If Damon isn't even going to respond to 1 yr/$6 million at this point, deferred cash or no, then I'm having a hard time seeing how he's going to get a job at all.

Yankee fans haven't fully internalized this yet, but Granderson/Gardner/Swisher not only isn't a particularly good outfield, it has the chance to be a dreadful outfield.

Yeah, but who doesn't expect it to be upgraded next off season? Yanks can sign Jayson Werth to play right field and Manny to LF/DH.

I'm surprised Heyman is accepting that the $6MM offer was made to Damon.

Also, how Gardney is comparable to Melky 2009 (Melky 09 probably hit better and certainly had a better arm, but Gardner can play outstanding defense and is a much better baserunner), and Swisher 2010 and 2009 are fairly comparable.

That leaves Granderson 2010 versus Damon 2009. Damon 2009 was almost certainly a better hitter than what Granderson 2010 will produce, but Granderson 2010 will be a better defender and perhaps even a better baserunner (WS heroics notwithstanding).

I don't really see the drop off.

Granderson/Gardner/Swisher not only isn't a particularly good outfield, it has the chance to be a dreadful outfield.

I'm a Sox fan, and this is heartwarming. Until I think about that freaking infield...

I thought the Yankees had signed all of the good players and everybody else was going to have to field a starting nine of local high school boys. Don't they have Matt Holliday stashed at AAA? That's what I was led to believe.

I don't really see the drop off.

That's just because you haven't internalized it yet.

Yankees might be an a market for a new 3B instead of a Left fielder. Anything to save his legs.

Yankee fans haven't fully internalized this yet, but Granderson/Gardner/Swisher not only isn't a particularly good outfield, it has the chance to be a dreadful outfield.

What makes you think that we don't know this? Although I do admit that the infield, the pitching, and a healthy Nick Johnson** might give the Yanks an outside shot at the playoffs.

**written with fingers, toes, arms and legs crossed

Cashman, one of baseball’s best dealmakers

Did no one else find this funny? This is the same GM who said he would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out, and then turned around 3 weeks later and signed A-Rod to a huge contract by bidding against himself.

You must be mistaken. A-Rod came crawling back to the Yankees, begging for a job.

What makes you think that we don't know this?

Again:
Swisher replaces Swisher.
Gardner/Winn replaces Gardner/Cabrera.
Granderson replaces Damon. In 2009 Granderson, in a bad season for him, was more valuable than Damon, in a season that no one expected him to put up at his age, and no one in their right mind would expect him to repeat a year later.

Where's the dropoff?

Yankee fans haven't fully internalized this yet, but Granderson/Gardner/Swisher not only isn't a particularly good outfield, it has the chance to be a dreadful outfield.

This is simply silly. Although I suppose ANY outfield has the chance to be dreadful given enough injuries/bad luck, Swisher and Granderson both project to be above average players, while Gardner is in the general vicinity of average.

"Did no one else find this funny? This is the same GM who said he would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out, and then turned around 3 weeks later and signed A-Rod to a huge contract by bidding against himself."

That was all Hankenstein. Don't lay that one in Cashman.

Hank even took credit for it during the World Series celebration, basically saying that everyone said he was stupid for handing A-Rod the deal, and now look...

It still is a really bad contract.

And as far as Cashman being a great dealmaker, I'd give him his due.

I certainly think the Justice deal in 2000 was a sage move, as there is no way they win the World Series without him. The old man wanted Sosa, which would have meant parting ways with Johnson and Soriano (which would have been a lot to give up at the time.)

The Abreu/Lidle deal was great, albeit a salary dump for Philly. Swisher was a steal. Vasquez and Granderson, I think will prove to be strong.

He's not perfect, of course, i.e. Jeff Weaver and Kevin Brown.

Swisher 2010 and 2009 are fairly comparable.

Swisher had the highest OPS of his career in 2009, 126 points better than in 2008. It's reasonable to expect some degree of dropoff from him.

Again:
Swisher replaces Swisher.
Gardner/Winn replaces Gardner/Cabrera.
Granderson replaces Damon. In 2009 Granderson, in a bad season for him, was more valuable than Damon, in a season that no one expected him to put up at his age, and no one in their right mind would expect him to repeat a year later.

Where's the dropoff?

