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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Green: Mike Trout sure is a super rookie, but Miguel Cabrera is the MVP

It takes a lot to out-Madden Madden…but with dripping pantothenic acid, Jerritol Green has done it!

I read the criticisms the other day in a windy article on ESPN.com, written by a blogger named Keith Law.

ESPN claims that Trout merits the MVP award — despite Cabrera’s possible Triple Crown — on the basis of WAR. This is not the kind of war that Ted Williams fought in twice amidst his Triple Crown-style seasons. Or the war that brought Willie Mays into the Army during his career.

It is that relatively new “Moneyball” style of crackpot Sabermetrics stat described as wins above replacement. Whatever that means.

Mike Trout’s WAR numbers are juggled into a figure higher than Cabrera’s.

Oh, my goodness!

WAR — and there are versions disseminated by both websites Baseball-Reference.com and fangraphs.com — includes more skills than pure hitting and hitting for power. Stolen bases are considered, a number that actually can be counted.

Fielding likewise counts.

Just how fielding figures in … well, you look and watch. And then guess, and perhaps the guess works. Or doesn’t. And then the figure person tries to measure how an ordinary replacement player might compare to the established high-skilled player.

Once upon a time, the MVP was not decided on the basis of some imaginary numbers that are jammed into a murky, invented stat such as WAR.

Repoz Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:45 AM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, sabermetrics, tigers

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   1. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4249234)
Once upon a time, the MVP was not decided on the basis of some imaginary numbers that are jammed into a murky, invented stat such as WAR

No! It was decided over brandy stingers at Toots Shor's. Not that I would mind trying that method.
   2. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4249241)
And oops, WAR does not figure in baseball's most important statistic — finishing in first place during the regular seasons. The Tigers are aimed — likely — for a first-place finish in their division now that all the white flags in Detroit have been ripped down.

The Angels have a better record than the Tigers!!!
   3. Ned Garvin: Male Prostitute Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4249242)
Once upon a time MVP voters didn't just stick their head in a spreadsheet and vote on the basis of stats alone. They actually watched games and saw that things like baserunning and defense were important and won games. If this idiot could get out of his mother's basement and watch an actual baseball game he might know this.
   4. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4249243)
Is feeding the troll worth it? It just creates more trolls.
   5. boteman Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4249261)
Is feeding the troll worth it? It just creates more trolls.

Not if you feed it poison.
   6. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4249272)
The Angels have a better record than the Tigers!!!

But Detroit will probably win their division and LA won't. It's like my wife and her older brother: I'm three years older than her, and she's a year younger than him. But the family invariably thinks of my brother-in-law as being "older" than me, even though he's actually two years younger.

a murky, invented stat such as WAR.

Would WAR get more respect it had a different name, like "Player Wins" or something? (Naaah.)
   7. Tricky Dick Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4249276)
invented stat such as WAR.

...as opposed to triple crown stats which were handed down from God.
   8. andrewberg Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4249280)
It's more or less been said, but it's insane to me that Cabrera is becoming the old fart hill to die on. On one hand, you've got an athletic phenom who galvanized a sputtering team to contention with thrilling defensive prowess and great base running. On the other hand is a soft, borderline alcoholic who doesn't play defense and whose team has fallen short of expwhich oneectations. Which one is"old school" and which one requires a new lens to be fully appreciated? It's bizarro journalism.
   9. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4249283)
Not if you feed it poison.


Yeah, but we're feeding it spoonfuls of sugar, salted pork, and quiche, and watching it grow.
   10. silhouetted by the sea Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4249285)
The Angels have a better record than the Tigers!!!

The tigers have learned from Jack Morris. They are playing to the standings.
   11. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4249286)
The Angels have a better record than the Tigers!!!


Yes, but Miguel Cabrera has made the White Sox worse than the Rangers and A's.

I have to say that this is the trolliest article of this sort that we've seen so far, at least from the excerpt.

