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Monday, August 19, 2019

Greinke gets 200th win, pitches Astros past A’s 4-1

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — After earning his 200th win, Zack Greinke hopes he’s on his way to even bigger achievements with the Houston Astros this season.

Greinke reached the milestone with seven smooth innings Sunday, pitching the first-place Astros past the Oakland Athletics 4-1 to avoid a four-game sweep.

Alex Bregman had a three-run homer among his four hits to back Greinke, who won his third straight start since joining Houston from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the July 31 trade deadline to make the Astros a World Series favorite.

“Wins are good. You look back at the end of the year and the team wins a lot and you win a lot, you can’t ask for much more than that,” Greinke said. “I wouldn’t say there’s many pitchers that would say that that’s the No. 1 most important stat for them, but if you and the team are winning, it’s the most important. It doesn’t necessarily say you’re pitching the best, but it’s the most important.”

A milestone that seems to be of increasing importance- only two active players have more (and one is about to retire), and it could be some years before we see more.

QLE Posted: August 19, 2019 at 09:56 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: milestones, wins, zack greinke

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: August 19, 2019 at 10:07 PM (#5872757)
Greinke has never had a 20 win season, yet he's still only 35 years old and has an outside chance at 300 wins for his career... people like to argue that it's not going to happen again, and I'm seeing zero evidence to belief that is the case... outside of the 70's stars, the pace of 300 win pitchers isn't really changing(and to a lesser extent the 90's stars) but the argument is that pitchers might not be getting 20 wins a season, but they are 1. lasting longer 2. the good pitchers are getting 15 or so wins a season still.
   2. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: August 19, 2019 at 10:18 PM (#5872761)
Sabathia is not getting there, but I would think that the group of Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, and Kershaw will produce one 300-game winner. All it takes is for one of those guys to defy the aging curve until 42 or so. Any one of them individually seems like a bad bet, but I would think the odds are respectable that one of them gets there. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Walt will come in here and destroy my gut feeling with real math.
   3. GregD Posted: August 19, 2019 at 11:30 PM (#5872771)
Was at game and he looked great. Not overpowering just crazy efficient. Like an old timer.

My daughter looked up in the sixth and was like how he has only thrown 52 pitches?
   4. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: August 20, 2019 at 12:04 AM (#5872775)
but I would think that the group of Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, and Kershaw will produce one 300-game winner.

Scherzer is fairly far behind the pace compared to the rest of the group - he just turned 35 and has only 3 more wins than 31.5-year-old Kershaw. But that's still probably an accurate list of the four pitchers with the best chance, unless you're really optimistic about Jon Lester or Rick Porcello.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:03 AM (#5872778)
Rick Porcello


That would be former Red Sock Rick Porcello. The Sox will NOT be offering this guy anything over 1/5 next year.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:39 AM (#5872780)
Sure, the "field" has a decent chance.

Greinke will likely get a few more wins this year but he'll be 36 next year. Twelve pitchers in the expansion era have had 95+ wins from age 36 on and that includes non-luminaries like Wells, Wakefield, Colon. Of course that 3 of the 12 were knucklers doesn't necessarily bode well for Greinke -- although I'd bet he could master one. There's another batch of not overly impressive pitchers who came close too -- Sutton, Rogers, D Martinez. Even Reuschel and Hershiser managed 75 and 70 wins respectively and it's clearly well within possibility that Greinke will age as well as they did.

That said, the lowest number of innings by one of those 90+-win pitchers was Colon at 1447. That's a bit more than half of Greinke's career total ... and he needs about half of his career wins ... so that's a big ask. And of course this is an era of declining innings by starters, including top starters -- 1400+ innings might require 8 full seasons now. For 2009-18, 292 starters have made it to 200 innings ... which seems more than enough except ...

2009 36
2010 45
2011 39
2012 31
2013 36
2014 34
2015 28
2016 15
2017 15
2018 13

Obviously deadening the ball would help but it's not promising. It is promising that Greinke did it 7 times in those 10 years and is a decent bet for this year. Verlander is first with 9 times -- guess who's second with 8?

Bumgarner is probably the best dark horse candidate (if we consider him a dark horse). Obviously he needs to get and stay healthy (and get on some good teams) but 118 wins before age 30 gives him a small cushion. Next on the active and under 30 list is Gerritt Cole at 88 (and still one season under 30 to go). Nola has 52 wins and is just 26 so has a shot at 100 before age 30. Eduardo Rodriguez has 46 at 26.

