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Friday, October 29, 2010
(Don’t) Give the People What They Want!
The problem is in choosing which Lee to compare him to. Lee has a 3.85 ERA career ERA. Over the last three years, his ERA was an excellent 2.98, 40 percent better than league average. We should not necessarily expect him to be that good in the future. Yankee Stadium isn’t conducive to it, the DH league isn’t conducive. Age and injury are not conducive. The universe, which despises anything that isn’t average and normal and low-energy, isn’t conducive. You give a 31-year-old lefty a five- or six-year deal, you are, unless blessed, going to get five years of 2.98 ERAs. You might not get five years of 3.50. You’re also likely to get some extended DL time.
As in any casino game, when you bet on a pitcher, the odds are slanted in favor of the house. For teams with no other options, or a team geared up to win it all now and then sink back into the second division, giving a veteran starter a lot of money for too many years is a reasonable plan. That’s what the Mets did with Pedro Martinez, paying for four years when there was only a reasonable expectation that they might get two. In the event, they got one. Cliff Lee is younger than Martinez, and perhaps he’s a better bet health-wise, but there is no way to know for certain. The Yankees have choices, some of whom will be viable big leaguers three years from now, when whichever team signs Lee is trying to figure out the best way to get rid of him. The Yankees aren’t in that position. They have alternatives, choices they’ve spent good money on. Now is the time to test them and find the next Cliff Lee, or even the next Andy Pettitte. He could be lurking somewhere in the pile, and he won’t cost a fraction of what Lee does. If the Yankees leave Lee to others, they might even get to find out who he is.
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1. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: October 29, 2010 at 11:22 AM (#3679151)Not entirely surprising position from Goldman, but considering that we are discussing the Yankees: (a) which have more money to spend than any other team in MLB;
(b) Have a clear need for a top-of-the-line starter for the next 5 years (their rotation is SAbathia, Pettitte if he doesn't retire, Hughes and then Burnett and whatever kid comes out from the pile); and,
(c) Have an aging core and a need to go for it while that core is still around,
I think Goldman thought he was writing about Tampa Bay or something.
I do agree with Goldman; the team that signs Lee is going to be disappointed.
I do agree with Goldman; the team that signs Lee is going to be disappointed.
That's crazy. The offense will be plenty good. Cano, Texeira, Granderson, Swisher, and Gardner are all 30 or younger. ARod and Posada can still hit.
Why would you trade Swisher and Gardner? They're two of your better, under 30 players at reasonable contracts. Swisher is almost as good as Werth, and substantially cheaper. Gardner makes the minimum and just put up a 4 WAR season, despite being hurt in the second half.
Lee is much better than any pitcher you're going to get in a trade. Keep it simple and sign Lee.
As long as you can get Lee for ~5/100, he'll be a good signing. Mussina got almost that much 8 or 9 years ago.
Pitchers don't follow standard aging curves. We've seen plenty of guys pitch with success into their late 30's and early 40's.
If you give a pitcher 5 years, expect to lose one to injury, whether he's 25 or 33, that's just the nature of pitching.
There has been some speculation about a 6 year deal. If that ever materializes as Lee's asking price, I would hope the Yankees pass.
I agree that "none of the above" is the favorite, but Werth makes a ton more sense for the Yankees.
He's RH, and Granderson, and Gardner (to a lesser extent) could be platooned. They could do a 4 man OF/half DH rotation with Werth/Swisher/Granderson/Gardner, with the rest of the DH position going to Posada and ARod. Crawford wouldn't allow that b/c he's LH.
I know you were careful to say "30 or younger," but it's only fair to point out that Teix is already 30, Swisher will be 30 in less than a month and Granderson will turn 30 before Opening Day. I don't think you're wrong to say that the Yankees' offense should be okay or better next season, but the core is aging and most of the lineup is in its decline phase rather than prime.
Except for his brief stint with the Phillies, hasn't Lee been pitching in the AL his whole career? You know, the one with the DH.
I've always had the opinion that the opposite is true. A guy who throws 96 can still get by throwing 91-92, a guy dropping from 91 to 87 has to have control that is off the charts to succeed.
You point out some guys that did age well and I'm working off perception rather than any sort of study so I'll concede I may be wrong. And of course "off the charts" probably does not even begin to describe Lee who body type aside reminds me a lot of David Wells who aged very well.
Ah hell, I don't know what I'm talking about, pass the bourbon.
True. Remember Randy Johnson? I've always wondered what kind of career he could have put together if his back hadn't gone out on him back in '98.
We've seen the pitcher Lee is when he throws in the high 80s; that's how hard he threw prior to '08.
30 is not really "decline phase". The guy was talking about the offense in 2011-12.
I wouldn't expect much decline from Tex/Cano/Swisher/Granderson/Gardner in that window.
Posada's only there for one more year, can still hit, and the replacement(s) is on hand in Montero, and later Romine and Sanchez.
The big wildcard is ARod. He could plateau, he could bounce back (further removed from hip problems) or he could decline.
This is completely false.
He was also walking more batters back then. I guess the argument could be that he's more willing to throw in the strike zone with a higher velocity.
a guy dropping from 91 to 87 has to have control that is off the charts to succeed.
0.8 BB/9 seems off the charts to me, though that is only for the past season. I dunno, I just have a hunch that a long contract to Lee is not going to be an issue at all, so I'm really hoping he goes somewhere other than the Yankees.