EDIT: Ah, it's from a Detroit source. Those people aren't expected to make sense on this topic.
   12. PreservedFish Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4249287)
ESPN claims that Trout merits the MVP award — despite Cabrera’s possible Triple Crown — on the basis of WAR.


I haven't read the article, so I don't know if Law did or did not do this. But it seems to me that if I were debating the issue, I would find it much easier to make a convincing case by not using WAR as my linchpin, or even by not referring to WAR at all.
   13. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4249295)
Would WAR get more respect it had a different name, like "Player Wins" or something? (Naaah.)

"Extreme Wins" might do the trick.
   14. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4249297)
Well, add another reason for wanting to see Josh Hamilton hit eight home runs today: it will spike the "Triple Crown" meme.
   15. Tripon Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4249315)
Keith Law actually has a scouting background. If you're playing the "Blogger" card, you would then think a scout beats the reporter then.
   16. Bug Selig Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4249330)
The ONLY case I can see making for Cabrera (and I'm a Tiger fan) is if you pursue the angle of what Cabrera did in response to (or even to "allow") the Fielder move. He was, as far as anyone knows, perfectly happy as the Tigers' first baseman and offensive centerpiece. I can't think of too many players of his stature who have moved to make room for someone else - even the Greatest Leader of All Time (TM) didn't do that. Expected by almost everyone, including me, to be an abysmal failure at the new position, he instead plays reasonable defense at the new, harder position and wins (or narrowly misses) a Triple Crown while leading his team to a division crown that seemed lost.

I'm not a fan of "Storyline" MVP's, but if you believe in them, this would be as good as any.

There are, of course, other angles jumbling up the issue. The Tigers would be better off with Miggy still at first, Prince DH-ing (he is every bit as bad at first as we feared Miggy would be at third), and Delmon Young playing for the Astros. I don't know how that changes the value of Miggy having the surprising versatility to make the move he made.

EDITED FOR GRAMMAR
   17. Bug Selig Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4249338)
And oops, WAR does not figure in baseball's most important statistic — finishing in first place during the regular seasons.


Which of the TC categories measures that again?
   18. I Am Not a Number Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4249341)
Is this the guy that voted for Ordonez over Rodriguez 5 years ago? I recall that Ordonez got two first place votes, both from Detroit writers I think.
   19. JE (Jason) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4249346)
Jerry Green is old enough to be Bill Madden's great-great-grandfather so it's probably safe to say he's not trolling for page hits.
   20. JE (Jason) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4249348)
Trout is now the youngest player in MLB history to join the 30-30 club.
   21. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4249366)
The Tigers would be better off with Miggy still at first, Prince DH-ing (he is every bit as bad at first as we feared Miggy would be at third), and Delmon Young playing for the Astros.

The sad thing is, the Astros would probably be better off this way as well.
   22. Hank G. Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4249370)
You sabermatricians get off my lawn!
   23. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4249382)
the value of Miggy having the surprising versatility

I'd say that in terms of his 2012 MVP value, treat Cabrera the same as any other third baseman; he didn't contribute actual tactical versatility this year. In terms of contract or trade value, it's a different story; the "strategic" versatility helps his teams a lot.
   24. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4249399)
I think the casual-but-not-entirely-moronic fan argument for Cabrera, the kind of argument sportswriters are likely to make, has two key components:

1) Cabrera has played 23 more games! Before I checked just now I figured it was half that.

2) Cabrera has 50 extra points of OPS; and you might be a little suspicious of park adjustments that give Trout a higher OPS+ (seriously, why doesn't the Halo House have a rep. as an extreme pitcher's park?)

If you basically look at OPS, baserunning, and fielding; ignore adjusted OPS; and give Miggy a significant bump for those 23 games--then, I think, assuming the Tigers make the playoffs AND the Angel charge falls short--then you can reasonably vote for Cabrera.
   25. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4249415)
"Extreme Wins" might do the trick.


