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Sunday, December 29, 2013

Griffin: Blue Jays’ Alex Anthopoulos on thin ice

“Why do we forget what’s been said
Ai-ai-ai-ai-ai-ai-ai-ai…”

The honeymoon could be over for Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos.

No longer is he viewed as baseball’s Boy Wonder, as he was after taking over from J.P. Ricciardi on Oct. 3, 2009. No longer is he perceived as the game’s rising star, a 32-year-old with unlimited vision and the vigour of youth. No longer is he looked upon as one step ahead, ready to re-invent the GM position.

No, it seems others have adjusted to him faster than he has adjusted to them, and after four seasons the clock on his tenure is clearly ticking. Early, he was renowned for his knowledge of all 29 competitors — what skills they sought, what players they were willing to offer. He could call GMs to discuss trades he had no intention of making, simply for the knowledge, the information. It was gold.

Whenever he needed a third wheel to finish up a trade, he knew where to go to find the missing piece. He was the ringmaster with information as his whip. It was radical, game-changing stuff.

It was just a year ago that Anthopoulos shocked the baseball world by swinging blockbuster trades with the Marlins and Mets, signing Melky Cabrera and hiring the overlooked John Gibbons to manage a group that was a Las Vegas favourite. The national media fawned over his aggressive tactics and closed-mouth approach to dealing with other teams and the public. If info leaked, it was the other guy.

Ultimately, his team fell on its face and there was little, if any, sympathy within the GM fraternity.

...One executive at the recent winter meetings indicated that other GMs now realize that when they are talking to Anthopoulos about a potential trade, it may just be information gathering. Some have become more careful in their conversations. Maybe it’s time to adjust.

...Anthopoulos, like his predecessor, has found out Jays fans are knowledgeable and hard to fool.

Repoz Posted: December 29, 2013 at 07:15 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays

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   1. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 29, 2013 at 09:22 AM (#4625516)
There is no actual evidence (in TFA or anywhere else I know of) to support the headline; it's just Toronto's resident blowhard calling (again) for Anthopoulos's head.
   2. GregD Posted: December 29, 2013 at 10:28 AM (#4625532)
He does not have sympathy and some other GMs don't tell him every thing they are thinking. Have you ever read a more damning indictment?
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 29, 2013 at 10:42 AM (#4625541)
If Anthropoulos were fired, there'd be a long list of teams looking to offer him a job tomorrow. With good reason.
   4. Dale Sams Posted: December 29, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4625674)
Jays fans are knowledgeable and hard to fool.


Really? They sure seemed to think they had the AL East wrapped up 9 months ago.
   5. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 29, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4625704)
Really? They sure seemed to think they had the AL East wrapped up 9 months ago.

Yeah, #### Toronto fans for getting excited over having a chance for meaningful September games for the first time in 20 years. Bunch of no-nothing ########!
   6. Dale Sams Posted: December 29, 2013 at 02:52 PM (#4625734)
I lost all sympathy when they cheered Lackey's injury.
   7. McCoy Posted: December 29, 2013 at 03:01 PM (#4625742)
If Anthropoulos were fired, there'd be a long list of teams looking to offer him a job tomorrow. With good reason.

As what though? Jim Hendry has a job. So does Allard Baird, Dave Littlefield, and Cam Bonifay.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 29, 2013 at 03:06 PM (#4625746)

As what though? Jim Hendry has a job. So does Allard Baird, Dave Littlefield, and Cam Bonifay.


I'd take him as Cashman's replacement in 2 seconds.
   9. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: December 29, 2013 at 03:11 PM (#4625750)
Cam Bonifay is still a GM in MLB? Color me surprised.

And re: Lackey's injury....

I am an Angel fan and followed him from draft to debut and since. But he's an ass and while I wouldn't cheer his injury I can kind of understand it. He is a dim-wit and pitches for the opposition. He's the new Papelbon.
   10. McCoy Posted: December 29, 2013 at 03:13 PM (#4625753)
I'd take him as Cashman's replacement in 2 seconds.

So would I.
   11. KT's Pot Arb Posted: December 29, 2013 at 05:53 PM (#4625852)
He made a good trade with the Marlins and built what looked to be a playoff roster, and the team had one bad year.

Is there no variance in baseball now? Was he supposed to foresee Josh Johnson giving him 81 innings with a 6.2 ERA? Or Buhrle & Dickey to combine for an 4.2 ERA?

