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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Hall of Fame Ballot Gathering Machine

HOF % Leaderboard through 138 Full BBWAA Ballots…

93.4 - Alomar
79.7 - Blyleven
66.6 - Larkin
49.2 - J. Morris
47.1 - Raines
40.6 - Bagwell
39.1 - L. Smith
31.9 - Edgar Martinez
26.8 - Trammell
19.6 - McGwire
16.6 - McGriff
13.8 - L.Walker
12.3 - Palmeiro
. 8.7 - D. Murphy
. 5.8 - Mattingly
. 5.1 - D. Parker
. 4.3 - Baines
. 2.9 - K. Brown
. 2.2 - Juan Gone
. 2.2 - John Franco
. 0.7 - Tino
. 0.7 - Olerud (!)
. 0.7 - Surhoff
. 0.7 - Pete Rose (Write-in)


Top Partial Ballot Leaders… (162 Full/Partials)

136 - Alomar
124 - Blyleven

 

And thanks to icho1977 on the Twitter front and Pete L. with updates!

 

Repoz Posted: December 29, 2010 at 01:34 AM | 301 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history, sabermetrics, steroids

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   101. icho1977 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 01:18 AM (#3721080)
The Last Year, Repoz have 72 full Ballots.

2010(72 Ballots) 2011(71 Ballots)

Alomar: 86.1% 95.8%
Blyleven: 83.3% 78.9%
Larkin: 59.7% 71.8%
Morris: 52.8% 52.1%
Raines: 47.2% 52.1%
Martinez: 45.8% 32.4%
Smith: 43.0% 29.6%
McGwire: 34.7% 22.5%
Trammell: 27.8% 29.6%
McGriff: 20.8% 15.5%
   102. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 01, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#3721082)
McGwire: [2009] 34.7% [2010] 22.5%


Repoz has always over-estimated McGwire's support by quite a lot. Repoz's current tally is very close to what McGwire has actually gotten in support his first four years on the ballot (21.9% - 23.7%). I wonder if that's because Repoz's sample is more representative this year or if this suggests that McGwire has lost a big chunk of his support with his admission of steroid use.
   103. Musk21 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:12 AM (#3721147)
Is there somewhere that lists who's votes you already have? Here are some that I found that I didn't see in the comments:

Richard Griffin, Toronto Star - Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Walker, Larkin, Alomar
Tom Deinhart, Rivals(?) via Twitter - Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Smith, Murphy, Baines
Richard Justice, Houston Chronicle - Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Larkin, Alomar, Smith, McGriff, Bagwell
Phil Arvia - Morris, Larkin, Alomar, Smith, Baines, Bagwell, Martinez
Ron Chimelis - Blyleven, Morris, Alomar, Bagwell
Steven Marcus - Morris, Alomar, Bagwell
Marty Noble - Blyleven, Morris, Larkin, Alomar, Parker, McGriff, Martinez, Franco, Gonzalez
Ken Davidoff - Blyleven, Raines, Walker, Larkin, Alomar, Bagwell, Martinez, Brown, McGwire, Trammell
David Lariviere, Forbes - Blyleven, Alomar, Smith
   104. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: January 01, 2011 at 05:13 AM (#3721149)
That is the question, Kiko.

With Palmeiro's tepid support I tend to think that maybe he lost a big chunk of supporters.

Crazy #### going on...

Raffy getting less than 10% is crazy.
   105. Repoz Posted: January 01, 2011 at 06:31 AM (#3721160)
Lunarshutz has a listing up, but it includes Brian Kenny as a voter and some other funky things.

Here are some that I found that I didn't see in the comments:

Yeah, all of them are included except the Noble vote which I still list as a Partial.

You have the Full Noble ballot?
   106. Musk21 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:21 AM (#3721167)
Yeah, on second glance Noble's is a definite partial.
   107. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:25 AM (#3721169)
Yeah, on second glance Noble's is a definite partial.


You show him already voting for 9 guys. There's only room for one more, and if he's down to throwing votes to Franco and Gonzalez you kind of have to think he's done, don't you? (Although how the hell do you vote for Juan Gone and leave off McGwire and Palmeiro and Bagwell?)
   108. Musk21 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:34 AM (#3721171)
   109. Musk21 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:36 AM (#3721172)
You show him already voting for 9 guys. There's only room for one more, and if he's down to throwing votes to Franco and Gonzalez you kind of have to think he's done, don't you? (Although how the hell do you vote for Juan Gone and leave off McGwire and Palmeiro and Bagwell?)


His article has a question mark after a few of those guys making it unclear if he was actually casting a vote for them.
   110. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 01, 2011 at 07:39 AM (#3721175)
His article has a question mark after a few of those guys making it unclear if he was actually casting a vote for them.


Thanks. Although I'm still baffled by my parenthetical question. How the hell do you vote for Juan Gonzalez and not vote for any of Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jeff Bagwell?
   111. MelOtt4 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 10:24 AM (#3721192)
Have any of the full or partial ballots included any new votes for Blyleven?
   112. Baldrick Posted: January 01, 2011 at 12:10 PM (#3721195)
It's surprising Morris hasn't dropped given all the steroid rumors.
   113. icho1977 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3721338)
Welcome 2011, New Ballot: Brian Heyman:http://yankees.lhblogs.com/

One Vote: Roberto Alomar
   114. Pete L. Posted: January 01, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#3721375)
Is Brian Heyman related to Jon Heyman? There is also a Brian Heyman who does a football blog (and used to do a college sports blog) at the New York Times, which has a policy of forbidding their staff from voting for the HoF. He does have a badge (at large, #324, 1998) but if he's the same guy as the Brian Heyman at the Times, I wonder if he actually sent it in.

