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2010(72 Ballots) 2011(71 Ballots)
Alomar: 86.1% 95.8%
Blyleven: 83.3% 78.9%
Larkin: 59.7% 71.8%
Morris: 52.8% 52.1%
Raines: 47.2% 52.1%
Martinez: 45.8% 32.4%
Smith: 43.0% 29.6%
McGwire: 34.7% 22.5%
Trammell: 27.8% 29.6%
McGriff: 20.8% 15.5%
Repoz has always over-estimated McGwire's support by quite a lot. Repoz's current tally is very close to what McGwire has actually gotten in support his first four years on the ballot (21.9% - 23.7%). I wonder if that's because Repoz's sample is more representative this year or if this suggests that McGwire has lost a big chunk of his support with his admission of steroid use.
Richard Griffin, Toronto Star - Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Walker, Larkin, Alomar
Tom Deinhart, Rivals(?) via Twitter - Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Smith, Murphy, Baines
Richard Justice, Houston Chronicle - Blyleven, Morris, Raines, Larkin, Alomar, Smith, McGriff, Bagwell
Phil Arvia - Morris, Larkin, Alomar, Smith, Baines, Bagwell, Martinez
Ron Chimelis - Blyleven, Morris, Alomar, Bagwell
Steven Marcus - Morris, Alomar, Bagwell
Marty Noble - Blyleven, Morris, Larkin, Alomar, Parker, McGriff, Martinez, Franco, Gonzalez
Ken Davidoff - Blyleven, Raines, Walker, Larkin, Alomar, Bagwell, Martinez, Brown, McGwire, Trammell
David Lariviere, Forbes - Blyleven, Alomar, Smith
With Palmeiro's tepid support I tend to think that maybe he lost a big chunk of supporters.
Crazy #### going on...
Raffy getting less than 10% is crazy.
Here are some that I found that I didn't see in the comments:
Yeah, all of them are included except the Noble vote which I still list as a Partial.
You have the Full Noble ballot?
You show him already voting for 9 guys. There's only room for one more, and if he's down to throwing votes to Franco and Gonzalez you kind of have to think he's done, don't you? (Although how the hell do you vote for Juan Gone and leave off McGwire and Palmeiro and Bagwell?)
His article has a question mark after a few of those guys making it unclear if he was actually casting a vote for them.
Thanks. Although I'm still baffled by my parenthetical question. How the hell do you vote for Juan Gonzalez and not vote for any of Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jeff Bagwell?
One Vote: Roberto Alomar
Beyond that, kind of a dumb ballot. Not because of Alomar's presence, of course, but he mentions that there were some "borderline cases" that he "thought hard about" - Blyleven, Bagwell, and McGriff - before repeating the tired bromide that if you have to think about 'em, they're not Hall of Famers. IMO two of those guys are *better* candidates than Robbie Alomar (or at least his equal), and several more that he lists only in a group of 18 "notables" that deserved a LOT more consideration than he gave them (other than to dismiss anybody "associated with steroids" - whatever that means - because of the character & integrity clause).
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-110101-mlb-hall-votes-gallery,0,6428511.storygallery
Bagwell: 0 Votes
Palmeiro: 0 Votes
That is the worst anything I have ever anything'ed.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-110101-mlb-hall-votes-gallery,0,6428511.storygallery
Bagwell: 0 Votes
Palmeiro: 0 Votes
Full tally from the 7:
7 - Alomar
5 - Blyleven
5 - Raines
4 - Larkin
4 - L. Smith
4 - Morris
2 - Trammell
2 - L. Walker
2 - Mattingly
1 - Baines (but not from Phil Rogers, who finally decided to drop him)
1 - E. Martinez
1 - D. Parker
0 - everyone else (Bagwell, McGriff, Palmeiro, D. Murphy, K. Brown, Juan Gone, Franco, et al).
My recollection from past Trib HOF votes is that this is a big improvement for Raines. They've always been pretty big homers - they've long had a huge love affair with Harold Baines, they were huge advocates of Dawson - and I remember being a little bit disappointed that they were extremely dismissive of Tim Raines when he first showed up on the ballots. I get that his best years were in Montreal before he came to the Windy City, but, of course, the same is true of Andre Dawson (although good luck trying to get anybody in Chicago sports to understand or admit that about Dawson).
