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1. Derb Posted: January 25, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4045388)I love when teams sign new players and these sorts of forecasts are thrown around. Fielder has had one 50+ homer season, and it was exactly 50 homers. It was also 5 years ago. Over the past 4 seasons he has averaged 38 HR per 162 games, which coincidentally is exactly what he did last year.
But I guess it's true what they say, once a 50-hr hitter, always a 50-hr hitter.
If one can assume that Comercia is a pitcher's park and Miller Park is hitter-friendly, that's certainly true.
I'm pretty sure they are not done dealing. Delmon Young for Martin Prado makes a ton of sense for the Tigers, who could play Prado at 2B and Cabrera at DH, LF, and/or 3B with strikeout pitchers like Verlander/Scherzer on the mound. If Cabrera can play passably in left, they have an intimidating core (Fielder, Cabrera, Verlander, Martinez, Avila) locked up through at least 2014. If not, they can deal one of Cabrera/Martinez after this season when Martinez returns.
Reminds me of when Vernon Wells got his big contract
It's his 50-home-run-bat
He's worked it in (he's worked it in) to look like that . . .
Isn't this the same that was being said last year when St. Louis signed Berkman to play RF?
I really think the Tigers expect 35 to 40 HRs and 100+RBI from The Prince; anything more is a bonus..
Interesting defensive team for sure.
The ghost of Billy Loes nods knowingly.
Fans rightfully bemoan Brandon Inge's bat, but I think a lot of them have been spoiled when it comes to what to expect from a competent third baseman. The offense is going to look a lot stronger, but I wonder how many runs the addition of Prince is really going to add to the team once you figure in the runs the corner infielders are sure to give up in 2012.
Yes it was, and then Berkman dropped weight (or so it appeared) and played a competent right field.
I think they'll be fine. Cabrera and Fielder will both be within a step of competent at their positions and they get Inge's 51 OPS+ out of there and replace it with something like a 150. It's a big step up. It would be one thing if Inge were a decent hitter and plus fielder but he's an offensive black hole.
Which really makes the equation the step up from Inge to Fielder on offense (they already had Cabrera's bat) and the step down from Inge to Cabrera at 3B defense. Fielder has averaged 38 runs/season on offense the past 5 years(hitting, running, ROE); Inge has averaged -13. Inge has been worth 7 runs/year for fielding; I can't imagine Cabrera will be 45 runs worse than average at 3b (which would make this a wash), but if he's even 10 runs worse than average (which is a distinct possibility), it makes the $24M/yr investment look iffy.
I think this is wildly optimistic.
Fielder is a bad 1B, and at 275 lbs, ain't getting any better. The consensus of the defensive ratings seem to have him at -8-10 runs.
Cabrera is a below avg. 1B, looks to be about -5. He last played any significant time at 3B in 2007, and was lousy, ~-15. He's 5 years older and weighs 240 lbs.
I think it would be a minor miracle for Cabrera to be -20 at 3B. I think they give up on it by May, like they gave up in 2008.
They should just leave Cabrera at 1B, and DH Prince.
I'll take the offense. This is the american league, you need to score a lot to win.
The problem is, the team gives away too many outs, the pitchers get exhausted as the season wears on and the team crashes and burns in August.
I vote for these guys.
This is still an entertainment business, most (casual) fans probably find offense a little more entertaining, even though I don't (of course I'm hardcore).
#28, Milwaukee in 2012 was bad at defense. Making the final 4 is pretty successful considering they are the smallest market in the game. Defense probably did them in during the NLCS however....although pitching was probably even worse (even if you factor out pile the errors).
The 2003 Yankees link is a good one.
I'm guessing Cabrera/Prince will share DH for the first few months and whomever hits better as DH will "win" that gig. Even though the deciding factor should be whomever plays D better should win 1b.
The more useful example would be "You know who worries a lot about defense? Tampa Bay." Bringing up Seattle is like saying that trying to improve the offense by signing power hitting free agents is a poor bet because the Hit Show was such a fiasco. It's not the strategy that's flawed, it's the people trying to implement it. The Rays have placed a high priority on defense the last four years and reaped the benefits (Fangraphs has them with the greatest difference between FIP and ERA over that time period as well as being way ahead of everyone else in UZR) while also scoring the sixth most runs despite playing in a pitcher's park. Unless you have an elite offense, which the Tigers certainly don't even with Fielder, you better be able to prevent runs pretty well to win 90+ games. The 2003 Yankees won 101 because although their offense was merely very good they also had tremendous pitching (7th in K% and HR/9, lowest BB% in MLB) that did a lot to neutralize their awful defense. The Tigers pitching quality is dependent on a few guys, the rest are highly questionable.
This incorrectly assumes that Jim Leyland has a clue about lineup construction.
Well, that's exactly what I said. If they're so bad one has to DH all the time, then the 3B D is likely worsr than -20. I said Cabrera will be so bad he has to be taken off third by May.
And if he has to DH instead of playing third, you're basically getting the -20 from the positional adjustment to his value.
The more useful example would be "You know who worries a lot about defense? Tampa Bay."
And since those early to mid 2000's teams, the Yankees have changed their tune as well. They now have among the best OF defenses in the majors b/c they're willing to play a completely non-traditional LF, who generates much of his value through D and baserunning. They also brought in Russell Martin, b/c of his D. Really, Jeter is the only below avg. defender at this point, at least when ARod is not hindered by injury.
Boy, I am not sure it makes much for the Braves though. They'd have to seriously think Prado was toast to take on more salary and lose positional flexibility.
Yep; Prado's bat looks better at 2B than LF, but I'd still take him every day of the week over Young. Prado's career slash stats and OPS+ are all better than Young's.
Which is compounding the error of the signing, b/c Fielder is a -10 1B. He should be the DH.
They probably could've improved the team as much by signing Edwin Jackson and a generic veteran DH.
Jackson and Carlos Pena would've added more than Fielder.
Adam Dunn just missed 50 home runs last year. No, wait, not home runs- RBI. Actually, he wasn't all that close to 50 RBI. His batting average was waaaay over .050 though.
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