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1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)Anything more than that was/is just crazy talk
NL Pitchers in overall top ten:
Haren 42.6
Lincecum 40.9
Zambrano 39.9
Sheets 37.5
Hudson 37.4
Volquez 37.0
Now correct me if I'm wrong but I believe BPro's pitcher VORP does not include hitting.
OPS+ for those same pitchers:
Haren 16
Lincecum 19
Zambrano 129
Sheets -30
Hudson -9
Volquez -72
I would probably agree with the argument that the Cy Young award should not consider a pitcher's hitting contribution. I just wanted to point out the value of Zambrano's contribution at the plate.
If you want to take pitcher hitting into account, as well as defense and all around game, perhaps you want to look at WARP1 ?
Some of the leading CY candidates:
Haren 6.1,
Lincecum 5.7
Volquez 5.7
Zambrano 5.5
Hamels 5.4
Webb 5.2
Hudson 4.4
Sheets 4.0
Oops, don't know how I missed that one. Thanks, VW.
I'm guessing that Lincecum could win on performance + aesthetics. He's simply a joy to watch.
In many years he would have a good chance. I think there are too many pitchers on playoff teams right there with him.
Oddly, Cliff Lee's VORP has been updated to include last night's glorious victory, but Haren's hasn't. Although Hamels does pitch tonight, so it may only be temporary.
In the AL it looks like Longoria for ROY with Ellsbury and Joba getting some votes with their high profiles and all. Cliff Lee has the CYA wrapped up and Mike Mussina is on pace to get some "OMG!! WINZ!!!" votes. If Hamilton gets to 150 RBI he'll win the MVP. If he doesn't and the Twins make the playoffs, I really think Morneau is going to win and I can't think of anyone else the media might gravitate to.
We need a few threads to talk about it from the A's angle, though. That has been overlooked and under-discussed.
With just some neutral luck, Haren would have 12 or 13 wins and just 3 or 4 losses.
Don't rule out K-Rod.
(Hampton) is indeed still scheduled to make his season debut
I say neither one pitches!
Well.....Mussina does have a 3.26 ERA and 126 ERA+ and a 1.212 WHIP. I am shocked by how good he has been this year.
Depending on how they finish in the AL, Halladay could still finish strong and pip Lee at the end. We've seen that act before. And if the voters go for anyone on the "OMG!! WINZ !!!" vote, it could also be Saunders, if he manages to finish strong.
As for AL MVP, don't discount K-Rod's candidacy gaining some real traction among the voters since Gammons came out and mentioned it.
He's walked one batter this month. He has been a pure joy to watch.
Per Baseball Reference:
CBB Multi year pitching park factor 104
CBB single yr. pitching park factor 103
Chase Multi yr. pitching park factor 106
Chase single yr. pitching park factor 105
Dan Haren ERA+ 177, Cole Hamels ERA+ 143
Per ESPN Chase is a much tougher place to pitch than CBB as well.
It would be pretty cool to see him finally get a 20 win season so some of the HOF voters would actually vote for him when his turn comes up for CY voting.
Then again...with this years resurgence, is 300 a strong possibility for Mussina? He's at 263 and might only be 30 away by the end of the year. (You guys have probably already covered this, but I haven't been reading a lot of Yankees threads)
I don't see why he couldn't pitch another two years, certainly in the NL, which would probably get him near 300, but not to it. He might stick around a little longer to actually get there. I don't know.
Pretty high bounce.
Well, he's not going to "bounce past" Haren in ERA, WHIP or Wins, even if he pitches a perfect game, (although he could tie him in wins). Did you miss the part about Haren's ERA being over a half run lower than Hamels? It's funny....with more than a half dozen metrics to choose from, the Hamels fans are clinging to the one and only that shows Hamels and Haren as roughly equal.
What? Who are these fans "clinging" to anything? Vegas Watch just brought up VORP to correct #2.
And to be fair, WHIP and wins would also be metrics that show them roughly equal. Or k/9, or xFIP, in addition to VORP.
Haren should definitely be the front runner, but to suggest that Hamels is #10 in the league (like post #27) is ridiculous.
