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Friday, June 16, 2017

Heyman | Could Marlins Consider Trading Stanton?

A $100 million offset? If that’s what’s needed, he will never be traded.

One rival GM says flatly that the record contracts means they are surely “stuck with it,” but several others suggest that a $100-million (or so) offset could be appropriate and make a trade work. One rival GM also suggested it’s possible the Marlins could even try to pair a much more cost-efficient player, such as J.T. Realmuto or Christian Yelich or Marcell Ozuna, with Stanton, to make accepting his contract more palatable for a taker.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 16, 2017 at 06:39 AM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giancarlo stanton, marlins

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   1. Jeff Francoeur's OPS Posted: June 16, 2017 at 08:57 AM (#5477287)
I dunno, I don't see him lasting eleven (!) more seasons in Miami.
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 08:59 AM (#5477292)
If a headline is a yes-or-no question, the answer is no.
   3. TDF, FCL Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:06 AM (#5477299)
If a headline is a yes-or-no question, the answer is no.
As someone who's spent his entire adult life in retail, the answer is yes. Every single player on every single roster should be available, even Mike Trout.

The question isn't "Should (or could) X be traded?"; the question is "Is it a good deal for us?" Even a generational talent like Trout or Kershaw, for the right package, could and should be traded if the Angels/Dodgers think they're getting enough value back.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:22 AM (#5477313)
As someone who's spent his entire adult life in retail, the answer is yes. Every single player on every single roster should be available, even Mike Trout.

The question isn't "Should (or could) X be traded?"; the question is "Is it a good deal for us?" Even a generational talent like Trout or Kershaw, for the right package, could and should be traded if the Angels/Dodgers think they're getting enough value back.


But the reality is that when truly great players (HoF/multiple MVP types) are traded with more than 1/2 a season of control remaining, the return is never fair.

Just off the top of my head, every team that traded for Rickey Henderson got a steal, the Tigers got a steal on Cabrera, the Yankees got a steal on ARod (1st contract) and Clemens, the Reds got a steal on Seaver, the Orioles got a steal on Frank Robinson, and so on and so on as far back in time as you want to go.

Basically, if you can acquire an elite player, do it. If you have one, never trade them until you absolutely have to.

The only question is if Stanton is that kind of player. His inability to stay healthy may mean he's not.
   5. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:36 AM (#5477326)
But the reality is that when truly great players (HoF/multiple MVP types) are traded with more than 1/2 a season of control remaining, the return is never fair.


The Mariners won the Griffey trade.

   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:41 AM (#5477329)
The Mariners won the Griffey trade.

But that was a pending FA trade, wasn't it?
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:45 AM (#5477330)
I wish baseball reference would list dates of mult-year extensions being signed in the transactions part of a player's page. I see players' transactions lists that include being drafted by a team, and then a jump to being granted free agency like 10-15 years later, making it glaring that something is missing in between.
   8. ReggieThomasLives Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:47 AM (#5477331)
The marlins thought they were geniuses by backloading the option years, and now they are $100M underwater on the contract.
   9. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:48 AM (#5477334)
But that was a pending FA trade, wasn't it?


I don't remember when exactly Griffey was going to become a FA (though he was traded in February, so it was more than a half-year), but it doesn't really matter to your overall point. The M's got a multi-player haul for a superstar, and one of those players (Cameron) played better in Seattle (and they were able to turn a few other of the pieces into value) than Griffey played during a long run in Cincinnati.

I'm sure there are other HoF/MVP types who were traded for parts, and they stopped being HoF types, and thus the acquiring team lost the deal.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:50 AM (#5477337)
The marlins thought they were geniuses by backloading the option years, and now they are $100M underwater on the contract.

It's always smart for a team to backload a contract. It's free debt financing. If you could you would pay the league minimum for every year but the last.
   11. McCoy Posted: June 16, 2017 at 10:38 AM (#5477400)
I'd say Loria thought he was smart for doing it and his front office were smart for doing it as well. Loria figured he'd either sell the team before the contract hurt him, got new revenue streams to make the raise not hurt him, and or Stanton would opt out. The FO got to keep a stud player on the team helping them add wins to the team's total and figured they'd have a new job by the time it hurts the Marlins.
   12. McCoy Posted: June 16, 2017 at 10:48 AM (#5477410)
Dodgers got Gary Sheffield and a boatload of filler for 3/4 of a season of Piazza.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 10:53 AM (#5477416)
Dodgers got Gary Sheffield and a boatload of filler for 3/4 of a season of Piazza.