My recollection is also that the Trib guys have always been pretty strong anti-steroids guys so the lack of votes for McGwire, Palmeiro, and Brown don't surprise me that much.
Here is the link: BallotMachine. The domain name...don't ask.
I have entered most of the data for 2011 and 2010 based on the Lunarschultz spreadsheet as well as this thread. However I am a bit behind on some of the new 2011 votes so I will get those in shortly. Will also try to get 2009 up later if anyone expresses any interest.
Let me know if you have some feedback.
Thanks
If you're right, and I personally think that since he'll either make it by a few votes or misses by the same, any prediction is just a WAG, it's bad news for Bert and equally bad news for Morris. If Bert's still on the ballot in 2012, I'd say Jack has virtually no chance of BBWAA induction.
Great. Thanks. Oh - and to relate to post #118 - two of the Chicago Seven voted for Raines this year who didn't last year: Greenstein & Hersh.
Haven't seen many voters from Minn. (read somewhere that Minn got 2 new voters this year) or Pitt. chime in yet. So there's that and the usually solid ESPN block.
New Voters This Year of Minnesota and Anaheim
Dave Campbell (AP.Minneapolis)
Barry Fritz (AP.Minneapolis)
Beth Harris (AP. Anaheim)
Dave Ammenheuser (Riverside Press E. Anaheim)
T.J Simers (Los Angeles Times. Anaheim)
Why is Phil Hersh still in the BBWAA, let alone get a Hall of Fame ballot? He hasn't written on baseball in decades. His Tribune bio alone reveals:
The same could be asked of Teddy Greenstein, who was the Cubs beat reporter before Paul Sullivan, but has been covering golf and college sports since 2003. His bio recites:
Though the BBWAA has done a better job in recent years of welcoming in the Rob Neyers of the world, I think they would also be better served by some kind of procedure that monitors membership to ensure that they remain active in the game.
Mel Antonen
Mike Bauman
Earl Bloom
Howard Bryant
Pat Caputo
Bill Conlin
Dan Coughlin
Jerry Crasnick
Jack Curry
Gordon Edes
Jeff Fletcher
Peter Gammons
Ken Gurnick
Chris Haft
Tom Haudricourt
Lynn Henning
John Hickey
Tom Kaegan
Bill Kennedy
Tim Kurkijan
Larry LaRue
Seth Livingstone
Sean McClelland
Hal McCoy
Joe McGrath
Bill Madden
Bob Markus
Bernie Miklasz
Scott Miller
Kevin Modesti
Mike Nadal
Bob Nightengale
Drew Olsen
Tom Pedulla
John Perotto
Mike Peticca
Ed Price
Brendan Roberts
TJ Quinn
Jeff Shultz
Mike Shalin
Tom Singer
Lyle Spencer
Jayson Stark
Jim Street
Charley Waters
There's the guy who voted for just Alomar and Blyleven who was won over by the shutouts.
I've mentioned before that I think this is by far the biggest problem with this whole process. There are probably 100 voters who are like "Weell,, I haven't paid much attention to baseball in 20 years, but I recognize this guy's name...and this guy. And I heard from my buddies not to vote for these guys, oohh Don Mattingly I remember him."
At least that's how it seems.
I don't think we've identified any yet.
Ah, I don't know if Repoz had his 2010 ballot though.
Ron Chimelis voted for Bert and he didn't have a vote last year, so that's one.
Mel Antonen (Y), Bill Conlin (Y), Jack Curry (Y), Jeff Fletcher (Y), Seth Livingstone (N), Bob Nightengale (Y), Tom Keegan (Y), Tom Pedulla (Y).
The way I am tracking these, it would be easy for me to miss one or two, so this is no be-all, end-all list. If I missed one, Icho1977 or Repoz will probably correct me, but most of those you listed haven't checked in yet.
Great online way to check is Icho's Twitter page (lists ballots, but no links)
http://twitter.com/icho1977
Icho, I am fairly certain Jack Curry voted for Edgar; although I can't find it now. On your twitter you have him without. Can you double-check?
We started early again, three days and approaching the day Blyleven and Alomar. Larkin and Morris find 60 percent by the minimum, so they're with options for 2012 A gift for this new day and especially with a new voter.