Maybe "Epic Wins"
   26. Walt Davis Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4249451)
This is not the kind of war that Ted Williams fought in twice amidst his Triple Crown-style seasons. Or the war that brought Willie Mays into the Army during his career.

No, it's the War on Terror!
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4249455)
This is not the kind of war that Ted Williams fought in twice amidst his Triple Crown-style seasons.
In which neither year he won the MVP..... Damn those Bill James disciple stat geeks and their not watching baseball in 1942 and 1947....
   28. Walt Davis Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4249497)
By the way, lost in all the hullabaloo is that Cano (and Verlander) are also ahead of Cabrera in bWAR. bWAR has Cano at +15 in fielding which wipes out the offensive difference. fWAR has Cabrera ahead of Cano by .1.

There is one good argument against Trout -- his twitter handle is Trouty20. Trouty? Really? This is the best we can do for a guy whose last name is Trout?
   29. Chokeland Bill Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4249507)
There's a pretty reasonable chance Cabrera only ends up with one leg of the crown. Mauer has nearly caught up in AVG and Trout/Beltre are right behind.
   30. something like a train wreck Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4249512)
This must be the 6th time this season that a Jerry Green "get off my lawn article" has been posted so we can whack at the pinata. I'm a 56 year old Detroiter and i can't remember a time that he wasn't at the Detroit News. Hell, for all I know he was at the Detroit Times. it's tedious to keep on sniggering at old people who miss Angela Lansbury. (After my initial post i looked it up and he wasn't at the Detroit Times -- he was with the AP when the Times shutdown in 1960. The point stands.)
   31. Don Malcolm Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4249530)
Well, Mike Napoli is doing his utmost to stop the Angels' charge...2 HR against his old mates after the Rangers fell behind 0-4 in the top of the first. Should the Angels lose this one, they'd have no chance of catching the Yanks or the O's and would have to sweep their final series (in Seattle, with one game against King Felix...) along with the A's getting swept by the Rangers to wind up in a tie at 91-71.

If such a scenario actually came to pass, would there be a playoff game or would the A's get the nod due to their 10-9 season series advantage over the Angels?
   32. Walt Davis Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4249533)
playoff game.

There are no tiebreakers used anymore except for HFA. Of course that's all they were ever really used for -- even in the old system, two teams tied for the WC would have had a playoff game.

EDIT: to clarify. The use of a tiebreaker in the old system only came into play if two teams tied for the division lead but that record also qualified them as the wild card team. In that scenario, since both made the playoffs, MLB decided to determine who was the division winner and who was the wild card based on a tiebreaker. The only impact of that was a potential impact on HFA.

Even this use of a tiebreaker has been discontinued because there's now a huge advantage to winning the division. The only use of tiebreakers at this point is in determining HFA among teams with equal records. Every entry into the post-season is determined on the field just like it always has been.
   33. Don Malcolm Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4249537)
Thanks Walt. Would it be a coinflip for where they play it?
   34. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4249541)
I haven't read the article, so I don't know if Law did or did not do this. But it seems to me that if I were debating the issue, I would find it much easier to make a convincing case by not using WAR as my linchpin, or even by not referring to WAR at all.

Right. You just say: he's got similar TC stats, a bunch more steals at a great rate and plays a sterling CF.


Someone said above it's bizarre that Cabrera is getting all the old school support. If you dropped me in 2012 straight from 2001, I would have said it was the sabr crowd pushing Cabrera and the old farts pushing Trout. Weird all 'round.
   35. franoscar Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4249550)
Hi, My name is Fran & I'm a baseball fan. I like the statistics and the theories and all, but I love baseball. I'm willing to believe that the statistics show that Trout is the best player in the American League. But I don't see why anybody would want to trash Miguel Cabrera. He is a great hitter, an enthusiastic player, and he tries hard. I don't know what really happened when the Yankees signed ARod, but nobody who watches Cabrera play would doubt that he'll do what his manager asks him to do & try to do his best at it. Cabrera is hitting great this year; his OBP is a little down because he's not getting the walks he got the last couple of years.

