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No surprised to see Goose elected. 24.3% for Raines is abhorrent.
Blow up the damn voting.
I hope he rips modern closers in his induction speech ;-)
Has anyone ever gotten more than 70% of the vote, only to fall short? What's the most anyone has ever gotten without getting in through the BBWAA?
Gossage got in with 86% as Andy said; Jim Rice fell 14 votes short and will go in with Rickey Henderson next year.
Tim Raines only got 24%. Even less than I imagined. Dawson and Rice are both going to gain steam next year; and with Rickey Henderson hitting the ballot, a lot of guys that voted for Raines this year are going to drop him next year and replace him with Henderson. I wouldn't be shocked if Raines crashed to 4% and fell off the ballot.
I said I'll go on the record predicting Tim Raines will not be elected by the BBWAA. This is going to be the Raccoon Lodge's standing-our-ground issue against those damned computer-loving bloggers. In response to this from Dag Nabbit:
My response is that, well, his initial showing of 24% is lowish for players that eventually get elected, and like I said, I really think the BBWAA is going to collectively dig in its heels and give us--"us" meaning the general group of people that tends to hang around BBTF--the middle finger, making Tim Raines the context.
Rich "Goose" Gossage 466 (85.8%)
Jim Rice 392 (72.2%)
Andre Dawson 358 (65.9%)
Bert Blyleven 336 (61.9%)
Lee Smith 235 (43.3%)
Jack Morris 233 (42.9%)
Tommy John 158 (29.1%)
Tim Raines 132 (24.3%)
Mark McGwire 128 (23.6%)
Alan Trammell 99 (18.2%)
Dave Concepcion 88 (16.2%)
Don Mattingly 86 (15.8%)
Dave Parker 82 (15.1%)
Dale Murphy 75 (13.8%)
Harold Baines 28 (5.2%)
Rod Beck 2 (0.4%)
Travis Fryman 2 (0.4%)
Robb Nen 2 (0.4%)
Shawon Dunston 1 (0.2%)
Chuck Finley 1 (0.2%)
David Justice 1 (0.2%)
Chuck Knoblauch 1 (0.2%)
Todd Stottlemyre 1 (0.2%)
Brady Anderson 0
Jose Rijo 0
I'm surprised how poorly he did given the off year for new candidates.
I guess I shouldn't be, but I am surprised that Raines didn't get more consideration.
Also, just so we can see who has family in the BBWAA, here's the back of the bus:
<U>Two votes</U>
Rod Beck
Travis Fryman
Robb Nen
<U>One vote</U>
Shawon Dunston
Chuck Finley
David Justice
Chuck Knoblauch
Todd Stottlemyre
<U>Shutout</U>
Jose Rijo
Brady Anderson
I am baffled as to why Dale Murphy gets so little support. Not that I think he should be in, but he has the same "fear factor" argument as Jim Rice, and unlike Rice, was considered a model citizen to reporters. I would have guessed he'd be getting Jack Morris-like support.
Morris was kind of a dick to reporters wasn't he? Why the love now?
But the real scary thing is that Jack Morris outpolled Raines by nearly 20 percent. Well, Rice being a lock for induction next year is very scary too.
But really...24.3%? I'm more than fed up with the BBWAA.
Nellie Fox fell two votes short in his last year on the ballot, prompting Jerome Holtzman to argue that his vote percentage should've been rounded up to 75%, thereby putting him in. No, I am not kidding.
I think you're giving the BBTF types too much credit. I don't think the average BBWAA writer gives a crap about what the BBTF types think. Sure, there are a few (Gammons, Ringolsby, etc.) who know all about our type and what we think, but I don't think there's enough of them for Raines to not get elected -BECAUSE- they were trying to give us the middle finger.
... Shawon Dunston? Really? Was he really more worthy of a vote than Jose Rijo?
Sorry, I meant to say, what's the highest total a player has ever received, who never got into the Hall, at least through the BBWAA? Like if Rice never got into the Hall, would he have the highest vote percentage ever?
Exhibit for the Prosecution A, Your Honor
Jim Bunning with 74.2% -- right?