I mean do people really believe the Yankees were really deserving of 85 wins, and just accidentally got outscored by 21 runs all season?
   12. McCoy Posted: December 29, 2013 at 06:19 PM (#4625878)
I don't know why he thought Dickey at 38 was going to be a reliable ace. Buehrle did about what you'd expect.

Their offense scored about the same as they did in 2012 and their pitching did improve a little. Basically for the Blue Jays to play better in the 2013 you had to expect that Jose Reyes would give them a healthier version of his performance in 2011, Buerhle recapture his youth, Dickey to not turn back into a pumpkin, and Johnson to regain his pre-injury form. A pretty tall order.
   13. Greg K Posted: December 29, 2013 at 07:01 PM (#4625909)
Basically for the Blue Jays to play better in the 2013 you had to expect that Jose Reyes would give them a healthier version of his performance in 2011, Buerhle recapture his youth, Dickey to not turn back into a pumpkin, and Johnson to regain his pre-injury form. A pretty tall order.

I am rooting for Johnson, but him regaining his form won't help the Jays much. Signed a 1 year deal with the Padres.
   14. Greg K Posted: December 29, 2013 at 07:05 PM (#4625911)
I think the path to contention for the Jays was to replace the black holes of 2B and C with even sub-average players (kind of, sort of done at catcher, not done at all at second), pick up a starter from somewhere (not done yet) and hope someone like Drew Hutchison breaks out.

At the moment there hasn't been much done towards this plan.
   15. McCoy Posted: December 29, 2013 at 07:08 PM (#4625914)
I am rooting for Johnson, but him regaining his form won't help the Jays much. Signed a 1 year deal with the Padres.

2013 was the past season.
   16. Matthew E Posted: December 29, 2013 at 07:19 PM (#4625918)
I think Anthopoulos is a bright guy who does a lot of things well and works hard. That doesn't qualify him to keep his job forever, regardless of results, but I do think he's probably better than whoever the next guy they hire is going to be. The question is, is he capable of solving the systematic problems in the Jays' organization. Right now it doesn't look like he is, but, as I say, I don't think the next guy will do any better.

(To clarify: when I say "the next guy", I don't mean that I think Anthopoulos's firing is imminent. I just mean that no matter what kind of job he does, he isn't going to be there forever.)
   17. ptodd Posted: December 29, 2013 at 07:46 PM (#4625929)
And re: Lackey's injury....

I am an Angel fan and followed him from draft to debut and since. But he's an ass and while I wouldn't cheer his injury I can kind of understand it. He is a dim-wit and pitches for the opposition. He's the new Papelbon.


Don't know about the Papelbon part who I think pretended to be a dumb hick as part of his act, but his mother was a bank executive so I think he is probably not as dumb as he looked/acted, and he executed his plan to go for the money perfectly. No money left on the table by Paps.

Lackey left his wife who was stricken with breast cancer and had just had radical surgery. When asked about the divorce after the story was broken in the tabloids in the midst of the Red Sox collapse in 2011 he had a hissy fit and said he should not even have to deal with such questions. No explanation has been given by the lackey journalists in Boston but it looks pretty bad to me. Hey, maybe the wife asked for it and he did nothing wrong, but after the media used her illness as an excuse for his poor performance for much of 2011 it did not set well with me.

In fairness to Lackey he did acknowledge her in the ASG holding a card with her name during the cancer ceremony and his teammates all seem to like him, except perhaps Youkilis who is rumored to have blown the whistle on the chicken and beer thing (not sure I believe that).

I guess the knee jerk reaction is that private stuff is nobody's business, but when the HOF has a moral character clause and celebrity athletes (entertainers) make tens or hundreds of millions of dollars off the fans, is this really true?

Will be interesting to see if he really plays in 2015 for 500K or he forces an extension under threat of retirement.

As for Toronto, whomever made the decision to bring back Gibbons as manager is the problem there. If that was Anthopoulos he should be gone. If it was not, then that's another problem.
   18. Greg K Posted: December 29, 2013 at 08:34 PM (#4625968)
2013 was the past season.