Beyond that, kind of a dumb ballot. Not because of Alomar's presence, of course, but he mentions that there were some "borderline cases" that he "thought hard about" - Blyleven, Bagwell, and McGriff - before repeating the tired bromide that if you have to think about 'em, they're not Hall of Famers. IMO two of those guys are *better* candidates than Robbie Alomar (or at least his equal), and several more that he lists only in a group of 18 "notables" that deserved a LOT more consideration than he gave them (other than to dismiss anybody "associated with steroids" - whatever that means - because of the character & integrity clause).
   115. icho1977 Posted: January 01, 2011 at 09:26 PM (#3721381)
Oh My Gad, chicago tribune 7 ballots:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-110101-mlb-hall-votes-gallery,0,6428511.storygallery

Bagwell: 0 Votes
Palmeiro: 0 Votes
   116.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 01, 2011 at 09:48 PM (#3721388)

Paul Sullivan's ballot

Roberto Alomar

Harold Baines

Lee Smith

Tim Raines


That is the worst anything I have ever anything'ed.
   117. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 01, 2011 at 09:48 PM (#3721390)
Oh My Gad, chicago tribune 7 ballots:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-110101-mlb-hall-votes-gallery,0,6428511.storygallery

Bagwell: 0 Votes
Palmeiro: 0 Votes


Full tally from the 7:

7 - Alomar
5 - Blyleven
5 - Raines
4 - Larkin
4 - L. Smith
4 - Morris
2 - Trammell
2 - L. Walker
2 - Mattingly
1 - Baines (but not from Phil Rogers, who finally decided to drop him)
1 - E. Martinez
1 - D. Parker
0 - everyone else (Bagwell, McGriff, Palmeiro, D. Murphy, K. Brown, Juan Gone, Franco, et al).
   118. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 01, 2011 at 09:54 PM (#3721392)
5 - Raines


My recollection from past Trib HOF votes is that this is a big improvement for Raines. They've always been pretty big homers - they've long had a huge love affair with Harold Baines, they were huge advocates of Dawson - and I remember being a little bit disappointed that they were extremely dismissive of Tim Raines when he first showed up on the ballots. I get that his best years were in Montreal before he came to the Windy City, but, of course, the same is true of Andre Dawson (although good luck trying to get anybody in Chicago sports to understand or admit that about Dawson).

My recollection is also that the Trib guys have always been pretty strong anti-steroids guys so the lack of votes for McGwire, Palmeiro, and Brown don't surprise me that much.
   119. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:31 PM (#3721420)
Yeah, I don't think Blyleven is making it.
   120.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:48 PM (#3721428)
I have thrown together a little application for searching on online history. You can use it to pull up voters by player, players by voter, players and voters by year, etc.

Here is the link: BallotMachine. The domain name...don't ask.

I have entered most of the data for 2011 and 2010 based on the Lunarschultz spreadsheet as well as this thread. However I am a bit behind on some of the new 2011 votes so I will get those in shortly. Will also try to get 2009 up later if anyone expresses any interest.

Let me know if you have some feedback.

Thanks
   121. SoSH U at work Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:52 PM (#3721433)
Yeah, I don't think Blyleven is making it.


If you're right, and I personally think that since he'll either make it by a few votes or misses by the same, any prediction is just a WAG, it's bad news for Bert and equally bad news for Morris. If Bert's still on the ballot in 2012, I'd say Jack has virtually no chance of BBWAA induction.
   122. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 01, 2011 at 11:55 PM (#3721434)
Here is the link: BallotMachine. The domain name...don't ask.

Great. Thanks. Oh - and to relate to post #118 - two of the Chicago Seven voted for Raines this year who didn't last year: Greenstein & Hersh.
   123. Repoz Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:07 AM (#3721440)
Yeah, I don't think Blyleven is making it.

Haven't seen many voters from Minn. (read somewhere that Minn got 2 new voters this year) or Pitt. chime in yet. So there's that and the usually solid ESPN block.
   124.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:23 AM (#3721447)
It seems kind of odd that everyone has seemingly come to this consensus that Robbie Alomar is (by far?) the best player on the ballot. Don't get me wrong, Alomar was excellent, but it just seems kind of odd. I think we could have some great debates about who the best on the ballot is, but I don't really get how he got to be so far ahead of Larkin/Trammell/Raines in the eyes of the voters.
   125. icho1977 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:31 AM (#3721451)
Haven't seen many voters from Minn. (read somewhere that Minn got 2 new voters this year) or Pitt. chime in yet. So there's that and the usually solid ESPN block

New Voters This Year of Minnesota and Anaheim

Dave Campbell (AP.Minneapolis)
Barry Fritz (AP.Minneapolis)
Beth Harris (AP. Anaheim)
Dave Ammenheuser (Riverside Press E. Anaheim)
T.J Simers (Los Angeles Times. Anaheim)
   126. Jick Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:49 AM (#3721460)
There are something like forty guys who publicly voted for Blyleven last year who haven't published ballots yet this year. (Thanks to Ryan JL for all that information.) I think he's going to make it.
   127. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:10 AM (#3721476)
Cross-Posted from the Tribune thread:

Why is Phil Hersh still in the BBWAA, let alone get a Hall of Fame ballot? He hasn't written on baseball in decades. His Tribune bio alone reveals:

Olympic sports writer for Chicago Tribune since 1987 and Tribune Company since 2004. Have covered 15 Olympics -- 9 Winter and 6 Summer. Olympic (and soccer World Cup) coverage has taken me all over the world. I have reported from some 50 countries, including Iran. The beat encompasses Olympic politics (including such things as Chicago's failed bid for the 2016 Summer Games). My favorite part of the job: using sport as a way to write about the culture of a country or an athlete. I also do various non-Olympic-related features.



