Amaro sure loves his mega-deals.

By my count the Phillies have $104 million in 2013 payroll committed to Lee, Halladay, Papelbon, Howard, Utley and Rollins. Assuming $24 million for Hamels, that is $128 million between 7 guys. Using USA Today's figures that would be the 6th highest 2012 payroll by itself.

Either they're planning to go Yankees or they aren't thinking very far ahead.

Hamels is good. He would have got a lot on the open market, and could well have been worth it. The Phillies probably should have let him go all the same.

Yeah, if the Phillies want to be relevant in 2015 their system needs re-stocking, too. I know it's an unpleasant thing to do and it will piss off Marketing, but I think trading Hamels would have been better.

Hopefully some pitcher gets a $920 million contract this winter, Hamels looks like the best pitcher available on the trade market this time next year, and THEN they trade him to the Doyers.

Assuming the Nationals can figure out a way to add offense this offseason, the Phillies are going to be one very expensive second place team for the next couple of years. Or third, depending on how Atlanta continues to play.

Yeah, if the Phillies want to be relevant in 2015 their system needs re-stocking, too.

Eh. Cole Hamels is 28 years old with a career 125 ERA+. He'll be 31 in 2015. If they want to be relevant in 2015, they need a farm system, but they also need actual MLB stars like Cole Hamels.

I don't know what I'd do in the Phillies' position. They have too much elite talent under contract not to try to compete, but they don't have the complementary players to compete right now or the farm system to produce cheap complementary talent in the future. "Blow it up" isn't advisable when you have the talent they have - unless Montgomery wants to go full Loria and take profits now over fans later - and Cole Hamels is probably going to be better in 2014-2015 than whatever they'd have gotten back for him.

Blowing it up is not a good option for them, but I don't think letting Cole Hamels go, especially if you're getting good young talent back, is blowing it up. Just a retool. The Phillies already have an awful lot of mega-contracts on the books, two of them for starting pitchers. You need to spend some money on depth. So it's not just Hamels vs. whatever prospects he'd bring back; it's that plus the ability to spend that $24 million a year on something else.

Well, congrats, they locked up Hamels. Problem is, they still have lots of other problems.

My take is that the Phillies are convinced that this year was a fluke, in that the output of Halladay, Lee and Hammels has been abnormally low. If you add the injuries to Utley and HOward, and the incredibly BAD bullpen that they had, it's not unreasonable to think that's the case and to roll the dice again in 2013.

Also, the Phils have their cable deal up for renewal in 2014-2015, and it's possible that they are going to prop up the franchise as much as they need to until then to make sure that they get a HUGE payoff from that deal (not an unreasonable idea, IMO).

I don't like any plan that counts on Utley or Howard being healthy and productive. It's past time to start planning with the expectation that you're not getting much out of those guys.

Howard's contract is such a disaster.

Over 10% of Howard's contract is over, so there is THAT.

Yeah, if the Phillies want to be relevant in 2015 their system needs re-stocking, too.

I thought that's what they did when they traded Lee to the Mariners.

This is probably the best move the Phillies have in front of them.

Halladay (vesting option), Utley, Ruiz and Pence are free agents after 2013, so you load it up for one more go around next year and see what happens. Hamels and Victorino are making $24m between them, so perhaps they are thinking Hamels and Dom Brown will equal that next year.

I'd be curious what the Angels would want for Bourjos if I'm the Phillies. He'd hit better in the NL and is a ++ defender. I might trade Dom Brown for him if the Angels would do that. Then trade Victorino this year for a 3Bman or bullpen help.

Current contract status.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2012-roster.shtml

If the Yankees rent a third baseman while ARod recuperates, the Phillies might target him in the off-season.

Sean - the Angels better get more than Dom Brown back for Bourjos. While I likely overvalue Bourjos, I think plugging him into CF alongside Teout and Trumbo is the best move for the next few years. The fly ball tendencies of the staff could benefit from his defense.

If they trade Bourjos it should be for a young cost controlled 3rd baseman....

I love Hamels (he has been a staple of my fantasy teams), but I'm a big fan of the Phillies locking in the core of a last place team. I get that they have had their share of injuries this year (it's about time), but they have an awful lot of money tied up long term to players who should be past their prime.