16+ wins by a pitcher 29 or younger

2009 10
2010 11
2011 11
2012 16
2013 6
2014 9
2015 9
2016 8
2017 6
2018 7

Reasonably stable but not looking good. This is what has folks concerned. Greinke is gonna have to get to about 4200-4300 innings to get to 300 wins at his current pace. Nothing outlandish about that but, at 180 innings a year, that's over 23 full seasons. Leading to ... # 30+ start seasons by a pitcher under 25:

2009 14
2010 12
2011 9
2012 9
2013 9
2014 11
2015 6
2016 5
2017 3
2018 5

So somebody is gonna have to pitch to Moyer age to have much of a chance at 300. And of those last 13:

Aaron Sanchez -- missed about a full season 2017-18, has a 78 ERA+ this year
Robbie Ray -- pretty health but reached 15 wins only once so far in his career
Brandon Finnegan -- career appears over
Carlos Martinez -- a reliever these days
Noah -- missed most of 2017, hasn't won 15 in a season, hasn't made it to 30 starts in a season since 2016 (good chance this year)
Severino -- missing all of this year, probably still the best shot as he'll be just 26, has 41 wins under his belt and pitches for the Yanks
Zach Davies -- 10 years from now we might be saying "I had no idea Zach Davies was this good and how did he get to be 36?"
Chad Kuhl -- TJS after just a half-2018, average so far anyway
Giolito -- probably the 2nd best bet as he's healthy again this year and performing excellently
Berrios -- better than Davies, still doesn't have a 15-win season
Reynaldo Lopez -- not delivering on the promise but healthy
German Marquez -- So far in the Severino/Giolito class, might get to 15 wins this year
(the 13th pitcher is Severino again)

Young pitchers always have high attrition rates of course so the damage isn't surprising but the key in the past was, say, having 25-30 guys over three seasons who start out young then, say, 7-10 survive to keep racking up innings and maybe 1-2 of those guys are really good and really durable. If we're now getting only 13 over three seasons ...

Pitching usage could swing back towards SPs of course ... or maybe the idea of a 4-man rotation of 5-inning starters will lead to guys getting 35-40 starts a year again ... or maybe all these changes will lead to a new definition of a win. Wins through age 24, basically players who debuted 1996 or later:

Felix 71
CC 69
Bumgarner 67
Kershaw 61
Porcello 61
... a bunch of inactive guys ...
Severino 41
Cole 40
Teheran 40
...
Hamels 38
Verlander 38
Greinke 34 (the Royals were not very good)

So the Severino/Cole win totals aren't disqualifying from getting themselves into the conversation but it already looks like they would barely squeak over at best.

   7. caspian88 Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:50 AM (#5872781)
Some eerie similarities between Kershaw and Koufax, some of which won't be relevant at the end of the year:

Both are left-handed starting pitchers.
Both have played twelve seasons for the Dodgers exclusively.
Both have 165 career wins.
Both have led their league in wins three times.
Both have led/are leading their league in winning percentage twice.
Both have led their league in ERA five times.
Both have had full-season ERAs under 2.00 three times, with one of those seasons seeing them miss about a third of their possible starts.
Both have led their league in complete games twice.
Both have led their league in shutouts three times.
Both led their league in WHIP four seasons in a row.
Both have won three Cy Young awards and an MVP.
   8. Bote Man Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:54 AM (#5872783)
So... we're getting excited about pitcher wins again??
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2019 at 02:16 AM (#5872785)
Koufax peaked at the very end of his career that was not so evident, and in a monster way.

Picture Trout if he retired in November due to a bum elbow.

Kershaw, we keep seeing the leaks.

but his career has been great, and he soldiers on

Koufax finished 165-87 with a 131 ERA+
Kershaw so far 165-71 with a 159 ERA+
Scherzer so far 168-87 with a 134 ERA+
   10. bunyon Posted: August 20, 2019 at 05:50 AM (#5872790)
@8: I’ve always been excited about pitcher wins. It isn’t a great way to evaluate ability our predict future efficacy but they’re cool. I still like 3,000 hits, too. Perfect analysis is not the end all, be all of sport. I’d be sad if we never saw another 300th win.

