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Sunday, April 07, 2013

Hall of Fame 3B Schmidt, Brett undecided about attending Cooperstown ceremony in July

Not what Gossage was counting on.

Hall of Fame third basemen George Brett and Mike Schmidt are both undecided if they’ll attend this summer’s induction ceremonies at Cooperstown.

No one was elected to the Hall of Fame this year. For only the second time in four decades, baseball writers didn’t give any player the 75 percent required for induction. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa were among the Steriod Era stars shut out .

Houston Astros second baseman Craig Biggio, 20th on the career list with 3,060 hits, and former star catcher Mike Piazza also failed to receive enough votes to earn induction

Schmidt, who hit 548 career home runs with the Philadelphia Phillies, expected Biggio and Piazza to eventually join him in Cooperstown.

“I believe they’ll both get in the Hall of Fame in the next year or year after,” Schmidt said. “For sure, Biggio. They’ve got a little bit of a hill to climb next year with all the attention that’s going to go to the other guys that’ll be locks for the first ballot.”

...Brett, who supported Biggio, rolled off the 500-homer, 3,000-hit, 300-win milestones that used to mean automatic entry to Cooperstown.

“I think it’s going to be harder and harder for these guys to get in nowadays because of the scandal that’s followed baseball the last 10, 15 years,” Brett said.

Repoz Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:51 AM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. McCoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:09 AM (#4406594)
I hope they don't go. In fact I hope no past players attend. Would send a message to the Hall of Fame right quick.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:31 AM (#4406600)
Brett and Schmidt should go. They need to support their fellow third baseman, Deacon White!

(I'm kidding, of course. Why should anyone be motivated to go this year? Anyone who does is doing the HOF a huge favor.)
   3. BDC Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:27 AM (#4406622)
the 500-homer, 3,000-hit, 300-win milestones that used to mean automatic entry


Is Biggio the first (non-steroid-test-failing, non-gambling-banned) 3000-hit player to have to wait at least one ballot? I know there have been some others at those milestones who've waited a few years (Mathews, Killebrew, Niekro, Sutton). Brett is right that they all get elected eventually, barring external factors, but even those huge milestones have not been first-ballot guarantees.
   4. AROM Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:31 AM (#4406624)
So, does Deacon have a great grandchild to deliver his induction speech? Or do the need to search for a distant cousin?
   5. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:43 AM (#4406631)
Is Biggio the first (non-steroid-test-failing, non-gambling-banned) 3000-hit player to have to wait at least one ballot?


Paul Waner. Though the rules were different then, he didn't go in until 8 years after his last game and had to climb up the BBBWA leaderboard. I don't think any of the others who retired in the Hall of Fame era had to wait until Biggio.



Brett is right that they all get elected eventually, barring external factors, but even those huge milestones have not been first-ballot guarantees.


Yes. I think automatic milestones has served as really misleading shorthand. Those numbers result in enshrinement because it has historically required Hall of Fame performance to hit them, but I don't think many of the voters have ever felt required to vote for someone simply because they hit one of those markers, which is often the perception.

A Dave Kingman with 500 homers was never getting near enshrinement.
   6. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4406634)
Is Biggio the first (non-steroid-test-failing, non-gambling-banned) 3000-hit player to have to wait at least one ballot?


A couple of the early backlog guys (e.g. Collins, Lajoie, etc...) had to wait a couple of years and Waner did as well but the voting procedures were very different then. His first "modern" election date saw him get 71% and he went in on what would be year two in today's standards.

Coke to SoSH
   7. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2013 at 12:05 PM (#4406643)
Yes. I think automatic milestones has served as really misleading shorthand. Those numbers result in enshrinement because it has historically required Hall of Fame performance to hit them, but I don't think many of the voters have ever felt required to vote for someone simply because they hit one of those markers, which is often the perception.
I suspect they do automatically vote for milestones, but I don't know how we can tell whether you're correct or whether we've just been lucky enough to avoid the Kingman-esque test case so far.

The best actual example I can think of is Paul Molitor. It's not a great example because he didn't just squeak over the line -- he had 3,319 hits -- so it'd be tough to get him down to 2,750 or something without compromising his "true" credentials. Still, I don't think a DH with 234 homers and 2,750 hits would make the Hall of Fame through the BBWAA at all¹, yet with 3,319, he got 85% of the vote on his first ballot. Like I said, that's a guess on my part, hypothetical until someone hits a milestone without having much of a case otherwise, which is difficult to do, but not impossible.