The Phillies are in a tough spot right now, and they don't have any reasonable good options in front of them, so we're likely to kill them for whatever path they choose. This year is already toast. They could get a dead cat bounce in 2013 and compete for something. Their best option for 2014 and beyond is to go full Marlins and trade everything that isn't nailed down for prospects.

Ballin'!

Sean - the Angels better get more than Dom Brown back for Bourjos. While I likely overvalue Bourjos, I think plugging him into CF alongside Teout and Trumbo is the best move for the next few years.

I don't think you overvalue him. If nothing else Bourjos is a legit major league outfielder. We're not sure Brown is even that yet and he'll be 25 in a month. The Phillies are in a weird place and I think they're afraid to blow it up even if they probably should. All that star power on the roster, surely they must be able to compete, right? I think they could in 2013 but it will require everyone being healthy and this is a very brittle bunch. And the news yesterday was that they desperately want to trade Pence, who while not as good as his reputation isn't that old and is a downright Iron Man compared to the rest of the roster. Odd.

dead cat bounce in 2013?

A team that was averaging almost 100 wins a year prior to 2012?

Methinks Philly is no worse than a division co-favorite in 2013.

It was not a surprise that the Rollins-Utley-Howard-Victorino core of the team was aging and in many cases past its prime. The fact is that the Phillies have done little in the past few years besides getting Pence to rebuild a new "core" or at least provide solid complementary pieces. This isn't a team where position players are simply all producing at a league-average level and it's not clear where to upgrade. Sure, there have been some good decisions, such as the Halladay contract and not paying Werth what he could get on the market. But the franchise has had the resources in the past few years to add better complementary pieces/bench players than Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton. Having great front-line starting pitchers is very, very valuable in the postseason, but wouldn't two be enough? Having three great starters making $20M+ a piece seems like a luxury when you have an offense putting up an OPS+ of 93 and there are obvious lineup holes to be filled.

dead cat bounce in 2013?

A team that was averaging almost 100 wins a year prior to 2012?

Methinks Philly is no worse than a division co-favorite in 2013.

2012 happened. It was an old team in 2011. Basically the entire team is older and worse. They should be happy if they get a dead cat bounce.

I get that they have had their share of injuries this year (it's about time)

They certainly had their share last year, too.

Seems to me that if they were willing to pay Hamels this much, Cliff-Leeing him to the Dodgers or whoever and re-signing him in the off-season has a lot more upside than locking him up now, with a relatively small downside that he signs elsewhere and you have $24M to spend on other necessary upgrades.

I'm not optimistic that Amaro could spend $24M wisely on small upgrades, though, and ignoring the injury potential, getting out from under the contracts for Hamels/Halladay/Lee if they do eventually decide to blow up the team shouldn't be that hard, so I'm kind of ambivalent about this deal. If they can get the OK to bump the payroll enough to sign another bat and Utley/Howard can be decent for a year or two (which they seem clearly to be counting on) there might be enough to bridge to the big TV deal and maybe they can spend there way to being competitive down the road. Far more likely they end up treading water offensively and being mediocre long enough for Amaro to get canned, though.

Listening to Hamels speak at his press conference right now I can't help wondering what his boyfriend looks like.

Listening to Hamels speak at his press conference right now I can't help wondering what his boyfriend looks like.

He has a wife who was on Survivor or some other reality show.

Listening to Hamels speak at his press conference right now I can't help wondering what his boyfriend looks like.

Good lord, I can't believe you clicked submit on that one.

In related news, Juan Pierre hasn't been completely worthless this year. .305/.346/.370 95 OPS+ 23/27 SB OK D. He's close to being an average player.

Listening to Hamels speak at his press conference right now I can't help wondering what his boyfriend looks like.

Pretty good.

Probably shouldn't click on #29 if you're at work. Warnings, people, warnings.

I understand there's big risks letting him test FA, but isn't this about the max they would have had to pay him if they let him test the market? Couldn't they have pushed a little harder to get any kind of discount?

Listening to Hamels speak at his press conference right now I can't help wondering what his boyfriend looks like.

