cole offer that's comparable to the Gray package (with a slight bump up for Cole being the better talent of the two) would be Frazier, Sheffield, and a high-ceiling low-minors arm like Abreu, Perez, German, or Medina.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5603929)
I'm not sure why everyone's freaking out about Cole being homer-prone. He's consistently had a better-than-average HR rate prior to 2017, and just got a little unlucky with his HR/FB last year.

In the event that he's not traded (which would be fine if nobody's willing to pay appropriate value for him), I have zero reservations about him for 2018.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5603932)
The way I see it, Frazier and Fowler are broadly comparable (maybe a slight edge to Frazier), and Mateo is significantly better than Adams. Kaprielian, while high-volatility, does have legitimate front-of-the-rotation upside. So the A's package is substantially better than the one that the Pirates are being offered.

You're way off to how the prospect people view things.

Just to use Sickels as an example, before 2017, he had Frazier as a B+ (2nd in the Yankee system) vs. Fowler as a B- (#13). That was before Fowler suffered a major leg injury.

He had Kaprielian and Adams both as B+ (#6 & 7 respectively), again, before Kaprielian needed major surgery.
   18. JJ1986 Posted: January 10, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5603982)
JP Morosi:
Sources: Gerrit Cole trade to #Astros imminent. @MLB
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5603987)
You're way off to how the prospect people view things.


I'm talking about how I see the prospects in question. I don't give a rat's ass about whether a player is a B or a B- in a third-party analyst's list. Those guys' opinions are interesting, and worth considering, but in general I'm bullish on all three of the guys the A's got and I'm bearish on Adams (as well as Andujar, whose name keeps getting jammed into reports about a possible Cole deal). So I don't like this Yankees' proposal, and I'd rather keep shopping for a better one, and if this turns out to be the best offer on the board, I'd rather keep Cole.
   20. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5603997)
Sources: Gerrit Cole trade to #Astros imminent. @MLB


The Astros do have some pretty good stuff. Crossing my fingers...
   21. rconn23 Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5604015)
Also, I hate these stories that poll anonymous GMs who spout nothing but pure supposition, saying "the Yankees or Red Sox" will inevitably end up with Player X. You might as well have a story sourced with nothing but a bunch a WFAN callers at a Brooklyn diner.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5604028)
I'm talking about how I see the prospects in question. I don't give a rat's ass about whether a player is a B or a B- in a third-party analyst's list. Those guys' opinions are interesting, and worth considering, but in general I'm bullish on all three of the guys the A's got and I'm bearish on Adams (as well as Andujar, whose name keeps getting jammed into reports about a possible Cole deal). So I don't like this Yankees' proposal, and I'd rather keep shopping for a better one, and if this turns out to be the best offer on the board, I'd rather keep Cole.

It's not one analyst. The whole prospect industry has had Frazier ranked top-25 to 50, while Fowler was not even a top-100 guy. He was viewed as a 4th OF until his good half season in AAA in 2017. That's still the only actual good performance of his career. Kaprielian was ranked where Adams is, before he suffered a major injury. He's shown zero ability to stay on the field; <30 career professional innings.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:20 PM (#5604029)
Deal to Astros is apparently done (per MLBTR). No report on return.
   24. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5604031)
Heh. So much for "inevitable".
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5604039)
It's not one analyst. The whole prospect industry has had Frazier ranked top-25 to 50, while Fowler was not even a top-100 guy.


Sure, and like I said above, I disagree with that assessment. I think that Frazier is the better player of the two, but not by enough to cancel out the huge edge in value that Mateo-and-Kaprielian hold relative to Adams.

Kaprielian's raw stuff is right up there with any SP prospect in the minors. Adams is a guy who looks like he might turn into a perfectly solid mid-rotation starter. The Pirates can't afford to buy stars on the open market, so they need to emphasize ceiling in any Cole deal, and Kaprielian has a lot more of it than Adams does - he can be a legit ace if he manages to stay reasonably healthy from here on out.

Also, even if Kaprielian weren't in the deal at all, you're still ignoring Mateo, who's a much better and more-valuable prospect than Adams in his own right.
   26. Zonk did it for the children of Russia Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5604046)
While I can certainly understand Pirates fans being displeased - the Astros certainly have enough in their system to make it a potential heist...

Still not seeing any reports on the return...
   27. Blastin Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5604047)
I wouldn't have hated the Cole trade, but I don't think he's that great.

Honestly, our problem against Houston was we forgot how to hit in Houston. If we can shore up 3B and Torres arrives, I'm not too worried, aside from injuries etc.
   28. asinwreck Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5604049)
Ah, the Daily News. Never change.
   29. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5604060)
MLB Buzz: Castro asks for trade from Marlins

Gee, why wouldn't anyone want to play for a worthless team with cheap owners?
   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5604063)
Still not seeing any reports on the return...


There's a moderately well-known Pirates blog that says that they have two sources indicating that Whitley's in the deal.

I really don't have words for how little I trust that information, but on the off-chance that it happens to be true, there you go.
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5604066)
...and now he just retracted it. Unsurprisingly.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5604068)
There's a moderately well-known Pirates blog that says that they have two sources indicating that Whitley's in the deal.

Now Luhnow is denying that anything is imminent.

Whitley is #36 per MLB.com. Seems like an equivalent headliner to Frazier.
   33. Zonk did it for the children of Russia Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5604075)
There's a moderately well-known Pirates blog that says that they have two sources indicating that Whitley's in the deal.