Also, Maddux won 20 only once and cleared 350. A high average and long career is more important than a high peak. (Not that Maddux’s Peak was shabby).
   11. Lest we forget Posted: August 20, 2019 at 07:17 AM (#5872792)
"My daughter looked up in the sixth and was like how he has only thrown 52 pitches?"

Parenting at its best.
   12. Lest we forget Posted: August 20, 2019 at 07:23 AM (#5872793)
Maddux won 20 twice, but he had 'bad 20 luck', as he finished with 19 wins in 5 seasons.

That's a lot of close calls.
   13. Rally Posted: August 20, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5872797)
Felix Hernandez looked like a good chance a few years back, with 143 before he turned 30. Now 33 he's at 169, and doesn't look likely to make it to 200.
   14. Blastin Posted: August 20, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5872813)
Felix just said he's done after this year, in fact.
   15. bunyon Posted: August 20, 2019 at 09:31 AM (#5872816)
@12: Sure, but that's the trouble with setting sharp cutoffs. Winning 20 has little to do with winning 300. Pitching past 40 is a much better predictor.


Okay, interested and needing to prepare for a meeting, I looked it up. Of the 300 game winners who started their career after 1920, only Maddux and Carlton won their 300th game before their 40th birthday. Spahn, who won it just a few months after he turned 40, also missed 3 seasons to the war. He has an interesting response about people saying he might have won 400 games if not for the war. He says he grew up a lot in those three years and that he probably wouldn't have pitched until he was 44 if he'd pitched those 3 years. Still, I'd give it to him that he probably wins 300 before 40 if he doesn't miss for the war.

So, you have to win at a reasonable rate and pitch until, or after, 40. (I know you all know this, sorry).

I'd say Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, and Kershaw have, combined, less than a 1 in 4 chance of winning 300. Scherzer and Greinke are too old. Give Scherzer 9 more seasons (pitching to 43) and he needs to average over 14 wins per year.

Greinke, 8 more years, 43, needs to average over 12. If he really can go 8 more years, he could do it but he has to stay with good teams.

Verlander is the best bet, I think. Let him go until 43 - seven more seasons - and he only needs to average a little over 11 wins per season.

Kershaw, 12 seasons, age 43, needs to average about the same as Verlander would if he pitched to 43. A bit more than 11 wins per season.

Kershaw is the only one of them that has any hope of getting to 300 before 40, which is probably important for him. If I had to bet on which one of these four wins their last game first, it would probably be Kershaw.

If Kershaw only has seven more seasons - entirely plausible - he needs to average over 19 wins per year.

And, of course, as alluded to above, wins are very team dependent. All of them not only have to stay healthy well into their 40s, they have to be on teams that score runs and win games.

Now I'm late.

   16. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: August 20, 2019 at 09:58 AM (#5872825)
Maddux won 20 twice, but he had 'bad 20 luck', as he finished with 19 wins in 5 seasons.
He had the misfortune of having his super-insane peak in 1994/1995. Minus the strike he definitely wins 20 (instead of 19) in '95, and probably wins 20 (instead of 16) in '94.

I just noticed Domingo German's totals for this year -- 16 wins in 20 starts (and 1 relief appearance), over 116 IP. IOW, he's got a really solid shot at breaking Blake Snell's hallowed 2018 record for fewest IP by a 20 game winner. All he needs is 4 wins in fewer than 64 IP. He's starting tonight and then has 6 or maybe 7 starts after that. No way in hell he gets the 64 IP, and 4 wins in 7 games in entirely possible. (Resting him before the playoffs may change this significantly, of course.) We might be watching history as it happens.
   17. pikepredator Posted: August 20, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5872839)
@8: I’ve always been excited about pitcher wins. It isn’t a great way to evaluate ability our predict future efficacy but they’re cool. I still like 3,000 hits, too. Perfect analysis is not the end all, be all of sport. I’d be sad if we never saw another 300th win.


agreed. There's a big difference between getting excited about win to totals - especially career win totals - and basing judgments of pitcher quality on single-season totals. I was 12 when Nolan Ryan went 8-16 with a 2.76 ERA and a boatload of K's. I think that was the same year I was given The Hidden Game of Baseball.