"dreadful outfield" is silly, but comparing the 2010 Yankee outfield to what actually happened in 2009:

ZIPs predicts Swisher to put up an OPS+ of 113, down from his career-high 129 last year (he's a career 115 hitter)
Winn (35 years old, career OPS+ of 99, OPS+ in 2009 of 75 in the NL) replaces Cabrera (OPS+ in 2009 of 99), which is likely an offensive downgrade and can't possibly be a defensive upgrade, can it?
Fangraphs had Granderson more valuable than Damon in 2009, but AROM has Damon more valuable 4.4 - 3.2. And in both cases, Granderson's gaining one win of value because he played CF. If he moves to LF, he potentially loses that (depending on how much better his defense gets) and if he stays in CF, then the same is true of Gardner.

Objectively speaking, compared to the other 29 teams, the Yankees outfield is fine. But compared to their infield - which includes 2 Hall-of-Famers and 2 other All-Stars in their prime - or compared to what you'd expect to be able to get with a $200 million payroll, yeah, it kind of pales by comparison.

This is simply silly. Although I suppose ANY outfield has the chance to be dreadful given enough injuries/bad luck, Swisher and Granderson both project to be above average players, while Gardner is in the general vicinity of average.

If Granderson hits like he did in 2009 and Swisher hits like he did in 2008, then that's a pretty terrible outfield. Yeah, both of them should be expected to be better than that, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

Cashman, one of baseball’s best dealmakers

Did no one else find this funny? This is the same GM who said he would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out, and then turned around 3 weeks later and signed A-Rod to a huge contract by bidding against himself.

I think there's an important point of clarification here. Cashman's record as a trading GM is approaching to excellent - see the Swisher deal last year, the acquisitions of Granderson and Vazquez this year. A constant complaint of mine is that it seems like clubs just love to give useful players to the Yankees for nothing, and I think that's got to be a credit to Cashman.

At the same time, one of Cashman's modes of public negotiation is to say things that are obviously false in the press. I am sure that Cashman didn't really mean it when he gave ARod the ultimatum - he knew that ARod at $300M would help the Yankees win pennants, and he wasn't going to let him go. But he was willing to say something silly in public in the hopes of negotiating a more favorable deal. I don't know if it worked, but it's part of the way Cashman operates. I gain enjoyment from Yankee fans who believe everything Cashman says, even when obviously false, and then search out complex explanations, either through word games or Kremlinology (that in no way gets Cashman off the hook), to defend him. But sadly the base truth of the matter is that Cashman appears to be quite good at negotiations.

And as far as Cashman being a great dealmaker, I'd give him his due. ...

The Abreu/Lidle deal was great, albeit a salary dump for Philly. Swisher was a steal. Vasquez and Granderson, I think will prove to be strong.

He's not perfect, of course, i.e. Jeff Weaver and Kevin Brown.

Yes Chashmen has been great at trades, esp here in the last 3-4 years. The article was referring to Cashmen as a dealmaker when he was floating a modest (compared to initial offseason expectations from Boras) $6m contract to Damon and basically saying "take it or leave it". I was just pointing out when signing or resigning FA, Cashmen is far from a dealmaker.

which is likely an offensive downgrade and can't possibly be a defensive upgrade, can it?

Actually, I think it almost certainly is, albeit a small one.

If he moves to LF, he potentially loses that (depending on how much better his defense gets) and if he stays in CF, then the same is true of Gardner.

One or the other of them gets the CF value bonus, so how does this negatively impact their combined value?

compared to their infield ... it kind of pales by comparison.

I didn't realize that the Yankees outfield would be competing against the Yankees IF. Seriously, while what you write is true, it's not a criticism that would be made of any other team.

If Granderson hits like he did in 2009 and Swisher hits like he did in 2008, then that's a pretty terrible outfield.

If every veteran hitter in MLB hits like they did in their worst previous season, it will be an unprecedentedly great year for pitchers. Why do Granderson's 2009 and Swisher's 2008 tell us more about what we should expect from them than the totality of their careers?

Why do Granderson's 2009 and Swisher's 2008 tell us more about what we should expect from them than the totality of their careers?

They don't. But he didn't say that it would *probably* be a dreadful outfield, just that it has a chance to be. And considering that both guys had such weak seasons so recently, it's not a chance that can be completely written off.

A constant complaint of mine is that it seems like clubs just love to give useful players to the Yankees for nothing

OTOH, teams just hate to trade star players to the Yankees unless they get three times what anybody else is offering, so it kind of evens out.

one of Cashman's modes of public negotiation is to say things that are obviously false in the press

Yeah, nobody else ever does that.

Seriously, while what you write is true, it's not a criticism that would be made of any other team.

I was just answering #12's quesiton of where the dropoff is. I wasn't endorsing #2's comment. I think Swisher 2010 projects as a dropoff from Swisher 2009, Winn projects as a dropoff from Cabrera, and Granderson potentially projects as a dropoff from Damon 2009 (even if not from Damon 2010). On the other hand, Gardner projects to improve, I would assume, given his age.

