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Monday, May 30, 2011

Goldman: What the Heck is an RBI Whore?

Earlier today, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Mets manager Terry Collins has encouraged Carlos Beltran to be selfish in RBI situations:

Since baseball is an individual game wrapped in a team concept, selfishness by Beltran and Reyes actually could be a good thing. I heard that with Wright and Ike Davis out of the lineup and Jason Bay still in freefall, Terry Collins actually went to Beltran recently and told the switch-hitter to get greedy in RBI situations. The Mets manager liberated Beltran to essentially become an RBI whore.

As Craig Calcaterra suggested, the whole concept of the “RBI whore” is questionable, because when is a player trying not to drive in a run in an RBI situation? This is not “Bartleby, the Ballplayer”—no hitter, confronted with ducks on the pond, says, “I would prefer not to.” The only possibility I can think of is that Collins is suggesting that Beltran expand his strike zone with runners on, hack away instead of taking close pitches and working a walk. This hasn’t been a big issue for Beltran so far—he’s taken all of eight walks in 53 PAs with runners in scoring position, leaving him swinging away 85 percent of the time. Still, it’s possible that Collins is gripped by the same questionable thinking that confronted Ted Williams back in his day, that a walk taken with runners in scoring position was a wasted opportunity.

This kind of logic would seem to avoid a great deal of complexity in both batter mindset, the idea that more baserunners equal more runs, and so on. In any case, a great deal of the potential for whoredom is out of the hands of the batter. You can’t be an “RBI whore” unless your team propositions you. Driving in runs is a matter of opportunity. Solo home runs aside, no hitter, be he Babe Ruth or Rey Ordonez, can plate a runner who isn’t on base.

...So, we’re back to the beginning. Carlos Beltran can’t be an RBI slut, he can only be Carlos Beltran. Were he to expand his strike zone, he would only diminish his value to the team, and in any case, he needs more than 126 baserunners to really throw his morals out the window. Or, to put this another way, Terry Collins is just not a good manager.

Thanks to Barnald the Bebhinn.

Repoz Posted: May 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, projections, sabermetrics

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   1. TVerik Posted: May 30, 2011 at 01:07 PM (#3840836)
because when is a player trying not to drive in a run in an RBI situation?


I've seen it multiple times over the years. If a player hits a leadoff double in the late innings and then the bottom of the order comes up, the batter is told to do a sacrifice hit or a "productive out", getting the runner to third in a tight game. This is not an isolated incident; without looking it up, I suspect that somewhere around 1/8 or 1/10 ABs with a runner in scoring position are designed for a result other than driving in the run.
   2. GregD Posted: May 30, 2011 at 02:20 PM (#3840849)
Terry Collins is just not a good manager
Goldman is great, but this is an unserious statement. I get that it's hard to write columns. If you just point out that an insignificant comment is silly, then the column's purpose seems to evaporate. So you have to inflate its importance to make the column seem worthwhile.

But 1) if he wrote that we knew a player's value definitively this early, we'd all laugh out loud, and the same is likely true for managers (except those at the far extreme), 2) there's other reasons this season to be impressed with Collins, 3) few strategies, even if followed in practice not just in rhetoric, are so bad that they alone would prove a manager's failure regardless of his other strengths, and 4) if Collins is indeed bad, it's likely to be for reasons that have nothing to do with this.

I don't know if Collins is a good manager or not, but Goldman pretty obviously doesn't either, and it's too bad he this time didn't have the clarity to say the truth: Collins' comment is silly if looked at in one way, innocuous if looked at more generally, and we'll see. But I'm sure Goldman's next column will be a good one.
   3. ecwcat Posted: May 30, 2011 at 02:48 PM (#3840863)
Derek Jeter lays down the bunt or tries to make a productive out (usually it's a double play, though) instead of swinging for a HR or double.

Don't know why Goldman thinks the concept of an RBI whore is so hard to swallow.