Gossage 83..86
Rice 74..72
Dawson 62..66
Blyleven 56..62
L Smith 35..43
Morris 42..43
John 26..29
Raines 45..24
McGwire 32..24
Trammell 17..18
Concepcion 17..16
Mattingley 13..16
Parker 15..15
Murphy 12..14
Baines 3..5
Of the 15 names:
Exactly right: 1 (Parker)
Off by 1%: 3 (Concepcion, Trammell, Morris)
Off by 2%: 3 (Rice, Murphy, Baines)
Off by 3%: 3 (Gossage, John, Mattingley)
Off by 4%: 1 (Dawson)
Off by 6%: 1 (Blyleven)
Off by 8%: 2 (Smith, McGwire)
Commically off: 1 (Raines)
In the article I said Repoz and Law's estimates would likely be better than mine. Boy, was I right! On backloggers, I was off by an average of 3.1%. Yeah, I feel pretty good about that.
As for Mark McGwire, at this pace he should get in some time around the year 2525.
Better learn to get used to disappointment, Popeye.
Blyleven: 61.9%, +14.2% over last year
Morris: 42.9%, +5.8% over last year
Blyleven is actually gaining steam, and with Gossage's election he's now the highest-ranked pitcher on the ballot, in addition to being by far the best.
No notable pitchers are hitting the ballot next year, and I can't immediately think of any hitting in 2010, either. I think Blyleven's going to make it.
But really...24.3%? I'm more than fed up with the BBWAA.
Roger that. Gossage is a reasonable selection; I'm not sold on him, but if you're going to be electing relievers, it makes a hell of lot more sense to have him in than Sutter or Eckersley.
But essentially this result amply demonstrates that this particular edition of this elective body couldn't find their a$$ with a map and GPS.
David Cone, Matt Williams, Mark Grace, Mo and Greg Vaughn. Cone's the only one with any sort of case, but none of them are going to get much support.
I doubt these voters think of those players as HOFers. They just thought they should get a token of respect before they fall off the ballot. I don't understand why its a big deal.
About 50% of the people voting on this think Jim Rice was a better player than Tim Raines. I find that much more troubling.
The low support for Raines is ridiculous. Behind Smith, Morris and John? How?
Both Murphy and Parker deserve a spot over Jim Rice.
I think you're wildly their desire to give us the finger. They'll listen or they'll ignore. The Blyleven candidacy implies they'll listen.
In post #53 in this thread I give the first year balloting percentages for everyone with at least 10% in their debut year since 1956.
24% is low, but not hopelessly so. Blyleven took 5 years to get up that high. Now he's over 60%. With weak newcomers (aside from Raines) coming up in the next few years, he's an excellent bet to go in through the front door.
You know what his big weapon will be? After Henderson's one year on the ballot there will be no one like him at all. No one with 800 steals. People can keep promoting his strengths and over time he'll trickle his way up the ballot. That's my prediction anyway.
Has anyone ever gotten more than 70% of the vote, only to fall short? What's the most anyone has ever gotten without getting in through the BBWAA?
Jim Bunning with 74.2% -- right?
Nellie Fox, 74.7%.
Since this is the Hall of "Fame", this is not necessarily true. About 50% of the voters think that Jim Rice was some combination of a better player -and more famous- than Tim Raines.
Hmm... A "feared" power hitter who spent his career in Boston against a guy viewed by many as a base stealer who spent his best years in Montreal. Who do you think is more famous?
Rik Aalbert does have a clear field, for what it's worth. David Cone next year, Rod Beck and Kevin Appier in '10, Kevin Brown and Troy Percival in '11. Cone looks to get the most votes of that group, but I don't see anyone making it. The next blockbuster name is Clemens in 2012 (maybe).
Since I'm in a random prediction mood this week:
2009: Henderson & Rice
2010: Dawson
2011: Blyleven
There were 5.36 names on this year's ballot by my count. That's a new all-time low. I had it pegged at 5.39 or 5.4 in my guessing. Not the exact right number, but I guessed right that it would be an all-time low.
EDIT: sorry about misreadnig the line I quoted. Oops.
Well, it fits. Jim Rice is nothing without fear.
I don't think its a big deal, but I find it troubling that voters don't take this seriously enough to not give token votes to guys they knew.
I don't know why any player who is obviously not a HOFer would want a token sympathy vote anyways. Its patronizing.
uh, why?
what stops the writers from just voting for rickey? this year's big newcomer didn't even get 25% of the votes, why would rice have a better chance with rickey as a newcomer? heck, if the writers didn't like goose, they could've voted no one in this year, like '96 and the late 50s.
If they said something different like, "rice will get those last 16 votes out of sympathy, it being his last year and all" or even if they said "he'll go in next year *in spite of* Rickey being a newcomer" that would all make perfect sense. but linking rice's chances next year to rickey's arrival on the ballot makes no sense.
Fame is not one of the criteria.