John Tomase: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20110102call_of_the_hall/srvc=sports&position=also
ALOMAR, LARKIN, BAGWELL, MORRIS, TRAMMELL AND BLYLEVEN.
The first of two comments on Tomase's picks:
Yeah, but you can't count the weight you lost during the postseason.
I want Bert Blyleven elected to the baseball Hall of Fame after last year’s photo finish – the fifth-most prolific strikeout pitcher of all-time received 400 votes, and needed 405 – so the argument finally can turn from Blyleven’s worthiness for enshrinement to Barry Larkin’s worthiness for enshrinement.
(I checked both names on my ballot. I also voted for Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell and John Olerud.)
He did...the "I checked both names on my ballot" bit includes Larkin with Blyleven. Unless he's as confused as Chass.
If Bert waiting one more year (he'd be a mortal lock in 2012) is the price we pay to ensure Morris doesn't get in, I'll drink to that. If Brown is bounced and Bert gets in this year, Morris becomes the only remotely viable starting pitcher on the 2012 ballot.
I agree he'll go in, but there is one time a guy got over 70% and didn't go in the next year: Jim Bunning.
He got 74% in 1988. Then, in 1989, Gaylord Perry, and Fergie Jenkins, and Jim Kaat made the ballot (plus Bench and Yaz). Suddenly, the highest rated holdover was only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on the ballot (and the best pitcher was only
sceneseen as the third best player). He went down. And because Perry/Jenkins/Kaat were all held over onto the 1990 ballot (only Bench and Yaz went in 1989), they were all able to continue keeping Bunning's vote down in 1990 - as was Jim Palmer, who debuted that year. Bunning ran out of time and went to the VC.So yeah, there is a precedent for Blyleven not getting in, but it doesn't fit the 2011 ballot. There aren't and slew of candidates appearing on the ballot who the voters clearly support. There aren't a number of pitchers arriving with career numbers that dwarf Blyleven.
My quibble with Bert's chances this year concern the voting structure; with more viable candidates than in recent memory, Bert is undoubtedly getting crowded out on some ballot
There were only 5.67 names/ballot last year. I'd be amazed if it's even over 6/ballot this year. Some guys get crowded off - Poz and Caple have noted their ballots are overflowing. But when you have more than 10 candidates you like, the guy on the verge is election is rarely to one you squeeze off.
If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with ########, I suppose.
Larkin would be a lock for this year. Morris, Raines, Bagwell, and possibly Lee Smith would have all gone over the 60% mark. Thus almost assuring them a spot in cooperstown in the future. Not to mention Trammell would have had tremendous gain to give his candacey some momentum. Jim Rice getting in cleared the way for Dawson. Larken getting in would clear the way for Trammell.
Given that he doesn't have all the time in the world, he's still not even close and the ballot is about to go cuckoo nuts... I don't think you can realistically hope for Trammell to be elected by the BBWAA. (Which doesn't mean stop trying, of course.)
That said,
Sutter, Gossage and Dawson also didn't have to deal with a ballot that might, in a couple years, look like: Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Glavine, Kent, Maddux, E. Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Mussina, Palmeiro, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Sosa, F. Thomas, B. Williams, L. Walker
Larkin would be a lock for this year.
If Blyleven and ALomar both snuck in last year, Larkin would NOT be a lock for this year. He'd have a slight chance at best. In the last half-century, the biggest leap anyone took in an induction year was 57%. IIRC, it was Ralph Kiner who jumped from 57% to over 75%. Larkin was around/barely over 50%. You can say he'd have a shot, but that ain't a lock. If Alomar & Blyleven got in last year, odds are no one goes in this year.
Morris, Raines, Bagwell, and possibly Lee Smith would have all gone over the 60% mark. Thus almost assuring them a spot in cooperstown in the future.
Raines just broke 30% last year. People just over 30% don't leap to 60%. Morris is the only one of those who'd break 60% if Blylven & Alomar went in last year. Bagwell maybe. Smith an outside chance - he's been treading water since hitting the ballot.
Not to mention Trammell would have had tremendous gain to give his candacey some momentum.
Trammell finally gained some momentum last year. His 22% was his best ever. He'd been stuck between 14 and 18% before then. The BBWAA will never put him in, though. Hopefully he'll rise up enough the next year or two to gain visibilty for the VC. (The VC historically elects two types of candidates: guys who did well in BBWAA voting but not well enough, and random induction theater).
