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Saturday, July 14, 2012

Hayes: Juan Pierre succeeds at baseball the old-fashioned way

Cybergenics be damned…there ain’t no supplement for Juan Pierre!

At 5-11 and 175 chiseled pounds, Pierre has 17 home runs in 13 seasons. Between steroids, human growth hormones and sabermatricians, Pierre had no chance.

“I was right through the whole steroid age. I was there at its height,” Pierre said - though he realizes purists with calculators consider him a dinosaur, too.

“With all the computers, the cybergenics [sabermetrics], whatever they do, I think I rate the lowest possible in those things. The things I do don’t show up in box scores. Sacrifice bunting doesn’t make any sense to do. They don’t look at the guy going first to third or taking that extra bag.”

In fact, Pierre’s sabermetric WAR-wins above replacement, the gold standard of metrics - stands at 1.4 this season.

Which, according to one pocket-protected website, rates him as a “scrub.”

If Pierre has supplanted Shane Victorino as the Phillies’ No. 2 hitter, what does that make the Flyin’ Hawaiian? Toe cheese?

Repoz Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:16 AM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, sabermetrics

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   1. Bhaakon Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:56 AM (#4182312)
By ignoring caught stealing entirely?
   2. TomH Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:30 AM (#4182315)
someone inform Mr. Pierre that there ARE metrics for first-to-third. If there other "things he does" he'd like us to measure, he is free to suggest them.

oh, and does "old-fashioned" mean pre-1920? It sure don't mean the 50s and 60s when the best players were obviously the power hitters.
   3. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:50 AM (#4182319)
And yes, the FH is Toe Cheese this year.

I like the word cybergenics very much.

EDIT: And cybergenics would be very scientific -- as it would be Pierre reviewed.
   4. I Am Not a Number Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:52 AM (#4182320)
Has someone restocked the fish barrel?
   5. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:54 AM (#4182321)
In fact, Pierre’s sabermetric WAR-wins above replacement, the gold standard of metrics - stands at 1.4 this season.

Conveniently leaving out that that would be for a full season, no? Extrapolated to a full season, that has to come out well above average...

Edit: Of course in his last full season, he had a total of -0.8 WAR, which according to whatever reference the author was using probably rates at AAA.
   6. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:28 AM (#4182327)
Conveniently leaving out that that would be for a full season, no? Extrapolated to a full season, that has to come out well above average...


That's 1.4 WAR to date, isn't it? The problem isn't that it's prorated, the problem is that it's a small sample.

In Pierre's defense, this year he's 20/23 in SB, he's getting on base at a clip significantly above the league average, and he's a solid flycatcher even if he can't throw at all. He's not the cause of the Phillies' woes. I'll also say that though I realize he's not been a terribly valuable player, I've really come to like Juan Pierre. I'd like it if the game changed in a way that made his skill set (contact, speed, durability) a very valuable one.

By ignoring caught stealing entirely?


I didn't realize this, but Pierre's is tied with Lou Brock and Maury Wills for the number of times leading the league in times caught stealing (with 7). Some of this is because in Pierre's era not many people ran, and Pierre racked up huge numbers of plate appearances because of his durability. But he's also just gotten caught a lot.

BTW, if you ignore the positional (and personality) differences then Pierre is basically a middle class man's Maury Wills:

Name       PA     H  HR    Slash      OPS+   SB   CS
Pierre   7773  2094  17  296
/345/363   85   574  208
Wills    8306  2134  20  281
/330/331   88   586  193 


Pierre strikes out less, which is pretty notable given the era differences. Pierre's walked 112 fewer times, but has 81 more HBP. Wait until he dies, then put him in the hall of fame!
   7. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:48 AM (#4182332)
I like watching Slappy Pierre play and also respect the fact that he has limited and specific value. That's allowed, right?
   8. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:56 AM (#4182334)
That's 1.4 WAR to date, isn't it?

Yeah, that's the point. Comparing that to a reference chart that is made for full season values doesn't really work.
   9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 14, 2012 at 09:05 AM (#4182336)
I should also add to the chorus that Pierre has been a very useful player this year. If you can accept his flaws, he does the things he does do well. And his head is always in the game.
   10. just plain joe Posted: July 14, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4182347)
At 5-11 and 175 chiseled pounds, Pierre has 17 home runs in 13 seasons. Between steroids, human growth hormones and sabermatricians, Pierre had no chance.


No chance at what, Pierre is roughly the same height/weight as Hank Aaron. He played at least some of his career in Denver where the ball travels very well. I know that size doesn't necessarily lead to homers but it isn't as if Pierre could be mistaken for a 7th grader or something. Good for him that he has had a long career on slapping the ball over the infield but to say that his size has prevented him from being a power hitter is somewhat misleading.
   11. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: July 14, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4182348)
Yeah, that's the point. Comparing that to a reference chart that is made for full season values doesn't really work.