Joe Carter called... he thinks he was scary too and wants a recount if Rice gets in.
Scary's overstating it. That's why a hyporbole is.
You really believe that? That ANY writer says "hmm, Raines was a better all around player, but Rice was more famous - he should get my vote"
What took Gossage so long to get in? He was more famous than that kid from Milwaukee, what's his name, Robin Youngs?
If you have a ballot spot available I don't think it's troubling. It also could be that they thought he was close enough to the borderline that he deserved a vote hoping he doesn't fall off the ballot.
what stops the writers from just voting for rickey? this year's big newcomer didn't even get 25% of the votes, why would rice have a better chance with rickey as a newcomer?
Why would Rice have a chance. I looked it up (Guideline #6) and guys in their final year do have their ballot go up. They average 22% in year 14 and 25% in year 15. Depending on if you prefer division or subtract, that's an uptick of 14% or 3%. Either will give Rice what he needs.
His being so close to the border should help. The writers usually don't like seeing guys come that close and not going in (Bunning is the exception, but that's because Perry, Jenkins, and Kaat his the ballot the next year. And Palmer the year after. There's only one new outfielder in Henderson and as a lead-off man instead of slugger, I don't think he'll pull too many votes away).
Grace led the 90's in hits. I believe every other player who lead a decade in hits (minus Rose) is in the Hall. Writers love that sort of thing. Expect him to get a surprising amount of support (more than Raines, I suspect)
Raw vote increases are interesting to look at too. In order they were in last year.
Gossage - 388 - 466 (78 more votes to get in)
Rice - 346 - 392
Dawson - 309 - 358
Blyleven - 260 - 336 (76 more votes, biggest increase outside of Gossage)
Smith - 217 - 235 (figured he'd slow down now that he doesn't have the save record)
Morris - 202 - 233
McGwire - 128 - 128 (wow, identical)
John - 125 - 158 (33 increase vs Morris' 31)
Concepcion - 74 - 88 (thought he'd get a bigger bounce for his last year)
Trammell - 73 - 99 (sigh)
Parker - 62 - 82
Mattingly - 54 - 86 (over 50% increase)
Murphy - 50 - 75 (50% increase)
Baines - 29 - 28 (guess a Chicago voter quit voting)
545 total voters last year, 543 this year.
Anyway, the author of that article said that nobody has gotten as close as Rice in year 14 & not gotten in in year 15. Also, Rice & Rickey are pretty different players & I could see writers voting for both.
Imagine the ballot in 2012, with both Roger & Barry as first-time candidates. Who would get more votes?
Bingo. Murph reversed his downward trend this year, but obviously a long way to go.
I continue to find the lack of support for Trammell laughable.
With Fryman and Dunston? Nope, nobody had any illusions - they were going to be one and done. These were token votes, and I have no problem with that. And the players don't find it patronizing - look up Jim Deshaies and his campaign to get one vote.
I really have no idea. I'm just trying to come up with any reason why someone would vote for Rice over Raines. Obviously, the "Raines was a better player than Rice" argument has been examined from a million sides and beaten to death already, so if the writers used that as their criteria, it seems that any research at all would have led many of them to vote for Raines, not Rice.
But most of them didn't. Which leads me to believe that the quality of their play was NOT the only important factor. And I have no way to measure this, but it seems likely that to most people, Jim Rice was a more famous player than Tim Raines. So I wouldn't be surprised if some writers voted based on that idea.
Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Roger Hornsby, Paul Waner, Lou Boudreau, Richie Ashburn, Roberto Clemente, Pete Rose, Robin Yount, Mark Grace.
Mark Grace = Hall of Famer.
it makes it seem like they were teammates and they should have gone in together or something else weird like that. the whole tone of the sentence was just wrong.
It wasn't a good sentence, but I don't think the intent was to link their candidacies. I think he just meant Rice will go in next year when Rickey Henderson will also be ushered in.
Jose already got his token vote, the first time he was eligible.
Only "gamers" get token sympathy votes. If you're white or dead, you can even get two token sympathy votes. If you may have used steroids once, your token sympathy vote gets taken away from you.
HOW DOES BERT BLYLEVEN GET MORE VOTES THAN JACK MORRIS!
I also think we're all going to be shocked and appalled when Raines drops into the teens next year, but the trend will reverse itself in 2010, once Henderson is cleared off. Historically there's precedent for a player's vote total to take a one-year dip when another player, who is comparable and distinctly better, hits the ballot, as will be the case with Raines and Henderson next year.