PS: Napoli seemed to be getting ready for the postseason. Sigh!
   36. franoscar Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4249552)
Sorry - doublepost
   37. Don Malcolm Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4249562)
Actually, Walt, I just realized that there's one more really bizarre scenario still in play. Say that the Angels lose the nitecap (right now they trail 8-4; Napoli has 6 ribbies...) but sweep the M's and the A's get swept by the Rangers. They're tied at 91-71.

But the Rays could make that into a three-way tie by sweeping the O's.

What do you do with a three-way tie for the last wild-card slot??
   38. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4249571)

What do you do with a three-way tie for the last wild-card slot??


As a Braves fan, I'd like to see Bud decree that we just go back to last year's rules for one more year.
   39. Don Malcolm Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4249574)
I'd love to see the press conference where Bud announces that "upon further review, we're reverting to the 2011 rules."

Meanwhile, 8-7 Rangers, bottom of 7. Look out, Napoli's up again this inning...

   40. Bourbon Samurai Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4249591)
ut I don't see why anybody would want to trash Miguel Cabrera.


Cabrera is totally awesome and deserves no trashing ( well, perhaps for his various drunken driving escapades, but certainly not for his play)
   41. base ball chick Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4249670)
why would delmon young be anywheres near the astros? he's not young and he costs more than minimum wage, to put it mildly. i promise you crane ain't payin no worthless fat windmill over minimum wage to stand in the OF like a statue and suck
   42. Walt Davis Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4249671)
Oh good golly Don, there are threads all over the last 2 weeks that explain this again and again. :-) Look in the AL playoff chase threads, I'm too old to remember all this stuff.

But I think coin flips are out unless they've gotten through like 15 tie breakers without deciding who has the HFA.

In the 3-team scenario, they've come up with an interesting little twist. The basic format is that 2 teams will play a game, then the winner plays the 3rd team and the winner of that game is the true wild card. To make that kinda fair to the other two teams, one team gets to be the "top" team (best record against the other two, blah, blah) but they have a choice between hosting the first game and, if they win, hosting the second game ... or, essentially, taking a bye in the first round but having to be visitor in the 2nd round.

My understanding is Oakland is the top team in the A's, Angels, Rays scenario although there's some confusion because of how the rule is worded. Anyhoo, the A's will have to decide if they want to host the #3 team (Rays I think), win, then host the Angels; or just play the winner of that game. From an odds of advancing standpoint, you have to take the single game. From the owners' bottom line standpoint, you might want to take the home game option. I sorta wonder how many fans think it's better to have 2 home games than one road game.
   43. Don Malcolm Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4249672)
Walt, I found 'em already. Sorry about that. As I noted in another thread, it was more fun to speculate about these than to actually read them!

Naturally, I'd prefer that they create a special three-way game per something I outlined awhile back...but as everyone knows, I also like the circus.

Little did I know at that time, however, that Budzilla and his boys would come up with a much more straightforward way to usher in the possibility of total on-field confusion....
   44. Cooper Nielson Posted: October 01, 2012 at 05:10 AM (#4249689)
Cabrera is totally awesome and deserves no trashing (well, perhaps for his various drunken driving escapades,

Has there been more than one?
   45. bunyon Posted: October 01, 2012 at 06:50 AM (#4249698)
Also, even though it's obvious, I feel I should say that no one is trashing Cabrera. They're saying he isn't as good as Trout this year. Or as valuable.
   46. Bug Selig Posted: October 01, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4249868)
why would delmon young be anywheres near the astros? he's not young and he costs more than minimum wage, to put it mildly. i promise you crane ain't payin no worthless fat windmill over minimum wage to stand in the OF like a statue and suck


Astros was just shorthand for "somewhere else" because he's utterly useless. People keep wanting to project MLB-worthiness onto him, so he'd land somewhere.
   47. Bug Selig Posted: October 01, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4249872)
Has there been more than one?


