The move keeps San Francisco’s top three starters - Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Bumgarner - under contract at least through next season.

Well, this move had no impact on that whatsoever but if it makes the punters fell better ...

They'll need Bumgarner more than ever now that Tim Lincecum's ERA has climbed to
13.50
14.63
16.88

And Phinally the Phillies first inning is over after sending 8 batters to the plate. Freaky!

I'll be sad if Timmy has permanently lost his awesomeness.

I'm choosing to ignore the attacks on Lincecum.

The Bumgarner deal is a good one for the Giants, as the options are way below market value for a pitcher of Maddy's quality. I think Madison will regret signing this deal soon.

There are seriously no good young pitchers coming available anytime soon on the FA market. There is going to be a payroll explosion soon.

Hamels, but ya most all are under contract

I wish the best for The Timmeh and am puzzled by his poor start. Clearly I'm not the only one who has noticed this.

I wish the best for The Timmeh and am puzzled by his poor start. Clearly I'm not the only one who has noticed this.

SF dugout girl just showed some grainy pictures of Lincecum, partying on stage with some band at the Fillmore last night. Probably not related, but I'd be cranky, if I was a Giants fan...

There is going to be a payroll explosion soon

How so? Given most of the good young hitters are also tied up long-term, often on team-friendly contracts with team-friendly options, payrolls are nearly fixed. I bring it up in Cub threads all the time (broken record) but even with lots of payroll room coming their way for 2013-2014 and beyond, there's nobody for them to spend it on. I suppose 2016-17 when everybody's long-term arb buyouts switch from cheap arb to cheap FA we'll see a big jump.

It does seem that the risk/benefit for a young stud to not take the buyout must have tilted by now to benefit -- I wouldn't blame a Mike Trout for taking a buyout but he's also looking at a potentially massive 2018-19 payday if he's the first elite player to hit the market since Pujols.

On this deal, I'm assuming Bumgarner was going to be Super-2 so it buys out 4 arb years and 1 FA year. The most obvious comp would seem to be Gio Gonzalez at 5/$42 (roughly the same options) so it's a better deal than that one. $7 M more than Gallardo but that was signed in 2010 and $7 M more than Lester but signed in 2009. More than Holland and Niese but he's a better pitcher. In short, adjust for inflation, and it looks close enough to the standard buyout for a good young pitcher.

How so? Given most of the good young hitters are also tied up long-term, often on team-friendly contracts with team-friendly options, payrolls are nearly fixed.

There may be many good players signed for less than they'd get on the FA market, but that just means there's more payroll space left over to spend on the guys who do become FAs. Teams aren't going to stop being desperate and profligate just because the quality of available talent has gone down, they'll just end up overpaying for mediocrity.

Not that expect "payroll explosion" as a result. Probably more like a $/win explosion on FA contracts (if it is actually true that the stars are being locked up at a cheaper rate than before, of course. I don't want to assume that's true based on anecdotal evidence and impressions).

In my opinion, this means Lincecum is gone.

I think Lincecum was already gone, given his reported contract demands and Cain's extension.

I think you are right, but this makes it academic. They have their 1-2 pitch to build around under contract now.

So who's likely to massively overpay for Lincecum after next season ends...?

Time to lock up Ryan Vogelsong!

I suppose the numbers aren't a killer, but I still question a 6 year deal for someone whose rights you control for another 5... Pitchers break and break often. I'd want to see 3 years of good health and effectiveness before I did something like this. I suppose then, maybe you don't get as big a discount so whatever...

Bumgarner is exactly the kind of guy who is well served with a contract like this. Even if he costs himself some money he still reaches free agency prior to his age 30 season. If he remains an elite pitcher he'll still have a shot at a mega-deal and if he craps out he craps out with $35 million.

So who's likely to massively overpay for Lincecum after next season ends...?

Dodgers seem like the best bet, no?

How so? Given most of the good young hitters are also tied up long-term, often on team-friendly contracts with team-friendly options, payrolls are nearly fixed. I bring it up in Cub threads all the time (broken record) but even with lots of payroll room coming their way for 2013-2014 and beyond, there's nobody for them to spend it on.

Look at the winter after the 2006 season. Massive contracts to not only Barry Zito, but guys like Miguel Batista, Jeff Suppan, Gil Meche, Oliver Perez, Jason Schmidt, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Money spent overall doesn't depend on talent available, it depends on money available.

GMs are just like any other managers: if you give them a budget, they will spend it, because who knows if the money will be there next year.

This seems like a good thread to ask this question, about which I was arguing with someone the other day.

There are several interesting potential free agent starters coming this off-season, headlined by Hamels and Greinke. Just after them are Anibal Sanchez and Shaun Marcum. My question is this: assuming they stay healthy and pitch all year this year, what kind of contracts do you expect Marcum and Sanchez to get if they hit the market?

My position is that I don't see why they wouldn't get the standard good pitcher FA contract, which appears to be around 5 years/$80 million. A friend of mine couldn't see them getting near that sort of money.

What do you foresee?

I think both Marcum and Sanchez will get less than that with Marcum getting something more similar to Buehrle (4/58) and Sanchez a likely candidate for the Edwin Jackson "let's try this again a year from now" award.

Marcum's got the whole "he can beat the AL East" thing going for him but will be 31 next year. Sanchez has the strike of pitching in a pitcher's park for most of his career but is 29. Both have a major arm injury in their past and neither guy has any kind of post-season resume; Sanchez has never appeared and Marcum got battered in his one shot (though he may get another).

Bumgarner was crazy good last year-- very short but very bad stretch in April and then a disaster start in June hurt his overall numbers. Just an insane talent. This was a mart move on both sides IMO.

I like the deal for Bumgarner more than for SF. SF seemed to give him close to the max of what he would have made through the end of arbitration... I guess the real value is having the FA option years at such reasonable value.