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Monday, October 29, 2007
So Healey wants A-Rod on the Mets. Holy helldogs, I want every 45 by Minnesota Marv Blihovde & The Vanguards…but it ain’t happening.
Sign A-Rod watch him make the Mets must-see TV on ESPN (and make Steve Phillips look silly in the process, which should be incentive enough for any Mets fan to urge ownership to roll the dice) hit home runs and rewrite history. Would be refreshing to see a Mets player do that for once.
Give him his tent, move Wright to first base, and pay him his gazillion dollars. The Mets fan loves David Wright, but the baseball fans will come from miles around to see A-Rod set records. People who would never even look at a Mets jersey will shell out 200 bucks for a Mets black uni with a “3” on the back. A-Rod might be a primadonna, but he respects Willie Randolph and will play for him and represent the organization well.
He just might get the Mets back to the postseasson in the process, their first-ever MVP and perhaps, allow the team to make enough money to woo Santana next offseason.
Repoz
Posted: October 29, 2007 at 12:44 PM | 59 comment(s)
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1. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: October 29, 2007 at 01:07 PM (#2598527)And Wright's too short for 1B.
People forget that his little powow with Boras was spent in southern California. I bet Scotty took that time to sell the area to him. This, combined with LAA's need for a bat has me thinking that he signs with the Angels before November 15th.
Boras picked the wrong time to tout the merits of SoCal.
Were the Newport Beach Mercedes dealerships and jewlery stores spared?
But, true, that's a good point.
Actually, I think he timed those meetings pretty well. Rodriguez was in LA before the fires really got out of hand. Boras was in Miami last week.
And maybe I'll get a horsie for my very own for Christmas!
Signing A-Rod will be expensive, yes. But the alternative, bringing back the same club -- coaching staff and all -- that chocked away the NL East, a batter alternative?
The Mets don't have the talent (and can't spare what they do have) to deal for a top of the rotation starter. Going the scrap heap route did not work in 2007. Going out and getting the best player in baseball to build around makes far better sense, IMO.
Yeah. And so am I.
Titles of columns you'll see written by Heavey this offseason:
"Mets should trade for Santana"
"Mets should acquire Haren"
"Mets should get Webb"
"Mets should clone Wright"
If you want to pay a huge chunk of the money he's owed for 2008, he is. Just add that to the total cost of signing A-Rod, I suppose. Delgado had a sub-par 2007, and is coming off a late-season broken hand. Teams will just be lining up to pay him $16M in 2008, I'm sure.
Wright is a sub-par defensive third baseman,
False. He makes too many errors, but he has excellent range and on the whole is an above-average (and improving) third baseman.
and frankly, the next seven years of A-Rod are far more measurable than that same span of Reyes (if A-Rod really wants to play SS)
So we're going to move Jose Reyes, a superlative defensive player, to make room for a guy it is doubtful can even play the position passably any longer? Makes sense to me!
Going the scrap heap route did not work in 2007. Going out and getting the best player in baseball to build around makes far better sense, IMO.
It would be a wonderful strategy . . . if the net effect wasn't adding a left fielder in 2008 and a first baseman thereafter. Because that's what it would mean: moving David Wright to the OF next year, and either Wright or A-Rod to 1B in 2009 and thereafter. And either player has a lot less value as a corner OFer or first baseman.
You take advantage of moments of opportunity, when the right opportunity arises. You don't panic and make the wrong move.
putting arod at third or short on the mets is so dumb i can't even believe how dumb. i mean the idea sound like it come from the mind of terry schiavo. if you gotta have his prima donnaness on the team, makes more sense to eat most of delgado's contract and trade him and put mr moneybags at first.
arod is 100% about the money and he a no argument about it mercenary and he'll go to whoever pays him the most money and he'll play first. or put him in left. or right. whatever
but i got a feeling he is going to LA not sure which team but i would bet there is even more bimbettes out there he ain't poked
i SERIOUSLY doubt that he is going to braves/white sox because they don't want to deal with boras. i am POSITIVE he's not coming to houston. da Rod done already done the hick(s)town thing
You're forgetting that A-Rod's value transcends these things. Or does he only make the Mets enough money to sign Santana if he plays 3B?
I like Boros' track record as an agent better than mine as a blogger, but I get that "jump the shark" sense about this latest round. Of course, A-Rod will sign for at least 25 million, but I could see a little embarrassment and a touch of desperation with it.
BIS RZR had Wright at 24 runs above average defensively. STATS ZR had him at 1 run above average.
BIS RZR had Reyes at 12 runs above average defensively. STATS ZR had him at 13 runs above average.
BIS RZR had ARod at 9 runs below average defensively. STATS ZR had him at 2 runs above average.
