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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Gleeman: Reds turned down trade with Phillies for Shane Victorino

Not Buyin’ Hawaiian.

Various reports have the Phillies shopping impending free agent Shane Victorino and according to Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer the Reds turned down a deal for the 31-year-old center fielder in exchange for reliever Logan Ondrusek…

if Daugherty’s report is accurate, the Phillies aren’t asking a whole lot for Victorino and the Reds aren’t exactly desperate to bring him in as a leadoff/center field replacement for Drew Stubbs.

The District Attorney Posted: July 25, 2012 at 07:57 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, reds, rumors, shane victorino

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   1. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 25, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4192335)
stubbs has looked a bit better of late but he hasn't been at the top of his game on defense most of the season. and he strikes out a lot as always.

don't know reds. seemed like a reasonable deal. pretty solid actually
   2. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 25, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4192340)
I don't buy it. Ondrusek has been fine but he's not one of their primary relievers. The Enquirer and mlb.com beat writers haven't even bothered to verify this.
   3. hokieneer Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4192347)
Please tell me this isn't true. Ondrusek is an easily expendable and replaceable bullpen arm.
   4. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4192354)
Logan Ondrusek is the very definition of a trade return that is less valuable than a draft pick.
   5. JJ1986 Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4192360)
I would have at least asked for Sam LeCure and his mustache.
   6. Textbook Editor Posted: July 25, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4192372)

Logan Ondrusek is the very definition of a trade return that is less valuable than a draft pick.


I don't know... Are the Phillies going to make a qualifying offer (somewhere around $12 million a year, I think) to Victorino to secure the draft pick if he walks? Because that's a pretty big risk--were I Victorino I'd take it, as I can't see anyone giving him a deal that involved a $12 million salary for 2013.

I don't think the Phillies make that offer, which means they get nothing if Victorino walks, and thus (in theory) any return is better than no return.
   7. The District Attorney Posted: July 25, 2012 at 10:08 PM (#4192381)
Also, it's saying the Reds rejected the deal, not the Phils.
   8. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: July 25, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4192401)
It was also reported yesterday that the Phillies asked the Pirates for Brad Lincoln and were refused. In a market where Ichiro was had for waiver bait, Shane Victorino just may not be worth that much.
   9. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 26, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4192430)
Stubbs had the game winning hit in the ninth inning tonight, so perhaps he was motivated by this...
   10. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 12:04 AM (#4192432)
The Ichiro trade isn't a valid basis of comparison anyway. Ichiro asked to be traded and probably asked to be traded to the Yankees, and "made concessions" (per Cashman; presumably that means he's willing to hit at the bottom of the order and play part time) to join them. The Mariners accommodated him. Plus, he has kinda sucked for a couple years now.

Victorino is a better player and the Phillies can shop him around. They should be able to at least get a semi-legitimate prospect for him.
   11. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 26, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4192435)
There was buzz on the airwaves that the Phils need to drop a little salary to stay under the cap. Blanton would be the obvious, but no one wants to pay 3M for the rest of the year for him. I think the Phils would take a used cup for him if they can get enough $ relief. Victorino would be the only other player who would fit the profile. This is a team that traded Wilson Valdez for salary relief earlier this year, even if it meant Michael Martinez would be the utility IF.
   12. MM1f Posted: July 26, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4192447)
In the long run giving up Ondrusek isn't going to hurt the Reds much but he has been a solid reliever. The Reds have to feel pretty good about winning their division, or at least the wild card, and would be judging any move they make on playoff series value rather than rest-of-regular season value.

Hopefully someone better with this stuff can help me out with the math of this but... A good 4th OF/part-time-CF might have a lot more playing time and thus value over the course of a 162 game season but in a 7 game series isn't a solid relief arm likely to participate in higher leverage situations and therefore (over the course of 4-7 games only) be more valuable?

Dumping Ondrusek and adding Victorino might weaken the 2012 Reds, not the mention that Ondrusek has 3 arb years left while Victorino is a free agent this offseason.

Thinking about it that way, asking for Ondrusek was crazy on the Phils part and a no-brainer decline for the Reds. Don't ask for MLB contributors from a team in a pennant race. Surely the Phillies could have found some good minor leaguers the Reds would part with.