The same could be asked of Teddy Greenstein, who was the Cubs beat reporter before Paul Sullivan, but has been covering golf and college sports since 2003. His bio recites:

College football is my day job. I cover Northwestern and write about the Big Ten, especially if the word "expansion" is involved. I also follow Northwestern hoops, assist K.C. Johnson on the Bulls beat and cover golf. I write the "18 holes with ... " column, in which I describe the experience of playing a top course with a celebrity. (Feel free to hate me.) I've also reported from the Masters, U.S. Open, PGA Championship and BMW Championship for two years running.


Though the BBWAA has done a better job in recent years of welcoming in the Rob Neyers of the world, I think they would also be better served by some kind of procedure that monitors membership to ensure that they remain active in the game.
   128.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:13 AM (#3721477)
Voted BB last year, possibly not yet accounted for this year:

Mel Antonen
Mike Bauman
Earl Bloom
Howard Bryant
Pat Caputo
Bill Conlin
Dan Coughlin
Jerry Crasnick
Jack Curry
Gordon Edes
Jeff Fletcher
Peter Gammons
Ken Gurnick
Chris Haft
Tom Haudricourt
Lynn Henning
John Hickey
Tom Kaegan
Bill Kennedy
Tim Kurkijan
Larry LaRue
Seth Livingstone
Sean McClelland
Hal McCoy
Joe McGrath
Bill Madden
Bob Markus
Bernie Miklasz
Scott Miller
Kevin Modesti
Mike Nadal
Bob Nightengale
Drew Olsen
Tom Pedulla
John Perotto
Mike Peticca
Ed Price
Brendan Roberts
TJ Quinn
Jeff Shultz
Mike Shalin
Tom Singer
Lyle Spencer
Jayson Stark
Jim Street
Charley Waters
   129. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:14 AM (#3721478)
There are something like forty guys who publicly voted for Blyleven last year who haven't published ballots yet this year. (Thanks to Ryan JL for all that information.) I think he's going to make it.
Do we have a list of voters who publicly didn't vote for Blyleven last year who voted for him this year? We already know he's not getting one vote he had last year.
   130. Swedish Chef Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#3721483)
We already know he's not getting one vote he had last year.

There's the guy who voted for just Alomar and Blyleven who was won over by the shutouts.
   131.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3721487)

Though the BBWAA has done a better job in recent years of welcoming in the Rob Neyers of the world, I think they would also be better served by some kind of procedure that monitors membership to ensure that they remain active in the game.


I've mentioned before that I think this is by far the biggest problem with this whole process. There are probably 100 voters who are like "Weell,, I haven't paid much attention to baseball in 20 years, but I recognize this guy's name...and this guy. And I heard from my buddies not to vote for these guys, oohh Don Mattingly I remember him."

At least that's how it seems.

Do we have a list of voters who publicly didn't vote for Blyleven last year who voted for him this year? We already know he's not getting one vote he had last year.


I don't think we've identified any yet.
   132.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 01:34 AM (#3721502)

There's the guy who voted for just Alomar and Blyleven who was won over by the shutouts.


Ah, I don't know if Repoz had his 2010 ballot though.

Ron Chimelis voted for Bert and he didn't have a vote last year, so that's one.
   133. Pete L. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 02:04 AM (#3721514)
@ 128, Ryan: On quick glance, I can tell you that the following of your list have voted and have been included in Repoz's count, with a yes (Y) or no (N) on whether they voted for Bert:

Mel Antonen (Y), Bill Conlin (Y), Jack Curry (Y), Jeff Fletcher (Y), Seth Livingstone (N), Bob Nightengale (Y), Tom Keegan (Y), Tom Pedulla (Y).

The way I am tracking these, it would be easy for me to miss one or two, so this is no be-all, end-all list. If I missed one, Icho1977 or Repoz will probably correct me, but most of those you listed haven't checked in yet.

Great online way to check is Icho's Twitter page (lists ballots, but no links)

http://twitter.com/icho1977
   134.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 02:55 AM (#3721537)
Thanks Pete.

Icho, I am fairly certain Jack Curry voted for Edgar; although I can't find it now. On your twitter you have him without. Can you double-check?
   135. Pete L. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 03:27 AM (#3721548)
Ryan, Curry did vote for Edgar, announced by tweet, and two follow-up tweets explained his support for Edgar: He pointed out that Edgar “[h]it .312 with .418 OBP and had almost 2300 hits. DH is a position. More than half of Molitor's hits came as a DH. … You can't penalize Edgar for being DH. If there wasn't a DH, he would have played the field. Not well, but he would have played.”
   136. icho1977 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:28 AM (#3721691)
Good Morning Friends
We started early again, three days and approaching the day Blyleven and Alomar. Larkin and Morris find 60 percent by the minimum, so they're with options for 2012 A gift for this new day and especially with a new voter.