Yeah, but there was an elite player on both sides of the deal, so that sort of cancels out.
   14. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:02 AM (#5477422)
I'm sure there are other HoF/MVP types who were traded for parts, and they stopped being HoF types, and thus the acquiring team lost the deal.


Jim Fregosi for Nolan Ryan. I realize Ryan is the HOFer in this example, but at the time, Fregosi was a 6 time AS and Ryan was a 24 YO who could throw 100 MPH but was walking over 6 batters per 9 IP.
   15. TDF, FCL Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:03 AM (#5477423)
But the reality is that when truly great players (HoF/multiple MVP types) are traded with more than 1/2 a season of control remaining, the return is never fair.

Just off the top of my head, every team that traded for Rickey Henderson got a steal, the Tigers got a steal on Cabrera, the Yankees got a steal on ARod (1st contract) and Clemens, the Reds got a steal on Seaver, the Orioles got a steal on Frank Robinson, and so on and so on as far back in time as you want to go.
Except:

I don't think the A's or Yankees regretted trading Henderson (his other 2 trades, he wasn't anything special anymore)
The Marlins didn't regret trading Cabrera at all; they just wanted to dump his salary.
The Rangers didn't regret trading ARod at all; they just wanted to dump his salary.
The Blue Jays didn't regret Clemens; they wanted to get rid of him after he demanded a trade (they had an oral agreement he could demand a trade).
Tom Seaver fits your exception - he was traded mid-year in a contract dispute.
FRob played during the days of the 1 year contract.

EDIT: Which is why you have to look beyond just the talent - sometimes a trade happens despite the talent involved, not because of it - the talent is only part of the equation.
   16. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:03 AM (#5477424)
But that was a pending FA trade, wasn't it?

No, IIRC Griffey wanted out of Seattle and demanded a trade, preferably close to his home in Orlando, and then turned around and said the only team he would accept a trade to was Cincinnati (I think after the Mariners had already worked out a deal with Atlanta?). Given that their hands were essentially tied, the M's did a great job in negotiating that deal. Of course, it helped that Griffey pretty much completely broke down after that.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:05 AM (#5477430)
I'm sure there are other HoF/MVP types who were traded for parts, and they stopped being HoF types, and thus the acquiring team lost the deal.


Roberto Alomar to the Mets?
   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:07 AM (#5477434)
It's always smart for a team to backload a contract. It's free debt financing. If you could you would pay the league minimum for every year but the last.


You're assuming there is no implied interest there. A 5/$80 mil contract may go 10 mil, 12 mil, 14 mil, 16 mil, 28 mil, but if payed out equally it may go 15, 15, 15, 15, 15 for a 5/$75
   19. Nasty Nate Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:07 AM (#5477435)
But that was a pending FA trade, wasn't it?
No, IIRC Griffey wanted out of Seattle and demanded a trade, preferably close to his home in Orlando, and then turned around and said the only team he would accept a trade to was Cincinnati (I think after the Mariners had already worked out a deal with Atlanta?). Given that their hands were essentially tied, the M's did a great job in negotiating that deal. Of course, it helped that Griffey pretty much completely broke down after that.
None of those things contradict the claim that he was a pending FA.
   20. McCoy Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:08 AM (#5477437)

Yeah, but there was an elite player on both sides of the deal, so that sort of cancels out.


Well, the Marlins got a 74 OPS+ catcher that couldn't throw out a runner. . .
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:10 AM (#5477440)
None of those things contradict the claim that he was a pending FA.

True - I should add that I don't remember the trade being discussed at the time as if impending free agency had anything to do with it.
   22. Nasty Nate Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:10 AM (#5477441)
I don't think the A's or Yankees regretted trading Henderson
Why not?
   23. TDF, FCL Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:16 AM (#5477451)
I don't think the A's or Yankees regretted trading Henderson.

Why not?
Wasn't he seen as not worth the trouble?

EDIT: Henderson was traded mid-year by NYY in the final year of his contract EDITEDIT: because the Yankees didn't think they could resign him.

Reading further, Martin lobbied to get Henderson once he was in NY, so I was wrong there. Though Oakland did get Jose Rijo in the package for him.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5477458)
You're assuming there is no implied interest there. A 5/$80 mil contract may go 10 mil, 12 mil, 14 mil, 16 mil, 28 mil, but if payed out equally it may go 15, 15, 15, 15, 15 for a 5/$75

There's still almost always an arbitrage for the team. An MLB team's cost of capital (including debt and equity) is always going to be much, much higher than the risk-free rate of return a player can get in the market (since MLB contracts are backstopped by the leage deferrals are effectively risk free for the player).