You want ARod? Fine, pay him $350M to play 2b.
Phillips doesn't need A-Rod's help...
That's just wrong. Funny, but wrong...
He doesn't lose positional value moving up the defensive spectrum. And A-Rod's offense would be gargantuan for a 2Bman, enough so to offset any defensive loss. I can't see Rodriguez being any worse playing 2B than Jeter is at SS, and the MFYs seem to survive that just fine.
1) He is utterly convinced NY will make an adjusted offer before the 10 days are out
2) He has an in the hand offer from some team (likely)
If ARod signs for less or even comporable money, the NYY will go bonkers spinning this as 'ARod taking less'. After the DiceK fiasco, Scotty needs a big public win.
Besides, he can top 42 homers easy.
That's what I was thinking, but I can see the possibility of maybe either LA team giving him either what he wants, or enough to save face so to speak.
Other than that:
The Cubs' ownership situation will not be resolved in time for them to be players;
The Whitesox owner won't bid out of misguided "principle" (which word does not mean what he thinks it means...)
Other high revenue teams:????
Boras has on occasion misread the market, one can only hope that this would be one of those occasions- it'd be a far more visible blunder than any he's ever made before.
And, yes, I would prefer that A-Rod move rather than Wright or Reyes. But I can't claim to read his mind... I have no idea whether this "he's a mercenary, so he'll move wherever you ask him to as long as you sign the check" theory is true or not. I am just saying that, if the condition of his signing with the Mets is that he play 3B or SS, I would accept that.
And yes, this whole exercise is ridiculous. $250M or $300M or whatever the hell it'll be is probably too much to shell out on decline-era ARod anyway. Plus you're effectively costing yourself even more money than that if you end up using him, Wright or Reyes at a position that doesn't maximize their defensive value. Plus getting rid of Delgado will be difficult; getting rid of Alou means you're not gaining as much hitting in the transaction; and benching Milledge is not an option. Plus ARod doesn't even seem to like the city the team plays in. Plus he and/or the Mets might have grudges from the botched negotiations when he was a free agent the first time. Plus it's ridiculously easy to foresee a scenario where he becomes the whipping boy of both New York franchises, and the ?hitstorm he just went through will look like a light ?hit drizzle in comparison.
That said, ARod is one of the very greatest players in the entire history of baseball, acquiring him would improve the Mets, and I would be excited, as it ain't my money.
The fiasco where he felt he could get FA money for DiceK, or at least postured that way quite publically. That he was ready to walk away, before his player insisted he take a deal he advised against. Traditionally, when he's gone public with "offers" he's had incredible success. The only other time it failed that I can recall is when he went on record that he had a huge deal for Kevin Millwood ($100 million I think? Or do I have the player wrong?).
I think he needs a win here, and I'm betting he'll get it.
Too bad the Cardinals aren't trading him.
Does anyone outside of the midwest realize that since coming into the league, Pujols has averaged just under one and a half WARP per season over A-Rod? Nearly 3 more WARP per year over the last five years. I know of the problems with BP's defensive metrics, but the advanced metrics also indicate that Albert is a superb 1B and A-Rod is an average 3B. It isn't 2001 any longer. Drop this "best player in baseball" nonsense.
1: The problem is that BBREF's defensive numbers are driving that Warp advantage- 20+ runs better defensively than the average 1B? Is that possible?
2: But then again WinShares has Pujols ahead over the past 4 years- but by a similar margin
3: AROD plays in the tougher league :-)
Well, the advanced metrics are *&^%$ in the head.
You can go back before 2007 to make the Pujols argument, but it certainly isn't an obvious one.
I know you support batting the pitcher eighth, Sparkles- A-Rod as well?
1) A-Rod had the better 2007 season.
2) Pujols has been consistently better, overall, since he came into the league.
3) If it's close, you have to take Pujols because he earns a lot less and is thus the more valuable asset.
All that said, these two are two of the greatest players in the history of the game. If it's hyperbole by a measure of one to call A-Rod the best player in baseball, it's hardly a mortal sin.
Sheesh.
The fact that A-Rod has basically hit on a level with Scott Rolen and other mortals three of the last four years is also driving it. And I don't presume to know that I can quantify defense any better than the experts, but I can attest to him being an exceptional 1B.
Yeah, since 2005 only.
Fair enough- but as commodities, isn't it worth noting that Pujols would require trading, gosh, Wright/Reyes + for St. Louis to consider it, while A Rod costs nothing in players?
He was third in OPS among 3B in 2006, sixth in 2004.
In 2005 and 2007 he had the fourth and third best OPS+ of any third baseman, ever.
Where are you getting three of four years from?
I also disagree that anyone would look at the job that Boras did with Dice-K and conclude that they did not want that guy representing them.