Gotcha. I can't read on weekend mornings.

And his head is always in the game.


I really appreciated this when he played for the White Sox. He's also pretty good at admitting his screw ups when he makes them (other than the innumerable caught stealings). And his coaches and other players seem to respect him. Again, if offensive levels keep trending towards high Ks and a low run environment, the Juan Pierres of the world will be really useful players.
   12. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 14, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4182349)
No chance at what, Pierre is roughly the same height/weight as Hank Aaron.

Or Willie Mays, or bigger than Jimmy Winn.
   13. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 14, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4182350)
The Reds have been rumored to be interested in Philadelphia’s Juan Pierre and San Diego’s Mark Kotsay. Jocketty won’t comment on active trade talks. But both make sense.

Pierre would give the Reds another option at leadoff. He’s hitting .307 with a .344 on-base with 20 steals in 23 attempts.


Please, no.
   14. madvillain Posted: July 14, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4182362)

I should also add to the chorus that Pierre has been a very useful player this year. If you can accept his flaws, he does the things he does do well. And his head is always in the game.


Juan is an easy guy to root for. I always enjoyed him when he was on the White Sox, it was Guillen's insistence on playing him every day and giving him the green light to get cs every other time he got on base that infuriated me.
   15. madvillain Posted: July 14, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4182363)
A 1.4 WAR at around the halfway part is not a "scrub" at all. It's a useful regular.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4182365)
I've always loved watching Juan Pierre, especially when he was at the height of his powers and causing legitimate havoc against the Yankees in the World Series. Since that time he's basically been a solid bench player that has started almost every game.
   17. SoSH U at work Posted: July 14, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4182366)
A 1.4 WAR at around the halfway part is not a "scrub" at all. It's a useful regular.


I wouldn't classify a guy who puts up a full-season 1.4 as a scrub. While I suppose it's just defintional, to me a scrub is pretty much synonymous with replacement player.

Like Zeth, I've always enjoyed watching Pierre even while understanding he has limited value. OTOH, it's kind of funny that over the course of his career, he's put up one more point of WAR (in two extra seasons) than Adam Dunn.

   18. Randy Jones Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4182368)
At 5-11 and 175 chiseled pounds, Pierre has 17 home runs in 13 seasons. Between steroids, human growth hormones and sabermatricians, Pierre had no chance.

“I was right through the whole steroid age. I was there at its height,” Pierre said - though he realizes purists with calculators consider him a dinosaur, too.


So, does anyone else find it odd that sportswriters assume steroids are only helpful for big power hitters? The first time I can remember hearing about steroids and sports was the 1988 Olympics. Ben Johnson, that hulking brute weightlifter...Wait, what's that? He was a sprinter? So, you're saying that maybe steroids can help you run faster?
   19. madvillain Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4182369)
OTOH, it's kind of funny that over the course of his career, he's put up one more point of WAR (in two extra seasons) than Adam Dunn.


I have some slight beef with the WAR positional adjustment that allows that to happen, but in his heyday, Juan was a solid starter, no doubt.
   20. CrosbyBird Posted: July 14, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4182384)
Juan Pierre, Hall of Famer?

He's 34 years old and he's got 2094 hits and 574 SB. It doesn't seem impossible for him to end his career with over 3000 hits and 700 stolen bases. I think we'd see some heads explode.
   21. Horror Posted: July 14, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4182385)
So, does anyone else find it odd that sportswriters assume steroids are only helpful for big power hitters


If by odd you mean infuriating.

The first player to test positive for steroids? Alex Sanchez.
   22. tfbg9 Posted: July 14, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4182387)
Ever see a picture of a juiced Ben Johnson coming out of the blocks? The guy was pretty thickly muscled, like a halfback, IIRC.
   23. phredbird Posted: July 14, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4182393)
Pierre would give the Reds another option at leadoff. He’s hitting .307 with a .344 on-base with 20 steals in 23 attempts.


please please please yes ...

i hate to rain on the revisionist love for slappy, but good god i hated him. i honestly can't remember a dodger game i went to that he played in where he didn't somehow get on base and then somehow run us out of an inning. i'm sure it's just some kind of irrational thing, he couldn't have done that every time, but it sure seemed like it.
   24. SoSH U at work Posted: July 14, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4182403)

i hate to rain on the revisionist love for slappy, but good god i hated him.


It ain't revisionist.
   25. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: July 14, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4182422)
Pierre would give the Reds another option at leadoff. He’s hitting .307 with a .344 on-base with 20 steals in 23 attempts.

please please please yes ...


