Do the Yanks have much incentive to actually sign Pettitte? He has value, but it seems now their pitching is their strength and they have depth. Why not let him walk away. Matter of fact, turn away from the Cameron deal and use the $20 million toward Teixeira.

Whenever I heard the Kinks' "A Well-Respected Man," the ballplayer who always came to mind was Steve Garvey. That is, until we found out about his superlative procreative abilities...

If Pettitte has a three-year, $36 million offer from somebody, he should probably sign that yesterday.

Hope you like playing in Japan, Pettitte.

If he made it up, why then 3/36? Why not 2/21 or something that the Yankees might actually match? Incrementalism, Andy, is one of the keys to negotiation.

If Pettitte has a three-year, $36 million offer from somebody, he should probably sign that yesterday.

Actually, it doesn't seem so unreasonable. I don't like the third year, but there's not been any deterioration in his fundamentals the last few years, has there?

Granted he's 37 and has a somewhat balky elbow.

Yeah, he has some skills left, though even in this market it seems pricey.

Odd that it's pitched out there that he might sign a 3-year deal.

His two mantras have been "I may retire early because I want to be with my family" and "I know nothing about anything Clemens-related - until you show otherwise, and then I'll backpedal the minimal steps required."

The latter already has been problematic for him, and now here comes the former?

Nothing unusual about his strategy, but he seemed to want to build up a persona that is now further unraveling.

Not sure why he built in the first place, then, as the dichotomy can leave you further behind than when you started, PR-wise.

If he actually has this offer, he should sign it. Most likely it's BS, and hopefully the Yankees can still get him on a one-year deal.

The strict $10 mill/1 year does seem like a bit of an insult to Pettitte, he is obviously worth more than that in this market. They could at least bump it up to $12 mill, aka Silva territory. Still a bit undermarket most likely but at least not insulting.

Don't let the door hit you on your way out then, Andy.

I can't think of a bigger phony from a Yankee fan perspective since I have been a fan and that's since 1973.

I can't think of a bigger phony from a Yankee fan perspective since I have been a fan and that's since 1973.

Thanks for the insight, Holden.

Don't let the door hit you on your way out then, Andy.

If the Yankees really offered him one year, $10 mil, he probably has the same sentiment. That's a ridiculously low offer. And it's not like his demands have been so high the last couple of years.

Ray, do you read Andy's quotes in the past ever? The man is a pathetic ingrate.

If the Yankees really offered him one year, $10 mil, he probably has the same sentiment. That's a ridiculously low offer. And it's not like his demands have been so high the last couple of years.

Uh, no it isn't. Just looking at ERA+, Andy Pettitte(age 36) had a 98 ERA+ in 2008, so he was just below league average. Pitchers who preformed better this year include, but are not limited to Derek Lowe(age 35, 131 ERA+), Randy Johnson, (age 45, 117 ERA+), Tim Wakefield(age 41, 112 ERA+), Mike Mussina (age 39, 132 ERA+), Jamie Moyer(age 45, 118 ERA+). Among others.

To say that a $10 million/one year offer is an 'insult' is itself a bit ridiculous. Not to say that Pettitte can't turn it around, but the last three years, Pettitte produced a 106, 110, and 08 ERA+. Just what the hell is the Yankees suppose to do? Throw more money on a declining pitcher when they have two much younger options in Hughes and Kennedy?

Who could it be offering the 3 years? The only thing I can think of is that the Brewers are trying to bid him up out of revenge for the Yankees signing Sabathia, but that would be risky. I doubt Pettite would sign with Milwaukee, but if he did, look how well the Seahawks signing Nate Burleson out of revenge for the Vikings signing Steve Hutchinson worked out.

Hasn't Pettitte been whining for five years about not knowing how much longer he wants to play. Now he's going to sign a three year contract. How many years does Lowe want?

Mets, right?

If the Yankees really offered him one year, $10 mil, he probably has the same sentiment. That's a ridiculously low offer. And it's not like his demands have been so high the last couple of years.

Uh, no it isn't. Just looking at ERA+, Andy Pettitte(age 36) had a 98 ERA+ in 2008, so he was just below league average. Pitchers who preformed better this year include, but are not limited to Derek Lowe(age 35, 131 ERA+), Randy Johnson, (age 45, 117 ERA+), Tim Wakefield(age 41, 112 ERA+), Mike Mussina (age 39, 132 ERA+), Jamie Moyer(age 45, 118 ERA+). Among others.