I still want to see 20-game winners, 300-game winners, and people throw no-hitters.
   18. Booey Posted: August 20, 2019 at 11:39 AM (#5872867)
@8: I’ve always been excited about pitcher wins. It isn’t a great way to evaluate ability our predict future efficacy but they’re cool. I still like 3,000 hits, too. Perfect analysis is not the end all, be all of sport. I’d be sad if we never saw another 300th win.


agreed. There's a big difference between getting excited about win to totals - especially career win totals - and basing judgments of pitcher quality on single-season totals. I was 12 when Nolan Ryan went 8-16 with a 2.76 ERA and a boatload of K's. I think that was the same year I was given The Hidden Game of Baseball.

I still want to see 20-game winners, 300-game winners, and people throw no-hitters.


Thirded, to all of this. I'm glad that many voters (and an increasing number of fans) have figured out the difference between "fun" stats and value evaluating stats, so we're able to see Jacob deGrom deservedly win a CYA in a 10-9 season and Roy Halladay sail into the HOF on the first ballot with just over 200 career victories...but that doesn't mean there's something wrong with fans still finding joy in the "fun" stats. Wins, batting average, RBI. Entertainment is still the main purpose of sports in the first place.

I still love batting average, despite knowing full well that OBP is a much better measuring stick for offensive performance. I found Tony Gwynn collecting batting titles like they were Pokemon cards much more exciting than Joey Votto doing the same with OBP crowns (no dis to Votto; I've enjoyed his career, too), and it bums me out a bit that we haven't had a .350 season in a decade. Gwynn being just a "regular" middle tier HOF caliber player doesn't change the fact that his .338 lifetime BA - a full 10 pts higher than anyone else who debuted post WW2 - is one of the most impressive things I've seen in my 30+ years of fandom and something I'm very confident will never be approached again. I think Miggy's Triple Crown in 2012 was one of the most FUN accomplishments of the decade, while still having no problem admitting he didn't deserve to win MVP.

There's enough room in my fandom for both accurate statistical evaluation and fun milestone watching. It's not a contradiction.

   19. bobm Posted: August 20, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5872868)
Pitching past 40 is a much better predictor.

From 1901 to 2019, eventual 300 game winners, sorted by wins through age 39

                                                                    
Rk              Player   W From   To   Age   G  GS  CG  GF SV     IP
1       Walter Johnson 417 1907 1927 19-39 802 666 531 127 34 5914.1
2    Christy Mathewson 373 1901 1916 20-35 630 551 434  69 30 4755.0
3       Pete Alexander 327 1911 1926 24-39 594 517 388  69 27 4524.2
4          Greg Maddux 318 1986 2005 20-39 643 639 108   3  0 4406.1
5        Steve Carlton 313 1965 1984 20-39 657 639 251   7  1 4787.2
6          Eddie Plank 305 1901 1915 25-39 566 489 385  64 19 4129.0
7        Roger Clemens 293 1984 2002 21-39 574 573 116   0  0 4067.0
8           Tom Seaver 288 1967 1984 22-39 593 586 223   6  1 4368.0
9         Warren Spahn 288 1942 1960 21-39 571 509 305  50 24 4080.2
10         Lefty Grove 286 1925 1939 25-39 573 415 279 122 54 3653.1
11          Don Sutton 280 1966 1984 21-39 655 638 173  12  5 4570.1
12         Tom Glavine 275 1987 2005 21-39 603 603  55   0  0 3951.2
13          Early Wynn 271 1939 1959 19-39 591 530 260  56 14 3993.1
14       Gaylord Perry 267 1962 1978 23-39 626 541 275  31 10 4358.0
15          Nolan Ryan 253 1966 1986 19-39 611 577 203  13  3 4114.1
16       Randy Johnson 230 1988 2003 24-39 454 444  88   5  2 3122.1
17         Phil Niekro 197 1964 1978 25-39 564 422 183  79 28 3427.0


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/20/2019.
   20. bobm Posted: August 20, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5872875)
From 1901 to 2019, eventual sub-300 game winners, sorted by wins through age 39