Edit: #### you.

i don't think you people understand how completely awful the bullpen has been.

according to zips, a league average reliever should have an ERA+ of ~108. the phillies have 1 of those, jonathan papelbon.

in fact, if you lower the threshold to 90, which is essentially replacement level, the phillies have 4 relievers above that, however, the above-replacement-level non-papelbon relievers (just for a laugh, their names are michael schwimmer, raul valdes, and jeremy horst) have thrown a combined 54 innings.

meanwhile, the sub-replacement level relievers on the phillies have thrown about 150 innings in relief.


if you look at a team like the pirates, they have 7 relievers who are above league average by measure of ERA+. if you look at the nationals, they have 6 relievers who are above league average by measure of ERA+


that's the reason the phillies are in the cellar. it's not just that their bullpen is bad, it's that every single reliever that they can put into the game is a ####### gascan.

i mean, with the down years from the starters, and the lack of hitting, bullpen or not, they wouldn't be winning 100 games again this year. but the difference between the phillies having the bullpen they have this year, and the one they had last year is probably the difference between them sitting around .500, and them currently being 10 games under.



and for everyone who's saying that the phillies have no farm system, the thing about them being ####### terrible this year is that if the season ended now, they'd be picking 8th overall. so, there's a consolation.

dead cat bounce in 2013?

A team that was averaging almost 100 wins a year prior to 2012?

2011 they had a team ERA+ of 127
Halladay 163 (career 136, though 163 was right in line with 2008-2010)
Cliff Lee 160 (career 115, seems to climb up to the 160s every so often...)
Hamels 137 (career 125, but has 4 years between 133 and 141)
Oswalt 104 (career 132, 2000+ IP seems to be breaking down)
Worley 127 (??? who knows, but I'm always somewhat suspicious of guys who pitch better in the majors than the minors...

In 2011 they got a130 out of Victorino - he's not that good
159 in 54 games from Pence (he's decent, but 159 is over his head
131 in 100 games from Mayberry- .263/.322/.445 in 359 AAA games, .248/.311/.468 in 90 AA games- that 131 for Mayberry was a bigger fluke than the 160 that Cooch is putting up now.


The 2011 Phillies won 102 games (pythag sez 103)- they did that with virtually the entire team at the high end of their (current) abilities (or in the case of some- arguably over)
The 2012 Phillies are on pace for 72-75 wins and by contrast have been hit by injuries and had some guys play at the low end of their abilities

which is a very long winded way of saying that the 2011 Phils were not THAT good, and the 2011 Phils are not THAT bad
I'm guessing that the 2011 team had "true talent" level of about 90 wins, and 2011 is (healthy) at about 85
Their is still talent here, but the position player core is just old and aging poorly to boot.

The sad thing is, Cole Hamels does have a funny voice. It is funny to watch that squeaky, reedy voice emerge from a big, strapping athlete. There's a joke there.

Comedy is one of the hidden victims of mouth-breathing "gay is funny" crapulence like that. There could have been a good joke.

Probably shouldn't click on #29 if you're at work. Warnings, people, warnings.

You're right. Edit function isn't working, but your post is probably deterrent enough.

i don't think you people understand how completely awful the bullpen has been.

Oh puhleese, your Pen is half a run better than the Mutt's pen, and the Mutts play in Citifield,

you also have fewer IP from you relievers than anyone (except SF), 5 teams have more blown saves, 7 have lower save rates,
your pen is merely very bad

OTOH you did have very good pen in 2011, so Philly may have the biggest 2011 to 2012 pen differential

I don't understand this deal right now. Is this supposed to be a discount over what he would have gotten as a free agent?

The sad thing is, Cole Hamels does have a funny voice.

It is very distinctive and something most folks outside of Philly don't realize. Post #25 is obviously idiotic, but during the game today, McCarthy asked Amaro why people sometimes thought Cole was soft and not competitive. Rube's answer: "Well, I think it's his voice...and the Southern California thing..."

It is a bit sad I guess to have that voice, since the guy has been a tough pitcher who battled a lot of early injuries (one in a bar fight) and is (2009 aside) usually money in big games, but I guess Heidi and the $144M helps.

Matt Kemp has a pretty high voice too.