Goldman has been bad since he got sick.
   4. Tricky Dick Posted: May 30, 2011 at 03:39 PM (#3840889)
I'm not sure what "greedy" means in the context of RBIs. If a guy swings for a grand slam, is that more or less greedy than trying to hit a ground single up the middle? I am guessing that Collins is trying to get Beltran to expand his strike zone with RISP, because that seems to be a common suggestion from managers. It may not be a good idea; I suppose it depends on the batter. I recall time periods when a key hitter is out of the Astros' lineup and you could tell that Lance Berkman would expand his strike zone with runners on base. And the results were usually bad when he got away from his normal plate discipline, sometimes seeming to send him into a slump.
   5. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 30, 2011 at 04:09 PM (#3840910)
Since Goldman asked...

RBI whore, hacking on slop,
swinging at crap, make rallies stop.
RBI whore, using up outs #####.
Why can't you take a damn pitch?

Chasing pitches out of the strike zone
Sac-flying a lot, but walks fail to draw,
Do it so much, lots of false praise you get,
Carry on the back of the ones who gets on base

RBI Whore.
   6. JoMo the master pitch framer Posted: May 30, 2011 at 05:59 PM (#3840940)
Goldman's been tying hard to be Sheehan. It's just not working. I dunno what it is, but it's just off-kilter.
   7. Ron J Posted: May 30, 2011 at 06:31 PM (#3840963)
#3 Arne Olson used the term "RBI vulture". Guys who don't walk much (particularly with runners on/in scoring position) will often drive in more runs than you'd expect. But their teams don't get anything noticeable out of it. They're generally not particularly good at reaching scoring position themselves and thus don't create many opportunities for the guys following them.
   8. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: May 30, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3840976)
A walk is less valuable when the corpse formerly known as Jason Bay is the guy hitting behind you. That's logic.
   9. Obo Posted: May 30, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3840978)
The archetype of the "RBI vulture" might be long-time rec.sport.baseball favorite Joe Carter. Not a bad player, but not as good as his RBI totals made him look. (Speaking of rsbb and JC, searching for "rlm" on baseball-reference still takes you to Carter's page.)

I think #5 defined "RBI whore" pretty well.
   10. Ron J Posted: May 30, 2011 at 06:58 PM (#3840987)
#8 In theory you could get a minor gain if you have (say) 6 hitters/3 passengers and you bat the vulture 6th (with the passengers 7-9)

But it's a really marginal gain.
   11. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: May 30, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#3841015)
Wasn't it a legend that Earl Weaver would fine his pitchers for throwing a strike to some Yankee whenever there were runners on? I thought it was Nettles, but his SO numbers are low; maybe it was Reggie Jackson?
   12. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: May 30, 2011 at 07:40 PM (#3841026)

A walk is less valuable when the corpse formerly known as Jason Bay is the guy hitting behind you. That's logic.


That's about it. I could do without Goldman's snark. A hitter ought to expand his zone in order to drive in runs provided the batter(s) behind him are significantly less effective. I'm not certain how pronounced the disparity has to be (it's common in Little League. It might require something like Pujols at the plate with 1 out and Rey Ordonez on deck and Mario Mendoza in the hole.) Point being, there's a place for the RBI vulture, and there's very definitely a place for expanding the zone for "RBI Whoring" in some lineups. As the offensive context goes down, this would seem to make more sense.
   13. Ron J Posted: May 30, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#3841032)
#11 I've never heard that. And I'm pretty sure it's not mentioned in either of Weaver's books.

I do know Rogers Hornsby would fine his pitchers for throwing an 0-2 strike. (Or so it's claimed in one of the Hall of Shame books)

Even if it worked (as in called third strike would be a fine)
   14. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: May 30, 2011 at 08:13 PM (#3841048)
Bill Buckner struck me as an RBI vulture during his Boston days.
   15. Obo Posted: May 30, 2011 at 08:33 PM (#3841061)
Bill Buckner struck me as an RBI vulture during his Boston days.

Heck of a TBI guy too. Decent average, low walks, doubles power, and hitting behind Wade Boggs (and Dwight Evans?) will do that. James had a pithy comment about this in one of his abstracts.
   16. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 30, 2011 at 09:09 PM (#3841078)
What the heck is an RBI whore? I imagine it involves paying Joe Carter a sum of money to meet you in a hotel room and obey your command to "Touch 'em all, Joe!"
   17. Downtown Bookie Posted: May 30, 2011 at 10:41 PM (#3841099)
“RBI whore”
"RBI slut"


I'm not sure what exactly these terms mean, but I'd bet calling somebody these things on the air will get you suspended by MSNBC.