I think a lot of people mentally pencilled Holliday in to the Yankees' outfield in November, and when it didn't happen, suddenly see a shortage of hitting from Granderson/Gardner/Swisher(+Winn) (in any combination). But as a combination of solid offense and very good defense, under $20m total cost, and with all three starters locked up for another 2-3 years minimum, it's pretty much what New York needs if they're serious about their budget.

one of Cashman's modes of public negotiation is to say things that are obviously false in the press

Yeah, nobody else ever does that.

To be clear, I have no real problem with it. I don't think it reflects particularly poorly on anyone involved, and I don't think it's any significant mark against Cashman's negotiating skills. It is, though, funny when Yankee fans defend his false claims.

I think Swisher 2010 projects as a dropoff from Swisher 2009

Because he threw up a stinker in 2008? He's put up OPS+ of 125, 126, and 129 in the other three of the last four years. It seems a little disingenuous to pretend that 2009 was some kind of fluke career year that came out of nowhere and can't be repeated. Since I don't expect the Yankees to ask him to hitt leadoff and play CF, I'm pretty confident that he'll beat his ZiPS unless he's injured.

Winn projects as a dropoff from Cabrera

Of course, were Cabrera still a Yankee, everyone would be penciling him in to repeat his 2008 instead of his 2009. Anyway, Winn won't be getting 540 PA. So the real question is whether Gardner's 2010 can replace Cabrera's 2009 and Winn's 2010 can replace Gardner's 2009.

I think a lot of people mentally pencilled Holliday in to the Yankees' outfield in November, and when it didn't happen, suddenly see a shortage of hitting...

Yeah, I think this is pretty much it.

To be clear, I have no real problem with it.

Yeah, I know. You've been very clear on this point. I was just throwing out a little general snark WRT the truthfulness of the rest of the universe of people involved in negotiating baseball trades and contracts.

No, I think people penciled in Holliday OR Damon -- surely the Yanks would sign one or the other. I think that the general viewpoint is that there is in fact a big difference between Damon, viewed as an elite leadoff man and marginal star, and Gardner, viewed as a guy who is a very weak hitter by LF standards, bringing only baserunning to the table.

Honestly, I tend to agree with this viewpoint myself, but I guess it'll end up mostly depending on whether age starts dragging Damon down. As you all know, of course, that has not happened yet...

Oh, all the Yankees need is to finish a strong second in their division, and then they can stomp through the playoffs. Reduce those expectations, beey-atch!

Yankee fans haven't fully internalized this yet, but Granderson/Gardner/Swisher not only isn't a particularly good outfield, it has the chance to be a dreadful outfield.


I think Swisher 2010 projects as a dropoff from Swisher 2009, Winn projects as a dropoff from Cabrera, and Granderson potentially projects as a dropoff from Damon 2009 (even if not from Damon 2010).

The Red Sox, with whom the Yanks must keep pace with switched from Jason Bay (projected 4.0 WAR in 2010 per Fangraphs) for Mike Cameron (projected 1.4 WAR in 2010) and they get praise across the media and the board because of how AWESOME the defense is going to be.

I think the Yanks made a clear upgrade with the switch from Johnny Damon (projected 3.2 WAR in 2010) for Curtis Granderson (projected 4.4 WAR in 2010), why is the reaction more lukewarm? Yeah, Granderson might hit like its 2009 AND Swisher might hit like its 2008. But JD Drew might hit like its 2007 (unless that third year makes it magically impossible, he's projected to drop off notably, to 2.6 WAR next year), or Ellsbury might hit likes its 2008 or Cameron might hit like its 2009 or BJ Upton might hit like 2009 or Carl Crawford might hit like its 2008. There might be some perfect OF out there with no players who have had a down year the last three out there that is a sure bet, I can't think of one but I missed part of the offseason, so my memory isn't to be relied upon. But even if that is the case, I don't see an outfield in the division that doesn't have as many question marks as the Yankee outfield and that's really all that matters.

You guys are missing the point.

And the point is: #### the Yankees.