I'm sorry, but did you just cite five pitchers, four of whom are much older than Pettitte, including one who is retired and another who is under contract with another club -- and claim that Pettitte isn't worth as much as them?

Pettitte has thrown 635 innings over the last three years, at ERA+s of 98, 110, and 106. His peripherals have held steady and his BABIP the last three years (.338, .325, .331) indicates that he's been unlucky on the ERA+ side.

Pettitte is 8 years younger than Johnson, and has been healthier than him over the last three years. Pettitte is 9 years younger than Moyer, and has pitched better than him (taking into account peripherals, not just ERA+) over the last three years. Pettitte is 5 years younger than Wakefield, and has been healthier than him over the last three years, while pitching with about the same effectiveness.

You cited one guy -- Lowe -- who is younger and better than Pettitte.

I quite literally have no idea why you cited Mussina, since he's retired, or Wakefield, since he's under contract. Wakefield's contract has nothing to do with what Pettitte is worth.

Moyer just signed a two-year deal for $13 million, and I haven't the foggiest clue why Pettitte -- nine years younger and a safer bet as a pitcher -- wouldn't make significantly more than that on the open market.

Just looking at ERA+, Andy Pettitte(age 36) had a 98 ERA+ in 2008, so he was just below league average.

Yes, if you just look at the stat that is least favorable to Pettitte, he doesn't look that great. Of course, it's not below average, it's well above average for a SP. It's also 7 points behind behind AJ Burnett's 105, and he received 5/82.5. Carlos Silva was coming off 103 and got 4/48. The 1/10 offer looks even more ridiculous when you account for Pettitte's durability and peripherals. 3/36 would be a very nice contract for the team offering it.

Hasn't Pettitte been whining for five years about not knowing how much longer he wants to play. Now he's going to sign a three year contract. How many years does Lowe want?

Signing a 3-year deal won't stop Pettitte from retiring if he wants to. This is cheaper and shorter than what Lowe is looking for and the two have similar pedigrees.

His two mantras have been "I may retire early because I want to be with my family" and "I know nothing about anything Clemens-related - until you show otherwise, and then I'll backpedal the minimal steps required."

The latter already has been problematic for him, and now here comes the former?

Again, this news doesn't in any way affect Pettitte's retirement plans. As for the latter, How has the latter become problematic for him? Everything that I read about Pettitte completely glosses over this. In fact, he's often pointed to as some sort of virtuous guy for "coming clean." He could admit to the Kennedy assassination and people would pat him on the back for giving the nation closure on the tragedy.

I cited pitchers who are either older or the same age as Pettitte, and who has performed better. If Pettitte is supposedly one of the better pitchers in the league, or at least above league average, then his performance hasn't shown it for the last 3 years. I'm just saying, compared to other pitchers of similar ability, Pettitte fails in actual performance, and for him to ask for a similar salary as when he got paid in 2008 when he hasn't produced as well as other pitchers such as Randy Johnson or Moyer who are years older, and yet pitched better than Pettitte has is somewhat foolhardy.

If contracts are partly based on past performance, then Pettitte has to know that he's looking at a pay cut no matter what. Anyway, my whole point in my previous post was that a $10 million/1 year offer wasn't 'insulting'. And he wouldn't find a better offer than that on the open market, but who the heck is going to pay a guy like Pettitte with a bad year he had in 2008 that kind of money?

Would you consider pitchers who are 8 and 9 years younger than Pettitte fair comps?

MC, I'm not certain it's the Mets. I could see any number of teams offering that deal to Pettitte. The HGH thing muddies the issue a bit, but he's gotten off pretty easy on that, so teams may not be worried. Texas? Boston? Toronto?

22. I consider pitchers who been in the league at least 10 years fair comps. Outside of Lowe, pitchers like Johnson, Moyer, and Wakefield are pitching on either 1 or 2 years deals, which is what Pettitte is likely looking at. How many pitchers 8 or 9 years younger than Pettitte are looking at one year deals? Most of them are still in the 3rd or 4th year of ML service time.

If Pettitte is supposedly one of the better pitchers in the league, or at least above league average, then his performance hasn't shown it for the last 3 years.