I guess I'm just getting a head start on my New Years resolution to embarrass myself in new ways.
   19. Matthew E Posted: December 29, 2013 at 11:38 PM (#4626091)
As for Toronto, whomever made the decision to bring back Gibbons as manager is the problem there. If that was Anthopoulos he should be gone. If it was not, then that's another problem.
Totally disagree. I think Gibbons did a fine job in his first go-round with the team and didn't deserve to be fired. I think it was an inspired move to bring him back, and I don't think he was part of the problem in 2013.
   20. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 30, 2013 at 12:20 AM (#4626115)
his mother was a bank executive so I think he is probably not as dumb as he looked/acted,


hee-hee
   21. BrianBrianson Posted: December 30, 2013 at 05:25 AM (#4626206)
If Dick Griffin says it, you can safely assume it's not only wrong, but entirely confabulated, and something that would never occur to a right-thinking man.
   22. John Northey Posted: December 30, 2013 at 07:47 AM (#4626217)
Starting to see cracks in AA's support on other sites where he was praised a year ago. Basically, it lands under the 'what have you done for me lately' category. A good question is did he sell high on those prospects?
For Dickey: Noah Syndergaard, Wuilmer Becerra, John Buck and Travis d'Arnaud
Syndergaard is now viewed as a top pitching prospect having pitched well in A+ and AA at 20 (10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9) but was viewed as a top 100 prospect pre-2013 by both BA and MLB.com
Becerra repeated rookie ball and had a 646 OPS at age 18, far too soon to know if he'll be anything but not promising for a RF
d'Arnaud 58 OPS+ for the Mets in 112 PA, 286/420/514 in minors but AAA was Vegas, land of plenty for hitters. Now entering his age 25 season still a good prospect but doubt he is viewed as a top 25 (BA) or top 10 (MLB.com) anymore after the injury issues.
John Buck was a salary relief for the Jays ($6 mil, hit for an 84 OPS+)

In the Marlins trade: Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Nicolino, Henderson Alvarez, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick and Jeff Mathis
Mathis was the last piece - Jays didn't want to give him up as viewed as top defensive catcher, nothing changed
Marisnick viewed as one of the few hitting prospects in Jays system, just a 32 OPS+ in 118 PA, 840 OPS in AA/A+ last year, entering age 23 season so still solid prospect
Nicolino low K/9 figures (in the 6's) 4.96 ERA in AA after a 2.23 in A+ at 21. That low K figure will keep him low on prospect lists but was a top 100 last winter
DeSclafani was great in A+ and good in AA at 21, cumulative 8.0 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in his 2nd pro season at age 23 - should climb lists this year
Hechavarria first full time in majors had a 56 OPS+ and -2.1 rWAR...ugh at age 24
Alvarez solid 1.9 WAR in an injury season (17 starts). low K/9 but also super-low HR/9 (0.2). Will be living on the edge forever I suspect
Escobar is the big ouch with a 3.3 WAR for Tampa Bay at 30 for $5 mil with a $5 mil option for 2015 and $5 mil for 2014. That hurts.

I suspect the Jays miss Escobar, and would like to have kept DeSclafani. Marisnick would be part of the OF prospect logjam here (Gose, Pillar, Sierra all in AAA with Sierra likely to be the RH DH/LF) and Nicolino still a good prospect. But odds are Buehrle in his years here will have more WAR than DeSclafani & Nicolino combined will, Alvarez is a razors edge pitcher, and Escobar is scary (can be great but can also be a nightmare as shown by earning his way out of two cities).

Neither trade is a total disaster, although the Marlins certainly could be easily should Marisnick, DeSclafani or Nicolino develop. If kept would they get more this winter? Remember, everyone felt Johnson had a shot at a great year given his history and free agency (really need to stop thinking guys will do well just because of that).

Dickey is a solid mid-rotation starter as is Buehrle. The knuckleball effect (helping the next guy) seems very real based on all studies I've read pushing Dickey to a solid #2 if you factor that in. The question is what AA does this winter and what the Jays do this summer. If the Jays can win 90+ he is safe regardless of anything else. If they are sub-80 again I think he is in deep trouble.

One factor we don't think of often as fans though is cash. The Jays ratings improved a bit (over 500k watching each game on average) and so did attendance (#1 in improvement in MLB for 2013 vs 2012 ... 5,394 more per game). For bean counters who run the club those are two very big items. Improve both again this year and the teams W-L record wouldn't be that big a deal to them, although I doubt another improvement would occur without a jump or some other event (big trade, free agent, and/or Tanaka).
   23. Morph Posted: December 30, 2013 at 09:29 AM (#4626230)
I think one could argue, given the Blue Jays' difficulties developing players, that dumping that many prospects for risky commodities (I love Buerhle but think his contract is excessively lengthy and expensive, Reyes has the injury issues, Johnson had some red flags) was definitely questionable. If the Blue Jays' farm system had delivered in recent years, in combination with their proficiency at unearthing hidden potential (Bautista, EE) they would have been an excellent team. Perhaps they should have taken a conscious step backward in the name of developing a home-grown roster to pair with Bautista at the tail end of his prime, along with the other exported commodities (like Rasmus) These are really difficult decisions to make, and the divisional competition leaves very little margin for error.
   24. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 30, 2013 at 09:36 AM (#4626231)
Nice analysis John, thanks.