John Tomase: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20110102call_of_the_hall/srvc=sports&position=also

ALOMAR, LARKIN, BAGWELL, MORRIS, TRAMMELL AND BLYLEVEN.
   137. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 02, 2011 at 12:05 PM (#3721698)
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20110102call_of_the_hall/srvc=sports&position=also

The first of two comments on Tomase's picks:

orionsam
I just want to tell you how excited I am. After 9 days on the "Hypersonic Weight Loss" I lost 7lbs!!


Yeah, but you can't count the weight you lost during the postseason.
   138. Repoz Posted: January 02, 2011 at 03:04 PM (#3721711)
John McGrath moves from Partial to Full Ballot...and Olerud's first.

I want Bert Blyleven elected to the baseball Hall of Fame after last year’s photo finish – the fifth-most prolific strikeout pitcher of all-time received 400 votes, and needed 405 – so the argument finally can turn from Blyleven’s worthiness for enshrinement to Barry Larkin’s worthiness for enshrinement.

(I checked both names on my ballot. I also voted for Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell and John Olerud.)
   139. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 03:34 PM (#3721717)
McGrath didn't vote for Larkin?
   140. Repoz Posted: January 02, 2011 at 03:45 PM (#3721723)
McGrath didn't vote for Larkin?

He did...the "I checked both names on my ballot" bit includes Larkin with Blyleven. Unless he's as confused as Chass.
   141. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 02, 2011 at 03:52 PM (#3721727)
Yeah, I don't think Blyleven is making it.
Over the last few years, when the Repoz vote total conflicts with typical HoF voting trends, the trends have won out. I'm still entirely convinced that Blyleven will make it - he'd be the first ever to get that close and not be inducted the next year. A non-representative sample, showing a borderline result, is hardly enough to reject the null hypothesis that HoF voting will progress the way it always does.
   142. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 02, 2011 at 03:57 PM (#3721729)
My bad Repoz - too early to read properly, it appears.
   143. John DiFool2 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#3721759)
My quibble with Bert's chances this year concern the voting structure; with more viable candidates than in recent memory, Bert is undoubtedly getting crowded out on some ballots-not very many but when you're that close to the magical 75% barrier they can make a difference. Note how the support of Smitty, Mattingly, Parker, and even McGriff appear to be cratering-purely a result of too many better candidates and not enough voting slots.

If Bert waiting one more year (he'd be a mortal lock in 2012) is the price we pay to ensure Morris doesn't get in, I'll drink to that. If Brown is bounced and Bert gets in this year, Morris becomes the only remotely viable starting pitcher on the 2012 ballot.
   144. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:26 PM (#3721777)
I'm still entirely convinced that Blyleven will make it - he'd be the first ever to get that close and not be inducted the next year.

I agree he'll go in, but there is one time a guy got over 70% and didn't go in the next year: Jim Bunning.

He got 74% in 1988. Then, in 1989, Gaylord Perry, and Fergie Jenkins, and Jim Kaat made the ballot (plus Bench and Yaz). Suddenly, the highest rated holdover was only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on the ballot (and the best pitcher was only scene seen as the third best player). He went down. And because Perry/Jenkins/Kaat were all held over onto the 1990 ballot (only Bench and Yaz went in 1989), they were all able to continue keeping Bunning's vote down in 1990 - as was Jim Palmer, who debuted that year. Bunning ran out of time and went to the VC.

So yeah, there is a precedent for Blyleven not getting in, but it doesn't fit the 2011 ballot. There aren't and slew of candidates appearing on the ballot who the voters clearly support. There aren't a number of pitchers arriving with career numbers that dwarf Blyleven.

My quibble with Bert's chances this year concern the voting structure; with more viable candidates than in recent memory, Bert is undoubtedly getting crowded out on some ballot

There were only 5.67 names/ballot last year. I'd be amazed if it's even over 6/ballot this year. Some guys get crowded off - Poz and Caple have noted their ballots are overflowing. But when you have more than 10 candidates you like, the guy on the verge is election is rarely to one you squeeze off.
   145. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: January 02, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#3721785)
If Bert waiting one more year (he'd be a mortal lock in 2012) is the price we pay to ensure Morris doesn't get in, I'll drink to that. If Brown is bounced and Bert gets in this year, Morris becomes the only remotely viable starting pitcher on the 2012 ballot.

If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullshit, I suppose.
   146. hoyas68 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#3721896)
How things would have been different if Alomar and BB would have gotten a handfull more votes last year.
Larkin would be a lock for this year. Morris, Raines, Bagwell, and possibly Lee Smith would have all gone over the 60% mark. Thus almost assuring them a spot in cooperstown in the future. Not to mention Trammell would have had tremendous gain to give his candacey some momentum. Jim Rice getting in cleared the way for Dawson. Larken getting in would clear the way for Trammell.
   147. The District Attorney Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:17 PM (#3721905)
Sadly, I think it's clear that Trammell's problem goes well beyond Larkin. Trammell was on the ballot for eight years before Larkin showed up, and never got more than 18.2%. In fact, Trammell hit his highest point (22.4%) last year when Larkin debuted.

