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Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Goldman: Robinson Cano’s agent switch may doom the Yankees

Goldman has correctly predicted 20 of the last 0 bad Yankee seasons!

If… [Robinson] Cano is insistent on foregoing free agency, maybe the Yankees will get a deal done now instead of next winter, and perhaps they’ll get off (say) five-percent cheaper than they would have had Cano actually solicited outside offers… If that is the bottom line, it’s bad news for the Yankees. Cano is a very good player, albeit one who sometimes seems as if he’s just going through the motions, but he’s also a relatively slow player at the physically demanding position of second base. For the most part, second basemen do not descend from their peak in slow, gentle fashion—they fall off hard. Given Cano’s lack of speed, when he loses half a step, and that’s likely to happen somewhere in the next three or four years, it’s really going to tell.

As long as the Yankees were prepared to keep spending $200 million or more on players, they could survive contracts like [Alex] Rodriguez’s, but as the team’s current lineup suggests, if you’re going to draw the line on payroll but have huge blocks of it tied up in just a few players, your flexibility vanishes. The Yankees have seven players making $15 million or more this season, including Cano. In the absence of a fertile farm yielding above-average, minimum-salary players, you have no ability to cope with injuries, free-agent defections, or players aging out of their value. There is little to do but wait for the contracts to end and hope the farm system can cover the gaps.

The Yankees are in that position now. A second baseman in his thirties is that situation waiting to happen. Cano has been of great value to the Yankees. Albert Pujols was of great value to the Cardinals and Josh Hamilton was of great value to the Rangers, and yet both were willing to move on rather than get stuck with the players’ decline phases. The Yankees shouldn’t be any different in this regard. Being in New York doesn’t make them immune to the realities of player age and injury, and now that they’ve gotten budget-conscious, it doesn’t protect them from their own mistakes, either.

The irony of Cano being represented by [Scott] Boras was that, as much as they might have dreaded dealing with him, had he succeeded in getting Cano to test the market, he might have protected the Yankees from their own self-destructive impulses. Now that he’s gone and Cano has, presumably, more conciliatory representatives in Jay-Z and [Brodie] Van Wagenen, they’re in much deeper trouble.

The District Attorney Posted: April 02, 2013 at 02:42 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: robinson cano, scott boras, yankees

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   1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: April 02, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4402184)
Albert Pujols was of great value to the Cardinals and Josh Hamilton was of great value to the Rangers, and yet both were willing to move on rather than get stuck with the players’ decline phases. The Yankees shouldn’t be any different in this regard.


The Yanks have more money to play with than either team (bigger market) and they have a lot less young talent on the way up (especially position-player-wise) than either team. It sure seems like they should re-sign Cano and pay him a lot.
   2. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: April 02, 2013 at 03:20 PM (#4402192)
Goldman has correctly predicted 20 of the last 0 bad Yankee seasons!


Goldman was good at first ... but then he went too far!
   3. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: April 02, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4402200)
This seems to completely ignore the fact that the Yankees that "draw the line on payroll" are really only the 2013 Yankees because of the luxury tax stuff.
   4. SG Posted: April 02, 2013 at 03:28 PM (#4402203)
It also ignores the fact that free agent classes are getting weaker and weaker and if you let someone like Cano go what will you spend his money on?

Maybe we should wait until he's actually signed before pillorying his contract?
   5. Nasty Nate Posted: April 02, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4402218)
...if you let someone like Cano what will you spend his money on?


Even if they sign Cano, they still face the question. The answer is trading for guys under contract with other teams (e.g. next year's J Upton, Crawford, A Gonzalez etc) and/or sign non-American guys (Darvish, Cespedes). The newish trend of stars not reaching free agency after their initial 6 years will not negate the ability to use money to acquire talent.
   6. Dale Sams Posted: April 02, 2013 at 04:09 PM (#4402258)
2014 (if lucky)

3b ARod
ss Jeter
2b
1b Teix
C Cervelli
lf Gardner
cf Ellsbury
rf Ichiro
DH Wells

Sabathia
Kuroda (?)
Pineda
Hughes

CL Robertson

wow.
   7. SG Posted: April 02, 2013 at 04:12 PM (#4402260)
Hughes is a free agent so cross him off. Add Phelps and Nova to the rotation I guess.
   8. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 02, 2013 at 04:13 PM (#4402262)
It also ignores the fact that free agent classes are getting weaker and weaker and if you let someone like Cano go what will you spend his money on?


Alfonso Soriano will be available.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: April 02, 2013 at 04:47 PM (#4402319)
But that payroll in #6, depending on what Ellsbury, Jeter and Kuroda cost is only around $140-150 M. That lineup still has $40-50 M to spend which is Cano and a couple of starters.

The Yanks have pretty well achieved their goal for 2014 given where the current payroll is. They've got $70-80 M to spend this offseason without going over the cap next year.