I am assuming that Jeter, Arod, Posada (as DH) will all be worse than last saeson.
Not that sure about Tex; when he is slumping he looks like anyone can get hinm out with any non-fastball. Can someone out there better than me at this stuff give a breakdown of how Tex does by pitch type?
They need a pticher - assuming they don't sign Lee (too expensive), the best way to get one would be to trade a starting OFer and then sign Crawford or Werth. (Crawford if they trade Gardner, Swisher if they sign Werth)
And let Montero start.
is that so crazy?
Funny thing to say about a guy who's been traded 3 times in 2 seasons. :-)
On a more serious note, Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Santana, Peavy, Haren have all been traded over the last few years. Not sure who might be on the market this year (Zambrano and Dempster are possibilities; Carpenter is due $16 M next year with a $15 M team option for 2012). Lee is better than those guys but also going to cost more for more years.
Anyway, top pitchers get traded all the time.
Funny thing to say about a guy who's been traded 3 times in 2 seasons. :-)
My unstated subtext was "...for Swisher or Gardner".
Snapper - not swisher AND Gardner; swisher OR gardner.
I am assuming that Jeter, Arod, Posada (as DH) will all be worse than last saeson.
Not that sure about Tex; when he is slumping he looks like anyone can get hinm out with any non-fastball. Can someone out there better than me at this stuff give a breakdown of how Tex does by pitch type?
They need a pticher - assuming they don't sign Lee (too expensive), the best way to get one would be to trade a starting OFer and then sign Crawford or Werth. (Crawford if they trade Gardner, Swisher if they sign Werth)
And let Montero start.
is that so crazy?
Werth and Crawford just aren't that much better than Swisher and Gardner to be worth giving ~$100M contracts.
Jeter is likely to have at least a deadcat bounce, Posada should be similar (maybe better if DH-ing more saves his body). ARod could go either way, but I'm far from convinced he'll be worse.
If they don't get Lee, I'd go for one of the injury bounceback SPs (Webb, Young) and supplement that with Joba back to starting and Nova.
I'm fairly certain that power pitchers age better than control pitchers. I thought there was data to back this up.
While you can construct an argument either way, the most logical starting point is to assume that all athletes get worse at things as they get older. When a control pitcher starts to lose control due to age, he's dead meat. When a power pitcher loses his fastball, he might still be able to get people out.
Same with speedy hitters. It's been shown that fast guys age better, but people still want to say, "When his speed goes, he's done."
There is. Reams.
Then I guess Pitch f/x is playing an elaborate prank on us all.
No one says this about Bonds or Beltran, they say it about Alex Sanchez. And it's absolutely true, no matter how players who bring speed in addition to actual baseball skills age.
As #25 say, reams. Further, it's not precisely power pitchers. K rate predicts pitcher longevity better than anything else, and it doesn't appear to matter much what type of pitcher you're talking about. If you limit the discussion to only pitchers with excellent control, the ones with the highest K rates are the best bets for longevity. If you're only talking wild pitcher, ditto. It was the clearest finding in James' study on aging.
Gary Huckabay (who blew his arm out pitching semi-pro ball) speculated that the reason is that the more marginal a pitcher's stuff, the more pitches he has to throw at or close to maximum effort. Truth is though that we don't know why.
And even then, the specific pitcher seems to trump general aging concerns. If he was healthy at 35, there's no particular reason to sweat 36.
There are a lot of things about baseball that turned out to be counter-intuitive, to me, but I think this one squares with my instincts. I know a lot of other people feel differently. But I think it's sort of related to why guys can be big stars in college basketball but not have the physical gifts to make it in the NBA. You reach a point at which you really kind of know what you're doing, and beyond that you can only go as far as your physical gifts will take you. Little improvements in understanding can be made around the margins as you get older, but in the end, Greg Maddux is still, in essence, throwing sinkers and changeups at the outside corner. When the sinker is 88 and the changeup is 75, that works fine. When it's 84 and 75, it's not nearly so effective. Meanwhile, the guys with greater gifts continue to learn as well, and they have more material to work with. Eventually the "sports knowledge" part kind of evens out; when the physical gifts start to fade, the guys who throw harder or wickeder stuff are better able to compensate.
It's also possible that people are forced to learn when their tools are no longer the best in the world, and the guys who throw harder or whatever are able to make up more ground on that front. But I do think that players reach a point of diminishing returns when it comes to understanding the game better than other guys do, and that feels right to me.
But if Lee drops off from his age 30 peak to where Maddux was what happens? Maddux was starting from a much higher point so naturally as he regressed he still remained very good. Lee's ERA+ the last three years is 142, Maddux for the same age range was 194. Maddux for the next five years was 152 which if I'm doing this right is a 22% decline. A similar decline by Lee would put him at 111 ERA+ for the next five years. Very good but not spectacular.
Given what the Yankees were putting on the mound, very good would be a significant upgrade. Most teams, of course, cannot afford to pay for "great" while only getting very good. The Yankees could get away with it.
The problem lies in the fact that the Yankees will be expecting great, and when they don't get it, they will turn on him.
The effect can be illustrated easily by taking it to an extreme. Suppose a pitcher allows 2 runs in 180 IP for an ERA of 0.10. League average is 4.50. His ERA+ is 4500. Now add just one more run which comes to an ERA of 0.15. His ERA+ is 3000, a one-third percentage drop for just one run.
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