I'm not in Toronto, but I can't see the Jays maintaining the influx of fans they got last year.

The resurgence of Rasmus (and Lind, to a degree) in 2013 was nice, but unfortunately those are about the only positives I can take out of 2013 as it relates to what might happen in 2014. Morrow still had some major breakout potential coming into last year, but that's now gone as far as I'm concerned. He'll be 30 in July and has only managed to throw 702 innings in the big leagues, with only one season as a starter (of only 124 IP) having any value.

Lawrie may still surprise me, but as it stands he's a merely average player (below avg. bat, above avg. glove). He's put up a 96 OPS+ over the last two seasons, which certainly isn't horrible for a guy going into his age 24 season, but considering he mashed as a 21-year old its a big disappointment. Some Jays bloggers tried to make a big deal out of his improvement with that bat after the ASB last year, but he then puked out a .243/.304/.311 line in after the end of August.

Gose has not shown any indication that he can be a valuable starting OF, but that may change. For someone touted as a burner on the basepaths, his 19 steals in 108 career games is pretty underwhelming.

Its looking to me like a .500 record will be an achievement for the 2014 Jays.

   25. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 30, 2013 at 09:56 AM (#4626237)
Matt, isn't that exactly why the Jays should trade prospects? They're bad at turning prospects into players, so trade your prospects for players who are already great?
   26. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: December 30, 2013 at 05:20 PM (#4626659)
Cam Bonifay is still a GM in MLB? Color me surprised.


No. Bonifay, like Baird was hired to work in an area that could still be considered to match his strengths. Call it the reverse Peter Principle.

Also, Griffin hates all GMs not named Pat Gillick.
   27. zonk Posted: December 30, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4626681)
In fairness, if you're going to hate all GMs but one -- Pat Gillick isn't at all a bad choice to be the "one".

As for AA, best laid plans, I guess... I mean - it's awfully hard even with hindsight not to like what AA tried to do. Who knew the Red Sox were just going through a blip year rather than crumbling? The Yankees looked old. With the Orioles coming and the Rays always cheap - but young - it was just the right time for a team like the Kays to go for it. I think the moves were still solid. I think you make that Marlins trade 100 times out of 100. Maybe the Dickey trade is more questionable, as I think Syndegaard was well thought of even before his bust-off - but it's still defensively.

   28. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 30, 2013 at 05:38 PM (#4626689)
Starting to see cracks in AA's support on other sites where he was praised a year ago. Basically, it lands under the 'what have you done for me lately' category.


Isn't the proper question to ask Anthopoulos just "What have you done for me"? In his first year as GM they won 85 games, then 81 the next season, now 73-74 in the most reason two. I get that the process has generally seemed good and I'm not saying he should be fired but quite frankly if he doesn't get results soon then the high opinion of him that many people have is going to enter #6org territory. At some point he needs to actually win some damn games or it isn't going to matter how good his moves look on paper.

I also think that him getting the Angels to take on almost the entire Vernon Wells contract and throw in a good player is having too much influence on the general opinion of him. One sharp move does not a successful GM make, especially since he made a pretty questionable move shortly afterwards by trading Napoli for a reliever (and not even a great one at that).
   29. Morph Posted: December 30, 2013 at 08:01 PM (#4626797)
Matt, isn't that exactly why the Jays should trade prospects? They're bad at turning prospects into players, so trade your prospects for players who are already great?


