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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Gray: Dear John letters: Your 2010 Houston Astros

Or in Lisa Gray’s case, Dear Carlos…

• I’ll always remember the time I actually saw Carlos Lee hustle to catch a fly ball hit to left. I’d link to it, but when I typed “Carlos Lee” and “DID hustle” into my blog’s search function, it overloaded the pixels.

...Shape up or ship out: This offseason, I want you to continue with the rebuilding. I understand that Lee’s remaining $38 million is a millstone and that no sane organization would take him and his limp bat, even as a DH, but you HAVE to understand the concept of “sunk cost” and not waste a spot with him if you have a young player who needs to learn to adjust to major league pitchers. You know, you can use Carlos as a bench player. Sorry, but he and his 90 OPS+ have no business playing first base on a team which is trying to teach young players to come together as a team.

And by the way, I know that you have been having Lee playing first base because you are trying to promulgate the notion that Carlos is less El Perezoso (the sloth) and more El Caballo while playing first, both with bat and glove. You assume that no one is capable of calculating the numbers or can be bothered to do so.

Wrong! Carlos doesn’t hit differently no matter where he plays. Since you first played him at first base on Aug. 8, he has a .762 OPS over 16 games if playing first base and a .751 OPS over 29 games when he plays in left field. Like, you know, big deal. They are execrable numbers for either a left fielder or a first baseman. And he’s still a lousy fielder.

Repoz Posted: September 28, 2010 at 01:36 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, projections

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:16 PM (#3650337)
Lee's BABIP is really low at .238. If I had a glaring hole at DH and the Astros ate enough money, I think I'd consider him because he's been a very good hitter up until 2010.
   2. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 04:39 PM (#3650366)
If I had a glaring hole at DH and the Astros ate enough money, I think I'd consider him because he's been a very good hitter up until 2010.
Given where the market seems to be for DH-types (Matsui: $6 million, N. Johnson: $5.75 million), the Astros would have to be picking up something like $10-12 million before a team should even consider it. And with those guys, plus Damon, Berkman, and maybe Ortiz on the market, I can't see that happenening.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: September 28, 2010 at 06:10 PM (#3650465)
True, the market for Lee will be pretty bare. But there's no good reason to project a 90 OPS+ for him next year either. He's a good candidate for a Soriano-type bounceback year -- which is still league-average at best but it's not like the Astros are brimming with league-average hitters or young hitting prospects. Sure, there's no excuse for Lee blocking a promising young hitter -- but do the Astros have any promising young 1B/LF?

If you can find somebody to take him and some of his money off your hands, great. If you've got a kid who needs experience, great. Otherwise the best option is Carlos Lee starting 1B/LF.
   4. base ball chick Posted: September 28, 2010 at 10:48 PM (#3650695)
youse guys don't know how tough it is to get hits about the astros these days

i didn't get any more hits from yahoo than i do from my own site - and i even got one of the - hey why is a woman posting wimmen don't know from baseball GIT BACK IN THE KITCHEN - type comments

sigh

anyhow, clank has a very low babip because he hits a TON of easy GB to short/third and very few balls in gaps. he has NOT been "unlucky" he just ucksays

- walt

WHY is clank a good candidate for a bounceback? he's not hurt, he hasn't had balls pulled back from over the fence, he doesn't have almost hits that web gem plays get made on. he is just crappy. he's had exactly ONE month where he hit like his old self and that is IT
   5. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 10:57 PM (#3650703)
WHY is clank a good candidate for a bounceback?
Dead cat bounce, if nothing else
   6. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 28, 2010 at 11:08 PM (#3650711)
Lee's BABIP is really low at .238.


Lee's 34 and overweight. He's exactly the kind of player who falls off a cliff at this age. As dudes get older, their reflexes slow, and their BABIP sinks, often quite rapidly. It's a skill, and it deteriorates.
   7. Tricky Dick Posted: September 29, 2010 at 01:11 AM (#3650785)
I wouldn't be surprised if Lee has a rebound year next season. Of course, it's hard to know really. I have been wrong so many times, convinced that particular hitters have fallen off a cliff, only to see them with a rebound season, that I am more cautious than I used to be in reaching a conclusion that hitters' skills are gone. I think about David Ortiz and Carlos Delgado whom have similar physiques and had seasons which looked like a steep decline at a similar age, who then rebounded with a couple of good seasons after that.
   8. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 29, 2010 at 01:26 AM (#3650793)
While that's true, both Delgado and Ortiz were much better hitters than Lee to begin with.
   9. base ball chick Posted: September 29, 2010 at 03:06 AM (#3650869)
now TONIGHT he was unlucky - couldabeena Stro drew stubbs robbed him of a homer - and it woulda won the game, too

pretty silly to not count home runs as balls put into play
   10. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 29, 2010 at 04:13 AM (#3650898)
If I had a glaring hole at DH and the Astros ate enough money, I think I'd consider him because he's been a very good hitter up until 2010.


from the look of him, I think Clank already ate that money.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: September 29, 2010 at 04:30 AM (#3650907)
WHY is clank a good candidate for a bounceback?

Because even fat and old guys usually don't go splat. Now I'll grant you his 2009 (119+) wasn't as good as I was guessing it was but even so a standard Marcel projects him to about a 110 OPS+. Ding him 5 for age.

And, yeah, what that other guy said -- his offensive decline is pretty much entirely BABIP.

And, ummm, he's had two non-embarrassing months this year! Semi-seriously, since his horrendous April, he's hit 256/300/445 (with a still horrible 240 BABIP) and that's nearly a 96 OPS+!

And what that other other guy said -- while not all as good a splat candidate as Lee, I do recall Ortiz and Delgado and Soriano and Ordonez and Tim Salmon and ... guys I don't recall ... and their premature obituaries (some written by me!).

But, really, what options do the Astros have? Sure, he's sunk costs. But unless they're gonna go out and guy Adam Dunn (seems unlikely) or Carlos Pena (maybe more likely) or Russ Branyan (well, OK), is there a better plan than bring him to spring and hope he bounces back?
   12. base ball chick Posted: September 29, 2010 at 04:38 AM (#3650913)
walt

the astros aren't gonna win anything next year. let's get real here. i want to play brett wallace for at least 3 months straight against rightys AND leftys, see if he's got anything. at least he isn't a complete cement block at first like el perezoso

we're supposed to have all these young guys who are gonna be good in the OF, not just bogusevic, and i want to give it a go

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