                                                                  
Rk                Player   W From   To   Age   G  GS  GF SV     IP
1          Robin Roberts 286 1948 1966 21-39 676 609  49 25 4688.2
2          Bert Blyleven 279 1970 1990 19-39 667 661   3  0 4837.0
3         Fergie Jenkins 278 1965 1982 22-39 631 565  36  7 4333.1
4           Mike Mussina 270 1991 2008 22-39 537 536   0  0 3562.2
5             Jim Palmer 268 1965 1984 19-38 558 521  15  4 3948.0
6             Bob Feller 266 1936 1956 17-37 570 484  52 22 3827.0
7        Burleigh Grimes 266 1916 1933 22-39 594 493  81 17 4127.0
8               Jim Kaat 261 1959 1978 20-39 675 606  25  5 4166.1
9            Red Ruffing 258 1924 1942 19-37 596 510  69 18 4142.2
10           Jack Morris 254 1977 1994 22-39 549 527  10  0 3824.0
11           CC Sabathia 251 2001 2019 20-38 556 556   0  0 3563.1
12            Bob Gibson 251 1959 1975 23-39 528 482  21  6 3884.1
13            Eppa Rixey 251 1912 1930 21-39 629 514  84 14 4162.0
14          Carl Hubbell 249 1928 1942 25-39 523 422  82 33 3524.1
15         Juan Marichal 243 1960 1975 22-37 471 457  11  2 3507.0
16         Andy Pettitte 240 1995 2010 23-38 489 479   3  0 3055.1
17          Frank Tanana 240 1973 1993 19-39 638 616  10  1 4188.1
18          Herb Pennock 239 1912 1933 18-39 587 417 115 35 3509.2
19        Mordecai Brown 239 1903 1916 26-39 481 332 138 49 3172.1
20            Tommy John 237 1963 1982 20-39 580 535  15  3 3709.2
21            Waite Hoyt 237 1918 1938 18-38 674 425 172 53 3762.1
22           Whitey Ford 236 1950 1967 21-38 498 438  35 11 3170.1
23             Ted Lyons 233 1923 1940 22-39 547 437  91 25 3750.2

[Below are non-300-game winners who tied or outpaced only 300-game winner Phil Niekro in wins through age 39:]


24         George Mullin 228 1902 1915 21-34 487 428  51  8 3686.2
25            Luis Tiant 225 1964 1980 23-39 558 470  51 15 3399.1
26        Catfish Hunter 224 1965 1979 19-33 500 476   6  1 3449.1
27           Jim Bunning 224 1955 1971 23-39 591 519  39 16 3760.1
28            Mel Harder 223 1928 1947 18-37 582 433  94 24 3426.1
29        Paul Derringer 223 1931 1945 24-38 579 445  98 29 3645.0
30           Hooks Dauss 223 1912 1926 22-36 538 388 120 41 3390.2
31            Tim Hudson 222 1999 2015 23-39 482 479   0  0 3126.2
32      Justin Verlander 219 2005 2019 22-36 445 445   0  0 2928.2
33        Pedro Martinez 219 1992 2009 20-37 476 409  23  3 2827.1
34             Red Faber 218 1914 1928 25-39 487 400  66 15 3307.1
35         Mickey Lolich 217 1963 1979 22-38 586 496  40 10 3638.1
36         Wilbur Cooper 216 1912 1926 20-34 517 406  83 14 3480.0
37             Jim Perry 215 1959 1975 23-39 630 447  64 10 3285.2
38        Stan Coveleski 215 1912 1928 22-38 450 385  52 21 3082.0
39          Mark Buehrle 214 2000 2015 21-36 518 493   6  0 3283.1
40   Freddie Fitzsimmons 214 1925 1941 23-39 503 416  63 13 3176.0
41        Earl Whitehill 214 1923 1938 24-39 517 462  41 10 3475.1
42          Chief Bender 212 1903 1917 19-33 458 334 111 34 3016.0
43             Bob Welch 211 1978 1994 21-37 506 462  20  8 3092.0
44           Jerry Reuss 211 1969 1988 20-39 594 520  41 11 3521.2
45          Billy Pierce 211 1945 1964 18-37 585 433  85 33 3306.2
46             Vida Blue 209 1969 1986 19-36 502 473  11  2 3343.1
47           Milt Pappas 209 1957 1973 18-34 520 465  33  4 3186.0
48          Don Drysdale 209 1956 1969 19-32 518 465  34  6 3432.0
49         Eddie Cicotte 209 1905 1920 21-36 502 361 107 24 3226.0
50       Dennis Martinez 208 1976 1993 22-39 558 476  40  6 3384.0
51        Curt Schilling 207 1988 2006 21-39 545 412  81 22 3110.0
52           Kevin Brown 207 1986 2004 21-39 473 463   1  0 3183.0
53             Bob Lemon 207 1946 1958 25-37 460 350  73 22 2850.0
54         Hal Newhouser 207 1939 1955 18-34 488 374  79 26 2993.0
55             Carl Mays 207 1915 1929 23-37 490 325 124 31 3021.1
56           Bobo Newsom 205 1929 1947 21-39 548 472  50 18 3634.2
57          Roy Halladay 203 1998 2013 21-36 416 390   6  1 2749.1
58         Sad Sam Jones 203 1914 1932 21-39 572 417 112 31 3383.0
59          Lew Burdette 202 1950 1966 23-39 607 373 120 31 3049.0
60         Rube Marquard 201 1908 1925 21-38 536 408  82 20 3306.2
61          Zack Greinke 200 2004 2019 20-35 481 440   8  1 2828.1
62          Chuck Finley 200 1986 2002 23-39 524 467  24  0 3197.1
63           George Uhle 200 1919 1936 20-37 513 368 115 27 3119.2
64         Bucky Walters 198 1934 1948 25-39 427 398  18  4 3100.2
65            Bob Friend 197 1951 1966 20-35 602 497  56 10 3611.0
66          Larry French 197 1929 1942 21-34 570 383 108 17 3152.0