Given that he doesn't have all the time in the world, he's still not even close and the ballot is about to go cuckoo nuts... I don't think you can realistically hope for Trammell to be elected by the BBWAA. (Which doesn't mean stop trying, of course.)
   148.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#3721910)
Trammell does seem to be doing a bit better. Got new votes from Klapisch, Rogers, a few others. I don't think Repoz has had him over 30% before.

That said,
   149. hoyas68 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:35 PM (#3721919)
Look what happened to Sutter, Gossage after Eck waltzed in. They went from afterthought to Hofers. Maybe Trammell will get the boost needed to get in the discussion when Larkin gets in. It is amazing how candadites gain traction. I think that all of the sabermetric bashing Rice got actually brought him the needed attention to get in. As the saying goes bad press is still press. Parker and Murphy probably wish they were the ones bashed.
   150. The District Attorney Posted: January 02, 2011 at 09:50 PM (#3721932)
The year before Eckersley was elected, Sutter was at 53.3%, and Gossage was at 42.1%. The year before Rice was elected, Dawson was at 65.9%. The year before Larkin went on the ballot, Trammell was at 17.4%. It is really not a comparable situation.

Sutter, Gossage and Dawson also didn't have to deal with a ballot that might, in a couple years, look like: Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Kent, Maddux, E. Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Mussina, Palmeiro, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Sosa, F. Thomas, B. Williams, L. Walker
   151. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 02, 2011 at 10:04 PM (#3721943)
How things would have been different if Alomar and BB would have gotten a handfull more votes last year.
Larkin would be a lock for this year.


If Blyleven and ALomar both snuck in last year, Larkin would NOT be a lock for this year. He'd have a slight chance at best. In the last half-century, the biggest leap anyone took in an induction year was 57%. IIRC, it was Ralph Kiner who jumped from 57% to over 75%. Larkin was around/barely over 50%. You can say he'd have a shot, but that ain't a lock. If Alomar & Blyleven got in last year, odds are no one goes in this year.

Morris, Raines, Bagwell, and possibly Lee Smith would have all gone over the 60% mark. Thus almost assuring them a spot in cooperstown in the future.

Raines just broke 30% last year. People just over 30% don't leap to 60%. Morris is the only one of those who'd break 60% if Blylven & Alomar went in last year. Bagwell maybe. Smith an outside chance - he's been treading water since hitting the ballot.

Not to mention Trammell would have had tremendous gain to give his candacey some momentum.

Trammell finally gained some momentum last year. His 22% was his best ever. He'd been stuck between 14 and 18% before then. The BBWAA will never put him in, though. Hopefully he'll rise up enough the next year or two to gain visibilty for the VC. (The VC historically elects two types of candidates: guys who did well in BBWAA voting but not well enough, and random induction theater).

Look what happened to Sutter, Gossage after Eck waltzed in. They went from afterthought to Hofers. Maybe Trammell will get the boost needed to get in the discussion when Larkin gets in.

Eck went in 2004. Sutter had been over 50% in 2002 and 2003. He nearly broke 60% in 2004. That ain't after-thought-dom. He was already on the upswing, having worked his vote up from the 20s% in his early years on the ballot. Gossage you have a better point as his big move came in 2005, right after Eck went in. That said, he was milling around 40% before then. Trammell just broke 20%. Plus Trammell's already in his 10th year. . . Or, largely the same point Disrict Attorney made.
   152. icho1977 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 10:36 PM (#3721971)
According to count my of the ballots of the Hall of Fame, to be exact are 76, new voters in 2011 and old writers, Tim Raines has won 9 new votes. This percentage could be increased according to the ballots are coming.

Tim Raines (9): Hersh, T.R. Sullivan, J.Heyman, Ingraham, Krieger, Abraham, B.Bloom, Livingstone and Greentein.

Barry Larkin (8): T.R. Sullivan, Tomase, Krieger, Abraham, Albee, Dodd, Conlin and Rogers.

Roberto Alomar (6): Chimelis, Krieger, Abraham, Pedulla, Tomase and Kennedy.

Jack Morris (6): Chimelis, T.R.Sullivan, Krieger, Pedulla, Van Dick and Tomase.

Alan Trammell (6): Krieger, Abraham, Klapish, Dodd, Telander and Tomase.

Bert Blyleven (5): Chimelis, Abraham, Albee, Kreidler and Tomase.
   153.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 10:40 PM (#3721973)
Think I have all those.

Here's my link for Tim Raines I have him at 39/78 so far. Am I missing any?
   154. icho1977 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 11:19 PM (#3721989)
Ryan JL:


Pete Abe and Peter Abraham are the same. You need the votes of Jeff Fletcher and Larry Stone, both voted for Raines.
   155. icho1977 Posted: January 02, 2011 at 11:19 PM (#3721990)
   156.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 02, 2011 at 11:25 PM (#3721995)
Aha, thank you very much.
   157. Kruger23 Posted: January 03, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#3722018)
Bill Kennedy--Trenton Times ballot: mcgwire, palmeiro, alomar, blyleven, murphy

http://www.nj.com/sports/times/index.ssf?/base/sports-7/1293950765277220.xml&coll=5
   158. hoyas68 Posted: January 03, 2011 at 03:45 AM (#3722124)
If Blyleven and ALomar both snuck in last year, Larkin would NOT be a lock for this year. He'd have a slight chance at best. In the last half-century, the biggest leap anyone took in an induction year was 57%. IIRC, it was Ralph Kiner who jumped from 57% to over 75%. Larkin was around/barely over 50%. You can say he'd have a shot, but that ain't a lock. If Alomar & Blyleven got in last year, odds are no one goes in this year.

