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Friday, May 19, 2017

Giancarlo Stanton says frustration level is “highest ever”

Giancarlo Stanton should be a happy man, what with a $325 million contract that sets him up for life.

But all that money—guaranteed to the decimal—isn’t putting a smile on his face. He is fed up with losing, and losing is all he’s ever known as a Marlin.

Before taking the field Thursday at Dodger Stadium, before the Marlins tossed another loss into the raging bonfire, Stanton said his frustration level is reaching new heights.

“It’s probably the highest ever,” Stanton said. “It’s higher than me being the worst player on the field for a month, the worst player in the big leagues for a month, last year.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 19, 2017 at 03:13 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giancarlo stanton, marlins

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   1. bfan Posted: May 19, 2017 at 03:18 PM (#5459500)
another reason to trade your super-stars and go full dumpster when you are not a big money franchise and need to rebuild because you are in the 70-81 win range.
   2. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 19, 2017 at 03:25 PM (#5459511)
Maybe he shouldn't have signed a huge contract with a dumpster fire franchise owned by a piece of scum.
   3. Khrushin it bro Posted: May 19, 2017 at 03:28 PM (#5459519)
Jeter isn't that scummy.
   4. bfan Posted: May 19, 2017 at 04:01 PM (#5459570)
Maybe he shouldn't have signed a huge contract with a dumpster fire franchise owned by a piece of scum.


I really do not want MLB to follow the NBA model of all of the best players signing with a few teams, leaving an 81 game regular season of exhibition games, where nothing matters, including home court advantage, until the games played in late May and June (or, in baseball's case, October).
   5. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 19, 2017 at 04:16 PM (#5459585)
Stanton isn't tradable.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 19, 2017 at 04:43 PM (#5459616)
another reason to trade your super-stars and go full dumpster when you are not a big money franchise and need to rebuild because you are in the 70-81 win range.

False. Never trade young super-stars. There's no chance of getting equal value for them.

Spend some money to assemble a real team around them.
   7. Cargo Cultist Posted: May 19, 2017 at 05:05 PM (#5459641)
Maybe he shouldn't have signed a huge contract with a dumpster fire franchise owned by a piece of scum.


Exactly. Stanton made a terrible decision out of greed; now he gets to live with the consequences.
   8. Satan Says Posted: May 19, 2017 at 05:12 PM (#5459652)
Bullshit. The deal heavily favors the Marlins up to the six-year opt-out, and he did it so they could build a contender. Hence the frustration, but I'm not sure what the Marlins could do differently.

   9. Khrushin it bro Posted: May 19, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5459676)
Poor Giancarlo :(
   10. Satan Says Posted: May 19, 2017 at 05:51 PM (#5459685)
Terrible, just ter, when a ballplayer cares about winning. Sure wouldn't want him on my team.
   11. QLE Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:07 PM (#5459697)
I really do not want MLB to follow the NBA model of all of the best players signing with a few teams, leaving an 81 game regular season of exhibition games, where nothing matters, including home court advantage, until the games played in late May and June (or, in baseball's case, October).


It really doesn't help that we've seen that happen before, in the decade or so when it was perpetually the Yankees versus the Dodgers (and occasionally the Giants) in the World Series.

It is probably not a coincidence that this period corresponds with the rise of professional football as a popular sport....
   12. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:14 PM (#5459702)
The deal heavily favors the Marlins


Don't think so, in reality it's a huge millstone and i'm wondering if it's helping depress the value of the franchise.

If Stanton gets hurt or start to suck before 2020, the Marlins will owe him $212M. If he's still great or salaries continue to escalate, he's gone. In a normal contract you take on the risk of injury/decline in exchange for the upside of health and outperformance. The Marlins contract takes all of the first, and gets only part of the second.

Worse, he has a full no-trade clause, so even if the Marlins could find a trade partner, he can veto it or demand more in exchange for oking it.