By the way, the Cards reportedly offered Pujols 10/$200. They were happy to sign on to his decline phase, they just weren't willing to go as high as the Angels.
   10. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: April 02, 2013 at 05:15 PM (#4402353)
Really best case Austin or Williams or someone really breaks out this year and they can throw money at the rotation rather than Ellsbury, but their top prospects seem pretty young.
   11. Quaker Posted: April 02, 2013 at 05:24 PM (#4402374)
OH NO! They'd be doomed to have one of the better or best 2b in the game.

How will the Yankees win the $$/WAR championship with a good player on a market value contract??!?!??!?
   12. JE (Jason) Posted: April 02, 2013 at 05:54 PM (#4402414)
Hang on: SG is not Steven Goldman?
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: April 02, 2013 at 06:09 PM (#4402434)
By the way, the Cards reportedly offered Pujols 10/$200. They were happy to sign on to his decline phase, they just weren't willing to go as high as the Angels.


That is the real point. The Yankees shouldn't be worried about his decline phase, they should be worried about whether it's worth the cost that it takes to keep him. Teams should always do the math on what they are willing to spend and stick to it, without allowing the pr cost of losing the player to change their plans.
   14. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: April 02, 2013 at 06:23 PM (#4402444)
Brian Kenny just said Cano is worth 8/252 according to projected WAR market value. Yikes.
   15. JE (Jason) Posted: April 02, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4402449)
Brian Kenny just said Cano is worth 8/252 according to projected WAR market value. Yikes.

And what did Harold say in response?
   16. boteman Posted: April 02, 2013 at 08:44 PM (#4402566)
And what did Harold say in response?

As loud as he could muster he screamed, "PAY THE MAN!!!! JUST PAY HIM!!!!"
   17. Walt Davis Posted: April 02, 2013 at 10:13 PM (#4402691)
What's the $/WAR value behind that?

It would cover ages 31-38. From 31-38, Carew had 31 WAR, one third of it in his age 31 season. Morgan 41, Kent 34, Whitaker 32, Biggio 30, Grich 24, Lopes/Sandberg/Randolph 23, White 21, Alomar 20, Polanco/Velarde/Grudz/Boone 18. I'll throw in Molitor 35, Brett 29, Will Clark 17, Billy Williams 26 as reasonably similar hitters (off the top of my head).

From 27-29, he's behind Utley, Morgan and Carew but way ahead of the rest of those guys (e.g. Biggio at 15). I'm going with 35 WAR as the healthy projection which makes $252 a little over $7/WAR. Looks much too high to me when the risk of injury and defensive decline are added.
   18. RollingWave Posted: April 02, 2013 at 10:30 PM (#4402709)
The Yankees isn't going to be able to go into reboot mode anyway even if they don't sign him, unless someone completely goes into unthinkable territory with a deal the Yankees will resign Cano. And they should, as pointed out, he's well on a HOF trajectory, (more so than Teixera was really. though obviously not quite as obvious as Jeter / Arod). He's a player they developed, and he's generally been pretty clean off the field (PED allegations pending, but at least outside of that...)

The Yankees are going to look ugly this year in most likihood (then again, they've always pulled out miraculous in season out of no where players to save them, so who knows.) But after this they should be ok again.
   19. Yastrzemski in left. Posted: April 02, 2013 at 11:09 PM (#4402782)
Ellsbury a Yankee? Never happen. He's no Johnny Damon.
   20. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 02, 2013 at 11:14 PM (#4402787)
Ellsbury a Yankee? Never happen. He's no Johnny Damon.

I'd have no issue with this. Let the Jackie Bradley Jr. CF era begin!
   21. RollingWave Posted: April 02, 2013 at 11:22 PM (#4402798)
I would figure that the Yankees OF next year would probably be Tyler Austin / Brett Gardner / Ichiro Suzuki. that's super light in the Home Run department but it is pretty fast and they should get on base ok and defend well. between the 3 they probably steal over 100 bases if they remain healthy most year.



   22. Cowboy Popup Posted: April 02, 2013 at 11:23 PM (#4402800)
I would figure that the Yankees OF next year would probably be Tyler Austin

When do you think they would call Austin up? To start the year?
   23. RollingWave Posted: April 02, 2013 at 11:53 PM (#4402814)
depend on how he does in the minors this year obviously, Trenton is always hell on hitters but Austin's skill set is more like a better Brett Gardner which helps.

I would figure if there's any spot on the field that the Yankees can reasonably fill with a prospect that won't be a huge drop off it's Austin in the corner (or somebody, ANYBODY behind the plate.)

But the Yankees farm have been highly inconsistent these last couple years. a lot of players randomly have good / bad years. though Austin looks like the closet thing to a legit starter in the bigs with the least question marks

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