Maybe lock was to strong but I think that Larkin would have squeaked in. All of the Blyleven,Alomar attention would have shifted to him. What are the stats on the highest vote total player not elected getting in the following year. It has got to be high.

How was Grich not included in this years ballot for the veterans vote?
   159. SoSH U at work Posted: January 03, 2011 at 04:05 AM (#3722134)
How was Grich not included in this years ballot for the veterans vote?


A screening committee put together the list of candidates for consideration. That was where Grich got screwed (again).
   160. hoyas68 Posted: January 03, 2011 at 04:15 AM (#3722140)
Thanks

I guess Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker got screwed again as well.

Hopefull for Louis Tiant next go around but I am sure Santo (and he deserves it) will get the nod. Cant see the vets putting in 2. Tony Oliva and Vida pinson might get a few supporters as well. But like this vet vote they will only take away from each other. Maybe after Santo gets in another will get a chacce.
   161. SoSH U at work Posted: January 03, 2011 at 04:34 AM (#3722149)
I guess Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker got screwed again as well.


Nope, while they obviously fit the time frame for the "Expansion Era - 1973-present", they won't be eligible until they are technically no longer under the BBWAA's voting period. So even though they're no longer on the BBWAA ballot, they don't become eligible for any Veteran's Committee vote until they've been retired 21 years.
   162. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:00 AM (#3722159)
Maybe lock was to strong but I think that Larkin would have squeaked in. All of the Blyleven,Alomar attention would have shifted to him. What are the stats on the highest vote total player not elected getting in the following year. It has got to be high.

Looking it up ... .


In the last 44 elections -- WAIT? Why last 44? Eh, if you go back further you get a bunch of irregularities that tell us nothing about things. Every-other-yera elections, Run-offs. Every-third-year elections. No 15 year time limit. Let's look at modern-ish elections.

Anyway, all elections have a top backlogger. Here's what happened to the top backlogger from the last 44 elections:

- On one occassion he fell off due to time limit (Nellie Fox)

- One we don't know yet, because it's Roberto ALomar and we haven't gotten the election results back yet. That said, he'll go in.

- 21 won election. WILL be 22 with Alomar on Wednesday.

- 21 DIDN'T win election the next time.

So it's about half. Then again, all but one earned eventual election via the BBWAA or VC. Gil Hodges, top backlogger in 1976, never got the call. Well, and Alomar. For now.

Guys who were twice top backlogger without getting elected the next year: Ralph Kiner (then got election on his last year on the ballot), Don Drysdale (BBWAA elected him in eventually), Jim Bunning (VC pick), Phil Niekro (BBWAA electee, eventually), Orlando Cepeda (VC guy), and Jim Rice (BBWAA in his last year, just like Kiner).

Others who were top backlogger without going in the next year: Red Ruffing, Robin Roberts, Enos Slaughter, Gaylord Perry, Tony Perez, Bruce Sutter, and Andre Dawson.
   163.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:14 AM (#3722168)

A screening committee put together the list of candidates for consideration. That was where Grich got screwed (again).


This is the most insane thing I have read this year.
   164. Rich Lederer Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:17 AM (#3722169)
Re #162: Bert Blyleven, not Roberto Alomar, is the top backlogger from last year. Blyleven received 400 votes (74.2% of the total). Alomar received 397 (73.7%).
   165. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:18 AM (#3722170)
I'm guessing Alomar and Blyleven both make it this year. Larkin next year with Bagwell making a big jump up, possibly to the top of the backlog for the 2013 election. Bagwell and Biggio will appear on the same ballot.
   166. SoSH U at work Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:26 AM (#3722171)
This is the most insane thing I have read this year.


Yes, Grich was far and away the most qualified candidate from the time period, but ended up on the outside while Al Oliver and Vida Blue, among others, made the cut was absurd.
   167. icho1977 Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:36 AM (#3722173)
I think that this year Blyleven and Alomar into the Hall of Fame, and Barry Larkin gives the necessary jump reaching 63% votes, leaving the possibility for that in 2012 is also elevated. I am not sure is going to happen with Jack Morris, for me is an enigma, with 52 percent last year, this year I think that reaches the 58 percent, but the question I ask myself, is that percentage vote found in 2012. This is a logical reason since in 2013, Biggio and Piazza insurance will do so and if jack Morris finishing Hall of 2012 with a rate of 70 percent, then accompany those listed above. However, it is important to see percentage gets Jeff Bagwell to determine their possible choice.
   168. LargeBill Posted: January 03, 2011 at 05:43 AM (#3722178)
164. Rich Lederer Posted: January 02, 2011 at 11:17 PM (#3722169)
Re #162: Bert Blyleven, not Roberto Alomar, is the top backlogger from last year. Blyleven received 400 votes (74.2% of the total). Alomar received 397 (73.7%).


Rich,

Correct that Bert was the leading returning vote getter from last year. I think early returns are more friendly trend-wise for Alomar as last year was his first year and some folks don't vote for first year of eligible players and due to the spitting thing. Second time on ballot he is getting a decent boost. I hope Blyleven finally crosses the threshold, but have no expectations that he will be the leading vote getter. My best guess is he either makes it by less than fifteen votes or misses by one or two. Problem is people have staked out their position on Blyleven whereas very few have boxed themselves into a corner about Alomar.
   169. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 03, 2011 at 07:36 AM (#3722210)
Rich - good catch. Thanks.