¹ They'd probably be wrong not to vote for him anyway -- he wasn't a DH his whole career, he had speed, hit doubles, etc. -- but I don't think they would.
   8. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2013 at 12:25 PM (#4406657)
Can't edit previous post anymore, but considering it further, I wonder if, if we "took away" Molitor's hits by turning them into walks, we would essentially get Edgar Martinez, a DH who hit .312 with 309 HR, and whom I nonetheless don't think will be elected by the BBWAA.
   9. AROM Posted: April 07, 2013 at 12:53 PM (#4406669)
He'd be like Tim Raines then.
   10. Baldrick Posted: April 07, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4406684)
Can't edit previous post anymore, but considering it further, I wonder if, if we "took away" Molitor's hits by turning them into walks, we would essentially get Edgar Martinez, a DH who hit .312 with 309 HR, and whom I nonetheless don't think will be elected by the BBWAA.

Molitor had 4000 more plate appearances than Edgar, and had substantially worse rate stats. They're not really very similar players except for spending a bunch of time at DH and not hitting homeruns.
   11. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 07, 2013 at 01:35 PM (#4406708)
I suspect they do automatically vote for milestones, but I don't know how we can tell whether you're correct or whether we've just been lucky enough to avoid the Kingman-esque test case so far.


Adam Dunn may yet get there.
   12. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 07, 2013 at 03:04 PM (#4406811)
Brett and Schmidt were drafted back-to-back in the second round on the 1971 draft. I'm guessing that they are the best back-to-back non-first round draft picks ever.
   13. McCoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 03:31 PM (#4406850)
I think the closest I can get is Rickey Henderson and Jack Morris in 1976 which isn't too shabby when you consider that Rickey was drafted at the bottom of the 4th round and Morris was drafted at the top of the 5th.

Current back to back players:
Hunter Pence-Dustin Pedroia
Adam Lind-Ian Desmond
Jonathon Papelbon-Michael Bourn
   14. Gonfalon B. Posted: April 07, 2013 at 03:53 PM (#4406879)
Randy Johnson and Will Clark were drafted consecutively in the 4th round in 1982, but neither one signed.
   15. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 07, 2013 at 04:17 PM (#4406896)
They're not really very similar players except for spending a bunch of time at DH and not hitting homeruns.


Edgar hit 309 home runs, and topped 20 HR for seven consecutive years, with a high of 37. I don't think you can say that he didn't hit home runs.
   16. SoSH U at work Posted: April 07, 2013 at 04:38 PM (#4406911)
I suspect they do automatically vote for milestones, but I don't know how we can tell whether you're correct or whether we've just been lucky enough to avoid the Kingman-esque test case so far.

The best actual example I can think of is Paul Molitor. It's not a great example because he didn't just squeak over the line -- he had 3,319 hits -- so it'd be tough to get him down to 2,750 or something without compromising his "true" credentials. Still, I don't think a DH with 234 homers and 2,750 hits would make the Hall of Fame through the BBWAA at all¹, yet with 3,319, he got 85% of the vote on his first ballot. Like I said, that's a guess on my part, hypothetical until someone hits a milestone without having much of a case otherwise, which is difficult to do, but not impossible.

¹ They'd probably be wrong not to vote for him anyway -- he wasn't a DH his whole career, he had speed, hit doubles, etc. -- but I don't think they would.


That's a slightly different position. I firmly believe that reaching a milestone does goose the process for the deserving, and Molitor is most definitely deserving.

What I don't see evidence of is that it can turn otherwise unworthy players, such as Dunn if he reaches 500 homers, or Edgar Renteria, had he hung around for 3,000 hits, into Cooperstownian timber. And if it can't do that, then it really isn't an automatic number. The fact that it took Mathews, Killebrew and Sutton, all qualified Hall of Famers, several ballots to get in suggests that a substantial number of writers didn't just check off their names as soon as they hit 500 or 300.

The only possible exception would be Brock, but being both the all-time single-season and career stolen base record holders when he retired, on top of his postseason performance and the 3K, made him a fairly easy choice for the BBWAA.
   17. Baldrick Posted: April 07, 2013 at 04:38 PM (#4406913)
Edgar hit 309 home runs, and topped 20 HR for seven consecutive years, with a high of 37. I don't think you can say that he didn't hit home runs.

