Do folks know Ramos is hitting .238 with a .331 slugging percentage in Triple A?

How the hell does he know what is "in the Twins' minds?"

It's perfectly plausible to me that they added one more quality arm to their bullpen- which was a need- for the stretch run.

It's also perfectly plausible that the team was worried about bullpen depth next year while Guerrier and Crain hit free agency while Nathan continues his rehab and Capps remains relatively affordable.

It's also perfectly plausible that the market for Ramos reflects the stats Harveys alludes to rather than the perception that he would be the centerpiece in a Lee trade. We don't know what he was worth and neither does Aaron.

Do folks know Ramos is hitting .238 with a .331 slugging percentage in Triple A?

It's less than 300 PA's and he is only 22. You can't just ignore the rest of his minor league record.

It's possible that the Twins know exactly what a save is worth, and would like the freedom to use Rauch in non-ninth-inning situations.

I find it laughable that Gleeman presumes one of the best run orgs in all of sports made such a facile mistake. Clearly they weighed the opportunity cost of trading Ramos, the chances of them making the playoffs this year and the needs of their 'pen going forward and decided to make a deal.

You could argue it was a bad deal, but on the grounds of "over valuing the save" seems pretty silly.

Aaron is right that the Twins in their PR made a big deal out of Capps becoming the closer--being, IOW, better than Rauch. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. And the Twins most assuredly can use Capps and/or any guy who is about as good as Rauch in ballpark terms. So I think this is a good trade. If the Twins PR geniuses hadn't made a big deal out of Capps closer experience and if he had just been allowed to become the closer rather than being anointed the closer, then nobody would mind either way. This is a perfectly fine deal that was oversold.

It is true, however, that in a couple years the Twins might be wondering if they shouldn't have hung on to Ramos. But pennant races are now.

I'm sure someone more knowledgeable about the Twins will correct me if I am wrong, but don't the Twins have a lot of catching depth in the minors? Trading Ramos probably isn't as big a deal for them as it would be for other teams.

I'm surprised everyone here is treating this so charitably. If the Twins really do know what a save is worth, then they should have just stuck another one of their lesser relievers in the ninth inning role and moved Rauch to the 8th. Trading a very good prospect at a talent-poor position for a non-elite player at an extremely fungible one seems misguided. The first sentence of Gleeman's piece underscores why this move seems like quite the overpay.

Even if the Twins don't need Ramos, one would think that they might have been able to turn him into a better return.

If the Twins really do know what a save is worth, then they should have just stuck another one of their relievers in the ninth inning role. Trading a very good prospect at a talent-poor position for a non-elite player at an extremely fungible one seems misguided.

Where is this abundance of cost controlled, relatively young relief pitchers with 3.5:1 K/BB ratios?

Of course Capps isn't a superstar, nor is he one of the 10 best relief pitchers in baseball. But let me reiterate- the Twins need relief pitching this year and next year more than they need another catcher.

The Twins aren't exactly hurting for solid relievers, though.

If the Twins really do know what a save is worth, then they should have just stuck another one of their lesser relievers in the ninth inning role and moved Rauch to the 8th

The 9th inning of a close game is higher leverage than the 8th inning. Closers consistently take higher leverage appearances, on average, compared to set-up relievers. The "stick your best pitcher in the 8th" is empirically flawed as a strategy.

I also have no idea how "talent-poor" and "fungible" are opposites as articulated in this post.

It's less than 300 PA's and he is only 22. You can't just ignore the rest of his minor league record.

His entire minor league record is .284/.331/.427. He batted .317 last year at AA, but with a 6-23 walk-to-strikeout ratio. This year in AAA his K-BB ratio was 12-49. The Twins radio and TV announcers have talked him up like it's a veritable crime that he's stuck behind Mauer, but frankly I think his ceiling is serviceable starting catcher for a few years. I think the Twins got about maximum value out of him.

I mean that good catchers are a rarity, whereas good relievers are often found in the most unexpected places. Sorry if that was unclear.

Also, I was unaware of that leverage data. I was partially responding to the logic of #4 in any event.

His entire minor league record is .284/.331/.427. He batted .317 last year at AA, but with a 6-23 walk-to-strikeout ratio. This year in AAA his K-BB ratio was 12-49.

You can't just combine raw stats from different leagues/levels and you need to look at league averages and park factors. He's also been relatively young for each level he's played in.

I think Ramos will be decent. I agree with Randy that his profile is solid when age and parks are accounted for, but he's not going to be Pudge Rodriguez. I would have loved to keep him around and have the option of moving Mauer to 3B to save his knees. I can also live with having Capps for this pennant race instead. The Twins can't afford to bring back Rauch, Guerrier and Crain next year, so Capps gives them insurance there, too.