DB
   18. Walt Davis Posted: May 31, 2011 at 06:15 AM (#3841357)
RBI whore : Basketball Jones :: Avril Lavigne : Kung Fu Fighting
   19. ptodd Posted: May 31, 2011 at 08:44 AM (#3841364)
Driving in runs is a matter of opportunity.


But some make more of the opportunities than others.

BP has a stat called OBI% which shows the best and worst players in RBI opportunities. While some players seem to move up and down in a random manner y2y, others are consistently at the top or bottom.
   20. The District Attorney Posted: May 31, 2011 at 11:21 AM (#3841376)
And how much does it differ from SLG?
   21. toratoratora Posted: May 31, 2011 at 12:37 PM (#3841407)
Wasn't it a legend that Earl Weaver would fine his pitchers for throwing a strike to some Yankee whenever there were runners on? I thought it was Nettles, but his SO numbers are low; maybe it was Reggie Jackson?


I've never heard that one either and I'm a native Baltimorean, born and bred, and surrounded by hard core O's fans/Weaver devotees. The idea seems kind of antithetical to Weavers base strategy regarding not making outs, so I would be a bit leery of it...
   22. Moeball Posted: May 31, 2011 at 09:17 PM (#3841799)
As Pogo would say in the comics "We have met the enemy and they is us!"

Did I get into a time warp somehow and it's 1948 or something? I thought the year was 2011 but I'm hearing the same crap Ted Williams had to put up with more than 60 or even 70 years ago. And Mike Schmidt heard the same crap, and Frank Thomas, and Barry Bonds, and...this kind of silliness has been going on for well over half a century? Have we learned nothing? Are people really that ignorant?

Here's the main thing to remember whenever anyone criticizes a player for NOT expanding his strike zone with runners on base - what they are REALLY saying is that the batter on deck will kill the rally anyway, so swing away and see if you can do some damage now before they come up. In which case, why isn't everyone heaping tons of crap on the next batter who everyone in the park knows is going to kill the rally? Why does the manager even have this guy in the lineup?

When you hear a manager complain that a player doesn't swing at enough pitches outside the strike zone...it's time to fire the manager IMMEDIATELY.
   23. Something Other Posted: May 31, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3841818)
Terry Collins is just not a good manager
Goldman is great, but this is an unserious statement. I get that it's hard to write columns. If you just point out that an insignificant comment is silly, then the column's purpose seems to evaporate. So you have to inflate its importance to make the column seem worthwhile.
But 1) if he wrote that we knew a player's value definitively this early, we'd all laugh out loud, and the same is likely true for managers (except those at the far extreme), 2) there's other reasons this season to be impressed with Collins, 3) few strategies, even if followed in practice not just in rhetoric, are so bad that they alone would prove a manager's failure regardless of his other strengths, and 4) if Collins is indeed bad, it's likely to be for reasons that have nothing to do with this.

I don't know if Collins is a good manager or not, but Goldman pretty obviously doesn't either, and it's too bad he this time didn't have the clarity to say the truth: Collins' comment is silly if looked at in one way, innocuous if looked at more generally, and we'll see. But I'm sure Goldman's next column will be a good one.
You seem to be taking some writerly rhetoric fairly seriously, yourself...

If Collins really doesn't understand how runs are scored and baseball games are won, and is simply handing a time-stained cliche to his best hitter, who has taken all of 8 BBs in 53 RBI-PAs, that's a pretty bad thing. It's not conclusive of managerial incompetence, but it's surely one of the symptoms. Collins should know better.

edit: a recent MLB headline refers to Dillon Gee as Gee-unit. Please, god, no.

And FRoddy finished the 7-3 win in Pittsburgh? Collins really IS a bad manager. I guess there's just going to let it vest. !@#%@$%#!

And post 24 will be amusing, in a Repozian kinda way. How did that meme get started, anyway?
   24. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: May 31, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3841819)
FTFA:
This is not “Bartleby, the Ballplayer”—no hitter, confronted with ducks on the pond, says, “I would prefer not to.”