Oh sure. I just mean 'not hitting homeruns' to the extent that you'd expect from a guy whose HOF case is almost entirely offensive.
   18. GregD Posted: April 07, 2013 at 04:49 PM (#4406919)
Adam Dunn may yet get there.
The ESPN Career Assessment calculator gives him a 97% chance of reaching 500. That seems high, but I would certainly bet even money on him making it, and possibly give odds.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:00 PM (#4406931)
Yeah, they probably aren't automatic. 500 HR certainly no longer will be (but 550 or 600 might). But they give a massive boost. True, Kingman with 500 HR probably doesn't make it or come particularly close but Kingman with 500 HR probably stays on the ballot with a respectable vote total for 15 years rather than falling off after one ballot. Don Larsen lasted 15 years on the ballot, peaking at 12%, all just for throwing a perfect game in the WS. I suspect that if you gave Murphy another 50-100 HR, he'd be in. And the best comparison is probably not Molitor-Edgar but Brock-Raines. Brock had more than the 3,000 hits going for him of course and most of the difference is due to voters of that era not having a clue about the value of walks and over-rating the value of stolen bases. But a good chunk of that gap is due to 3,000 hits.
   20. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:03 PM (#4406936)
500 HR certainly no longer will be (but 550 or 600 might).

I dunno... I have the impression that Thome, who is over 600 HRs, is going to be waiting around a bit to get elected to the HOF.
   21. McCoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:03 PM (#4406937)
3,000 hits, all time leader in base stealing, single season leader in base stealing, and a WS hero made him a lock whether he should have been or not.
   22. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:11 PM (#4406952)
The 300-win pitchers are also instructive. People think of 300 wins as an automatic lock now (and it probably does mean more given the number if innings that guys pitch today, but Early Wynn took 4 years to get in, Gaylord Perry took 3, Niekro and Sutton each took 5. I don't think there should be a distinction between first-ballot guys and non-first ballot guys, but historically it has often been very difficult to make it in on the first ballot.
   23. djordan Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:15 PM (#4406954)
@ Paste, isn't it safe to say in 2013 that 600 Home Runs is the new 500 for enshrinement purposes? By the time Dunn gets his five years in, WAR will have a MUCH, much stronger impact on the process, in my view. And I doubt he reaches 600 HRs. He'd have to hit 40 dingers into his year 38. Possible, I suppose, just not a bet I'd make.
   24. flournoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:24 PM (#4406971)
The ESPN Career Assessment calculator gives him a 97% chance of reaching 500. That seems high, but I would certainly bet even money on him making it, and possibly give odds.


That seems absurdly high. I doubt the calculator takes anything into account other than total homers, yearly home run output, and age. Would anyone be remotely surprised if Dunn completely sucks this year and only hits a dozen or so homers, a la 2011? And then next year, in the final year of his contract, gets cut and doesn't find another big league job? I don't know what kind of odds I would give that particular scenario, but I'd give at least 50/50 odds on him washing out before 500.
   25. BDC Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:31 PM (#4406985)
Early Wynn took 4 years to get in

Wynn might have been hurt by reaching 300. If he'd retired after 1960, with 284 wins, he might have been better-perceived; his hanging on to get his 300th eroded his image. (Biggio may have suffered something of that effect, too.)
   26. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:45 PM (#4407009)
SoSH, I fear the the fat lady is warming up to sing re our Johnny Damon bet.

Did I say if he wasn't signed on May 1st I'd pay up? Our was it the end of May. Either way, you might as well start selecting your baseball-reference page.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: April 07, 2013 at 05:49 PM (#4407015)
I thought it was the All-Star break, but I suppose it probably doesn't matter.

Assuming nothing changes, we'll split the difference and I'll let you know in June.

   28. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:02 PM (#4407035)
Done.
   29. Bruce Markusen Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:30 PM (#4407074)
Why should Hall of Famers be motivated to go to Cooperstown for Induction Weekend? First off, they're treated to a weekend at the Otesaga Hotel with an opportunity to socialize with their friends in baseball. Second, they can honor the legacies of White, Ruppert, and O'Day, who are now full-fledged members of the Hall of Fame. Third, they'll give baseball fans a chance to see them, get their autographs, and possibly ask them a question at one of the Hall of Fame programs.