If anyone's interested, my annual prediction piece just went up:
Wednesday's Cooperstown results today
   170. MelOtt4 Posted: January 03, 2011 at 08:27 AM (#3722219)
This is a logical reason since in 2013, Biggio and Piazza insurance will do so and if jack Morris finishing Hall of 2012 with a rate of 70 percent,

What about the Schilling factor.Does he take enough votes away from Morris to keep in out? Because it would take a small miracle for him to get in 2014.
   171. icho1977 Posted: January 03, 2011 at 10:19 PM (#3722510)
The Larry Larue Hall of Fame Ballot:http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2011/01/03/one-hof-ballot-lots-of-questions/

Nine Votes: one more for Larkin and Bagwell.
   172. Austin Posted: January 03, 2011 at 11:45 PM (#3722579)
I remain shocked that Brown is around the 5% borderline. It just seems to me like anyone who compiled a 3.28 career ERA (backed up by a 3.33 FIP) while playing through basically the entirety of the steroid era would at least get a second look from the voters. Speaking as someone who was not following baseball while he pitched, even his peak of 1996-2001 (or 2003) looks pretty darned good, although perhaps there was some sense that he was doing it with smoke and mirrors, or maybe people just didn't want to revere him as a great pitcher when his personality was so off-putting. At any rate, seeing a pitcher with 77 career fWAR (which really should be in "virtual lock" territory) possibly fall off of the ballot is quite dismaying to me, as it probably is to the majority of posters here.
   173. hoyas68 Posted: January 04, 2011 at 01:07 AM (#3722646)
Agreed on Brown. He deserves to stick around a few years on ballot. His crap outing in Game 7 for the yanks against Sox probably not helping his cause. If Shillings Bloddy sox gets him in K brown not being able to keep the curse alive probably keeps him out of consideration. (I am joking of course but his Yankee days were a flop. Appering like a clown in Joe Torrees tell all book cant help him either.)
   174. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#3722653)
On Brown - the Mitchell Report had good evidence Brown used steroids. From Brown's wikipedia page
The Mitchell Report named Brown as one of a group of Los Angeles Dodgers implicated in steroid use. The report documents allegations by Kirk Radomski that he sold Brown human growth hormone and Deca-Durabolin over a period of two or three years beginning in either 2000 or 2001. Radomski claims he was introduced to Brown by Paul Lo Duca. Radomski's claims were supported by an Express Mail receipt dated June 7, 2004, addressed to Brown. The report also contains notes from a meeting of Dodgers executives in 2003 during which they question the medication Brown takes and include a note stating "Steroids speculated by GM". Brown declined to meet with the Mitchell investigators.[5]
I'm not saying that this ought to affect Brown's vote, but I think that the Brown's vote is best understood in the context of the BBWAA policy on steroids. Brown is somewhat underrated by the writers, but I think that even if he were properly rated for his performance, he'd be in danger of falling off the ballot.
   175. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3722654)
Brown is also strongly linked to steroids. And outside his peak has not a lot of value. And he was apparently a jerk and had the gall to sign a big, long contract (which actually turned out not so bad but was repeatedly ridiculted from day one).

So lots for the voters to not like and the only thing he has going for him is that he was a damn, good pitcher. Who'd think that might be enough to get you in? :-)

In fairness, I didn't put him on my ballot either. I put him behind Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, Glavine, Mussina, Smoltz and Schilling although it's quite close after the big 4. I decided that even in today's game, 3200 IP isn't that impressive and he doesn't have any of the extra stuff you might look for. If I had a real vote, I'd have probably put him on to help keep him on the ballot.
   176. John DiFool2 Posted: January 04, 2011 at 02:39 AM (#3722696)
I want to discuss Alomar's D; since he's seen as such a deserving mortal lock, there's been virtually no discussion about him this year. (A) For those who watched him in person a lot, where do you think his weaknesses as a defender lay? Was his positioning bad or something? (B) What do any of the hard data have to say about it? Was he slow to his right, and does this show up on the fielding charts? Did he basically field the same % of ground balls in his zone as an average 2B would have? He had that rep of course of making the spectacular play, but most of the data I've seen suggests that a fair amount of fieldable balls must have trickled through his zone.
   177. Pete L. Posted: January 04, 2011 at 03:42 AM (#3722747)
@177, icho: Glad you got that - I saw it this AM and meant to post it here.
   178. Pete L. Posted: January 04, 2011 at 03:51 AM (#3722755)
John DiFool2: I wondered about this, too, mostly because the view of Alomar's D within the TZ component of rWAR is so different from common descriptions of him as an excellent fielder (and 10 GG's). I didn't see him play every day (or any more than when he came through Seattle, and on highlights, really) so I can't really answer your question. I'm not sure I trust defensive statistics *that* much to discount Alomar as much as those stats indicate he has been, though.

I'd venture a guess that this isn't discussed much because, even after TZ/Rfield discounts his defense within WAR, he's still pretty comfortably above the bar for a Hall of Fame career, so it's not worth discussing as much as it would be if he were more borderline....
   179. Juan V Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:02 AM (#3722763)
Yes, Grich was far and away the most qualified candidate from the time period, but ended up on the outside while Al Oliver and Vida Blue, among others, made the cut was absurd.