Say the team gives the player an implied 4% interest rate on the deferrals. That's 300 bps higher than the player could earn in tresuries, and probably 400-500 bps lower than the team's cost of capital.
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:21 AM (#5477462)
Wasn't he seen as not worth the trouble?

That was a miscalculation by the teams then. We was an ~7 WAR player in those years. Those guys are always worth the trouble.
   26. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:28 AM (#5477471)
Say the team gives the player an implied 4% interest rate on the deferrals. That's 300 bps higher than the player could earn in tresuries, and probably 400-500 bps lower than the team's cost of capital.


OK, but that's different from free debt financing. It's discounted debt financing.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:33 AM (#5477478)
OK, but that's different from free debt financing. It's discounted debt financing.

It could be free, or it could be discounted. It really depends on the negotiation and the player.

It's free money in either case.
   28. Bug Selig Posted: June 16, 2017 at 12:16 PM (#5477532)
Why does Scott Boras care?
   29. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 16, 2017 at 12:45 PM (#5477564)
The article is entirely speculation about the possibility of some future hypothetical trade - there's not even a Mystery Team on the horizon. I doubt new ownership is going to dump what I assume is the fans favorite player as its first order of business. Wouldn't be smart when you're trying to get a boost by claiming to be unlike Loria.
   30. McCoy Posted: June 16, 2017 at 01:01 PM (#5477573)
Griffey would have been a FA after the season.
   31. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 16, 2017 at 01:27 PM (#5477588)
Welp, I stand corrected then. I guess I misremembered.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: June 16, 2017 at 07:42 PM (#5477910)
But this season so far, Stanton is back to being Stanton with a 149 OPS+. There is the fragility issue obviously but from 2011-16, he was a 6-WAR player per 650 PA and he's on pace for about 5.5 WAR this year. He's still only 27. Over the next 6 years (ages 28-33), he's owed only $10 more than Votto's ages 34-40. He is owed $21 M less than Miggy's age 35-40 seasons. Harper and Trout are going to blow this contract out of the water and Machado will almost certainly make at least as much (he's having a bad year so let's see if he bounces back).

Over the next 3 years, he makes $10 M less than Cespedes ... or if you prefer, his age 31-34 seasons (starting 2021) cost only $12 M more than Cespedes 31-34. Cespedes gets hurt all the time too.

He's owed 10/$295 so they will have to eat some money if they want to trade him now but not $100 M. Stanton on a 10/$200 contract covering ages 28-37 would be a steal.
   33. ReggieThomasLives Posted: June 16, 2017 at 09:52 PM (#5477952)
I'd say Loria thought he was smart for doing it and his front office were smart for doing it as well. Loria figured he'd either sell the team before the contract hurt him, got new revenue streams to make the raise not hurt him, and or Stanton would opt out.


The problem is the option almost could never be exercised. It's been reported Lauria thought it brilliant cause he'd get Stanton cheap for a few years and then he'd opt out. But even if Stanton hadn't gotten hurt, it was pretty unlikely teams would line up to pay him $32M a year for his mid to late thirties. Now potential buyers are looking at that contract and saying "ugh".
   34. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: June 16, 2017 at 10:23 PM (#5477966)
Hunter Pence (owed another $18.5M in 2018 plus prorated of that amount for rest of 2017) and Matt Cain (prorated $21M for rest of 2017 plus $7.5M buyout of 2018 option) for Stanton and Yelich. No need for any money to exchange hands.
   35. You're a clown, RMc! I'm tired of it! Posted: June 17, 2017 at 08:51 AM (#5478018)
I dunno, I don't see him lasting eleven (!) more seasons in Miami.

I don't see the Marlins lasting eleven more seasons in Miami.

Actually, with global warming, I don't see the Miami lasting eleven more seasons in Miami.
   36. base ball chick Posted: June 17, 2017 at 01:33 PM (#5478070)
16. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 16, 2017 at 11:03 AM (#5477424)

But that was a pending FA trade, wasn't it?