Wikipedia:
Bartleby, the Scrivener: A Story of Wall Street is a novella by the American novelist Herman Melville (1819–1891). It first appeared anonymously in two parts in the November and December 1853 editions of Putnam's Magazine, and was reprinted with minor textual alterations in his
The Piazza Tales
in 1856.


Chass: MELVILLE HAD BACKNE, ABUSED WHALE OIL, MR PRESIDENT
   25. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: June 01, 2011 at 02:27 AM (#3842143)

Here's the main thing to remember whenever anyone criticizes a player for NOT expanding his strike zone with runners on base - what they are REALLY saying is that the batter on deck will kill the rally anyway, so swing away and see if you can do some damage now before they come up. In which case, why isn't everyone heaping tons of crap on the next batter who everyone in the park knows is going to kill the rally? Why does the manager even have this guy in the lineup?

When you hear a manager complain that a player doesn't swing at enough pitches outside the strike zone...it's time to fire the manager IMMEDIATELY.


Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!? So, a manager is stuck with a shoddy roster and plays the best lineup he can. Said lineup still includes a significant dropoff, so he encourages his best bat to alter his approach to as to compensate for said shoddy roster construction. For this, the MANAGER should be fired? Not the GM, who assembled the damn team? A manager is doing his job in this scenario: trying to win games.
   26. Something Other Posted: June 01, 2011 at 07:54 AM (#3842263)
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!? So, a manager is stuck with a shoddy roster and plays the best lineup he can. Said lineup still includes a significant dropoff, so he encourages his best bat to alter his approach to as to compensate for said shoddy roster construction. For this, the MANAGER should be fired? Not the GM, who assembled the damn team? A manager is doing his job in this scenario: trying to win games.
Firing a manager based on this seems excessive to me, too, but a manager has to know how fixed almost every player's approach is, and it's close to impossible to substantively, successfully change that approach, especially with any rapidity. I can see going quietly to a player you have confidence in and saying something like, "by the way, Bay's struggling and we need runs. If you can loosen up a little with ducks on, without hurting your game, go for it." How much better, though, is Beltran going to really be if he swings at more pitches? It's taken him 8861 pro plate appearances and tens of thousands of BP swings to arrive at the combination of talent, reflexes, and theory that is the best he imagines he can do. Is that really at all likely to change for the better, and isn't there some risk the player will perform less well?

It'd be interesting to run the numbers, and figure out how much better Beltran would have to hit in order to make up for the lower run expectancy of his taking fewer walks. How many more pitches would he have to swing at and connect with, and at what BABIP, to let the experiment succeed? I'm sure we have data somewhere on how Beltran hits when a pitch is 0.1" to, say, 3.0" outside the strike zone. Maybe he's great in those cases and needs to swing at more of those pitches. Maybe he's crap on those pitches. As a manager that's something I'd want to check before urging a player to change his approach.
   27. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: June 01, 2011 at 02:20 PM (#3842378)
@26:
I can see going quietly to a player you have confidence in and saying something like, "by the way, Bay's struggling and we need runs. If you can loosen up a little with ducks on, without hurting your game, go for it."


This is about all that I think Collins is really asking of Beltran. I agree with you that messing with Beltran's approach in a wholesale way - think of the way the Twins messed with David Ortiz - would be foolhardy considering Beltran's body of work. However, I think it's very reasonable to ask a player to adjust his approach and try to put the ball in play a bit more. I'm certain Beltran has a sense of when he wants to expand his zone, and how to do it (think of a two strike approach.)

I think a very quick and dirty way to measure whether or not it's worth it for a player to expand his zone is to see how much SLG would need to be added to compensate for any possible loss in BA/OBP based on the new approach.

I agree with you on wanting to see the data! I ran through a quick Googlin', and this was the best which turned up.
   28. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: June 01, 2011 at 03:40 PM (#3842445)
a recent MLB headline refers to Dillon Gee as Gee-unit. Please, god, no.

I mean, really. Gee-Force is sitting right there... I'd settle for Gee- String too.

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