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Monday, May 21, 2018

Hader’s feats generating All-Star, Cy Young buzz

In the wake of Hader’s latest strikeout special, a 2 1/3-inning outing Saturday in which he struck out the final six batters he faced for a 5-4 win over the Twins, here are some of the more eye-popping things about the left-hander’s start to the season:

• Ninety-five hitters have dug in against Hader. Fifty-six of them have struck out. That 59-percent strikeout rate would shatter the all-time record (min. 25 batters faced) set by the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman in 2014, when he struck out 52.5 percent of hitters. The only other pitcher in history to strike out more than half of the hitters he faced was then-Braves closer Craig Kimbrel at 50.2 percent in ‘12.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:08 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, josh hader, so hot right now

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:36 PM (#5676728)
Please. He has a 1.32 ERA in 27 IP. Scherzer has a 1.78 in 65 IP. DeGrom has a 1.75 in 51 IP.
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5676744)
Adam Ottavino has a 1.08 ERA in 25 innings, and he has to pitch in Coors. But he's only struck out 44 of the 90 batters to face him - not even half!
   3. puck Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5676883)
Also unusual about Hader--his usage pattern. 27 1/3 innings in 16 appearances. 10 of his 16 games have been 2 innings or more.
   4. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: May 22, 2018 at 02:18 AM (#5677082)
Again, there are 2 things which continue to happen in baseball which should never happen. A reliever is considered/wins the Cy Young award. A reliever is elected to the HOF.

Hader is great. Really fun to watch. I always like watching pitchers make batsman look how the rest of us would look if we were in the batters box.

However you need to do your thing over 175 or more innings and I'll have a look your way and consider your body of work for the year in comparing you to guys who are striking out 230+ over 200+ innings.
   5. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 04:30 AM (#5677084)
Also unusual about Hader--his usage pattern. 27 1/3 innings in 16 appearances. 10 of his 16 games have been 2 innings or more.
The Rise of the New Fireman, Josh Hader
   6. Blastin Posted: May 22, 2018 at 05:23 AM (#5677088)
Again, there are 2 things which continue to happen in baseball which should never happen. A reliever is considered/wins the Cy Young award. A reliever is elected to the HO


Should almost never happen. But this is still not good enough to be the case in Hader's situation.
   7. Leroy Kincaid Posted: May 22, 2018 at 06:54 AM (#5677094)
That 59-percent strikeout rate would shatter the all-time record (min. 25 batters faced) set by the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman in 2014, when he struck out 52.5 percent of hitters.


Crediting relievers with the strikeout rate record is like giving the batting title to a pinch-hitter.
   8. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 22, 2018 at 07:18 AM (#5677097)
Again, there are 2 things which continue to happen in baseball which should never happen. A reliever is considered/wins the Cy Young award. A reliever is elected to the HOF.


You're against Mariano Rivera's inevitable induction?
   9. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 22, 2018 at 07:24 AM (#5677099)
Crediting relievers with the strikeout rate record is like giving the batting title to a pinch-hitter.


This strikeout rate record isn't actually a thing, is it? And if it was, you would presumably have to qualify same as for any other pitching category, right?
   10. Rally Posted: May 22, 2018 at 07:30 AM (#5677102)
I don’t ever want to see a 60-70 inning reliever win the Cy. I suppose it is possible that one could deserve it through leverage/dominance if the 200 inning starter is extinct and the top guys only pitch 170. It is very possible that an old style fireman with something like 60 games/ 110 innings could deserve it over a 170 IP starter.
   11. Rally Posted: May 22, 2018 at 07:35 AM (#5677105)
Hader was a minor league starter for the most part. Last year he was striking out just under a batter per inning, walking 5.4 per 9, with an ERA over 5 in AAA. Called up, moved to the pen and nobody has made contact since. We all know relieving is easier than starting but this is ridiculous.
   12. puck Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5677163)
We all know relieving is easier than starting but this is ridiculous.