No, IIRC Griffey wanted out of Seattle and demanded a trade, preferably close to his home in Orlando, and then turned around and said the only team he would accept a trade to was Cincinnati (I think after the Mariners had already worked out a deal with Atlanta?). Given that their hands were essentially tied, the M's did a great job in negotiating that deal. Of course, it helped that Griffey pretty much completely broke down after that.


don't youse guys remember this?
griffey was gonna be a FA at the end of the year and he didn't want to stay in seattle. and yes the braves HAD worked out the trade and yes he DID insist on going to ONLY cincy.

he wanted to be traded and right away. he was very clear about it. then we started hearing about his family being threatened or something and that was why he wanted to be traded

of course, it doesn't explain why not braves and why cincy, but there you go
   37. Bote Man Posted: June 17, 2017 at 01:55 PM (#5478083)
Capt. Leatherpants aka Jim Bowden on XM yesterday pointed out that it is highly likely that nobody will be traded while the sale of the team is still pending. He cited examples of previous situations where a perfect deal was brought to ownership, yet they nixed it. FWIW

The three talking heads also agreed that the Marlins are not going to be sold any time soon.
   38. Howie Menckel Posted: June 17, 2017 at 10:56 PM (#5478204)
I dunno, I don't see him lasting eleven (!) more seasons in Miami.

I don't see the Marlins lasting eleven more seasons in Miami.

Actually, with global warming, I don't see the Miami lasting eleven more seasons in Miami.
........

that's pretty well played right there...
   39. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2017 at 01:42 AM (#5478220)
why not braves and why cincy

Cincy is his hometown.

it was pretty unlikely teams would line up to pay him $32M a year for his mid to late thirties

The contract runs through age 37, not his late 30s. Basically all "big" FA contracts/extensions run through age 36 (mostly) or 37 (occasionally)** ... the exceptions being guys like Pujols, Cabrera and Cano who (would have) hit FA in their 30s and Votto.

But sure, nobody wants to be paying him $32 M for ages 35-37 ... but they will be acquiring him for what he produces ages 28-34. The question is how much total production do they expect out of him and how much cash can they extract from the Marlins.

** This might finally be changing. None of Heyward, Upton, Fowler or Cespedes was able to get signed through 36. Chris Davis was but it's not clear why Baltimore felt they had to add that 7th year.
   40. Walt Davis Posted: June 18, 2017 at 02:19 AM (#5478221)
Stanton is a tough guy to comp so this list is somewhat cherry-picked from a larger list of high-ISO, post-integration hitters ... mainly the highest ISO guys but leaving out the Bonds, Mantle, Mays, etc. crew. Basically this is a list of guys with an ISO around 240 or better from ages 23-27 who aren't inner-circle types (and two who are because of position), played at Coors.

Looking at them from age 28-34 by Rbat and oWAR (sorted by oWAR). Stanton obviously won't match the oWAR of guys like Schmidt or Mathews because of positional differences and probably not the Rbat totals for Sosa/Mac because of context but these seem reasonable hitting comps to me.

Schmidt 268 44
Mathews 186 38
Sosa 308 38
McGwire 322 37
Reggie 238 35
Delgado 273 35
Kiner 149 23
McGriff 145 20
Teixeira 124 20
Rice 117 19
Colavito 121 19
Glaus 71 15
Maris 56 12
Straw 50 9

That's 14 names. An outcome in line with the top 6 would essentially break even on 10/$295 with 3 years left on the contract. If he's traded with some cash, that helps allay the risk some. There is though a big drop down to the 2nd tier and even if he remains average for 35-37, that justifies only $200-250 total depending on the inflation rate. The last three are the injury comps essentially.

Making some adjustments for Schmidt/Mathews, I get an average of around 25 oWAR for ages 28-34. He's been an above-average RF so far in his career and is pretty athletic for a big guy so there probably won't be big deductions from that for defense.

Who knows what he does from ages 35-37? He could be Jose Bautista (1 WAR from 35-36 so far), he could be Beltran (6 WAR 35-37), he could be Holliday (fragile, 2.3 WAR 35-37, hitting well this year though) ... or he could be completely done like Maris and Straw. On average, adjusting for the potential that he's finished by 35, I doubt the average would come out to more than 1-2 WAR. The most promising and realistic comps from that group would be McGriff (8 WAR) and Tex (3.2 in 1.5 seasons).

I'll admit I would have guessed he'd age a bit better than that. If 25 WAR is the expectation for the rest of his career then 10/$200 is clearly reasonable if probably low with inflation; $250 at the top end (a 5% inflation rate would put $/WAR over that period around $10 per).

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