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Friday, September 08, 2017

Heyman | 7 Potential Landing Spots In Giancarlo Stanton Trade

If the Marlins are truly committed to slashing payroll to the core, Stanton has to go. As Heyman mentions, trading him after this season maximizes the get. How many teams, though, would be willing to eat the salary *and* kick back quality prospects?

As for Heyman’s thoughts on potential landing spots…if the Marlins are looking to slash payroll, I don’t see them taking Ellsbury back.

4. YANKEES
The Yankees did make a call, and while there hasn’t been a lot of internal buzz about them, they definitely could swing it. They could include Jacoby Ellsbury as a way to offset the deal (though of course the Marlins would want prospects back, too, and the Yankees have those). However, the Yankees are believed to have real interest and intention even in going below the tax threshold this winter to set themselves up nicely for the next winter, and a big deal like this would probably kill that possibility. They also don’t have a great need for a power-hitting right fielder since they have the second-best one in Aaron Judge.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 08, 2017 at 08:56 AM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giancarlo stanton, marlins

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   1. Man o' Schwar Posted: September 08, 2017 at 11:54 AM (#5528490)
Schwarber and Heyward for Stanton.
   2. Lassus Posted: September 08, 2017 at 11:57 AM (#5528504)
They also don’t have a great need for a power-hitting right fielder since they have the second-best one in Aaron Judge.

Heh.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 08, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5528571)
Heh.

Whatever you think about Judge, the Yankees have lots of OF. Adding Stanton would also likely take them out of the running for Harper or Machado. I see no reason they'd give up talent to pay Stanton $300M when Machado will probably cost less than that, and not require any prospects be traded.
   4. The Good Face Posted: September 08, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5528595)
Whatever you think about Judge, the Yankees have lots of OF. Adding Stanton would also likely take them out of the running for Harper or Machado. I see no reason they'd give up talent to pay Stanton $300M when Machado will probably cost less than that, and not require any prospects be traded.


Especially since Machado has rebounded nicely from his slow start is closing in on another ~5 WAR season. I'm thinking he's more likely to be the Yankees FA target than Harper. At this point teams must be starting to worry a bit about Harper's durability; through 6 full seasons he's broken 600 PAs only twice, and that's as a very young man.
   5. Lassus Posted: September 08, 2017 at 01:51 PM (#5528613)
I can concede it was a bit of over-snark in consideration of Judge's slump.
   6. Rally Posted: September 08, 2017 at 02:05 PM (#5528640)
I see no reason they'd give up talent to pay Stanton $300M when Machado will probably cost less than that, and not require any prospects be traded.


Robinson Cano got 240 million though he was 31 the first year after he signed the contract. Machado will be 26 in the first year after he is eligible for free agency, and that's coming 5 years after Cano's deal. If he doesn't get significantly more than Cano that would probably be deflation, not just the lack of baseball inflation.
   7. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 08, 2017 at 02:18 PM (#5528663)
I could see Machado getting a $300mil deal. Both him and Harper.
   8. The Good Face Posted: September 08, 2017 at 02:45 PM (#5528696)
I could see Machado getting a $300mil deal. Both him and Harper.


A huge deal for Harper scares me. What's a guy who couldn't stay healthy in his early 20s going to age like? But then I think about Larry Walker, who consistently missed time his entire career but was still a damn fine player into his mid 30s. How much would Larry Walker's age 26 through 36 seasons be worth today?
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 08, 2017 at 03:09 PM (#5528722)
Robinson Cano got 240 million though he was 31 the first year after he signed the contract. Machado will be 26 in the first year after he is eligible for free agency, and that's coming 5 years after Cano's deal. If he doesn't get significantly more than Cano that would probably be deflation, not just the lack of baseball inflation.

Yes, but defense still doesn't get paid like offense. Cane went into FA averaging 142 OPS+ over his last 4 seasons. Machado will probably be around 125-130.
   10. Bote Man Posted: September 08, 2017 at 03:18 PM (#5528743)
Adding Stanton would also likely take them out of the running for Harper or Machado.