How many contenders would deplete their bullpen to add an extra OF?
   13. SoSH U at work Posted: July 26, 2012 at 02:09 AM (#4192450)
A good 4th OF/part-time-CF might have a lot more playing time and value over the course of a 162 game season but in a 7 game series isn't a solid relief arm likely to participate in higher leverage situations and thus (over the course of 4-7 games only) be more valuable?


Possibly, and maybe more often than not. However, if your fourth is a legitimate platoon option, then he'd probably be equally valuable. Two, if he's a fourth outfielder with a good bat, you'll probably find some numerous high-leverage pinch-hit opportunities to work him into the game (or, along those lines, late-inning defensive work for a good glove). Finally, of course, if one of your Top 3 goes down, having a good No. 4 is a hell of a lot more important than another relief arm.

Ultimately, a lot of this depends on your outfield you have. If you've got a stacked lineup of guys who don't come out of the game, regardless the handedness of the pitcher, a Top 3-4 bullpen arm is probably going to contribute more over the course of a series. If you're outfield is more mix and match, the solid No. 4 may be the way to go.
   14. mathesond Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:02 AM (#4192512)
If Blanton's available on the cheap I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays pick him up just so they have enough arms to finish the season
   15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:06 AM (#4192514)
The Ichiro trade isn't a valid basis of comparison anyway. Ichiro asked to be traded and probably asked to be traded to the Yankees, and "made concessions" (per Cashman; presumably that means he's willing to hit at the bottom of the order and play part time) to join them. The Mariners accommodated him. Plus, he has kinda sucked for a couple years now.
I think it's more important that the Mariners are picking up most of Ichiro's salary. The Yankees are only on the hook for ~$2M.

If the Phillies were shopping Victorino for middle relievers, I figure they were trying to get someone else to pay freight on his remaining contract.
   16. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:51 AM (#4192532)
In the long run giving up Ondrusek isn't going to hurt the Reds much but he has been a solid reliever.

He's a decent enough groundballer but he's been skating on thin ice for over a year. Walk rates are over 4 per 9; K's around 6. I'm probably a little colored since Ondrusek nearly blew the game last night, but JJ Hoover would be a perfectly capable replacement from Louisville.

If Victorino's true talent OBP is closer to .350 than his current rate, he'll be a big upgrade at the leadoff spot.
   17. philly Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:54 AM (#4192534)
There was buzz on the airwaves that the Phils need to drop a little salary to stay under the cap.


I think that's a big part of the motivation for the Phils. I'll add the additional caveat that it seems like with the Hamels deal in place they now accept that they'll have to go over the luxury tax threshold next year and maybe way over. They are already over this year and if that sticks will have to pay 17.5%. And although I'm sure they don't want to pay that in a non playoff year, the bigger concern is that will kick the rate to 30% next year as a repeat offender. And if they have to go over by a fair amount in rebound year, then that could be a pretty substantial bill.

It's also why I seriously doubt they risk a tender offer to Victorino.
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:56 AM (#4192538)
Hopefully someone better with this stuff can help me out with the math of this but... A good 4th OF/part-time-CF might have a lot more playing time and thus value over the course of a 162 game season but in a 7 game series isn't a solid relief arm likely to participate in higher leverage situations and therefore (over the course of 4-7 games only) be more valuable?
Actual high-leverage situations should be covered by Chapman and Marshall. Ondrusek is the #3/#4 arm in that bullpen, which would make it very hard for him take on an average leverage about 1.3 or so. No way that's more useful than an upgrade from Drew Stubbs in CF.
   19. zonk Posted: July 26, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4192539)
The rumored availability of Alfonso Soriano has really complicated the market for OFers...
   20. hokieneer Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4192575)
He's a decent enough groundballer but he's been skating on thin ice for over a year. Walk rates are over 4 per 9; K's around 6. I'm probably a little colored since Ondrusek nearly blew the game last night, but JJ Hoover would be a perfectly capable replacement from Louisville.

If Victorino's true talent OBP is closer to .350 than his current rate, he'll be a big upgrade at the leadoff spot.