The weekend is a celebration of baseball and its history. It's good for the game, good for the Hall of Famers, and good for the fans.
   30. McCoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:34 PM (#4407079)
Apparently the writers don't understand that since they failed to elect anyone. Perhaps you guys at the Hall should change your procedures for the good of the game, the hall of famers, and the fans.
   31. Gonfalon B. Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:51 PM (#4407090)
There will be thousands and thousands fewer fans this July, and their questions are going to include "Why didn't anybody get elected?" and "What do you think about steroids, Vol. 30,000?" White's last game was when George Brett was negative-63 years old. How's room service at the Otesaga?

Everybody loves the induction ceremony, but this year the writers really screwed the pooch. I wish Schmidt would show up. His comments have always been among the most interesting and honest on the Subject of All Subjects. And the writers need and deserve every possible kick in the ass they can get as they embark on their quest to diminish an institution with a generation of spite voting.
   32. John Northey Posted: April 07, 2013 at 06:54 PM (#4407094)
I suspect a lot won't want to go due to the fact they'll be hit with questions about steroids from the writers. 'would you be here if Bonds was voted in, how do you feel about steroids, would you have done them, blah blah blah'

Gotta figure that, outside of publicity addicts like Gossage, most would have zero interest in going through that. They'd much rather be talking about how great it is to see a guy voted in who they played against/respected/knew. But instead they get to celebrate a lot of dead people. Morbid really.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 07:05 PM (#4407104)
I suspect a lot won't want to go due to the fact they'll be hit with questions about steroids from the writers. 'would you be here if Bonds was voted in, how do you feel about steroids, would you have done them, blah blah blah


Agree. I think that since there is nobody alive being inducted that too many of the questions are going to be of the nature "would you rather be here inducting McGwire, or here not inducting anyone?" type of vein. Forcing the guys who have carefully stayed out of the discussion into committing to a side.
   34. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:58 PM (#4407178)
Here's something related to this thread I've never before considered, even though I've been to several induction ceremonies. Here's a snippet from a press release by the HOF in early July, 2012:

"As of July 6, the Hall of Fame members expected to return to Cooperstown to honor the Class of 2012 include:

Roberto Alomar
Rollie Fingers
Sandy Koufax
Frank Robinson
Luis Aparicio
Carlton Fisk
Juan Marichal
Ryne Sandberg
Johnny Bench
Whitey Ford
Willie Mays
Mike Schmidt
Bert Blyleven
Bob Gibson
Paul Molitor
Red Schoendienst (who, at 89 years old at the time, must have been by far the oldest, right?)
Wade Boggs
Pat Gillick
Joe Morgan
Tom Seaver
George Brett
Tony Gwynn
Eddie Murray
Ozzie Smith
Lou Brock
Doug Harvey
Phil Niekro
Bruce Sutter
Jim Bunning
Rickey Henderson
Jim Palmer
Billy Williams
Steve Carlton
Whitey Herzog
Tony Pérez
Dave Winfield
Andre Dawson
Fergie Jenkins
Gaylord Perry
Dennis Eckersley
Al Kaline
Jim Rice

I believe there are currently .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)...and this year's ceremony, of course, will add nobody to that list.

According to the list above, 44 of these 62 showed up last year (the 42 on the list, plus Larkin and Blyleven, who were inducted last year).

FWIW, the 18 who did NOT show up last year, by youngest to oldest, were:

Cal Ripken
Robin Yount
Goose Gossage
Nolan Ryan
Rod Carew
Don Sutton
Yaz
Willie McCovey
Orlando Cepeda
Brooks Robinson
Bill Mazeroski
Hank Aaron
Ernie Banks
Tommy Lasorda
Yogi Berra
Ralph Kiner
Monte Irvin
Bobby Doerr

Five of the six oldest guys still alive didn't go last year, and they are all 85+...it's hard to imagine they wouldn't all have health and age issues in coming to Cooperstown.

Actually, everybody on this list from Yaz on down is at least 72 years old - it's hard for me to get too judgmental about a 70- or 80-something year old guy not flying to the middle of New York state on what always seems to be an oppressively hot and arid weekend in the dog days of summer to sit on a stage and listen to a couple of people give speeches for an hour.

The six people on this list that stand out are the youngest ones - Ripken, Yount, Gossage, Ryan, Carew, and Sutton. Yount and Carew seem like really private guys. Ryan was probably busy with his job with the Rangers. But Ripken? Really? And Gossage runs his mouth off every couple of days, and he doesn't go to the ceremony? Sutton surprised me - he has been very visible on TV since his retirement, and this strikes me as the kind of thing he would enjoy doing...but maybe he, too, was working that weekend.