Like Wade Davis. He moved to the pen (with two teams) and was untouchable for a few years.
   13. puck Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5677168)
Because of the multi inning stints, Hader has gotten people to bring up Gossage, the good one, who throws fastballs and doesn't do the old man complainy thing. Gossage was 0.2 bb-ref WAR off the AL lead in 1975. Good to be reminded at times that guy had some crazy good years.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5677171)
We all know relieving is easier than starting but this is ridiculous.


Like Wade Davis. He moved to the pen (with two teams) and was untouchable for a few years.

I was just about to post that this should be known as the Wade Davis Effect.

And it was even more dramatic than just what we saw in KC and Chicago. In between his awful starting stints in Tampa Bay, he was a very effective reliever there.
   15. Ithaca2323 Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5677198)
You're against Mariano Rivera's inevitable induction?


You weren't asking me, but here's how I feel about relievers and the Cy Young:

In 2016, Zach Britton earned 5 first-place votes based on 67 innings of work,
In 2001, Pedro Martinez threw 116 innings, was on pace for (roughly) a 9 WAR season and did not appear on a single ballot

This sums up how I feel about relievers and the Hall:

Eric Gagne threw 643 innings in the majors, and earned two Hall of Fame votes
Brandon Webb threw 1,319 innings, and he'd need to come back and play three more years just to be eligible to appear on the ballot

   16. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5677201)
You weren't asking me,
It's the internet! Everyone is asking everyone else everything.
   17. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: May 22, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5677244)
(#11) Wow, don't mention that he was pitching in Colorado Springs, OK.
Not a lot of nice things to say about Josh Hader. At least he's going
to pitch 90 innings instead of 55 like Trevor Hoffman.
   18. fhomess Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5677261)
To me, the Cy Young award and HoF induction are two different types of honors. The Cy Young award is for the best pitcher in the league and should always go to a starting pitcher, or at least a reliever who pitched enough innings to be as valuable as one.

The HoF is about honoring the best players the game has seen, but there's a context of role, too. A career reliever is asked to do a different job than a career starter, and I absolutely see a place for both of them in the HoF in context of their peers. I also have no issue with having a lower barrier of entry for starters than for relievers, as starting is a more difficult job. I think that if historical pitcher usage patterns looked like they do today, we wouldn't really be asking this question.
   19. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5677264)
Hader has given up five runs this season on seven hits, which is crazy. His BABIP is .167. All these numbers are such extreme outliers that you figure everything is going to come crashing back to earth very soon.
   20. Ithaca2323 Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5677276)
A career reliever is asked to do a different job than a career starter,


No he's not. They're doing the exact same job. Pitching is pitching. He's just doing that job 30% as much the starter is.
   21. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5677281)
I don't think there is any real buzz about Hader winning the CYA this year. Relievers usually only get mentioned lately when there's a shortage of starters putting up CYA-caliber seasons, especially on contending teams. That doesn't seem to be a problem this season. There may be a few voters who put Hader too high on their ballot, but that's not enough to win. The All-Star Game is another matter, and he's having the type of season that warrants selection and makes the game interesting.
   22. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5677289)
Yeah Scherzer seems to be the odds on favorite in the NL this year and there are a few other NL starters having dominant starts so not worried about this coming to fruition.
   23. Rally Posted: May 22, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5677302)
(#11) Wow, don't mention that he was pitching in Colorado Springs, OK.


Colorado Springs last year had 8 pitchers making 10+ starts. 6 had better AAA numbers than Hader. None are pitching remotely as well in a MLB bullpen.
   24. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5677304)
he's having the type of season that warrants selection and makes the [All-Star] game interesting.

I think just the opposite. A parade of anonymous 30-inning-wonder middle relievers facing B-list "All-Star" hitters in the middle and late innings is exactly what makes the ASG less interesting to me.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5677317)
No he's not. They're doing the exact same job. Pitching is pitching. He's just doing that job 30% as much the starter is.

I agree. My personal HoF would have zero RP.
   26. Rally Posted: May 22, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5677332)
Some strikeout/ 9 IP records.