The two years before he got hit, he averaged a 160 OPS+, since then he's average 122. No way in hell he ever opts out now.
   13. McCoy Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:19 PM (#5459706)
Wait, the Marlins price tag is being depressed?
   14. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5459711)
You don't think the bidders having trouble lining up or keeping investors has an underlying cause?
   15. Satan Says Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5459712)
They're getting the upside of his career at a discount. He'd have to be Andruw Jones redux and him not to opt out for it to be a loss.

Only if he declines past 30 AND plays out his career as a Marlin are they on the hook. Salaries aren't going to go down.
   16. Satan Says Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:28 PM (#5459713)
No way in hell he ever opts out now.


We'll see.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:29 PM (#5459714)
You don't think the bidders having trouble lining up or keeping investors has an underlying cause?

Yeah, they're paying way more than the franchise is worth. There is no earthly reason to pay $1B for the Marlins, much less $1.3B.

The freaking LA Dodgers "only" went for $2B.

At a reasonable price, like $800-900M, there would be plenty of investors.
   18. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 19, 2017 at 06:47 PM (#5459721)
The highest bid for the Marlins so far is $1.1B by Jeter/Bush. The offer is $1.3B, but Loria has to pay off $200M in debt for it. And this offer is about to collapse since they lost one of their biggest investors. Romney's offer is less than $1B if you factor in the debt repayment.
   19. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 19, 2017 at 07:01 PM (#5459726)
They're getting the upside of his career at a discount. He'd have to be Andruw Jones redux and him not to opt out for it to be a loss.

Only if he declines past 30 AND plays out his career as a Marlin are they on the hook. Salaries aren't going to go down.


The "genius" of Lorias contact to Stanton was it was super heavily backloaded so they could afford him until they sold the team. But since the beaning Giancarlo has played like a 3 WAR player, if he doesn't return to nearer his previous performance level he won't be able to afford to opt out.

His opt out is before his age 31 season. The remainder of his contract averages $32M year for 7 more years (if they buy out the last year, $31M a year for 8 years if they don't). Stanton's opt out alone would still be one of the 10 biggest contracts in baseball history right now, and it's yearly average is 3rd highest ever.

The market would have to go absolutely bonkers for a 3 WAR player going straight into his decline years to be given more than $32M a year on a 7-8 year deal. Even if he rebounds to become a 4 to 5 WAR player it's very unlikely , especially with the collapsing market for broadcasting rights.

So for any potential buyers, they have to be willing to take on $200M in direct debt, and $200M+ in Giancarlo related debt. That's a lot of debt. And so far, the buying frenzy seems to be dissipating as soon as the lead bidders show the numbers to investors. It really looks like investors are asking tough questions and aren't getting good answers.
   20. McCoy Posted: May 19, 2017 at 08:33 PM (#5459766)
Of the would be new ownership group. Like how in the hell do you think I'm going to give you hundreds of millions of dollars for a limited partnership.

Jeter was and is and will always be undercapitalized and under financed
   21. QLE Posted: May 19, 2017 at 09:04 PM (#5459787)
Of the would be new ownership group. Like how in the hell do you think I'm going to give you hundreds of millions of dollars for a limited partnership.

Jeter was and is and will always be undercapitalized and under financed


Quite- he's the sort of guy with very little of an actual share and with no real responsibilities, but who is useful to trot out to do the public stuff the folk who actually run the team would rather not do.

For him to actually be the person calling the shots, on the other hand....
   22. Cargo Cultist Posted: May 20, 2017 at 12:27 AM (#5459931)
Bullshit. The deal heavily favors the Marlins up to the six-year opt-out, and he did it so they could build a contender. Hence the frustration, but I'm not sure what the Marlins could do differently.


Bullshit yourself. Either you flunked economics or you have missed the fact that post-beaning Stanton is only about a 3 WAR player.