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/20/2019.
   21. Rally Posted: August 20, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5872881)
I'll take Bob's table and look at percentages, based on wins through age 39:

Excluding active pitchers:

less than 180: zero
180-220 1% (1/73)
221-250 5% (1/19)
251-270 18% (2/11)
271-285 60% (3/5) Blyleven and Jenkins didn't make it
286-299 80% (4/5) Roberts didn't make it
300+ 100% (Duh)
   22. Ithaca2323 Posted: August 20, 2019 at 12:04 PM (#5872882)
There's enough room in my fandom for both accurate statistical evaluation and fun milestone watching. It's not a contradiction.


This, x1000.

300 wins, a .400 average, however many RBI Albert Pujols ends up with (I remain convinced someone might let him do the Ichiro thing after this contract runs out and he's still capable of moving)
   23. Booey Posted: August 20, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5872896)
300 wins, a .400 average, however many RBI Albert Pujols ends up with


This is my hope for how Shohei Ohtani's career plays out...
   24. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5872903)
I just noticed Domingo German's totals for this year -- 16 wins in 20 starts (and 1 relief appearance), over 116 IP. IOW, he's got a really solid shot at breaking Blake Snell's hallowed 2018 record for fewest IP by a 20 game winner. All he needs is 4 wins in fewer than 64 IP. He's starting tonight and then has 6 or maybe 7 starts after that. No way in hell he gets the 64 IP, and 4 wins in 7 games in entirely possible. (Resting him before the playoffs may change this significantly, of course.) We might be watching history as it happens.

this is a guy who has never thrown more than 125 IP at any pro level, he's at 116 IP right now, and he's 27 years old.

We might be watching a SP on a division winner sit in the bullpen or the dugout.
   25. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5872915)
I can’t believe Greinke has 200 wins. I’d have been at least 50 light if asked to guess.
   26. pikepredator Posted: August 20, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5872919)
I think Miggy's Triple Crown in 2012 was one of the most FUN accomplishments of the decade, while still having no problem admitting he didn't deserve to win MVP.


I'd been waiting my entire life for another Triple Crown winner after seeing Yaz's splattered all over the baseball cards I collected when I was younger. Manny definitely had a shot. Miggy was a worthy hitter who deserved to be the one to break that drought.
   27. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: August 20, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5872929)
We might be watching a SP on a division winner sit in the bullpen or the dugout.


The Yankees have already said German will not have an innings limit in October. Though I could see them limiting him to 3-4 inning outings in mid-late September.
   28. Rally Posted: August 20, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5872932)
Manny definitely had a shot. Miggy was a worthy hitter who deserved to be the one to break that drought.