Agree on all parts. Ondrusek is a powder keg that's going to blow up in Dusty's face sometime soon. The fact he keeps running him out there in the 8th/9th, treating him as the right-handed "8th inning guy" is maddening. I feel more comfortable with JJ Hoover pitching in any situation than Ondrusek.

Even if Victorino's not a true talent .350 OBP, his current .318 would put him 2nd among Cincinnati's primary outfielders. The Reds have 4 low OBP outfielders, 2 of which have hit for some power this year (Bruce, Ludwick).

Victorino solves so many problems for the reds:
1) someone who can theoretically get on base in front of Votto/Bruce.
2) a left-hander (ok switch) in a lineup dominated by right handed hitters
3) A offensive upgrade in CF or LF over the combo Stubbs/Heisey/Ludwick.
4) A better defensive player than Stubbs/Heisey/Ludwick

Maybe I'm under selling Ondrusek, but I feel this trade would have been a huge win for the Reds. Perhaps Walt thinks he can either get more for Ondrusek or would rather part with prospects closer to the deadline for some help.
   21. MM1f Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4192641)
Victorino solves so many problems for the reds:
4) A better defensive player than Stubbs


Wait... WHAT!?

False! False, false, false. Say what you will about Stubbs at the plate, but the man is a natural born flycatcher and certainly a much better one than a declining Shane Victorino.
   22. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4192644)
I think it's more important that the Mariners are picking up most of Ichiro's salary. The Yankees are only on the hook for ~$2M.


Actually, the Yankees are on the hook for Ichiro's remaining 2012 salary except $2 million that the Mariners are paying. About $6 million, I think.
   23. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 26, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4192658)
Actually, the Yankees are on the hook for Ichiro's remaining 2012 salary except $2 million that the Mariners are paying. About $6 million, I think.
This was initially reported in several places, but all of the more recent reports I've read have the money working the other way. See MLBTR:
Ichiro, who is a free agent following the 2012 season, is owed roughly $6.7MM of his $17MM salary. The Yankees will be responsible for $2.25MM of that salary, meaning the Mariners are including somewhere around $4.5MM to facilitate the deal.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4193270)
A good 4th OF/part-time-CF might have a lot more playing time and thus value over the course of a 162 game season but in a 7 game series isn't a solid relief arm likely to participate in higher leverage situations and therefore (over the course of 4-7 games only) be more valuable?

It's a good question. If anything though, for a short playoff sereis with days off every couple of games, I'm going to lengthen my bench and shorten my pitching staff. (Just because I think it's a good idea doesn't mean that it's actually the right thing to do but that's a safe assumption. :-) As noted above, how versatile is this 4th OF?* Starter against RHP, best PH, decent power for a miracle HR, good defensively, base-stealer -- in a short series, that guy is gonna be plenty valuable in high-leverage situations. As you scratch some of those off, his leverage reduces but Jim Leyritz and Shane Spencer are still pretty famous guys. And how good is the reliever? Shortening my bullpen means I am giving all my important relief innings to my top 3 relievers and my LOOGY. But in a short series, I want that killer LOOGY to face killer lefty batters in the late innings which means I need a little RHP depth.

The Reds are interesting in that they've got two killer lefty relievers who are more than LOOGYs. I really shouldn't face many cases where I'm going to want/need to go RHP/LHP/RHP so I'm less concerned with RHP depth. So Chapman, Marshall and Arredondo are who I'm counting on for innings 7-9. I'm not digging too deep (and I don't know who's healthy) but Ondrusek, LeClure and Hoover look pretty interchangeable to me and Simon is having the season of his life so (money aside) so I think 4th RP is well-covered (plus 4 starters and the 5th starter for a 9-man staff; another reliever for 10). I'd make an Ondrusek for Victorino deal in a second. Losing Ondrusek shouldn't hurt much for the stretch run or the playoffs while Victorino could help a lot.

That said, Victorino isn't that clear an upgrade on the Reds' OF in true talent terms in my estimation. But he has to be worth more than Ondrusek.

*In Victorino's case he might be starting CF not 4th OF. I'm speaking in the abstract in answering that abstract question.

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