Had Fred McGriff Played In The “Second Deadball Era” And Not The Steroid Era He’d Already Be In HOF

This was also posted in the essential “Fred McGriff Hall of Fame Hub”. As if you didn’t know.

Had McGriff played in the “Second Deadball Era” in McCovey, Stargell, or Williams’ career span, he would have retired after the 1977 or 1980 season and would have first been eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in ‘83 or ‘86.  McCovey and Stargell both made it into the Hall of Fame on their first try, with McCovey picking up 81.4% of the vote on the ‘86 ballot and Stargell collecting 82.4% on the ‘88 ballot.  Williams didn’t have quite as easy a road, making his debut on a very crowded ‘82 ballot that included fellow first time nominees Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson.  Aaron and Robinson were easily elected with 97.8% and 89.2% of the vote, while Williams drew just 23.4%.  The following year, Williams’ support jumped to 40.9% and continued to rise, about 10% a year, until he was voted in on his sixth ballot in 1987 with 85.7% of the vote.

Based on Baseball Reference’s Neutralizer link, McGriff’s career numbers translated into the “Second Deadball Era” would have been just a tick below McCovey and Stargell’s but right on par with or slightly better than Williams’.  One drawback of the Neutralizer link is that it does seem to understate the effects of the “Second Deadball Era” on McGriff’s home run totals. Though, I think we can safely assume that had McGriff played during the “Second Deadball Era” at McCovey or Stargell’s home ballparks, he would have hit around 450 or 475 homers with a batting average in the low to mid .270s, and probably been elected to the Hall of Fame somewhere around his fifth or sixth ballot.  And, had McGriff, like Williams, spent most of his home games aiming for the stands above the ivy covered brick walls of Wrigley, he likely would have hit just under 500 longballs with a batting average around .280, and rather easily been voted into Cooperstown—possibly on his first ballot.  Unfortunately, McGriff spent his career playing alongside the PED users of the Steroid Era who made a mockery of the home run and now has the misfortune of being overshadowed by those same PED users on the Hall of Fame ballot.