Its not Rob Neyer and Keith Law doing the voting. Its people who put more stock in raw RBI totals than any kind of run or win measure. And they don't believe in park adjustments, or era adjustments. Or they don't understand them.
Their way of dealing with park issue will be this: Larry Walker is eligible, Coors field is too extreme to ignore, so his stats will be pushed aside, counted as meaningless. For everyone else, Boston = San Diego as far as parks go. Good thing Tony Gwynn hit for the same kind of averages Boggs did in spite of his park.
I was talking in a general sense.
I might be giving the voters too much credit, but I can't see Grace getting much support--Will Clark never even got 5%, and, even with the "most hits in the '90s" tag, not too many people are going to argue that Grace was a better player than Clark. I'd bet a lot of money that he won't do better than Raines, and a smaller amount that he won't top 5%.
This isn't necessarily true. The writers have strange ideas about the legacies of quick inductions versus long waits. Raines might gain 100 voters next year from writers that didn't think he was worth first ballot consideration.
This crap I understand even less than the way the majority of voters evaluate candidates. Unless you're voting for 10 players a year, there's no reason a new candidate should force another person OFF your ballot. If you think the player's a Hall of Famer, and you haven't used up 10 ballot spots, FREAKING VOTE FOR HIM.
88% - Gossage
70% - Rice
64% - Blyleven
63% - Dawson
47% - Morris
32% - Raines
30% - Lee Smith
Yesterday, he listed the following for the rest of his top 10:
26% - McGwire
25% - Trammell
17% - T. John
Between that, Keith Law's tallying, and my predictions (already linked upthread - I'm sorta sorry for the whoring, part of me wishes I was consolidating it in one post, but I also don't want to have one too-long post - let's so how people did compared to the results:
Gossage - closest to Repoz. Law futhest.
Rice - split halfway between me and Repoz (include the decimal it's closest to Repoz, but I didn't have a decimal in my predicts). Law furthest.
Dawson: Law nailed it at 66%. Repoz furthest.
Blyleven - Closest to Repoz. I'm furthest.
Smith - None of us did very good. Law's closest, Repoz furtherest.
Morris: I'm closest, Law furthest.
John: I'm closest. Repoz furthest.
Raines - No one's close. Law closest at 8% off. I had the single worst prediction of anyone on him.
McGwire - Law nailed it at 24%. I'm furthest.
Trammell - I'm closest, Repoz furthest.
That's all the repoz predictions I have. In those ten:
Closest
Law: 4
Repoz: either 2.5 or 3, depending on how you want to score Rice.
Me: 3 or 3.5 for same reasons.
Furthest:
Law: 3
Repoz: 4
Me: 3
Beyond the top ten, comparing me and Law:
Concepcion - I'm closer.
Mattingley - I'm closer.
Parker - I'm closer - the only one I nailed.
Murphy - Law's closer.
Baines - We both said 3%.
I feel pretty good about it. The ones I botched up badly (McGwire and especially Raines) were the ones I had the least confidence in anyway.
Jim Deshaies was thrilled.
More and more BBTF types will become BBWAA writer types as time goes on. For one thing, more MBWAA writer types will be influenced by BBTF types. Look how much more mainstream BBTF-type -- OK, sabermetric type -- ideas have become in the last 10 years. For another, there are new BBWAA writer types all the time as new writers get promoted to beat jobs. As time passes, more and more of those writers will have grown up with sabermetric thinking being part of the mainstream, not to mention the recent loosening up of membership requirements to include Web writers.
Assuming Raines doesn't make it in, by the end of his eligibility period, there will be BBWAA types who were too young to read when "Moneyball" was released.
This is exactly correct. You could call it the Vern Stephens effect; (MVP) voters ignored Vern Stephens' numbers because they were so disorienting, so far ahead of every other shortstop on earth, that they didn't know what to do with them. Stephens' numbers were largely a fabrication of Fenway, but even then, Road Vern Stephens was still, by far, the best hitting shortstop in the league. Even in the counting stats, he had years where just in his half-season's worth of games on the road he led all shortstops in HR/RBI.
(Jim Rice never did any comparable thing, of course, being an outfielder.)
I find it incredibly unlikely that Grace will get anywhere near 24%. The most hits in a decade thing gets mentioned about Grace, but I've never heard anyone outside of fans on talk radio say he's a Hall of Famer.
Grace is 854th in career MVP shares. Without checking, I'll guarantee that no one position player who played in the MVP era has done that poorly in MVP voting and gotten 20% of the vote.