Awesome fleecing for the Twins. Capps adds 26 saves to an already solid Twins bullpen, which is probably 26 more saves than Ramos could have ever had for them (this year at least). Sure, this deal *may* bite the Twins in the butts over the next 6-7 seasons, but it takes money to make money, and don't forget the Twins also get $500K in the steal deal. That extra cash is just gravy!

Capps is not the most imposing closer in baseball, but he proved he has a strong 'grit' ability by getting 27 saves with a 5.80 ERA last season. That is pretty much the definition of clutch relief pitching, and it shows Capps has that rare intangible quality: The closer mentality. As a Twins fan I'm proud that GM Bill Smith was so eager to move several mere prospects for a guy he believes will put the Twins over the top this season. All that is assuming, of course, that this was just part one of a deal to get a good starting pitcher in exchange for the gritty, clutch reliever Matt Capps.

Ramos was actually a high price to pay for the Twins, and he will surely be missed soon as Mauer requires more and more rest time. Granted, Ramos was struggling in his first season of AAA, but Nats fans should not feel too badly about getting him in this deal. Ramos is a gifted defensive receiver, and has actually shown strong offensive potential, including power hitting, in past minor league seasons. I believe that many people rated Ramos as a fairly good catching prospect, perhaps as high as #3 in all of baseball, so it's not like the Nats are getting nothing in return for their All-Star clutch reliever with the closer mentality. Still, it's now difficult to imagine anyone stopping the Juggernaut Twins with their new & moderately improved bullpen!

But let me reiterate- the Twins need relief pitching this year and next year more than they need another catcher.

Yeah, but no one thinks they should have kept Ramos. We just were hoping to get more than Matt Capps for him.

I would have loved to keep him around and have the option of moving Mauer to 3B to save his knees.

Now here's an assumption that ought to be explored. Or here are several assumptions.

1. Mauer cannot/will not continue to catch full time. He will play at some other position in the field. True or false?

2. When?

3. How much?

4. What position?

5. If Mauer is the Twins' 3B of the future, then when do you move Danny Valencia?

Personally, I'm thinking Mauer is not the Twins 3B of the future because Valencia is. I'm thinking Valencia has as much or more future ML value as Mauer does as of today or maybe as of opening day 2011. So even if #1 above is true, 3B is not his position. He's good enough to learn to play someplace where the Twins don't have a perennial all-star coming up behind him. How about keeping it simple and just say DH?

If we're playing that game, I have to believe that Joe Mauer could play a better LF than Delmon Young does.

Yeah, but no one thinks they should have kept Ramos. We just were hoping to get more than Matt Capps for him

Agreed. I was "hoping" for more, too. Hope doesn't translate that well. I guess the difference between my perception and the one in this article was that I believe the FO shopped him around and compared the different returns the could get to determine that this one helped the most, whereas Gleeman seems to imply that Rizzo called Smith and Smith went "Holy crap! We can get all those saves for a minor leaguer?? Of course I'll do it!"

There's a blurb on fangraphs that points out that everyone knew Ramos was emminently available and that hurt his trade value. He also isn't a superstar. There are positives and negatives for each guy (Ramos- young, cheap, good defender, prime position, so-so bat, questionable production, blocked; Capps- decent production, cheapish, youngish, fills a need, non-prime position, no elite talent) and when you add it all up, I think the sides are more reasonably balanced than I thought at first impression.

By the way, I think the inclusion of Ramos in Cliff Lee rumors makes this trade look a lot worse. As fans, we're thinking "Cripes, we could've just added Aaron Hicks to this guy and we'd have Cliff Lee!" In reality, Texas rejected that proposal, and even though Lee is head and shoulders (and probably chest and waist) above Capps, it would still be a short term rental, while Capps is back next year.

I guess the difference between my perception and the one in this article was that I believe the FO shopped him around and compared the different returns the could get to determine that this one helped the most, whereas Gleeman seems to imply that Rizzo called Smith and Smith went "Holy crap! We can get all those saves for a minor leaguer?? Of course I'll do it!"

I don't really think Gleeman implies that at all. There are shades of gray here. I think Gleeman is right that, if Matt Capps were the same pitcher with the same stats but pitching in the eighth inning rather than the ninth in Washington, the Twins wouldn't even consider this trade. In that sense, they probably overvalued Capps because of his saves and his label as a closer.

My opinions:

1. Mauer cannot/will not continue to catch full time. He will play at some other position in the field. True or false?

True. He has had more "wear and tear" problems this year than in the past, or we have at least heard more about them.

2. When?

3. How much?

4. What position?

That's kind of a sliding scale of how much value you want now against how much you want down the road, and nobody knows the equilibrium. I believe it's better to do it earlier rather than risk losing more value in the last few years of that contract. Off the top of my head, I say he should start splitting time in 2012 (say, 2/3 c 1/3 3b in 2012, 1/3 c 2/3 3b in 2013) and be a full time 3B by 2014.