Press conference. I dunno, sounds fairly normal to me. He's no Dave Stewart/Walter Payton.

Mike Tyson has a high voice.
No one was going to give him #### about it...

I'd be curious what the Angels would want for Bourjos if I'm the Phillies.

The Angels TV guys were talking last night about how he's untouchable.

Man, the upcoming FA markets get less and less inspiring every day it seems.

You're right. Edit function isn't working, but your post is probably deterrent enough.

Not at work, and enjoyed the link, glad the edit function didn't work.

i don't think you people understand how completely awful the bullpen has been.

This is one of those quotes that you can look at pre-season predictions, and final season predictions, find the teams with the biggest discrepency between pre-season(positive) and post-season and say about them, without doing one bit of actual research and probably be correct at least 50% of the time.

We all thought the 2007 Phillies had a bad bullpen because the only relievers with an ERA under 4.40 were JC Romero (1.24, 36.1 innings), Ryan Madson (3.05, 56 innings), and Joe Bisenius (0.00, 2 innings). This one makes that one look good.

This one makes that one look good.

actually, you are right, in 2007 the Phils Pen put up a 4.50 ERA, league average (relievers) was 4.09
in 2012 to date, the Phils pen has been 4.66, and league is 3.87

The thing is, 2012, the Phils pen just is no where near as bad as the Mets, Astros or Brewers, all 3 teams have a higher reliever ERA, more reliever losses- the Mets and the Brewers have more blown saves as well, the Astros have fewer saves and blown saves, which I think simply means that the Astros have far fewer save opps (the 2012 Astros are really bade BTW... boy did Ed Wade really set that franchise back...)

The Angels TV guys were talking last night about how he's untouchable.

Dipoto mentioned the same type of thing a few weeks ago. Even said that folks will know why he held on to Bourjos when he's starting in the OF in 2017.

Here's the quote:

"But Dipoto considers Bourjos an important part of the team's long-range outfield plans and has said repeatedly since last winter that he has no desire to trade the 25-year-old who hit .271 with 12 homers, 11 triples and 26 doubles last season.

Asked Friday if his stance on Bourjos has changed even slightly in light of the team's pitching woes, Dipoto said: "Not at all. I can't wait until you ask me that question in 2017."

LA Times - July 6, 2012

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-angels-notes-20120707,0,147270.story

Of course there's really no such thing as "untouchable" (e.g. if the Angels offered Trout for Bourjos -- oh wait, Reagins left :-) but the idea of the Angels trading Bourjos would seem to fall into the "useless question" category. Hunter's an FA at the end of the year and I don't imagine anybody thinks of Trumbo as a long-term answer in LF/RF (even if they like his future as a hitter). There's certainly no reason to be looking to trade Bourjos. Worst case is Bourjos is an excellent 4th OF.

And what pitcher on the market could demand that kind of return? I suppose the Bourjos-Delgado gap isn't huge so Dempster could possibly bring something like that back (although I assume he wouldn't OK a trade to the Angels) but it seems a stretch.

I can't wait until you ask me that question in 2017.

Interesting choice of year, I wonder if that was intentional. Bourjos is on schedule to be an FA after 2016. He'd probably be pretty cheap to buy out the arb and first FA years right now.

Mike Tyson has a high voice.
No one was going to give him #### about it...

Lots of people did. Just not to his face.

The thing is, 2012, the Phils pen just is no where near as bad as the Mets, Astros or Brewers, all 3 teams have a higher reliever ERA, more reliever losses- the Mets and the Brewers have more blown saves as well, the Astros have fewer saves and blown saves, which I think simply means that the Astros have far fewer save opps (the 2012 Astros are really bade BTW... boy did Ed Wade really set that franchise back...)

Brewers have the highest WHIP and most losses. My choice for the worst, but I'm a Brewers fan. It would be close between them and the Mets. Both teams have good starting pitching, which makes it more frustrating.

I don't understand this deal right now. Is this supposed to be a discount over what he would have gotten as a free agent?

He's two months from FA. You don't get a discount when you let the clock wind down that far. You just get to not lose him to another team.