Look what happened to Sutter, Gossage after Eck waltzed in. They went from afterthought to Hofers. Maybe Trammell will get the boost needed to get in the discussion when Larkin gets in.
Eck went in 2004. Sutter had been over 50% in 2002 and 2003. He nearly broke 60% in 2004. That ain't after-thought-dom. He was already on the upswing, having worked his vote up from the 20s% in his early years on the ballot. Gossage you have a better point as his big move came in 2005, right after Eck went in. That said, he was milling around 40% before then. Trammell just broke 20%. Plus Trammell's already in his 10th year. . . Or, largely the same point Disrict Attorney made.
Tim Raines (9): Hersh, T.R. Sullivan, J.Heyman, Ingraham, Krieger, Abraham, B.Bloom, Livingstone and Greentein.
Barry Larkin (8): T.R. Sullivan, Tomase, Krieger, Abraham, Albee, Dodd, Conlin and Rogers.
Roberto Alomar (6): Chimelis, Krieger, Abraham, Pedulla, Tomase and Kennedy.
Jack Morris (6): Chimelis, T.R.Sullivan, Krieger, Pedulla, Van Dick and Tomase.
Alan Trammell (6): Krieger, Abraham, Klapish, Dodd, Telander and Tomase.
Bert Blyleven (5): Chimelis, Abraham, Albee, Kreidler and Tomase.
Here's my link for Tim Raines I have him at 39/78 so far. Am I missing any?
Pete Abe and Peter Abraham are the same. You need the votes of Jeff Fletcher and Larry Stone, both voted for Raines.
http://www.nj.com/sports/times/index.ssf?/base/sports-7/1293950765277220.xml&coll=5
Maybe lock was to strong but I think that Larkin would have squeaked in. All of the Blyleven,Alomar attention would have shifted to him. What are the stats on the highest vote total player not elected getting in the following year. It has got to be high.
How was Grich not included in this years ballot for the veterans vote?
A screening committee put together the list of candidates for consideration. That was where Grich got screwed (again).
I guess Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker got screwed again as well.
Hopefull for Louis Tiant next go around but I am sure Santo (and he deserves it) will get the nod. Cant see the vets putting in 2. Tony Oliva and Vida pinson might get a few supporters as well. But like this vet vote they will only take away from each other. Maybe after Santo gets in another will get a chacce.
Nope, while they obviously fit the time frame for the "Expansion Era - 1973-present", they won't be eligible until they are technically no longer under the BBWAA's voting period. So even though they're no longer on the BBWAA ballot, they don't become eligible for any Veteran's Committee vote until they've been retired 21 years.
Looking it up ... .
In the last 44 elections -- WAIT? Why last 44? Eh, if you go back further you get a bunch of irregularities that tell us nothing about things. Every-other-yera elections, Run-offs. Every-third-year elections. No 15 year time limit. Let's look at modern-ish elections.
Anyway, all elections have a top backlogger. Here's what happened to the top backlogger from the last 44 elections:
- On one occassion he fell off due to time limit (Nellie Fox)
- One we don't know yet, because it's Roberto ALomar and we haven't gotten the election results back yet. That said, he'll go in.
- 21 won election. WILL be 22 with Alomar on Wednesday.
- 21 DIDN'T win election the next time.
So it's about half. Then again, all but one earned eventual election via the BBWAA or VC. Gil Hodges, top backlogger in 1976, never got the call. Well, and Alomar. For now.
Guys who were twice top backlogger without getting elected the next year: Ralph Kiner (then got election on his last year on the ballot), Don Drysdale (BBWAA elected him in eventually), Jim Bunning (VC pick), Phil Niekro (BBWAA electee, eventually), Orlando Cepeda (VC guy), and Jim Rice (BBWAA in his last year, just like Kiner).
Others who were top backlogger without going in the next year: Red Ruffing, Robin Roberts, Enos Slaughter, Gaylord Perry, Tony Perez, Bruce Sutter, and Andre Dawson.
This is the most insane thing I have read this year.
Yes, Grich was far and away the most qualified candidate from the time period, but ended up on the outside while Al Oliver and Vida Blue, among others, made the cut was absurd.