Looking at this list, I guess a higher percentage of living HOFers showed up last year than I would've predicted. How many of these guys will bother coming this year?
   35. SoSH U at work Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:20 PM (#4407182)
Actually 19 didn't show up (Bert was inducted in 2011, so he was in the original list of 42). Reggie is the other living Hall of Famer no-show, if the list is accurate.

   36. flournoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 10:38 PM (#4407189)
Over the years, Don Sutton has missed a lot of Braves broadcasts on Hall of Fame induction weekend because he was in attendance for the ceremony. I don't know why he didn't go to the ceremony that particular year, but if I were to guess, I'd say he probably had some conflict. Who knows, maybe a family issue or something. Certainly there can be all sorts of good reasons to not go.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:06 PM (#4407202)
Unless it's a friend, teammate or at least somebody played against, is there any particular reason an HoFer would show up for a living induction instead of a dead one? Was Bob Feller excited to see Sutter go in?

Or anybody for that matter. I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that the main difference between a living induction weekend and a non-living induction weekend is that there are a lot more fans of the living dude willing to come to Cooperstown.

Which I know is a "duh" point but it's not "living/dead" it's "popular/unknown". I don't imagine at this point that the VC electing, say, Darrell Evans is really going to make much of a difference.
   38. McCoy Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:11 PM (#4407208)
Kind of hard to opine about the new class when they all played before you and were dead before you were even born.

For the older guys it probably makes no difference. A free trip, a chance to make some money, and meet old friends. For someone like Brett or Sandberg those things probably hold little value. I also can see the living HoF'ers valuing the act of welcoming the new members to the Hall. Without any new alive members that isn't needed this time around.
   39. richallen Posted: April 08, 2013 at 04:29 AM (#4407243)
How do they make money, McCoy?
   40. McCoy Posted: April 08, 2013 at 08:02 AM (#4407253)
autographs
   41. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 08, 2013 at 10:32 AM (#4407340)
I cannot speak for yount but I suspect he hasn't gone to a ceremony since his own induction for one or both of the following reasons:

--yount doesn't go much for such things. he's a low key guy and these types of ceremonies just aren't of much interest. he went to his own more out of courtesy I suspect than wanting the attention. I do know he was glad he was part of a group and everyone seemed focused on brett and ryan

--yount may not have the cash to make the trip. his brother lost a ton of his money some time ago and yount has had to keep working because he was all but broke after that mess
   42. GregD Posted: April 08, 2013 at 10:43 AM (#4407354)
--yount may not have the cash to make the trip. his brother lost a ton of his money some time ago and yount has had to keep working because he was all but broke after that mess
surely with his pension he isn't totally broke? cash poor, I can see, but his pension should be significant, no?
   43. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 08, 2013 at 10:47 AM (#4407361)
greg

uncertain. yount is a guy with simple needs. I cannot imagine he would be doing the cheesy local commercials if he didn't have to
   44. GregD Posted: April 08, 2013 at 10:56 AM (#4407366)
Harveys, I'm sure you're right. Also, it looks like he won't receive his pension for 5 more years, so he could well be broke. Egad. His pension should be the max--$185k a year, right?
   45. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 08, 2013 at 10:56 AM (#4407367)
greg

and if you mean down the road then yes his pension should be there. but I am unclear as to when players can start drawing on the pension

and it may be that whatever he is getting is going to pay past items owed

larry really scr8wed up (that's his brother)
   46. GregD Posted: April 08, 2013 at 11:04 AM (#4407378)
62 I think but I could be wrong, HW, and you're right that his debts could hoover it up
   47. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: April 08, 2013 at 11:11 AM (#4407388)
greg

robin is very tight-lipped on the matter so who knows.
   48. McCoy Posted: April 08, 2013 at 11:23 AM (#4407399)
For Yount the age would be 62 but like all pension and retirement plans he could tap into it earlier if he wanted to do that.
   49. winnipegwhip Posted: April 08, 2013 at 11:54 AM (#4407437)
I remember a circa-1980 Saturday Night Live bumper which was a still photograph. It showed one man on stage in the distance with a guitar and one man sitting on a chair watching him. The Don Pardo voiceover announced, "Johnny Cash plays Spandau Prison. Sunday Night on NBC."

I think of that image and imagine that is what this summer's HOF ceremony will be like.

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