Pujols could have done it with better timing. He has led the league in BA, HR, and RBI, just not all at the same time. He had about 8 years where his totals were very close to Miggy's .330-44-139 line. And Miggy was even better in 2013.
   29. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 20, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5872933)
Another vote for the fun of wins, batting average, and other stats. Just because they were overrated in the past doesn't mean we have to purge them in the present.
   30. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5872936)
re 27: I was referring to 16, which had nothing to do with the postseason.

German will not sit out the postseason, obviously.
   31. Booey Posted: August 20, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5872957)
Pujols could have done it with better timing. He has led the league in BA, HR, and RBI, just not all at the same time.


In addition to Pujols and the aforementioned Manny, Bonds, A-Rod, and Galarraga also led the league in all 3 categories at least once. Plus Eddie Murray, if you count 1990 when he led the entire majors in batting average but didn't technically win the batting title because of Willie McGee's league change. Cabrera also had already led the league in all 3 categories before doing them all again at the same time in 2012, and if it weren't for Chris Davis' career year, he'd have back-to-back Triple Crowns.

Other players off the top of my head to lead the league in all 3 categories at some point in the lively ball era but never win a TC - Ruth, Aaron, DiMaggio, Mize. Anyone else?

Last year Yelich missed the Triple Crown by 2 HR and 1 RBI.
   32. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: August 20, 2019 at 07:53 PM (#5873008)
Other players off the top of my head to lead the league in all 3 categories at some point in the lively ball era but never win a TC - Ruth, Aaron, DiMaggio, Mize. Anyone else?
Bonds.
   33. Booey Posted: August 20, 2019 at 09:19 PM (#5873046)
#32 - I mentioned Bonds in my first paragraph.
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2019 at 09:33 PM (#5873057)

In addition to Pujols and the aforementioned Manny, Bonds, A-Rod, and Galarraga also led the league in all 3 categories at least once. Plus Eddie Murray, if you count 1990 when he led the entire majors in batting average but didn't technically win the batting title because of Willie McGee's league change. Cabrera also had already led the league in all 3 categories before doing them all again at the same time in 2012, and if it weren't for Chris Davis' career year, he'd have back-to-back Triple Crowns.


Pujols also had the distinction of leading the NL in avg, rbi, hr for a decade.... that is actually a bit more impressive in my mind.
   35. Sweatpants Posted: August 20, 2019 at 09:45 PM (#5873062)
Maddux won 20 twice, but he had 'bad 20 luck', as he finished with 19 wins in 5 seasons.

That's a lot of close calls.
In 1989 and 1995, he won his last start of the season to get to #19. 1995 was, as mentioned, a short season (144 games), and with 3-4 more starts you think he'd have made it to 20, but they'd also be treating their ace carefully in preparation for the playoffs.

In 1997, he won his 19th with one start to go. He gave a up a game-tying two-run homer to Brad Fullmer in his next start, and although he didn't let the Expos score again the Braves didn't get him any additional runs, either. He also lost a win a couple of starts prior when Wohlers blew a save against the Rockies.

He again picked up his 19th win in his second-to-last start in 1999. His opponent, New York, was in a freefall and had lost seven straight, so it seemed like a good shot. Instead he never made it out of a disastrous fourth inning (eight batters faced, eight hits allowed).

Maddux entered September 2000 with only 14 wins, but he went on a roll and won five straight (the last four of which were all scoreless starts) heading into his final start. Again it was against the Mets, and again they got to him and gave him a loss.

He didn't win 19 in 2001, but he got his 17th with seven stars to go, putting him in pretty good position to get to 20. He didn't win a game for the rest of the year, though.
   36. DanG Posted: August 20, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5873074)
Most wins, debut 1992 or later:

Player             W   L ERA+  WAR WAA/     IP   To   Age
Andy Pettitte    256 153  117 60.6 29.8 3316.0 2013 23
-41
CC Sabathia      251 160  116 62.4 29.0 3563.1 2019 20
-38
Bartolo Colon    247 188  106 48.0 16.2 3461.2 2018 24
-45
Tim Hudson       222 133  120 56.8 30.0 3126.2 2015 23
-39
Justin Verlander 219 127  128 69.0 41.8 2928.2 2019 22
-36
Pedro Martinez   219 100  154 86.1 61.4 2827.1 2009 20
-37
Mark Buehrle     214 160  117 60.1 29.4 3283.1 2015 21
-36
Roy Halladay     203 105  131 65.4 40.4 2749.1 2013 21
-36
Zack Greinke     200 122  125 65.8 41.1 2828.1 2019 20
-35
Tim Wakefield    200 180  105 34.6  3.9 3226.1 2011 25
-44
John Lackey      188 147  110 38.4 12.3 2840.1 2017 23
-38
Jon Lester       187 106  121 45.7 23.3 2500.0 2019 22
-35
Livan Hernandez  178 177   95 24.8 
-0.6 3189.0 2012 21-37
Derek Lowe       176 157  109 33.1  8.9 2671.1 2013 24
-40
Felix Hernandez  169 132  118 50.6 25.4 2696.2 2019 19
-33
Kevin Millwood   169 152  106 30.7  7.0 2720.1 2012 22
-37
Max Scherzer     168  87  133 58.2 38.9 2252.0 2019 23
-34
Clayton Kershaw  165  71  159 65.0 47.3 2233.1 2019 20
-31
Barry Zito       165 143  105 33.0 10.1 2576.2 2015 22
-37
Javier Vazquez   165 160  105 43.4 19.3 2840.0 2011 21
-34 
   37. Booey Posted: August 21, 2019 at 12:56 AM (#5873100)
#36 - Wow, I didn't realize that Greinke has already had a career equal to Halladay's (and that list just shows pitching numbers. Zack pulls ahead when you factor in hitting). If it weren't for Arrieta's fluke 2015 season, Greinke would even match Doc with a CYA in each league (joining an elite group that also includes Perry, Clemens, Pedro, Unit, and Scherzer).
   38. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 21, 2019 at 08:16 AM (#5873115)
There's enough room in my fandom for both accurate statistical evaluation and fun milestone watching.


Can there be a heart so shriveled and black that it does not want Khris Davis to bat .247?
   39. ajnrules Posted: August 21, 2019 at 11:36 AM (#5873173)
Count me in as somebody that absolutely relish career win totals and am constantly counting down towards the next 300-game winner. Back in June I took a very rudimentary look at some of the factors that would predict they'd win 300-games. I ultimately concluded that it is the wins after the age of 30 that is most closely correlated with final win totals, and that pitching beyond 40 is frequently necessary. This becomes an issue because except for the 1980s and 2000s, it is very rare for starters to pitch beyond 40. Further analysis shows that it is really innings pitched that is correlated with win totals, and pitching after 40 can give pitchers the chance to put up the innings totals to get impressive win totals. Or something like that.

I also spent way too long researching the milestone wins of each of the 24 members of the 300-win club.
   40. DanG Posted: August 21, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5873266)
it is really innings pitched that is correlated with win totals, and pitching after 40 can give pitchers the chance to put up the innings totals to get impressive win totals
This is exactly right. Historically, to win 300 you need to get up to ~4000 IP. You might get there with a bit less, but practically speaking a guy is still going to need at least 3600-3700 IP. Among pitchers who debuted from 1989-2003, nobody reached that level of IP (Sabathia had the most in that cohort). Among pitchers debuting since then, there are a couple candidates who might get near 4000 IP.

At the same time, the pitchers who win the most games in their 20's rarely get to 300, they tend to burn out too early.
   41. Moeball Posted: August 21, 2019 at 07:57 PM (#5873295)
Still think the Mussina situation was unusual and interesting. For a guy to get his first 20 win season, putting his career total at 270, and then to just walk away is simply astounding to me. I couldn't believe it when he announced his retirement. Yes, he was 39, but he clearly could still pitch effectively. His ERA was under 3.4 that season so he still could get hitters out, even if his FIP components were slipping a bit. Still believe he could have reached 300 wins if he pitched 3 more seasons, but I guess he didn't want to put his body through 3 more years of the grind.
   42. baxter Posted: August 21, 2019 at 10:16 PM (#5873315)
Kershaw is still pitching really well (though a notch below his elite level); problem is the last 4 years he has missed significant time due to injury; last 4 seasons (this one incomplete) averaging around 160 i/p.

Unless he becomes more durable, he is not going to get there.

He can be a very valuable pitcher, going 15-5 w/excellent era for another 5-7 years; he'll fall well short of 300.

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