Rich,
Correct that Bert was the leading returning vote getter from last year. I think early returns are more friendly trend-wise for Alomar as last year was his first year and some folks don't vote for first year of eligible players and due to the spitting thing. Second time on ballot he is getting a decent boost. I hope Blyleven finally crosses the threshold, but have no expectations that he will be the leading vote getter. My best guess is he either makes it by less than fifteen votes or misses by one or two. Problem is people have staked out their position on Blyleven whereas very few have boxed themselves into a corner about Alomar.
If anyone's interested, my annual prediction piece just went up:
Wednesday's Cooperstown results today
What about the Schilling factor.Does he take enough votes away from Morris to keep in out? Because it would take a small miracle for him to get in 2014.
Nine Votes: one more for Larkin and Bagwell.
So lots for the voters to not like and the only thing he has going for him is that he was a damn, good pitcher. Who'd think that might be enough to get you in? :-)
In fairness, I didn't put him on my ballot either. I put him behind Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, Glavine, Mussina, Smoltz and Schilling although it's quite close after the big 4. I decided that even in today's game, 3200 IP isn't that impressive and he doesn't have any of the extra stuff you might look for. If I had a real vote, I'd have probably put him on to help keep him on the ballot.
I'd venture a guess that this isn't discussed much because, even after TZ/Rfield discounts his defense within WAR, he's still pretty comfortably above the bar for a Hall of Fame career, so it's not worth discussing as much as it would be if he were more borderline....
We need to get some statnerd thought into the VC. Vida Blue has some status in the "common" history of baseball, while I literally never heard the name Bobby Grich until I got into sabermetrics.
1) Roberto Alomar, 2) Jeff Bagwell, 3) Bert Blyleven, 4) Barry Larkin, 5) Edgar Martinez, 6) Rafael Palmeiro, 7) Tim Raines and 8) Larry walker
1) Palmeiro but not McGwire? That just makes no sense.
2) All the classic underrated all-around players we expect - Walker, Larkin, Raines, Bagwell - but no Trammell?
He doesn't have an actual ballot, does he?
It wouldn't surprise me if 99.9999% of the casual fans in the 70's could talk about Vida Blue for an hour, but if you mentioned Bobby Grich, you'd better hope they were from Baltimore or (later) Southern California if you wanted to get more than a blank stare. It's just a far more extreme version of the Morris-Blyleven split.
Oh, and "Lenny Harris for HOF!"
It wouldn't surprise me if 99.9999% of the casual fans in the 70's could talk about Vida Blue for an hour, but if you mentioned Bobby Grich, you'd better hope they were from Baltimore or (later) Southern California if you wanted to get more than a blank stare. It's just a far more extreme version of the Morris-Blyleven split.
I disagree Grich a 6 time allstar 4 gold gloves in a row. HR title.If you talk to a fan from the 70s and they dont remember Grich than they are clueless.
I know Repoz is waiting on both the ESPN.com & MLB.com motherlodes. Those places used to release votes earlier.
#178 As I've mentioned, Alomar didn't do particularly well in DA (the best PBP metric available from his day)
Basically average in range (with one terrible year) and slightly below average at starting the DP.
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2010-12/hof-2011/story/why-i-voted-for-palmeiro-and-alomar-for-the-baseball-hall-of-fame
Palmeiro, Alomar, McGwire, Bagwell, Blyleven, Smith, McGriff, Mattingly
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2010-12/hof-2011/story/why-i-voted-for-palmeiro-and-alomar-for-the-baseball-hall-of-fame.
OHHHHH One Vote Palmerio and Mcgwire, others.
ESPN's votes are up. Seems like they reflect the current trend.
Best ballot, Barry Stanton: Morris, Mattingly, Surhoff.
test
EDIT: yay!
17 Alomar
14 Blyleven
10 Larkin
10 Morris
9 Smith
8 Bagwell
8 Raines
8 Edgar
7 McGwire
4 Palmeiro
4 Trammell
2 McGriff
1 Tino Martinez
1 Mattingly
1 Murphy
1 Parker
1 BJ Surhoff
1 Walker
There are no words.
My initial guess was that the Surhoff vote was just a bone thrown to a local kid (Stanton worked for years at the Journal News in Westchester, where Surhoff's from). But looking at the rest of the ballot, it's possible he's simply deranged.
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