Objectively speaking, compared to the other 29 teams, the Yankees outfield is fine. But compared to their infield - which includes 2 Hall-of-Famers and 2 other All-Stars in their prime - or compared to what you'd expect to be able to get with a $200 million payroll, yeah, it kind of pales by comparison.

which is why, the 5 guys on the infield cost a wooping 95M next year. AKA more than half of the teams total 25 man payroll . and the outfield's 3 top projected start costs south of 13M, even throwining in Winn, it cost less than 15M.


for a 15M budget OF, they're doing fine. they're 3 top starting guys combine to make less than what Boston is paying JD Drew. and their top 4 guys combine to make less than what the Mets are paying Jason Bay.

the general viewpoint is that there is in fact a big difference between Damon, viewed as an elite leadoff man and marginal star, and Gardner, viewed as a guy who is a very weak hitter by LF standards, bringing only baserunning to the table

But the premise is wrong -- Gardner is not replacing Damon; Granderson is replacing Damon, Gardner is replacing Cabrera, and Winn is replacing Gardner.

the general viewpoint is that there is in fact a big difference between Damon, viewed as an elite leadoff man and marginal star, and Gardner, viewed as a guy who is a very weak hitter by LF standards, bringing only baserunning to the table

But the premise is wrong -- Gardner is not replacing Damon; Granderson is replacing Damon, Gardner is replacing Cabrera, and Winn is replacing Gardner.

But the fact remains that while Damon had an excellent year in the new Stadium and shows no signs that he's about to fall off the cliff, Granderson at 28 has slipped badly over the past two years, and given his dreadful numbers against LHP there's no guarantee that he's ever going to be able to be much more than a platoon player. And since the idea is to put Granderson in LF, his defensive skills won't come into play as much as if he were to be in CF.

Look, from a long range POV, if Granderson's 2009 season was just a fluke, the Yanks made a smart move, maybe even a brilliant one. And perhaps this is little more than a bluff on Cashman's part to bring Damon back at the price the Yankees want. Maybe. And Damon's living in a dream world if he thinks that other teams with smaller budgets and less hitter-friendly parks are going to view him the way Boras is packaging him.

But if Granderson hits like he did last year, and the Yanks don't have a backup plan, that outfield could easily see a major dropoff. And that's what lots of Yankee fans are seeing. WAR projections are just that---projections.

The Red Sox, with whom the Yanks must keep pace with switched from Jason Bay (projected 4.0 WAR in 2010 per Fangraphs) for Mike Cameron (projected 1.4 WAR in 2010) and they get praise across the media and the board because of how AWESOME the defense is going to be.

Are you sure? It seems as though the media reaction to signing Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro instead of a big bat has been met with about as much enthusiasm as the closer by committee. The media guys who defend the Red Sox anyway are writing nice things about it, but the general consensus seems to range from this whole "good defense, no big bat" team is a novel little stunt to Ron Borges's incredible effort yesterday.

But if Granderson hits like he did last year, and the Yanks don't have a backup plan, that outfield could easily see a major dropoff. And that's what lots of Yankee fans are seeing. WAR projections are just that---projections.

And how likely is that? We criticize any GM who throws a lot of money at a guy coming off a career year because its very unlikely that a player is going to repeat those numbers. That's the same reason we shouldn't be overreacting to a guy having a "bad" year (in which he was MORE valuable than Johnny Damon per WAR), especially when he's going to be 29 this year. Projections may just be projections but they are a heck of a lot more likely to be accurate than simply looking at his last year and predicting a repeat, especially when that last year was something of an outlier.

I'll add, we went through this exact same thing with Swisher last year and that worked out fine. And Swisher isn't nearly the athlete or the defender that Granderson is. I'm really happy that the Yanks are taking a "chance" that Granderson will bounce back.

It seems as though the media reaction to signing Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro instead of a big bat has been met with about as much enthusiasm as the closer by committee. The media guys who defend the Red Sox anyway are writing nice things about it, but the general consensus seems to range from this whole "good defense, no big bat" team is a novel little stunt to Ron Borges's incredible effort yesterday.

I get my baseball news from here and Fangraphs, so I really on see the articles that get posted here and I believe they have been pretty positive in general.

the idea is to put Granderson in LF

It is? That's dumb.

But if Granderson hits like he did last year, and the Yanks don't have a backup plan, that outfield could easily see a major dropoff. And that's what lots of Yankee fans are seeing. WAR projections are just that---projections.

And how likely is that? We criticize any GM who throws a lot of money at a guy coming off a career year because its very unlikely that a player is going to repeat those numbers. That's the same reason we shouldn't be overreacting to a guy having a "bad" year (in which he was MORE valuable than Johnny Damon per WAR), especially when he's going to be 29 this year. Projections may just be projections but they are a heck of a lot more likely to be accurate than simply looking at his last year and predicting a repeat, especially when that last year was something of an outlier.

Damon's 2009 season actually wasn't all that much of an outlier, when you factor in his new park and his health. His health isn't guaranteed, but other than that there's no particular reason that he should fall off a cliff at 36.