Players sometimes can't ever recover their old form after a serious beaning. Stanton so far looks to be one of them. You probably don't remember Tony Conigliaro, but people compared him to Mickey Mantle until he was badly beaned. Afterwards, he was more like Mickey Mouse: as a player he was nothing but a shell of his former self.
   23. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: May 20, 2017 at 12:32 AM (#5459933)
Stanton juuuuuust missed crushing a Ryu meatball last night, instead popping up a mile high to CF. His body language after his swing was... readable.
   24. Cargo Cultist Posted: May 20, 2017 at 01:58 AM (#5459948)
2014 Pre-beaning Stanton WAR: 6.6

Post-beating WAR (2015, 2016, 2017 partial): 3.8, 2.5, 0.8

   25. Satan Says Posted: May 20, 2017 at 07:44 AM (#5459962)
The BS was to your comment that Stanton was greedy and made a terrible decision. You like to hate on ballplayers for some reason.

I don't disagree the Marlins will be on an expensive hook if Stanton doesnt opt out. But they gained prime years, unlike the Angels paying bad for both Pujols and Hamilton.

I don't doubt the strike to the face affected Stanton, but unlike Tony C, it didn't take his eyesight. He had a 965 OPS upon his return. He has had problems staying healthy otherwise, which admittedly could pose problems for his career. 325 was an overpay.

My big issue here and elsewhere is how people use stats as strictly determining future performance rather than provided the educated guess that it is. And quoting WAR as an end-all is worse than that.
   26. The Duke Posted: May 20, 2017 at 08:18 AM (#5459963)
Given how beanings tend to ruin players I think pitchers should get a one year suspension for all beanings. It really isn't that hard for major league pitchers to avoid hitting someone in the head and if you can't avoid it, you probably shouldn't be in the major leagues
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 20, 2017 at 09:52 AM (#5459973)
Given how beanings tend to ruin players I think pitchers should get a one year suspension for all beanings. It really isn't that hard for major league pitchers to avoid hitting someone in the head and if you can't avoid it, you probably shouldn't be in the major leagues

Totally ridiculous. The number of players "ruined" by beanings can probably be counted on two hands (Dickie Thon, Tony Conigliaro, ????). Maybe it's one hand.

And it's incredibly hard for pitchers to never miss a spot. You're basically advocating for a game where pitchers can never throw inside about the waist. That's going to lead to an offensive explosion.
   28. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 20, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5459991)
It really isn't that hard for major league pitchers to avoid hitting someone in the head


Except for Kevin Mench. That guy's head was enormous. Its gravity altered tides whenever his teams were in coastal cities.
   29. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 20, 2017 at 05:07 PM (#5460091)
The number of players "ruined" by beanings can probably be counted on two hands (Dickie Thon, Tony Conigliaro, ????


One of those hands should be the one that Ray Chapman has raised.
   30. Man o' Schwar Posted: May 20, 2017 at 05:17 PM (#5460096)
The number of players "ruined" by beanings can probably be counted on two hands (Dickie Thon, Tony Conigliaro, ????).

It's probably about equal to the number of pitchers "ruined" by being hit by batted balls (Dizzy Dean, Herb Score, Wilbur Wood, ????).
   31. Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump Posted: May 20, 2017 at 05:59 PM (#5460110)
Matt Clement.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: May 20, 2017 at 06:20 PM (#5460121)
That 6.5 WAR was a (counting stat) career best for Stanton, it's silly to pretend that was his pre-beaning talent level.

From 22-24, Stanton averaged 5.7 WAR per 650 PA. From 25-27, he's averaged 4.7 WAR/650 PA. His WAR totals have been depressed post-beaning because he keeps getting hurt. His best performance post-beaning was 2015 when he was on an 8-WAR pace. It's odd that the beaning's effects wouldn't surface until 2016. It would seem more likely that it was breaking the hamate bone in his hand in 2015 that has sidetracked him.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 20, 2017 at 06:40 PM (#5460131)
That 6.5 WAR was a (counting stat) career best for Stanton, it's silly to pretend that was his pre-beaning talent level.

From 22-24, Stanton averaged 5.7 WAR per 650 PA. From 25-27, he's averaged 4.7 WAR/650 PA. His WAR totals have been depressed post-beaning because he keeps getting hurt. His best performance post-beaning was 2015 when he was on an 8-WAR pace. It's odd that the beaning's effects wouldn't surface until 2016. It would seem more likely that it was breaking the hamate bone in his hand in 2015 that has sidetracked him.