No inning floor

36 pitchers 27.0 - Ray Krawczyk with 2 ip, 6 k in 1989 pitching the most

10 innings

Hader 18.44

25 innings

Hader 18.44

50 innings

Chapman 17.67, 2014

75 innings

Carlos Marmol 15.99, 2010

100 innings

Randy Johnson 13.41, 2001. Johnson also holds all strikeout rate records up to 250 innings, since he threw 249 2/3 that year

270 innings

Randy Johnson, 12.06, 1999

300 innings

Nolan Ryan 10.57, 1973
   27. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5677381)
1000 IP career

Chris Sale 10.63 over 1387.1 IP
   28. Panik on the streets of London (Trout! Trout!) Posted: May 22, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5677389)
If Yu Darvish throws another 127.2 IP this season and his K rate doesn't disintegrate, he will be on top for career k/9 for pitchers over 1000 IP. He is currently at an even 11.0 K/9. Obviously Sale is still pitching this year too so he has to maintain a higher rate than he does, AND at his current innings level he is not on top due to the likes of RP's like Billy Wagner (903 IP, 11.9 K/9) but still pretty impressive.
   29. Leroy Kincaid Posted: May 22, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5677572)
This strikeout rate record isn't actually a thing, is it? And if it was, you would presumably have to qualify same as for any other pitching category, right?


Well, it's a thing that can be computed. I'll grant that it's not as celebrated as H/AB. I don't know what the minimum IP is to qualify. When Chapman set the "record" he faced 202 batters. So using the Lahman database with stats through 2017 (I'm too cheap to subscribe to Bref's index) I went with a minimum of 200 batters faced in a season. Of the top 100 there were only 13 seasons by SPs. All of them after 2000 except for a couple of seasons by Clemens (1997 & 1998). Yu Darvish had the best: 32.94% in 2013.

   30. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 22, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5677598)
There are minimum playing time requirements for leading a league in a rate stat. For pitchers, it's 1 IP per team game. The "record" that Chapman holds is not an official one for the same reason that you don't see the single season BA leaderboard peppered with guys who hit .500 in a dozen ABs.
   31. Leroy Kincaid Posted: May 23, 2018 at 06:35 AM (#5677905)
Ninety-five hitters have dug in against Hader. Fifty-six of them have struck out. That 59-percent strikeout rate would shatter the all-time record (min. 25 batters faced) set by the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman in 2014, when he struck out 52.5 percent of hitters.


Looks like the excerpt has been edited(?)

There are minimum playing time requirements for leading a league in a rate stat. For pitchers, it's 1 IP per team game. The "record" that Chapman holds is not an official one for the same reason that you don't see the single season BA leaderboard peppered with guys who hit .500 in a dozen ABs.


I was only addressing it as record because that's what it was called, whether "official" or not. There are lots of things that may not actually be a thing. Doesn't mean they can't be criticized.
   32. Rally Posted: May 23, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5677949)
There are minimum playing time requirements for leading a league in a rate stat. For pitchers, it's 1 IP per team game. The "record" that Chapman holds is not an official one for the same reason that you don't see the single season BA leaderboard peppered with guys who hit .500 in a dozen ABs.


To me whether it meets some official criteria is a technicality. That is an impressive record for Chapman because he did it while facing 200 batters, and had a better rate than anybody even if you set the batters faced criteria down to 25.


   33. Leroy Kincaid Posted: May 23, 2018 at 04:49 PM (#5678404)
To me whether it meets some official criteria is a technicality. That is an impressive record for Chapman because he did it while facing 200 batters, and had a better rate than anybody even if you set the batters faced criteria down to 25.


David Price faced the most batters that year (1009). At Chapman's rate that would be 529 strikeouts. It's an unsustainable rate with a starter's workload and is only possible when pitching about an inning per outing. So it's not that impressive. Especially when you consider how much strikeouts have gone up, in large part due to how the batters swing. You couldn't do that in say Walter Johnson's day when the batters were trying to put the ball in play more than over the fence.
   34. Jose Canusee Posted: May 24, 2018 at 10:09 PM (#5679319)
If Darth Hader is really a Sith, Yoda warns there is another one somewhere.
P.S. Do people call Yu Darvish "Yuda"?

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