You can also look at Granderson's 2009 year as a blip, but he hasn't been much against LHP for his entire career. And 30% of the Yanks' PA's last year were against lefties. That puts his team in the position of having to live with a terrible (.614 career OPS+) hitter for the equivalent of about 50 games, or finding a platoon replacement---and Randy Winn isn't much better against LHP than Granderson is.

And though you repeat those WAR figures, they add value for Granderson's CF position, which won't be the case in Yankee Stadium. But Granderson in CF and Damon in LF would maximize Granderson's defensive value.

My bottom line is that I'm not opposed to all the trades up to now, but I can't see not making Damon a solid one year offer---which granted, he may or may not accept. I'd much rather have Damon in LF, Granderson in CF and let Gardner fill in the cracks.

...WAR projections are just that---projections.

but

...if Granderson hits like he did last year...

is something else?

...Damon had an excellent year in the new Stadium...

Granderson has played his entire career in a park that kills LHB. Why shouldn't we expect NYS to help him as well? I'm seeing at least six fly ball outs at Comerica that would have left the park in the Bronx easily (and no opposite field HR that would have been outs in NY). Those six balls by themselves would take his OPS from .780 to .826. That's still not a match for Damon's 2009, but Damon's 2009 was a career best for a 35 year old player. What are the chances that he repeats it?

BTW, Granderson also had four doubles and four triples at Comerica that would have been HR at NYS. So why is all the focus on "They're in trouble if he hits like he did last year"? He's a 45 HR guy in Yankee Stadium if he hits like he did last year.

Now, I'm obviously not saying that he will actually have the same batted ball distribution in his 2010 home games that he had in his 2009 home games. But if we're going to act like 2009 tells us exactly who he is as a hitter, then what I wrote above makes every bit as much sense as the conclusion that he's a big offensive dropoff from Damon.

Granderson in CF and Damon in LF would maximize Granderson's defensive value.

But again, why does that matter on the team level? If Gardner is a better defensive CFer than Granderson, and they're both playing either way, then the team is better off with Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF, even if it decreases Granderson's WAR. Because after all, it increases Gardner's WAR. Besides, Damon's defense in left is still going to hurt you relative to Granderson's, so the logical thing is to figure that the defensive upgrade will at least partly offset the offensive downgrade.

Or to put it another way, Nick Johnson is the guy who's really replacing Damon in the Yankees' plans.

Or to put it another way, Nick Johnson is the guy who's really replacing Damon in the Yankees' plans.

No, Johnson is replacing Matsui as DH. But rather than keep this up for another 15 rounds I'll just say that I sure hope you're right about Granderson.

You're right that essentially, last year they had a non-star CF, and this year they will again have a non-star CF, just a different guy. But, I can tell you why it's at least perceived to be different.

- Melky had gotten starter-type PA for three years prior to last. So he was, for better or worse, an "established starter." Gardner has never been a MLB starter, and it's not like he did anything spectacular to claim the job last year (although he was ok).

- It would have been really stupid not to trade Melky for Vazquez. Not proceeding to acquire another starter-quality OF, on the other hand, seems like more of a self-inflicted thing.

- Replacing Melky last offseason would have been difficult, because you needed to find a CF-capable guy. (The only suggestion I remember hearing was to trade Melky himself for Cameron). With Granderson around, now you only need to find a LF-capable player, which is a lot easier.

Let's not forget the real stalking horse here: Carl Crawford. Cashman has already shown that he's not afraid to punt on a position (or take a low-upside player and hope for the best) if it leaves him flexibility to go after a FA player the next year (e.g. Santana/Sabathia)

No, Johnson is replacing Matsui as DH.

My point was that the Yankees were viewing Damon primarily as a DH. Hence, "Johnson is ... replacing Damon in the Yankees plans." I don't think Cashman ever had any thought of bringing back both Matsui and Damon.

I can tell you why it's at least perceived to be different.

I don't disagree about the perception. I think you, Saxman and others have that nailed. I'm talking about the reality.

I don't get this, at all.

Last year, Damon was worth 3.0 WAR in 599 PAs, Gardner 2.1 WAR in 425 PAs, Melky 1.6 WAR in 521 PAs, and Granderson 3.4 WAR in 710 PAs.

HTF is this a downgrade?

Even if Granderson repeats his shitty season and Damon repeats his great season, the Yankees have upgraded.

I think everyone is focusing on offense, and ignoring defense (which is strange for this site). In Granderson and Gardner the Yankees have two above average CF's playing left and CF vs. an average CF and a below average LF. That's probably worth 2 wins, right there.