TRAYDE FOR STANTON!!11!!
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: September 08, 2017 at 03:27 PM (#5528754)
Is Machado as a SS a thing of the past? In recent years, he would start there during some of Hardy's injuries. But that hasn't happened at all this year.
   12. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: September 08, 2017 at 03:34 PM (#5528767)
through 6 full seasons he's broken 600 PAs only twice, and that's as a very young man.

He was an end-of-April callup in 2012 and had 681 PA between Syracuse and Washington.

And let's not act like he keeps coming down with muscle pulls or something -- he had bursitis after crashing into a wall, tore a ligament snagging his thumb on a slide, and suffered a bone bruise slipping on a waterlogged base. None of those injuries are going to ail him chronically; none of the circumstances suggest he's got a weak constitution that makes him incapable of surviving the rigors of a baseball season; and given he seems to have curtailed his Reiser-esque tendencies, they're not really predictive of future injuries.
   13. Tim D Posted: September 08, 2017 at 04:03 PM (#5528798)
Giants all the way. They don't have much to trade but if Stanton is dealt it will be to SF.
   14. The Good Face Posted: September 08, 2017 at 04:57 PM (#5528851)
And let's not act like he keeps coming down with muscle pulls or something -- he had bursitis after crashing into a wall, tore a ligament snagging his thumb on a slide, and suffered a bone bruise slipping on a waterlogged base. None of those injuries are going to ail him chronically; none of the circumstances suggest he's got a weak constitution that makes him incapable of surviving the rigors of a baseball season; and given he seems to have curtailed his Reiser-esque tendencies, they're not really predictive of future injuries.


Health is a tool and Harper doesn't appear to have it. Fluke injuries that occur with regularity stop being flukes and merely become injuries. But it's not the end of the world either. Larry Walker missed ~30 games every year and still managed to be an outstanding player; I'd love to have Larry Walker's age 26 through 36 seasons on my favorite team.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: September 08, 2017 at 05:30 PM (#5528876)
Past DL time is a pretty good predictor of future DL time although of course you'd like to add injury type to that model. But there are lots of exceptions. Molitor couldn't stay healthy in his 20s then had over 7000 PAs from 31-41 -- that's almost Walker's entire career. McGwire had trouble staying health, especially in his late 20s, and it eventually led to an early retirement ... but he managed a string of health from 32-36 and put up 29 WAR and, despite just 178 games over ages 29-31, put up 50+ WAR from ages 26-36 while averaging less than 500 PA a year. Griffey missed 20 games at 22 then nearly a full season across 24-25 and was a health disaster in his 30s ... still put up 42 WAR from 26-36.

I'll be stunned if Harper doesn't get at least $35 AAV (assuming a solid 2018). Cabrera's already at $30 and maxes at $32, Trout's buyout put him at $34, Greinke's at $34 and hits $35 in 2020, it's a few years away but Stanton maxes at $32. It's more a question of when and how many opt-outs, how much is deferred, 10 or 11 or 12 years.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: September 08, 2017 at 05:45 PM (#5528883)
On the article, it's bland and uninformative. It's basically a list of 6 of the top 7-8 markets (Cubs and Mets get a pass) plus the Cards. There's no serious consideration of what goes back.

The Ellsbury mention probably does have a bit of relevance though. Almost any team acquiring Stanton is going to want to get out of some money, other directly from the Marlins or the Marlins taking back some dead weight. Whether they like it or not, it will be nearly impossible for the Marlins to avoid a payroll near $100 M because of the contracts Heyman mentions and Stanton (or whatever they have to eat in return). Trading Stanton should be more about long-term payroll control ... although of course by the time you hit that long-term, he'll be the only commitment they have and will be able to afford him.