Bourjos is really good. Overshadowed by Trout now but he's incredibly fast and a hell of a defender with respectable other skills. He was destined to regress from his awesome 2011 and he is not having a good year regardless, but he's really valuable. I don't know what the Angels should do with two legit plus CF but it's going to be hard for them to get fair value. Interesting problem.

Lots of people did. Just not to his face.

Well, not more than once.

Bourjos is really good.

He's really good defensively, his true hitting ability is likely a whole lot closer to 2012 than 2011 though, his minor league track record after accounting for offensive context* is very similar to Carlos Gomez- another terrific and speedy defender...


*Bourjos at 21 hit .295/.326/.444 in the Calif league (league was .273/.340/.412)
Gomez at 19 hit .275/.331/.370 in the Sallie League (.261/.336/.393)

Bourjos at 22 hit .281/.354/.423 in the Texas league (.266/.340/.391)
Gomez at 20 hit .281/.350/.423 in the Eastern League (.252/.323/.380)

Bourjos at 23 hit .314/.364/.498 in the PCL (.277/.348/.432)
Gomez at 21 hit .286/.363/.414 in the PCL (.279/.346/.437)

Here's the rub, most of Buourgo's PCL advantage is a park illusion, he played at Salt Lake City- park multiplier of 1.05 per DSzym, Gomez was in New Orleans- the best pitcher's park in the PCL

Gomez' park adjusted PCL OPS+ was 106, Bourjos was 114
Gomez outhit Boujos in AA
you could stick Bourjos 2010 and 2012 MLB statline in Gomez' career and no one would know they didn't belong

Bourjos was really good in 2011, but still imho the bulk of the evidence says, "4th OF"
sure he has 2011, but Franklin Gutierrez cleared 100 OPS+ twice

I don't know what the Angels should do with two legit plus CF but it's going to be hard for them to get fair value

Get an all flyball staff and punt infield defense? (AKA the mid 80s Met solution)

(AKA the mid 80s Met solution)

That would probably include days where Mark Trumbo is playing SS.

Bourjos was really good in 2011, but still imho the bulk of the evidence says, "4th OF"

No actually the bulk of the evidence says that Peter Bourjos had similar minor league numbers to Gomez. That says little about how well Bourjos will perform long term, as Gomez' career is a sample size of one.

Bourjos has 918 PA in the majors with a 94 wRC+ and a .303 BABIP. Given that he's likely the best defensive center fielder in the game, that's easily an above average player. FanGraphs has him worth 5 WAR per 600 PA so far in his career. Even if you think his offensive will regress and that FG is overvaluing his defense, he's still easily a starting caliber player.

I agree Bourjos is unlikely to hit long-term -- for a guy with his speed, he has a really low BA. There's "power" but it's triples-heavy -- and oddly this year he has 0 triples and only 2 steals (in not a lot of time but still). He strikes out too much for a guy with his hitting profile.

But this makes him a poor man's Gary Pettis (add walks and he is Gary Pettis) or Juan Pierre (lower BA, much better defense) --with him it's all about the defense. As long as Trout can handle swapping LF and CF, Bourjos should be reasonably valuable to this team longerm.

Yes, Carlos Gomez can't hit -- but Gomez has produced just under 6 WAR (.3 WAA) in just under 3 years worth of PA and assuming you think his +45 on defense is legit, there's nothing wrong with that. Yes, Pettis couldn't hit but he produced about 20 WAR in 7 seasons worth of time. Yes, we enjoy making fun of Juan Pieere, but ages 22-29 he produced like an average player. Drew Stubbs can't really hit and he's been a bit above-average so far. Corey Patterson wasn't a good hitter -- and was only 1.5 wins below average from 22-28 (5-6 seasons worth).

Peter Bourjos -- cheap and excellent defender -- will most likely be about an average ML CFer at least until FA. His bat will likely mean that a lot of those seasons will be of the 400-500 PA variety but that's OK.

Like I said, not really "untouchable" by any means (unless you believe 2011 offensive numbers maybe) but not a player you are looking to move unless you're getting valuable return.

If I have Mike Trout on my team and a high payroll, I don't see why I'd want to settle for an all glove CFer. And if he's just going to be a part-time player, he probably has more value in trade than he has to the Angels.