We need to get some statnerd thought into the VC. Vida Blue has some status in the "common" history of baseball, while I literally never heard the name Bobby Grich until I got into sabermetrics.
   180. rawagman Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3722999)
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus put up his ballot today.
1) Roberto Alomar, 2) Jeff Bagwell, 3) Bert Blyleven, 4) Barry Larkin, 5) Edgar Martinez, 6) Rafael Palmeiro, 7) Tim Raines and 8) Larry walker
   181. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#3723004)
There's a lot of good stuff on that ballot, which sort of just makes its weirdnesses weirder.

1) Palmeiro but not McGwire? That just makes no sense.
2) All the classic underrated all-around players we expect - Walker, Larkin, Raines, Bagwell - but no Trammell?
   182. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3723011)
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus put up his ballot today.

He doesn't have an actual ballot, does he?
   183. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:37 PM (#3723019)
Yes, he does. Perrotto was a newspaper guy for years, hired by BP so they'd have a news / beat guy.
   184. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:37 PM (#3723020)
He doesn't have an actual ballot, does he?
Yes.
   185. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3723025)
Huh. Shows what I know.
   186. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:47 PM (#3723031)
We need to get some statnerd thought into the VC. Vida Blue has some status in the "common" history of baseball, while I literally never heard the name Bobby Grich until I got into sabermetrics.

It wouldn't surprise me if 99.9999% of the casual fans in the 70's could talk about Vida Blue for an hour, but if you mentioned Bobby Grich, you'd better hope they were from Baltimore or (later) Southern California if you wanted to get more than a blank stare. It's just a far more extreme version of the Morris-Blyleven split.
   187. lar @ wezen-ball Posted: January 04, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3723127)
Sorry if I missed this earlier in the thread, but how many ballots do we usually have by this point, Repoz? Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but it seems like there's usually more than 87/121 by the day before the results are announced...

Oh, and "Lenny Harris for HOF!"
   188. hoyas68 Posted: January 04, 2011 at 06:46 PM (#3723146)
We need to get some statnerd thought into the VC. Vida Blue has some status in the "common" history of baseball, while I literally never heard the name Bobby Grich until I got into sabermetrics.

It wouldn't surprise me if 99.9999% of the casual fans in the 70's could talk about Vida Blue for an hour, but if you mentioned Bobby Grich, you'd better hope they were from Baltimore or (later) Southern California if you wanted to get more than a blank stare. It's just a far more extreme version of the Morris-Blyleven split.


I disagree Grich a 6 time allstar 4 gold gloves in a row. HR title.If you talk to a fan from the 70s and they dont remember Grich than they are clueless.
   189. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 04, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3723148)
Lar,

I know Repoz is waiting on both the ESPN.com & MLB.com motherlodes. Those places used to release votes earlier.
   190. Ron Johnson Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:12 PM (#3723176)
Closing Bold

#178 As I've mentioned, Alomar didn't do particularly well in DA (the best PBP metric available from his day)

Basically average in range (with one terrible year) and slightly below average at starting the DP.
   191. Musk21 Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:28 PM (#3723189)
Garry Howard - Sporting News

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2010-12/hof-2011/story/why-i-voted-for-palmeiro-and-alomar-for-the-baseball-hall-of-fame

Palmeiro, Alomar, McGwire, Bagwell, Blyleven, Smith, McGriff, Mattingly
   192. icho1977 Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:29 PM (#3723191)
New vote: Sporting News Editor in Chief Garry D. Howard.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2010-12/hof-2011/story/why-i-voted-for-palmeiro-and-alomar-for-the-baseball-hall-of-fame.

OHHHHH One Vote Palmerio and Mcgwire, others.
   193. Mark Armour Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:32 PM (#3723195)
I know Repoz is waiting on both the ESPN.com & MLB.com motherlodes. Those places used to release votes earlier.


ESPN's votes are up. Seems like they reflect the current trend.

Best ballot, Barry Stanton: Morris, Mattingly, Surhoff.
   194. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3723199)
Test
test
   195. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:36 PM (#3723201)
</b>test test2nothing? </b></b>nothing? something?no?

EDIT: yay!
   196. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#3723209)
Out of 18 ESPN writers' ballots:

17 Alomar
14 Blyleven
10 Larkin
10 Morris
9 Smith
8 Bagwell
8 Raines
8 Edgar
7 McGwire
4 Palmeiro
4 Trammell
2 McGriff
1 Tino Martinez
1 Mattingly
1 Murphy
1 Parker
1 BJ Surhoff
1 Walker
   197. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:48 PM (#3723218)
So, Tino Martinez and B.J. Surhoff got more votes from ESPN guys than Kevin Brown!! Wow! It's like he killed a guy or something.
   198. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:52 PM (#3723224)
Tino, Surhoff and Mattingly all got 1 vote from Barry Stanton. Seems like a waste of a ballot.
   199. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:54 PM (#3723226)
The full Barry Stanton ballot appears to be Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Tino Martinez, BJ Surhoff.

There are no words.
   200. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#3723237)
The full Barry Stanton ballot appears to be Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Tino Martinez, BJ Surhoff.


My initial guess was that the Surhoff vote was just a bone thrown to a local kid (Stanton worked for years at the Journal News in Westchester, where Surhoff's from). But looking at the rest of the ballot, it's possible he's simply deranged.
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