So, Pettitte's 2007 (22nd in the league in VORP) and 2006 (27th) are not evidence of above average performance? There are only 50 starting pitchers in baseball above league average, perhaps?

That's just an absurd standard.

Outside of Lowe, pitchers like Johnson, Moyer, and Wakefield are pitching on either 1 or 2 years deals, which is what Pettitte is likely looking at.

Outside of Lowe, the average age of those guys is 44. That is an absurd group of comps.

25. They're also retiring after one or two years like Pettitte is looking to. (Or not, who knows with him.) I'm just looking at what older pitchers would likely preform at in the next year or two. There aren't a lot of pitchers today on the FA market that are in their mid 30s, and looking to start. So I went to the next group who just happened to be over 44 years old.

Okay, name a similar pitcher to Pettitte(only in age, and looking for a 1-2 year deal, I guess) that is on the FA market or was this year? Chan Ho Park? He just signed with the Phillies for $2.5 million with another $2.5 million in incentives. Can you say that Pettitte will pitch better than Park will in 2009?

At this point, and within the context of the Yankees' likely 2009 rotation (Sabathia, Joba, Burnett and Wang), Pettitte is the likely fifth starter. Even allowing for sentiment, how much (and how long a contract) do you want to offer a fifth starter who's coming off the sort of year that Pettitte just had?

Pettitte's one of my favorite Yankee pitchers ever, and I wouldn't mind if they signed him, but I can't see that 3/36. Maybe 1/12 or 2/21. In this economy I don't see any other team topping that.

Can you say that Pettitte will pitch better than Park will in 2009?

Yes.

Can you say that Pettitte will pitch better than Park will in 2009?

I'd put a mortgage payment on it. If Pettitte pitches in 2009, he'll be better than Park. Hell, if he doesn't pitch in 2009, he's likely to be better than Park.

$10 says it's the Astros.

Hah.

Chan Ho Park? A 5th starter? This is getting ridiculous--it's not even worth debating if this is how you're going to go about it.

I just think the way he peers over his glove is kind of creepy. Like a psychotic Valentino.

If he somehow lands in Milwaukee I will wear garlic to his starts.

Gives me the heebie-jeebies that one....

Can you say that Pettitte will pitch better than Park will in 2009?

Yes, yes, a thousand times, yes.

32. You're right. Phillies are more likely to use Park as a long relief guy. Okay, who else in mid 30s to Pettitte will be a good comp? Somebody who in mid 30s, and has one or two years years left on his contract, or a FA pitcher who is seeking 1-2 years.

For the contract that Pettitte wants, he's not going to offer as much value as a pitcher who would command a smaller salary. Pettitte wants to be paid like 2008 never happened, but he doesn't have much leverage, and is trying to create it with vague rumors like the one posted in the topic. How does that make sense?

22. I consider pitchers who been in the league at least 10 years fair comps.

Age, age, age.

36. Okay, who is Pettitte's comps then?

Pettitte wants to be paid like 2008 never happened, but he doesn't have much leverage, and is trying to create it with vague rumors like the one posted in the topic.

What in the hell was so bad about his 2008? And why are you ignoring 2007 and 2006, age, and peripherals?

I just think the way he peers over his glove is kind of creepy. Like a psychotic Valentino.

If he somehow lands in Milwaukee I will wear garlic to his starts.

Gives me the heebie-jeebies that one....

I always figured the Shadow had a schnozz-and-fedora-tipped-over-his-face-look not entirely unlike Pettitte's.....

[38] That you can find dozens of pitchers who can post an league average ERA? That Darrell Rasner could have given you similar production to Pettitte for 1/16th of the price? That you also have Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy somewhere in the minors?

You have good points that Pettitte's been unlucky, that his BIBIPA aren't out of whack. He's also been an innings eater, and can maybe pitch effectively. But is your 5th man worth $16 million, $10 million when you have much cheaper options in Hughes and Kennedy? If all you're asking for Pettitte to be league average, then what's the point? If you're thinking he's going to be over league average, can you risk $16 million on Pettitte to be above league average? Would any team not named the Yankees bet on this?

[38] That you can find dozens of pitchers who can post an league average ERA?

Dozens who are available for 1 year, $10 million?

(And don't forget about the 200 innings.)

That Darrell Rasner could have given you similar production to Pettitte for 1/16th of the price?