(And I agree that Pujols > A-Rod.)
You are referring to the season in which he won the MVP, slugged .600 with 47 home runs while playing gold glove defense at shortstop? Just checking...
Just before this season began there were several posters whose opinion was
1: ARod is a 3B now and will never be an SS again (I tend to agree).
2: ARod is likely to be a 130 OPS+ ing 3B from here on out- and his future value should be estimated on that basis. (look at 2004 and 2006 and ignore 2005....)
If you buy 1 & 2, then AROD's current contract was nuts, the value that AROD was likely to put up from 2007 onward was likely to be very good, but hardly historic. If you buy 1 & 2- then either AROD just made a huge mistake, or some team's owner/GM is going to make an even bigger one.
Personally, even though Rolen is a better defensive 3B than Arod, given his fragility, and the fact that only once, in 2004, did he hit as well as AROD's career average, ARod is clearly more valuable than Rolen is or ever was.
That would be the one. EQA of .315 and OPS+ of 147. Nowhere near his best offensive years, and I stated pretty clearly that I was only talking about offense with that statement. Or do you really think playing a mediocre 3B while putting up .315 EQAs would make A-Rod the best player in baseball?
I think when you are a team that needs a playoff appearance desperately following the 2007 collapse and the new stadium coming in 2009, and there's a supremely talented player available for nothing but money, you would have to be crazy not to aggressively bid for him.
Certainly I'd love to see A-Rod playing 2B for the Mets, but he might be the only player in baseball that I'd move Jose Reyes over for. I think there's little question at this stage in their careers who is the better defensive SS, but the offense? I don't see how, especially with a terrible FA class, the Mets couldn't seriously consider a bid.
So the years spin by and now the boy is thirty (two)
Though his dreams have lost some grandeur coming true
There'll be new dreams, maybe better dreams and plenty
Before the last revolving year is through
And the seasons they go round and round
And the painted ponies go up and down
Were captive on the carousel of time
We cant return, we can only look behind
From where we came
And go round and round and round
In the circle game
For the Mets, Arod at second makes them a lock for the playoffs during a time that the Yankees are likley to miss the playoffs. There is no better time to steal market share. He'll be worth the huge contract. Four years in, he can move to first or to the outfield.
Reyes back (yeah, remember?) to 2B
Wright stays at third
A-Rod stays an average defender and hits 45+ bombs as a SS.
Would he go to the Mets? My assumption is no simply because the Wilpons were involved in the earlier botched "negotiations"- but then again they may offer a boatload of cash this time, and ARod could choose to decide the earlier negotiations were all Phillips fault...
So: Who plays where?
I can't see either Wright or ARod playing 2B
I'm guessing one or the other goes to RF.
naaah I don't see this happening.
Posada replacing BlowDuca is more likely.
Reyes back (yeah, remember?) to 2B
Wright stays at third
A-Rod stays an average defender and hits 45+ bombs as a SS.
b/c Reyes is easily the best defender of the 3? b/c A-Rod can probably no longer play an average short?
Either A-Rod or Wright would have to move to 2nd. I don't have a problem with a Wright to 2nd experiment. The worst part of his defensive game is his throwing arm so he might actually be pretty solid over there. The one concern (and it IS a big one) is whether playing 2nd base shortens Wright's career. How good *is* the evidence that playign 2nd shortens careers? Is it just that 2nd basemen are the poor men's SS's and have shorter careers by virtue of less athleticism? I think we know that 2nd basemen are, on average, poorer players than players at other positions so you'd have to adjust for that. If I were the Mets I'd have 3 of the smartest people I know working to try to quantify the career-shortening or offense weakening effects of playing 2nd base. If the effect is real and substantial, I don't do it. If it's a myth, let's spend some of that new ballpark money!
In this case the alleged "principle" is to not deal with Scott Boras at a personal level, and this court rules that it would certainly be fair to call that a "principle." That wouldn't necessarily preclude them from bidding, as they did so the first time he was up for grabs. And I think a lot of folks in that organization would like an excuse to be rid of Juan Uribe, for many reasons.
Of course, in this particular case, Boras could have drastically misread the market and still wind up getting a record-shattering contract for his client.
When that happens, no spin will be necessary.
I disagree, if the total offer is less than the Yankees offer was "going" to be, all the anti-Boras FOs and media will jump all over it. You have to agree, Scotty is generally disliked amongst most Front Offices. And most teams have at least one media schill. And there are lots of crotchety old men pining for the days of yore when players were indentured servants.
No, if AROD gets much less than (the remaining deal + reputed Yankee extension offer)- then Boras gets to say:
"see it wasn't the money- ARod just wanted out and was willing to take less to escape"
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