...and now he just retracted it. Unsurprisingly.


Welp... I'd have to think that either Whitley or Kyle Tucker would be the baseline/starting point for a "good return"... though, as much as anyone would love to add Tucker, I imagine the Pirates would be less interested in him than most teams.
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5604082)
Whitley is much, much better than Frazier. Better enough that I'd be pretty shocked if the Astros were willing to move him at all. Though I certainly wouldn't complain.
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5604095)
Whitley is much, much better than Frazier.

What is this based on? Prospect fatigue?

They both have pretty equivalent prospect rankings. e.g. FG gives Whitley a 50 FV, vs. 55 for Frazier. Maybe Whitley has a higher ceiling, but as a pitcher with <100 professional innings, he has a very high chance of being nothing at all.

   36. The Duke Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5604096)
So this is kind of like the Heyward Miller trade right? Pittsburgh should get back a cost controlled major leaguer, a prospect and a lottery ticket right?
   37. Blastin Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5604097)
12:04pm: A source tells Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) that the rumored deal is simply a “false rumor.” It seems, then, there’s no reason at this time to believe a deal between these organizations is particularly likely to occur.
   38. JJ1986 Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5604106)
So this is kind of like the Heyward Miller trade right?
You mean the second Shelby Miller trade? The Heyward one was 2 for 2 with one of the guys being Jordan Walden.
   39. Khrushin it bro Posted: January 10, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5604110)
Cole has 2 years of control left while Gray had 2.5 and the Yankees were in the playoff race last year right? I guess Gray's injury concerns balance that out. I'd guess industry opinion of their value would have Cole higher due to better stuff and more typical pitcher's build (less likely to break down).
   40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5604121)
Man, they're just taunting us now.
   41. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5604135)
What is this based on?


On my opinion of the players in question, which in turn is based on both observation and statistical analysis.

I think that Whitley is one of the very best pitching prospects in the minors.

They both have pretty equivalent prospect rankings. e.g. FG gives Whitley a 50 FV, vs. 55 for Frazier.


Once again, that's very interesting and all, but I'm going to trust my own opinion of the two over that of a third party.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5604142)
On my opinion of the players in question, which in turn is based on both observation and statistical analysis.

Once again, that's very interesting and all, but I'm going to trust my own opinion of the two over that of a third party.

Are you a scout or published prospect analyst?

If not, you realize it's absurd to state your personal evaluation of players as if it's a fact anyone else should give credence to?
   43. Blastin Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5604144)
He just dismissed Fangraphs as some random third party.
   44. philly Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5604152)
They both have pretty equivalent prospect rankings. e.g. FG gives Whitley a 50 FV, vs. 55 for Frazier.


FG has not provided updated rankings for this offseason for either the Astros or the Yankees. Are those grades from last winter?

Whitely had a great year and boosted his stock quite a bit. He is now widely regarded as amongst the top handful of pitching prospects in the game. I bet he'll be more like a 60 or 65 FV when FG writes a new report.

I don't follow Frazier as closely, but didn't he have more of a "hold serve" type of a season at best?

Their respective prospect rankings this winter will not be "pretty equivalent".
   45. jmurph Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5604155)
You guys are being unfair, I think. Vlad has demonstrated over the years here that he clearly follows and pays attention to prospects a heck of a lot closer than the rest of us. Whether he's right or not is totally immaterial, I think it's fair that he a. has strong opinions on various prospects and b. has conviction in his own opinions. Snapper, you don't sometimes think you're right about an MLB player's abilities/future performance compared to what Steamer spits out?
   46. Blastin Posted: January 10, 2018 at 02:52 PM (#5604157)
Fair enough. I don't have an opinion of the two compared to each other, anyway.

I don't personally have opinions on prospect abilities, just results.
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5604183)
If not, you realize it's absurd to state your personal evaluation of players as if it's a fact anyone else should give credence to?


Anyone who watches baseball is entitled to their own opinion on prospects.

My opinion is mine, and you can give it as much or as little credence as you see fit.
   48. Hysterical & Useless Posted: January 10, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5604207)
you can give it as much or as little credence as you see fit.


I'll give it "Who'll Stop the Rain" and "Proud Mary." No more than that.

:-)
   49. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2018 at 04:10 PM (#5604211)
FWIW, MLB.com seems to keep their list "updated" in some fashion. They have Whitley at #36. At the moment however, the list is very pitcher heavy as he doesn't quite make the top 10 RHP list and they've got three LHP ahead of him too. They have him as roughly the equivalent of Soroka or Puk.

They also have Fowler at #67, Mateo #98 and Kapriellan outside the top 100 and #10 on the A's list.

Adams is #53, Frazier is no longer eligible but was #24 at mlb.com pre-2017 (#16 BPro, #39 BA). Sheffield was mentioned, he's at #80.

This looks like flip a coin among almost any of these players. The main concerns are Fowler's injury, Kapriellan's injury and that Frazier's 142 ML PAs featured a 30% K-rate with a 5% walk-rate that obviously needs to improve. (The minors was not super-encouraging at 25/10.)
   50. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 10, 2018 at 04:47 PM (#5604243)
Heh. So much for "inevitable".

Ah, the Daily News. Never change.


Seems like MLB.com is trying to out-Daily-News the Daily News. Maybe not the best thing to aspire to.
   51. asinwreck Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:03 PM (#5606067)
ESPN reporting the Houston trade has happened with Joe Musgrove and Colin Moran going to Pittsburgh.

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