Yes. He came home piss drunk the night before the 1-game with the Twins. His wife smacked him around a bit and Dombrowski had to pick him up from the police station. He subsequently got thrown out at the plate giving a solid 20% effort to lose the game.

Then, he had the fun in Florida.

   48. BDC Posted: October 01, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4249946)
People keep wanting to project MLB-worthiness onto him, so he'd land somewhere

Just for fun, here's a list of OF/1B/DH who had accumulated over 3000 PAs through age 26, since 1961, with an OPS+ under 100:

Player           Year OPS+   PA
Willie Davis     1966   99 3501
Jose Cardenal    1970   96 3429
Ed Kranepool     1971   93 3684
Bill Buckner     1976   99 3081
Rick Manning     1981   87 3631
Juan Pierre      2004   88 3037
Jeff Francoeur   2010   91 3444
Melky Cabrera    2011   93 3363
Delmon Young     2012   99 3564 


Davis ended up having a fine career, if an odd one; he seems to have been helped enormously by the lowering of the mound in 1969. Kranepool had one of the odder careers ever. Manning and Pierre were fast glove men (or at least with glove reputations) and don't compare well to Young. Frenchy and Melky we know lots about. It seems the best chance for a decent career for Young, if he ever lives up to his potential, is to emulate Cardenal and Buckner. Both were erratic in their youth and both started to hit not just superficially better but truly better when they reached the Cubs. Hmmmn.
   49. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4250000)
Great post in 48. I'm not sure if Theo signs Delmon Young but the previous administration would have grabbed him in a second.
   50. bunyon Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4250008)
Maybe a team should sign Frenchy and convince him to go on the juice. Get a good 3/4 year out of him and maybe set yourself into contention.
   51. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4250017)
This must be the 6th time this season that a Jerry Green "get off my lawn article" has been posted so we can whack at the pinata. I'm a 56 year old Detroiter and i can't remember a time that he wasn't at the Detroit News. Hell, for all I know he was at the Detroit Times. it's tedious to keep on sniggering at old people who miss Angela Lansbury. (After my initial post i looked it up and he wasn't at the Detroit Times -- he was with the AP when the Times shutdown in 1960. The point stands


Well, his name is "Jerritol".
   52. BDC Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4250047)
Heck, Angela Lansbury is in Wes Anderson's newest movie. I wouldn't be surprised to see her open on Broadway this winter with Betty White in Waiting for Godot.
   53. Steve Treder Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4250056)
Davis ended up having a fine career, if an odd one; he seems to have been helped enormously by the lowering of the mound in 1969.

He was, but he also made a change in his approach in 1969: shortening his stroke and going up the middle and gap-to-gap instead of pulling everything and delivering a whole lot of warning track fly balls.
   54. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 01, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4250384)
Heck, Angela Lansbury is in Wes Anderson's newest movie. I wouldn't be surprised to see her open on Broadway this winter with Betty White in Waiting for Godot.

She was in Moonrise Kingdom? I totally missed that.
   55. Cooper Nielson Posted: October 01, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4250482)
Yes. He came home piss drunk the night before the 1-game with the Twins. His wife smacked him around a bit and Dombrowski had to pick him up from the police station. He subsequently got thrown out at the plate giving a solid 20% effort to lose the game.

I know about that, but I don't see how that qualifies as "drunken driving." A crucial element is missing. I mean, I don't know how he got home from the bar, but he was arrested at his home (and eventually wasn't charged with anything).

When someone mentions "his various drunken driving escapades" you would expect to find more than one.
   56. Bug Selig Posted: October 02, 2012 at 07:01 AM (#4250706)
I know about that, but I don't see how that qualifies as "drunken driving."


Fair enough. I only registered the "drunken escapades" part of it.

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