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I'm not all that thrilled about it, but it isn't a terrible deal. The worst aspect of it is the 5-year length; almost certainly by that time it'll be a millstone. But in the short term there's nothing terrible about it.
Wow, I could have sworn he'd been plodding around out there for at least 2 years. Doesn't it seem like forever ago?
At some point you just have to accept that these signings define the market. An average starting player will sign for $10M/year and at least two years longer than you are certain you want to see him in uniform.
We've been having this discussion on the THT email circuit this afternoon. If a whole bunch of signings appear to be overpriced, that's probably a good indicator that our perception of "overpriced" has become outdated.
If the market for guys who are average, and on the wrong side of 27 is 10 million, then a team should just focus on finding those average guys on the right side of 27....because they will cost less than 10 million a year (even when you factor in having to have three of them in your farm system just to have one of them pan out).
You make a credible point, but it might be more accurate that this is what weak GMs do...
In reality, $12mil/yr. is today's going rate for a somewhat above average CF. In all likelihood, salaries will continue to rise, meaning an extra year of an average-ish (if still healthy) CF in 2012 will seem relatively inexpensive.
But players under 27/under 25 aren't really "freely available" - the ones that are going to be able to help your team within the next couple of years are under the control of teams, so they're going to cost talent for you to acquire. Sure, it'd be great for the Giants to try to trade Dave Roberts and Randy Winn and Ray Durham for good young players, but who the hell's going to be willing to give away good young players in exchange for Roberts or Winn or Durham? And if the Giants trade away their guys with value (Cain, Lincecum) for other guys of value, all they're doing is shuffling the cards - the net talent level's going to be about the same (assuming Sabean doesn't get fleeced), just a little redistributed. Worrying about the distribution of talent is something that teams with a lot of talent and/or are close the playoffs worry about. Better optimizing the Giants' talent will add what, maybe 2-3 wins, which gets them from 70 wins to 73 wins. Whoopee.
Should the Giants be investing in draft picks and international signings? Of course. But in the meantime, they're forced to either pay free-agent rates to fill out their major-league roster or play their AAA team at the big-league level with potentially '03 Tiger-style results. And for a team as well off as the Giants, I can't see this Rowand deal hurting their prospects of signing top amateur talent.
The gap between a 130 and 90 OPS+ for just one player isn't that big. Its more like 3 wins than 10 - of the last 4 years Rowand's best is +2.0 batting wins, worst is -0.9. Thank you Sean Forman for putting batting wins on B-Ref.
Now, "Well, what the hell should they do instead?" is a reasonable question. I see wanting to avoid 50-112, and Rowand, a decent ballplayer, helps with that. But the way Sabean talks and the stuff he does gives the impression he still thinks the Giants can contend with a few tweaks. I think that is what bugs SF fans more than Rowand specifically.
Obviously more cost-effective to invest in player development than to "build" through the free agent market. That said, even a good team with a strong farm system will need to fill an occasional hole. At that point you have two choices:
(1) Look for a below-average or risky player you can get on the cheap. (Carlos Pena, David Eckstein)
(2) Sign a premium free agent at premium prices. (Johnny Damon, Julio Lugo)
With few exceptions, I don't see teams hamstringing their finances with these deals.
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