Edit - Incidentally, if Hamels did pitch nine innings with no baserunners allowed tonight, he *would* pass Haren in WHIP.
Hamels is #18 in the NL in FIP among pitchers with 80 or more IP, #10 in ERA, #7 in K% and #15 in BB%. Outside K%, Hamels doesn't even have an *argument* for being above #10. He is a very good starting pitcher. But he has not been the best, or even close. Ranking him around #10 in the NL is no insult. It's just a fair assessment.
But please, give me your argument: exactly how is Hamels better than Haren, Webb, Lincecum, Volquez, Billingsley, Zambrano, Sheets, Lowe and Peavy?
Your pal,
#27
First, for all the benefit Haren has gotten playing in the National Little League, he still has a .263 BABIP playing in front of a so-so defense, that's pretty lucky. in the long run I think he's going to be merely be a very good #2.
But AZ needs offense far more than pitching, 116 ERA+ vs. 94 OPS+. Look at the ERA+/OPS+ involved int he deal. Quentin (142) + CarGo (101) + Eveland (106) + Smith (99) + flotsam >>> Haren (177) + being forced to pitch Edgar Gonzalez (ERA+ 76) in fifth starts. AZ outfield offense has been awful this year making the loss of Quentin/Hairston/CarGo even more painful. Given that playing in the NL should pump up anyones OPS+ and ERA+ higher than the AL, and the Snakes clearly lost a few wins this year from this deal. And it was supposed to be about giving up future wins to create more wins now.
Of course if Quentin or Hairston had not been traded, this deal looks far better. Or if Eveland/Smith would not have gotten chances to start from the beginning, which is very possible.
The current FO has had plenty of alternative candidates and available starts to give pitchers other than Edgar a credible shot in 2006, 2007, and 2008. They have consistently chosen to ignore reality and dump that PT down a black hole. They have only been "forced" in the sense that they refuse to consider other possibilities.
It's pretty simple, all of your stats leave out two major factors in evaluating pitcher performance: ballpark and innings pitched.
Even discounting innings, Hamels is right around all of those other pitchers (except Haren and Volquez) you mention in ERA+. After tonight, Hamels will also have about 20 more innings pitched than those other pitchers, around 27 more than Haren, and more than 30 more than Volquez. 20-30 extra innings of 143+ ERA is very important, and that's why VORP likes Hamels.
Johnson finished 7th in the NL Cy Young voting in '98, FWIW.
Edit - Jinx is especially due to #39, as Hamels and Haren are now equal in unearned runs allowed. Thanks man.
Only six runs were earned, but it was enough to bump the ERA to 3.38.
His did, but mine didn't. See post 21
,
Prior to today, Hamels had 150.2 IP and Haren had 140.2 IP , were you expecting Hamels to pitch 17 innings tonight? ;)
Vegas watch, do you really think that 3 unearned runs allowed makes up anywhere near the gap in ERA+ of 34 points? Really?
And 2 of those unearned runs occurred when he was out of the game, as the errors occurred after he was relieved by Lyon. See bottom 9 of this game
While I completely get the idea that a run allowed is a run allowed, earned or not, and pitchers job does not end when an error occurs, and VORP is a good tool to look at in conjunction with other metrics, it's probably not a good idea to NEVER take into account the defense support a pitcher receives. Sometimes runs are scored that really aren't his fault. Of course sometimes runs SHOULD score when they don't, thanks to the defense. Thats why you look at FIP or DIPS as well.
Hamels is a really good pitcher. I have no problem ranking him in the top 5 among national league starters. But the quality of his pitching is not better than Haren's year to date. It's just not. And the additional 10 IP doesn't make up for the difference in quality. And thats BEFORE tonights start.
As I said, I was responding to wcw (who, absurdly, ranked Hamels below Dereck Lowe), and I miscalculated the difference in innings: I meant 17.
You seem overly defensive about Haren since a) no one has yet seriously disagreed with the point that he is the best pitcher in the NL so far and b) I specifically said Haren was the frontrunner, and deservedly so. Why are you so heated up? If he keeps this up, he will win.
Edit - Oh, and it's now jinx-free to say...good call #41!