Yup, he's still a 5 WAR player, but hasn't been able to stay on the field.

If Stanton can shake the injury bug, he's worth his contract. If he can't, he's not.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 20, 2017 at 06:40 PM (#5460132)

One of those hands should be the one that Ray Chapman has raised.


True, but the pre-batting helmet world was quite a bit different.
   35. Satan Says Posted: May 20, 2017 at 06:44 PM (#5460136)
Thanks, Walt.
   36. McCoy Posted: May 20, 2017 at 06:48 PM (#5460139)
Matt Clement.

Yes getting struck in the head leads to a shoulder injury a year later.
   37. The Duke Posted: May 20, 2017 at 09:05 PM (#5460194)
Heyward, uggla - there a number of players that don't get knocked out of game but didnt ever really recover. There's simply no reason to hit someone in the head. Pitching inside in the strike zone is quite do-able.
   38. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 20, 2017 at 09:20 PM (#5460206)
Heyward, uggla - there a number of players that don't get knocked out of game but didnt ever really recover.


Ellis Valentine.
   39. ReggieThomasLives Posted: May 20, 2017 at 09:37 PM (#5460220)
From 22-24, Stanton averaged 5.7 WAR per 650 PA. From 25-27, he's averaged 4.7 WAR/650 PA. His WAR totals have been depressed post-beaning because he keeps getting hurt. His best performance post-beaning was 2015 when he was on an 8-WAR pace. It's odd that the beaning's effects wouldn't surface until 2016. It would seem more likely that it was breaking the hamate bone in his hand in 2015 that has sidetracked him.


Yea, i got the year of his beaning wrong. But Stanton has only averaged 110 games a year since his 2nd season. It's probably unlikely he's able to put together too many complete seasons going forward. If you are a 5 WAR talent over 160 games, but only average 110 games the Marlins only get 3.5 WAR a year.

Again even if Stanton returns to full form and full seasons, I think it's unlikely he opts out. Teams, especially the Marlins, aren't getting ever higher TV revenues anymore, the gravy train is over. He literally has to outperform to get significantly more than $220M/7 years for his decline years. The opt-out in this contract was designed never to be triggered unless he turns into Babe Ruth.
   40. dejarouehg Posted: May 20, 2017 at 09:40 PM (#5460224)
There's simply no reason to hit someone in the head.
That's true but that's irrelevant to your initial post. When you're throwing at 96, players crowd the plate, your looking to throw inside, and balls may have natural movement, to believe the skill level exists to never hit someone in the head is not reality.

I'm amazed it doesn't happen more and when it does, I'm even more surprised at how well so many players respond, i.e., Piazza.

Actually, to correct my initial statement, maybe Clemens deserved a shot to the head.

   41. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 21, 2017 at 01:47 AM (#5460351)
Don Zimmer should also be mentioned as a player whose career was ruined by beaning(s). He was considered a major prospect, a shortstop who put up .900+ OPS in AAA (while being much younger than league average) before nearly getting killed. Coulda been a contender, never amounted to much. Though he did have an historically awful 14 games as the Mets 1st 3rd baseman!

As snapper notes, the pre-batting helmet world was a bit different.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5460436)
Heyward, uggla - there a number of players that don't get knocked out of game but didnt ever really recover. There's simply no reason to hit someone in the head. Pitching inside in the strike zone is quite do-able.

Uggla is totally made up. He was beaned on July 24, 2012. Prior to that game he was hitting 215/350/371. He missed only 2 days, and finished the season at 220/348/384. Absolutely zero evidence that getting hit affected him.

A late bloomer with old-player skills like Uggla fading at age-32 is absolutely predictable.

I call BS on Heyward also. When Heyward was hit on Aug 25, 2013, he had a 771 OPS. He came back in September and put up an 838 OPS in 35 PAs, ending the season at a 114 OPS+. The next two-seasons he put up a 109 and a 117 OPS+

Heyward was exactly the same hitter before and after getting hit in the face.

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