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1. Tricky Dick Posted: May 16, 2012 at 08:13 AM (#4132603)That's what he's been doing, right? That's the only thing that makes sense.
Maybe, but still not as much as the 250 million dollar man. On the other hand, Hatcher was pretty terrible so it's possible this has nothing to do with the big guy.
The Angels need Mathis back!
Well done.
that'll fix it!
*rolls eyes*
Well, naturally. Being a Pope, we would expect you to deny it.
DB
Dave Magadan and Kevin Long are in their sixth years. Anyone beat them?
Well, it'll fix their problem of having Mickey Hatcher as their hitting coach, which is kind of a good thing in and of itself.
Wow, just wow if that's true... I mean - he's been universally and long hailed as just awful, awful, awful at being a hitting coach. He CAN'T be the longest tenured, can he? Has there been Hatcher student that's excelled or exceeded talent under his tutelage? Seems to me the Angels have run plenty of talent through his thresher, virtually all of which has stagnated or worse... Which Angels hitter is on his resume... Chone?
Napoli did alright.
He's done better since escaping...
Mark Trumbo.
Torii Hunter has maintained his above average production through his contract, a mild surprise given he was 32 when he signed and about to turn 37.
Oh, and Kendry Morales. His AAA numbers were inferior to those of Brandon Wood. Despite playing in SLC he didn't hit for a ton of power there, but has been a power hitting force in MLB, and I don't think anybody will blame Hatcher for that walk-off grand slam celebration.
I wouldn't quite say that:
Morales hit .335/.374/.518 in AAA
Wood (2 years younger) hit .279/.344/.523, same team/park largely overlapping seasons
But still MASSIVELY divergent MLB outcomes considering how close quality wise they were in AAA
You know what other SS prospect hit very similar to Wood and Morales in AAA (PCL)?
Ronny Cedeno: .355/.411/.527 (618 PAs)
Career MLB OPS+
Morales: 119
Cedeno: 69
Wood: 39
It's almost enough to make one think that Minor League Stats are meaningless :-)
Minor league stats in triple-A, and the PCL, sure.
He then hit .276/.355/.552 in the Texas League (league was .269/.343/.417 that year) (and Arkansas scored 4.96 r/g and gave up 6.27- I don't have park factors handy, but I'm guessing- good hitter's park...)
Wood has played most of his Minor League career in atypically high run environments- as Bill James noted in his first ever Abstract article on MLEs- some minor league numbers have a lot of "air" in them and you have to take that air out first... Wood's raw minor league numbers have A LOT of "air" in them.
Which doesn't quite explain Kendrys Morales- who had a comparable amount of "air"- I think the following:
1: Wood was never as good as you would think from his raw numbers in the Minors- he had that nice shiny 43 homer league from A ball (Calif league)- but in AAA he was never one of the league elites- sure he popped a .970 OPS once- but 11 guys that year cleared 1.000
2: Wood's game translated poorly, perhaps he's a mistake hitter, perhaps he's particularly bad on breaking stuff and was helped by the high altitudes of many of his minor league parks
3: Wood peaked at 20/22, it happens...
4: Morales' game translated better to MLB for whatever reason- in the minors he was low walk and low K - perhaps he's actually helped by facing guys with better command who are more often throwing near the plate...
5: Morales has made adjustments and/or otherwise improved...
I don't know what happened to Wood, and I've looked at him in extreme PBP detail. Even when matching specific pitchers who pitched in AAA and the majors, it turns out Brandon struggled in the show against pitchers he killed in the big leagues. From watching him I think at some point his confidence took a hit and he never recovered.
It is now, but there was a ballpark change a few years back.
In a previous thread on this topic - maybe 2-3 weeks ago - somebody ran through all the personnel changes since Scioscia took over for LAA, and it's simply that he NEVER changes his staff. EVER.
All the Angels hitting prospects hit in the same environments as Wood.
This prompted a question in my head. Are minor league hitting stats seeing the same decline that MLB has seen? Historically, does MiLB scoring track changes in MLB?
looking it up, yep, Wood played there the last year in Ray Winder Field (which was built in 1932 with "convict labor" according to BBREF)
and well we have park factors for 2006 Arkansas, and it was 1.24
so yes indeedy that was a serious hitter's park
That's a park factor, not a multiplier, the multiplier would be about 1.11, which gives him an OPS+ of 122 for his 2006 AA season
by way of comparison, Minnesota's "prize" in the Johann Santana trade, Carlos Gomez, hit .281/.350/.423 in AA that same year (EL, league was .252/.323/.380) Binghamton's 2006 park factor was 1.00, so Gomez's .773 OPS gave him a 120 OPS+ - essentially the same as Wood's .907 OPS in Arkansas. Neither man can hit worth a damn in the MLB.
1: Minor leagues have been all over the place
PCL was at .286/.359/.448 in 2011, up from .277/.348/.432 in 2010
The IL was .260/.329/.400 in 2011, down from .263/.330/.410 in 2010
2: They tend to track, but rather loosely, and not every year.
I think people tend to underestimate the difference in minor league run environments- some parks/leagues/years you can have a 6.00 r/g environment, another park/league/year you can see a 3.50 r/g environment.
In 1990 the EL hit .250/.318/.344. A certain prospect hit .333/.422/.457 (That's a 166 OPS+ without looking at park... this fellow played in a pitchers park though...) Compare that to the .286/.359/.448 PCL 2011 average (How about Albuquerque with its 1.23 park multiplier?)
Brett Lawrie hit .353/.415/.661 in AAA last year- a 1.076 OPS, tremendous but not quite as good in context as Bagwell's .879 OPS in 1990 - but a good 30 OPS+ points above Brandon Wood's career AAA best in 2008.
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