Definitely true, and I don't fault the guy for trying to make a move, as # 27 lays out. However, when swinging deals, there are usually value deficiencies surrounding the established players involved, otherwise they wouldn't be available. For example, in that defensible trade, there were still worries about all the Marlins players (especially the commitment of the contracts), despite everyone recognizing they were talented. It's extremely rare to acquire a true franchise changer in a trade, which is why the value surrendered and value returned often come close enough to canceling each other that the process becomes maddening. The alternative is putting together a deep team that mitigates it's weaknesses with strong pitching and average production all over the place, even down to the bench, like the A's of recent vintage. Or totally rebuilding with high draft picks. The A's are weird because they started rebuilding, and morphed into that Franken-team seemingly out of nowhere.
   30. ...and Toronto selects: Troy Tulowitzki Posted: December 31, 2013 at 12:07 AM (#4626924)

"One sharp move does not a successful GM make"

*One* sharp/good move eh?
   31. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 31, 2013 at 01:41 AM (#4626947)
I didn't mean it's the only sharp move he has made, just that when he made that trade there was this huge outbreak of "AA is a brilliant GM" opinion based on it that hasn't left peoples' minds. I think the situation is far closer to Cameron's over-enthusiastic evaluation of Jack Zduriencik than most realize.
   32. kwarren Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:22 AM (#4627023)
Also, Griffin hates all GMs not named Pat Gillick.


And probably with good reason. Gillick did the job (in Toronto and everywhere else he has been). Nobody else has in Toronto.
   33. Matthew E Posted: December 31, 2013 at 10:52 AM (#4627052)
Isn't the proper question to ask Anthopoulos just "What have you done for me"? In his first year as GM they won 85 games, then 81 the next season, now 73-74 in the most reason two. I get that the process has generally seemed good and I'm not saying he should be fired but quite frankly if he doesn't get results soon then the high opinion of him that many people have is going to enter #6org territory. At some point he needs to actually win some damn games or it isn't going to matter how good his moves look on paper.
Well, then, he's probably not long for his job, because as it stands right now the Jays' organization just doesn't have enough talent to get anything done, and it looks like they won't for years.

Which almost certainly means that Beeston and Gibbons and much of the rest of the front office are on their way out too, and ownership is going to have to find a whole new set of guys to be in charge. And I don't think they have a clue how to do that.
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 31, 2013 at 12:33 PM (#4627117)
And probably with good reason. Gillick did the job (in Toronto and everywhere else he has been). Nobody else has in Toronto.


Of course, in Toronto (as with every other job in baseball that he's ever had), Gillick bailed out right before things looked like they were going to start going bad for the team employing him. Leaving someone else to clean up the mess.
   35. kwarren Posted: December 31, 2013 at 01:38 PM (#4627186)
And probably with good reason. Gillick did the job (in Toronto and everywhere else he has been). Nobody else has in Toronto.

Of course, in Toronto (as with every other job in baseball that he's ever had), Gillick bailed out right before things looked like they were going to start going bad for the team employing him. Leaving someone else to clean up the mess.


Not sure if this supposed to be a dig against Gillick. It certainly wasn't his mess that needed to be cleaned up.

He left Toronto when Labatt's ( the Jays' owner) was sold to a Belgian Brewery who didn't even know that Labatt's owned a baseball franchise. Not a good sign. At the time the Jays were two time defending World Series Champions.

He left the Orioles because Peter Angelos decided to start over ruling Gillick's decisions.

He left Seattle because he wanted to retire in Toronto, supposedly. And for a while he did. I think he was hoping to re-land the Toronto gig once Rogers bought the team, but it never happened. For the Blue Jays sake it probably should have...but Riciardi and the wonder kid Anthopolis were all the rage. He did work with Anthopolis as an advisor for AA's first year, but left when it was apparent that Alex had no use for him.

He became an advisor only in Philadelphia, because they insisted on sticking with old farts.
   36. AROM Posted: December 31, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4627267)
He left Toronto when Labatt's ( the Jays' owner) was sold to a Belgian Brewery who didn't even know that Labatt's owned a baseball franchise.


That almost happened to me once. While vacationing in Florida I saw a really nice painting that I was going to buy for my wife, but the shifty art dealer was trying to offload a ballclub too.
   37. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 31, 2013 at 03:21 PM (#4627273)
While vacationing in Florida I saw a really nice painting that I was going to buy for my wife, but the shifty art dealer was trying to offload a ballclub too.


Nonsense, here in Florida our shifty art dealers cling to their ballclubs even though everyone wishes they'd offload them.
   38. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 31, 2013 at 03:27 PM (#4627274)
Matt, isn't that exactly why the Jays should trade prospects? They're bad at turning prospects into players, so trade your prospects for players who are already great?

I guess if you're the GM that's sort of logical, but if you're ownership you'd probably wonder why your GM is so bad at instituting a player development system.

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