Are you on drugs? Darrell Rasner is near replacement level. He has never been as good as Pettitte, or turned in a season anywhere close in value to what Pettitte did in his oh-so-horrible 2008.

Average pitchers who throw 200+ innings do not grow on trees. Average pitchers who throw 200+ innings have value. Andy Pettitte is a better than average pitcher, with good peripherals. Andy Pettitte is not 45 years old.

You're severely underrating him.

[41] You could find two or three pitchers over the course of the year that would equal to what Pettitte could do over a season in 2009.

And the thinking that average pitchers who throw 200+ innings should get over $10 million in average salaries is what lead idiots like Bavasi to give pitchers like Carlos Silva that bad contract. And yes, I know Silva is nowhere near the pitcher Pettitte historically was, but that's what your argument is. The Yankees don't need to offer Pettitte $10 million, $16 million, or even a contract. They'll be fine without, and Pettitte has to realize this or he's not going to be a Yankee in 2009.

You could find two or three pitchers over the course of the year that would equal to what Pettitte could do over a season in 2009.

But now you're gambling on three bottom-tier pitchers turning in average performances totaling 200 innings, instead of banking on one good pitcher, and you're using up three roster spots to do it.

Average is not replacement level.

I probably fall more on the Tripon side of this discussion than the Ray DiPerna / Darren side, but if there's something that is worth pointing out (IMO), is that the Yanks have valued talent somewhat oddly this off-season.

Examples: 1. They did not offer arbitration to Abreu, Pettitte or I-Rod, for fear of getting stuck with arbitration awards higher than what those players would make in the open market.

(granted, the world economy has a lot to do with this, but the fact of the matter is that none of the above 3 players were signed by other teams by December 1st, so the Yanks didn't want to risk it).

2. The Yanks probably overpaid for Burnett (I posted this over in the Burnett thread, but let's say $3 or $4MM more per year than Burnett's real value).

3. Tyler Kepner is reporting that the Yanks apparently aren't willing to do a straight-up Melky for Cameron deal because they don't think Cameron is really properly valued at $10MM for 2009 (though in fact, his real cost is $9.6M, since Melky would cost about $400K).

That may be a smoke screen to get the Brewers to take on some of Cameron's money or to take on Kei Igawa and some (all?) of his money, but still, surprising.

(Though the Yanks probably figure why rush it with regards to Cameron).

So while the Yanks are willing to spend (Sabathia) and (perhaps?) overspend (Burnett), they seem hardcore unwilling to pay too much for players they think are overpriced.....

But now you're gambling on three bottom-tier pitchers turning in average performances totaling 200 innings, instead of banking on one good pitcher, and you're using up three roster spots to do it.

Or you could use a pitcher like Hughes, or Kennedy, who admittedly haven't pitched well in small sample sizes. But are considered better than replacement level and could produce what an average pitcher or above average if they are able to reach their potential and ability next year.

The 2009 Yankees staff is set with C.C., Burnett, Wang, Joba, and whomever holds down the 5th spot. And they could sign another Free Agent pitcher other than Pettiette if they so choose. They could also turn to Hughes, and Kennedy if they so choose, or any other minor leaguer in their system. It wouldn't take 3 roster spots to fill the 5th starter spot, it might take a creative use of minor league options and the DL, but its can be done. Other teams not named the Yankees deal with this situation on a constant basis, if loosing Pettiette's services for 2009 is a disadvantage, all it does is makes the Yankees weaker every 5th day, and more beatable on that 5th day compared than say, when Wang or Joba, or C.C. is pitching. Just like 90% of the rest of the league when they throw up their 5th starter.

And my issue is that one 'good' pitcher might not be as good as he once was, and his 2008 stats suggest it. You're saying what about his 2007, and his 2006 stats? I'm saying that the Yankees likely aren't using his 2006, 2007 stats to value Pettitte this time around. They used the 2006 stats for his 2007 contract, and they used his 2007 stats for his 2008 contract. And the Yankees will use his 2008 stats to make a value for his 2008 contract. What's wrong with that?

How about Washburn as a comp? He's got a year left on his contract, which anyone can have if they like. He's going to make $10M this year, and he sucks.

Or you could use a pitcher like Hughes, or Kennedy, who admittedly haven't pitched well in small sample sizes. But are considered better than replacement level and could produce what an average pitcher or above average if they are able to reach their potential and ability next year.