Lowering short-term payroll to the supposed $55 M range will require trading everybody except the dead weight, including (nearly) all of the arb-eligible players. The roster would be Chen, Prado, a DL'd Volquez, Gordon and 22 pre-arb players. I did re-evaluate Gordon the other day and he should be tradeable, probably even at 3/$39 but certainly after eating a few million. He's not a good hitter but everything else is above-average -- 11 WAR, 4 WAA over the last 4 seasons despite missing almost half of a season. I don't know who's looking for a 2B for the next 3 years but they should be able to squeeze in Gordeon at 3/$30 without much concern.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: September 09, 2017 at 09:43 PM (#5529148)
I can see the Cardinals pursuing Stanton, trade Fowler, and throw in Sierra, Alcantara and Mejia/Diaz or some other middle infield prospect. Of course that trade doesn't really save the Marlins that much annually(as Stanton is only getting 25mil and Fowler is 16 mil, but shorter term.) I imagine in this trade scenario, Fowler will be part of a three way trade that moves him to a third team and nets another prospect or two for the Marlins.

As Alcantara, Sierra and Diaz (or other choice prospects from the organization) would be worth the savings for the Marlins(in this theoretical world where they are trading Stanton to drop their salary to 80mil or so)

You could replace Sierra with Jose Martinez if you want an older but ml ready player, but a 30 year old coming off his first season isn't really something a building team would think about, except as filler. Bader would probably be preferred, and could be had instead of Sierra. (among other mix and matches)
   18. You're a clown, RMc! I'm tired of it! Posted: September 10, 2017 at 11:46 AM (#5529270)
The Tigers could make a deal, if they had any players left.
   19. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 10, 2017 at 12:00 PM (#5529275)
The Tigers could make a deal, if they had any players left.

The Tigers should go after a guy like JD Martinez. He is a good hitter, and a free agent after this year.
   20. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 10, 2017 at 03:03 PM (#5529317)
There is no truth to the idea that traumatic injuries pose no future injury risk. Traumatic injuries turn into chronic ones all the time. That much I can tell you from experience. People need to stop trotting that out.
   21. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2017 at 03:35 PM (#5529332)
There is no truth to the idea that traumatic injuries pose no future injury risk. Traumatic injuries turn into chronic ones all the time. That much I can tell you from experience. People need to stop trotting that out.


So we take your anecdotal word as fact? Not sure why we would do that. I don't think anyone doubts that long term a traumatic injury might have an affect later on in their life, but considering that we are dealing with a window generally of 10-15 years, there just doesn't seem to be much evidence to support that a traumatic injury affects a professional ball player long term....there are of course some notable exceptions, Dizzy Dean being one of them, but he never returned to form after his injury, so that seems like something that would be argued as a chronic injury anyway.

If a player returns to form, then there is no reason to think that his past injury is going to downgrade his performance. The important part is whether or not they returned to form, if not, then it's a chronic injury that didn't heal properly.
   22. BDC Posted: September 10, 2017 at 05:48 PM (#5529403)
There is no truth to the idea that traumatic injuries pose no future injury risk. Traumatic injuries turn into chronic ones all the time. That much I can tell you from experience

Personal experience, granted, but I'd say with young baseball players the actual historical record is very mixed. Manny Machado himself, much-discussed in this thread, lost half a season to a traumatic injury and a few years later, is apparently right back where he was headed. Joe Morgan and Rod Carew are exhibits A and B for how a very major injury early in a position player's career can mean very little in the long run.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2017 at 06:22 PM (#5529410)
The Tigers should go after a guy like JD Martinez. He is a good hitter, and a free agent after this year.


Wasn't that widely reported as a probability when they made the trade?
   24. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 10, 2017 at 09:04 PM (#5529456)
So we take your anecdotal word as fact?


You could take the word of medical professionals as fact. An ankle, once sprained, is highly prone to re-spraining. Tendons and bones don't just break and grow back perfect. Any doctor you go see when you hurt yourself will tell you that.