Percival is still active. Which actually strengthens your point.
This is incorrect.
I doubt anyone's ever gotten this much in Year 14 and still not been elected in Year 14.
I'm feeling Henderson and Rice next year, obviously, with Andre Dawson treading water (since, like Raines, some will drop him from the ballot for a year to make room for Henderson)
Few things: Dawson got 45.3% of the vote his first year on the ballot. Every single person in the last half-century who did that well in their debut BBWAA ball ended up getting 75%. No exceptions.
2) How is Dawson treading water? He got 66% this year. That's a new personal best. He dropped down a bit last year, but then again almost everyone in the backlog lost some support (only Gossage with the Sutter effect and Concepcion went up - the latter by 1%). As of 2004, Dawson had peaked at 50%. He's moving up. It's not a perfect march upwards, but it's heading there. He won't go in next year, but he's very well positioned for 2010. Once they put Rice in, it's harder to leave Dawson out.
3) Henderson's arrival will hurt Dawson a lot more. They're much more similar players as base stealing lead-off men.
EDIT: Oh, you meant Dawson will tread water next year? In that case, I misread your statement. My apologies.
Technically true, since Bunning got his 74.2% in year 12.
Edit: Actually I take that back. His defensive statistics don't look too bad. I just recall having read he had a pretty bad defensive reputation.
By the way, I need to make sure to be in Cooperstown for next year's induction ceremony. Henderson and Rice has to make for the best pair of induction speeches in history right? I mean, Henderson by himself is near-guaranteed to be the best ever. Rice just puts it over the top.
That, and Rod Beck was on this year's ballot.
Doug, CT: Do you feel responsible for Rice not getting in the Hall? Peter Gammons thinks you're at least partially to blame...
Rob Neyer: (3:13 PM ET ) I wish I had that kind of juice.
This is incorrect.
Well, you could have a few BBWAA members who were too young, but it would be hard for a HOF voter to fit that description.
Craig Biggio
This is the only the 8th straight time that Blyleven got more votes than Morris. Even if you just go by the triple crown stats, Blyleven has more wins, more strikeouts and a lower ERA than Morris. Since Russo has been adamant in the past that Morris is not a HOFer (I am not sure if he changed his mind this year though) I'm not sure why he is surprised.
There are dozens of reasons why someone would vote for Rice over Raines. However, none of them bear the slightest resemblance to a good reason.
Yes, as death reduces the chances one will come out of retirement.
I don't find it very surprising. There are two types of people who didn't vote for him last year: those that don't vote for anybody on the first ballot, and those punishing him for steroids. Since those are both retarded positions, I figure that the former is a subset of the latter. This year, lots of people are punishing him for steroids because the report just came out, and the issue was in their faces when they voted. Since the people punishing him for steroids this year are basically the same people who punished him for steroids last year, his vote total should be the same. I find it encouraging for McGwire that in the face of this new round of hysteria, he didn't lose any net votes.
Hopefully on the morning of November 4th the GOP will pay you a tidy sum to compose their spin on the election. You've certainly got a talent for spin.
To quote Chris "Mad Dog" Russo today after reading off the HOF list.
HOW DOES BERT BLYLEVEN GET MORE VOTES THAN JACK MORRIS!
Repoz, was that shout-out real or apocryphal? I'd be 100% certain that it was the former, except that Morris never played for the Giants.
From: The Goose
To: kwarren
Nyah nyah nyah nyah NYAH nyah
;-)
BTW: YAY GOOSE!
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE!
The people withholding votes on McGwire want to know about the PEDs. If he isn't talking then they aren't very likely to assume the best. Maybe he'll come out now that it's apparent he won't get elected without coming clean.
It looks to me like Blyleven is on the way to induction.
Mark Grace and Jim Morris should team up to promote "best of the decade" candidacies.
I am confused as to why people are up in arms about Shawon Dunston getting a handshake vote.
From: The Goose
To: kwarren
Nyah nyah nyah nyah NYAH nyah
;-)
Amen, Srul.
So if Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine all die in the next couple years, then suddenly Blyleven gets a lot more competition on the ballot.
This is incorrect.
Well, you could have a few BBWAA members who were too young, but it would be hard for a HOF voter to fit that description.
Whoops. Right. Incorrect. I forgot about the 10-year thing for HoF voting, which is what I was referring to. But the point stands. More and more BBWAA types are minted each year who were not old farts when sabermetric thinking became mainstream.
Maybe he meant most feared?
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