Yes, you could do that, and that would be quite reasonable. But that has nothing to do with the discussion, which is what Pettitte's services are worth on the open market. And on the open market, they are worth decidedly more than 1 year, $10 million. If that's what the Yankees offered, and if that's as high as the Yankees willing to go, then they should be prepared to go to Hughes/Kennedy.

If the Yankees have reasonable in-house options (considering cost) than Pettitte, then it's quite reasonable to decide not to sign him for a market value deal. But if the Yankees are only prepared to go 1 year, $10 mil, that doesn't mean that they are offering market value.

This could be a BTF milestone.

A player who is both being wildly underrated AND overrated repeatedly in the first 50 posts.

Andy Pettite eats lightning and craps thunder. That's just the way it is.

I wish the Rangers had had a starter with 200 IP and a 98 ERA+ last year.

Padilla is on the last leg of a 3 year, $34M contract. Millwood's got two more years at $11M and $12M.

Yes, you could do that, and that would be quite reasonable. But that has nothing to do with the discussion, which is what Pettitte's services are worth on the open market. And on the open market, they are worth decidedly more than 1 year, $10 million. If that's what the Yankees offered, and if that's as high as the Yankees willing to go, then they should be prepared to go to Hughes/Kennedy.

If the Yankees have reasonable in-house options (considering cost) than Pettitte, then it's quite reasonable to decide not to sign him for a market value deal. But if the Yankees are only prepared to go 1 year, $10 mil, that doesn't mean that they are offering market value.

If Pettitte really doesn't want to pitch anywhere next year except the Bronx, then market value is, by definition, whatever the Yankees want to pay him, since they constitute the entire market for him.

I can see the Yankees' perspective on this: Pettitte for one year would be their fifth starter, probably. He would block Hughes if Hughes develops, his upside isn't tremendous, and he was terrible for the last two months. At $16 million, it's not worth it to them. At $13 million, the might be able to get a two-year deal for Sheets, who has much more upside. At $10 million, yeah, it's probably worth a shot to get the added depth, since the team will rely so heavily on starting pitching next season.

If Pettitte really doesn't want to pitch anywhere next year except the Bronx, then market value is, by definition, whatever the Yankees want to pay him, since they constitute the entire market for him.

True, but if he _is_ willing to go somewhere else, then it's not. I don't really see why we should assume he wouldn't go somewhere else; he left once, and if he feels like he's being seriously lowballed (which he is) then it's not hard at all to see him going elsewhere. Particularly to Houston or LA.

I can see the Yankees' perspective on this: Pettitte for one year would be their fifth starter, probably. He would block Hughes if Hughes develops, his upside isn't tremendous, and he was terrible for the last two months. At $16 million, it's not worth it to them. At $13 million, the might be able to get a two-year deal for Sheets, who has much more upside. At $10 million, yeah, it's probably worth a shot to get the added depth, since the team will rely so heavily on starting pitching next season.

All of that's fine (well, Sheets is going to sign for more than that), but irrelevant if the open market consists of teams other than the Yankees.

Frankly, it would seem silly of the Yankees, after shelling out upwards of $250 million for Sabathia and Burnett, to let $3 million or $6 million stand in the way of adding Pettitte (lowballing him with a $10 million offer). Hughes can pitch out of the pen if they deem him ready, and he can step in if/when someone goes down.

Besides, I'm not completely convinced that the Yankees aren't going to foolishly send Chamberlain back to the pen.

Ray, do you read Andy's quotes in the past ever? The man is a pathetic ingrate.

What exactly is he supposed to be so grateful for that he turns down $5 million or more?

I think this may be the weirdest strictly-baseball discussion I've seen around here, and I've been around a long time. It's like everybody is wrong, but they all think they're right.

Howie and Voxter:

What would you peg Pettitte's value on the open market at?

What would you peg Pettitte's value on the open market at?

Not that you asked me, and not that that's ever stopped me... it's an interesting question. IF Pettitte was willing to go anywhere, he'd have to get at least 3/35.

Not that you asked me, and not that that's ever stopped me... it's an interesting question. IF Pettitte was willing to go anywhere, he'd have to get at least 3/35.

I think he'd get close to that, yes -- which is about what the rumored offer is.

I just don't think 1 year, $10 million is in the same time zone as reality.

Mets, right?

BOOOOOO MCoA.

BOO!