Or you could take the fact that past DL time is a good predictor of future DL time. That may be about style of play or reinjury or both. But it is what it is.
   25. cardsfanboy Posted: September 10, 2017 at 09:25 PM (#5529462)

You could take the word of medical professionals as fact. An ankle, once sprained, is highly prone to re-spraining.

True, but when you are dealing with 23-35 year olds, people who have a better tendency to be able to ignore those nagging injuries, it's not the same thing as looking at 40 year olds. I don't think data that deals with the general populace is the same data as dealing with highly motivated athletes.

Or you could take the fact that past DL time is a good predictor of future DL time. That may be about style of play or reinjury or both. But it is what it is.

I've not seen conclusive data that says that. Outside of "nagging" injuries such as back or heel type of injuries,that says "being hit in the face is more likely to lead to future injuries down the road."

   26. Walt Davis Posted: September 10, 2017 at 10:50 PM (#5529474)
An ankle, once sprained, is highly prone to re-spraining. Tendons and bones don't just break and grow back perfect.

Presumably so but those are the sorts of injuries we would generally worry about becoming chronic in MLB because players are relying on their ankles and tendons all the time and performing acts that put those parts under strain (esp pitchers and tendons) and at risk (sliding). I don't think I've ever seen anybody claim "oh, he wrecked his knee but there's no reason to expect a long-term impact from that."

But when the original injury is both a fluke occurrence (e.g. from colliding with another player) and not a body part that is generally at risk in baseball (the thumb, the shoulder for non-pitchers) then, once the player has established that they have recovered, what is there to worry about? Specifically what is there to worry about over the next 5-10 years?

Sure, a thumb injury from sliding or a shoulder injury from running into a wall could have affected Harper's hitting. But he seems to be back in form. Sure, probably his thumb is more susceptible to re-injury than another player's never-injured thumb, but Harper's still got to put it at risk to suffer that injury and it rarely will be. They might have also affected his throwing or his willingness to run into walls or otherwise harmed his defense but who really cares? Possibly the original thumb injury has started the process of an ongoing deterioration in the structural integrity of his thumb and he'll start missing a few games here or there before collapsing as a hitter at age 33 ... or will just collapse as a hitter at age 33 because it happens sometimes.

I've not seen conclusive data that says that.

The biggest, obvious, gaping gap in all of sabermetrics and one that would be easily closed. Obviously they deliver us endless bits of data we don't deserve and do so for absolutely free, but I do not understand why b-r doesn't track (at a minimum) DL days. The old Baseball Encyclopedia did ... and it took Steve Treder probably no more than 45 minutes to demonstrate pretty conclusively in a thread here that past DL days are a good predictor of future DL days (and he didn't even use pitchers).** The question really is whether one can separate the chronic (i.e. Larry Walker is gonna miss 20-50 games a year) from the flukes.

** I remember this because I made the same "this seems obvious but I've never seen anybody actually demonstrate it" comment so he demonstrated it.
   27. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: September 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM (#5529683)
Who would you rather have in RF going forward - Bryce Harper or Mookie Betts, with the very real possibility that Betts continues to average 20+ more games per season?
   28. DCA Posted: September 11, 2017 at 12:57 PM (#5529691)
I think you take Harper for the upside. Betts probably ends up being the better signing, though. More durable and probably 1/3 cheaper, as long as offense continues to pay more than defense and baserunning.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 11, 2017 at 01:04 PM (#5529697)
Who would you rather have in RF going forward - Bryce Harper or Mookie Betts, with the very real possibility that Betts continues to average 20+ more games per season?

You have to believe an awful lot in those defensive numbers to pick Betts.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: September 11, 2017 at 01:15 PM (#5529713)
Who would you rather have in RF going forward - Bryce Harper or Mookie Betts, with the very real possibility that Betts continues to average 20+ more games per season?


I don't know if anyone has ever put a number to health as skill factor, but I'd be quite surprised if the best guess is that Betts will continue to play 20+ extra games per year.

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