Teixeira undressed him with his single.
Infante lined one a foot or so fair that almost undressed the ball girl.
Prado's ball was hard hit, well played off his chest by Utley who then couldn't find the handle.
Kotsay almost hit the runner with his single.
Hamels fielded Hampton's tapper then threw 8 feet behind Rollins covering 2b.
Blanco's bunt was perfect.
Teixeira's HR was a bomb. Granted, by then Hamels was tired. Probably sick and tired.
Anyway, Phillies won. Nothing new except that Hampton didn't break down. Of course, we'll know more tomorrow.
Do voters actually care about playoff teams for the Cy Young award? I thought they only cared about it for MVP.
I do not disagree with anything you were saying, nor was I trying to make the case for Hamels. I was merely pointing out that the unearned runs were a small part of the large discrepancy between VORP and ERA+.
I guess I should have made that more clear.
VORP considers schedule pretty well. The NL West is a joke within a joke.
Glad to hear. Though the CAPS from you post and the general tone ("really?") seemed disproportionately defensive to what VW and I were posting. Just the nature of the medium, I guess.
Probably the nature of the medium, but I can see how I might come off that way to someone who doesn't know me. I swear I'm not as big a dick as I might appear sometimes. :-) It's just the way I talk.
I guess I should use the italics or bold more when I want to emphasize a word or idea. I use Caps for emphasis on specific words, but am not shouting.
I didn't realize that. Well...Haren has a 2.41 ERA outside the NL West, (89.2 IP)
Meanwhile, Hamels has given up 12 ER in 27.1 IP to NL West teams this year for a 3.95 ERA
So kinda tough to say with these things, but for whatever reasons, I still don't think VORP is truly capturing the relative merits of these two pitchers. That doesn't mean VORP isn't a good metric. It just means there is something going on with both these guys that is slipping through the cracks, causing distortion. It happens.
Ballpark? Phoenix is a terrible place to pitch. Heat, bone-dry desert air and 1100-foot elevation trump Philly's little bandbox. Though I see #21 beat me to that little point.
Now, Hamels is around a game's worth of IP better than the NL pitchers I think are better, except for Peavy. I am amenable to reason, so Hamels is now officially my #9 in the NL for the season. Well, #9 before today's outing.
Oops.
I do. As I said, I like Hamels lots; next five, I could be convinced. But his 2008 has not been better than those put up thus far by Haren, Lincecum (7 IP, 13 K tonight..), Webb (7 IP, 8 K..), Volquez or Billingsley thus far. And that was true before tonight.
Derek Lowe tonight pitched eight innings, no runs, tons of ground balls. Ground balls matter. Webb and Lowe get them. Hamels doesn't. Now, Lowe hasn't had the ERA, and since this is about who's had the best season, again I can listen to reason and make Hamels #8.
Well, #8 before tonight.
Is that what's broken with it? Realized WL% is a terrible way to adjust for strength of schedule. If VORP adjusts using some normalized hitter-performance prediction, then maybe it's just IP and ERA. If ERA adjusts using a team's actual record, however.. ick.
Maybe VORP isn't a good metric. Anyone have a link to how it's actually calculated? The BP glossary is.. spare.
COUNTING
PRC:
Haren 85
Lincecum 83
Hamels 75
Sheets 73
Webb 71
Volquez 71
Dempster 70
Zambrano 70
Cook 67
Hudson 66
VORP
Haren 45.6
Lincecum 43.4
Zambrano 39.9
Sheets 39.5
Hudson 37.3
Cook 36.8
Hamels 36.4 (Ouch...one bad outing can do that much damage?)
Dempster 36.4
Volquez 34.6
Webb 34.2
RATE:
ERA+
Haren 178
Volquez 162
Lincecum 154
Zambrano 152
Sheets 151
Dempster 151
Webb 145
Peavy 141
Hamels 137
Jurrgens 136
FIP
Haren 2.82
Lincecum 2.89
Webb 3.06
Billingsley 3.30
Sheets 3.36
Jurrgens 3.39
Lowe 3.41
Volquez 3.48
Peavy 3.56
Cain 3.58
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