I'm not sure why you would want the Reds to get Pierre phredbird. You do realize that Reds' leadoff hitters this year have hit .202/.245/.316? First batter of the game is hitting .220/.256/.341? Reds fans are starting to refer to Votto as Tobe (Two Outs, Bases Empty). Pierre would be a huge upgrade over Stubbs (down to .212/.282/.361, bwar of 0.2)

edit: The Reds could desperately use another left-handed batter. Votto and Bruce are the only two on the 25 man roster, and Willie Freakin' Harris is the only other lefty available in AAA. Pierre has a .374 ob% against righties. You could make him the lefty part of a platoon with Stubbs (slg% .500 against lefties) and balance out the lineup.

edit edit: Tobe comes from the following saying that happens in the first inning of practically every Reds game (two outs, bases empty, Votto coming to the plate).
   26. Horror Posted: July 14, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4182428)
edit edit: Tobe comes from the following saying that happens in the first inning of practically every Reds game (two outs, bases empty, Votto coming to the plate).


This is exactly why your best hitter should bat second, not third.
   27. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 14, 2012 at 03:03 PM (#4182440)
And why it's better, if you aren't going to bat him second, to bat him fourth.
   28. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4182451)
This is exactly why your best hitter should bat second, not third.

They're not booing, they're saying OOBE
   29. Srul Itza Posted: July 14, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4182467)
He's awful whiny for a guy who's made over $50 million in salary while averaging around 1.1 WAR per season.
   30. Sweatpants Posted: July 14, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4182473)
Tobe
JOEY
VOTTO
   31. vivaelpujols Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4182539)
This is possibly the dumbest thing I have ever read.

WAR totally looks at running first to third - see BsR on FanGraphs. Sabermetrics is also going to value Pierre much more than a traditional outlook which will see a corner outfielder with zero power and dismiss him out of hand.

Also as it's been mentioned 1.4 WAR over 74 games is absolutely not scrub level.

I hate Juan Pierre now. Whiny, no armed sack of crap.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4182554)
Anytime Pierre hits 300+ he has value. When he hits 270-something he doesn't. And of course when he could do the former as a decent CF, he was definitely worth having.

I have a totally untested pet theory that guys like Pierre (and Francoeur to an extent) aren't affected much by changes in the run-scoring environment or ballpark. Pierre is a high-contact slap hitter and he'd hit 296/345/363 in 1973, 1983, 1993, etc. in Coors or Petco. That works a lot better in low-offense environments of course.
   33. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:40 PM (#4182557)
I have a totally untested pet theory that guys like Pierre (and Francoeur to an extent) aren't affected much by changes in the run-scoring environment or ballpark. Pierre is a high-contact slap hitter and he'd hit 296/345/363 in 1973, 1983, 1993, etc. in Coors or Petco.

He's a career 340/385/411 hitter in Coors Field.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:42 PM (#4182559)
Ever see a picture of a juiced Ben Johnson coming out of the blocks? The guy was pretty thickly muscled, like a halfback, IIRC.

And the author refers to Pierre as "chiseled."

To many, one of the alleged evils of steroid usage was that it put great pressure on everybody to use -- especially those fringe players who might have a career with steroids or not without them. Pierre's skillset is right in that fringey area -- as was Alex Sanchez's. And Pierre's last good season was 2004, when "real testing" began.

Just another example of how easy it is to play the "gotta be the roids" game.
   35. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4182563)
Ever see a picture of a juiced Ben Johnson coming out of the blocks? The guy was pretty thickly muscled, like a halfback, IIRC.

He was 5' 10" and weighed 165 lbs. in his olympic days.
   36. guelphdad Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4182591)
He was 5' 10" and weighed 165 lbs. in his Olympic days.

And chiseled...
   37. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4182610)
Pierre is a high-contact slap hitter and he'd hit 296/345/363 in 1973, 1983, 1993, etc. in Coors or Petco.


He's a career 340/385/411 hitter in Coors Field.


The humidor doesn't bother a guy that doesn't even like hitting it in the air.
   38. phredbird Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4182633)
I'm not sure why you would want the Reds to get Pierre phredbird.


because i don't think what he's doing is sustainable, and even what he's doing has limited value. there's alot of reasons the phillies stink this year besides juan, but its not like he's remotely capable of putting a team on his back and carrying it anywhere but basement-bound.

as i said, some of my dislike for him is irrational. i'll own it. him and andruw jones.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4182782)
Oh Dan, when will you get over this fact fetish?

I will note that his ISO in Coors is essentially the same as his career ISO. And he hit 312/369/392 in Florida.

In 2001, Pierre hit 334/391/408 at home and 321/365/421 on the road. (Cherrypick? Moi?)

OK, maybe even the great Juan Pierre can't overcome Coors' effect on BA, only ISO.
   40. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:14 AM (#4182866)
Revisionist is right. Pierre sucks.
   41. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 06:54 AM (#4182869)
He earns it?

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