5. If Mauer is the Twins' 3B of the future, then when do you move Danny Valencia?

I love what Valencia is giving the team right now. At the same time, I think he's one of those test cases for whether a team is prone to wish casting. Valencia is probably a 750 OPS guy at best down the road- I don't know where else he gets value if he doesn't have a ton of power or patience. His fielding is average at best. Will the team always look at a few good weeks this year as evidence that he is the man, or will they continue to try to find a solution that is better in the long term? To put it more simply- I would lose no sleep over cutting Valencia lose before he becomes expensive. In fact, if he is a tenable 3B through this year and next, I will be elated.

if Matt Capps were the same pitcher with the same stats but pitching in the eighth inning rather than the ninth in Washington, the Twins wouldn't even consider this trade. In that sense, they probably overvalued Capps because of his saves and his label as a closer.

This goes back to my earlier point- where is this abundance of fungible relief talent? Capps has a 3.5:1 K/BB ratio this year and over his career, and a FIP around 3.50. The Twins have a use for a guy like that, and I don't see the freely available heap that underlies this argument.

I'm not saying such a heap exists.

Basically, my dissatisfaction with this trade is as follows:
1) I think they overpaid for Capps. Capps is a good reliever, as you mention, but I don't think he was worth giving up Ramos. (It's worth noting that I probably have an inaccurate perception of Ramos's value, as a result of the Cliff Lee rumors.)
2) I don't think the bullpen should have been a priority over the rotation. Duensing has done well in his two starts, but they have not been against teams with good hitters, and he has not shown that he can go deep into games. (Obviously, he isn't expected to show that in his first two starts after spending half a season in the bullpen, but it's still an unknown.)
3) I'm kind of bummed about Rauch being ousted at closer, because I got a kick out of that giant coming out of the bullpen to Metallica at the end of games, covered in tattoos. This is of no real consequence, but I will miss it.

Ya'know, I get the age aspect etc but when a player hits THAT poorly relative to the league one has to wonder. And having the good fortune to see minor league games in the limited times I have seen him bat he looks completely overmatched. Sample size qualifers of course. But a .331 slugging percentage? That's beyond puny.

I am not throwing out the entire resume. But I am sure wondering what is happening that a guy folks are annoiting as a top prospect cannot hit Fielder's weight.

In reality they traded Ramos for a setup-caliber reliever who accumulated saves on bad teams and is thus overrated and soon overpaid. Among the 93 pitchers who’ve logged 150-plus relief innings in the past three calendar years, Capps ranks 38th in xFIP, 49th in FIP, 50th in ERA, 61st in strikeout rate, and 85th in opponents’ average.

Capps projects better than a "setup caliber reliever," at least according to ZIPS. Going forward, ZIPS has him with a 3.46 ERA--which is just about the same as Rafael Soriano and Brian Wilson.

2) I don't think the bullpen should have been a priority over the rotation. Duensing has done well in his two starts, but they have not been against teams with good hitters, and he has not shown that he can go deep into games. (Obviously, he isn't expected to show that in his first two starts after spending half a season in the bullpen, but it's still an unknown.)

That's a fair point. Again, there were not a lot of great options available. I guess we can just hope that Baker and Slowey get back to low 4.00 ERAs as a means of pitching improvement.

3) I'm kind of bummed about Rauch being ousted at closer, because I got a kick out of that giant coming out of the bullpen to Metallica at the end of games, covered in tattoos. This is of no real consequence, but I will miss it.

That's probably the worst result of the trade. How good would Ramos have to be to have his loss outweigh the loss of Rauch's WWE entrace? Three ASGs? Five?

Is Joe Mauer at 1B, 3B or the OF worth $23M a year? It's a no-brainer at C, but I'm more dubious at 3B

Is Joe Mauer at 1B, 3B or the OF worth $23M a year? It's a no-brainer at C, but I'm more dubious at 3B

It doesn't matter. They will be paying him that much no matter what.

He might be to the Twins, considering he's local, and the face of the franchise.

Mauer's too good to play the field? What, he thinks he's better than Yogi Berra or Johnny Bench? Kids these days.

Just on a personal level, I wouldn't trust Capps any farther than I could throw him. So in that sense, I have to think the Twins could have done better here.

Personally, I'm thinking Mauer is not the Twins 3B of the future because Valencia is. I'm thinking Valencia has as much or more future ML value as Mauer does as of today or maybe as of opening day 2011. So even if #1 above is true, 3B is not his position. He's good enough to learn to play someplace where the Twins don't have a perennial all-star coming up behind him. How about keeping it simple and just say DH?

I wish there was some place where I could wager obscene amounts of money on Joe Mauer having more future value than Danny Valencia and on Danny Valencia never making an all-star team.