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Monday, January 21, 2019

Hall of Fame: Fred McGriff and five other players whose candidacy is in jeopardy

Baseball is one of the few prominent sports that isn’t defined or determined by time. However, when it comes to baseball’s Hall of Fame voting process, time, and sometimes space, make all the difference in the world.

That’s the reality several notable Hall of Fame candidates are facing as we approach the unveiling of the 2019 class.

For some, time is running out. That’s the position Fred McGriff is in. To be elected into the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), candidates must be named on 75 percent of the ballots turned in by qualified voters. If they don’t receive the necessary votes after 10 years on the ballot, their name comes off and their fate will be determined down the road by a veteran’s committee.

A consideration of some players on this BBWAA ballot likely not to be on the next one.

QLE Posted: January 21, 2019 at 06:13 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: andruw jones, andy pettitte, fred mcgriff, hall of fame, lance berkman, michael young, roy oswalt

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   1. Baldrick Posted: January 21, 2019 at 07:15 AM (#5807229)
The Baines thing was a godsend to McGriff who I'd now say is pretty much 100% to get inducted as soon as he goes to the veteran's committee. He probably had a good shot anyway, but it's now basically a foregone conclusion. This year is simply about running out the clock while he waits for the other door to get opened.
   2. The Duke Posted: January 21, 2019 at 07:59 AM (#5807237)
I think they ought to leave the crime dog on the main ballot for five more years. He’s been hit hard by ballot crowding and in the next five years we would see his true level ( which I don’t think is more than 50-55%).
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: January 21, 2019 at 10:51 AM (#5807282)

The Baines thing was a godsend to McGriff who I'd now say is pretty much 100% to get inducted as soon as he goes to the veteran's committee. He probably had a good shot anyway, but it's now basically a foregone conclusion. This year is simply about running out the clock while he waits for the other door to get opened.


Absolutely. That ballot is still mostly otherwise devoid of legit candidates (particularly if the screening committee continues to reject McGwire).

   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5807388)
It's hard to say that crowding hurt McGriff much. On the one hand, you'd expect him to have crept up bit by bit every year such that he might finish around 50% (although this never happened for Parker, Murphy, Mattingly, etc.). But on the other hand, his first 3 ballots weren't in the least bit crowded (some of the weakest of recent memory) and he made no progress on those ballots at all. He debuted 15 points behind Edgar and also aready behind Raines and Trammell. The far superior Bagwell hit the ballot in Fred's year 2 and outpaced him by 24 points. Fred even debuted behind McGwire and never really passed him so much as McGwire fell.

Certainly the crowding that began in year 4 doomed him to not picking up support for a few years but it didn't seem to hurt him particularly -- he seemed to have his core 15-20% support but never made a dent outside of those voters whether the ballot was crowded or not. The ballots stopped being crowded a few years ago and again Fred made little/no progress. We are seeing what I think (check with Dag) is one of the largest last-ballot bumps for a candidate that we've ever seen which I'm just writing off as a fluke.

Perfectly reasonable candidate of course in the Billy Williams, Willie Stargell mold.

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