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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Heyman: Royals have talked about Shields, Lester, Dickey in effort to trade for top starter

Fried Zack Greinke?  Is he going to the Red Sox??

The Royals, who are searching for a top-of-the-rotation starter and have checked in on Jon Lester and James Shields, talked to the Mets about R.A. Dickey as well…

The Mets’ goal is to keep Dickey on a two-year extension, but if they did trade him would most prefer a catcher and outfield help. (As Mets GM Sandy Alderson said a few weeks ago regarding their roster, “What outfield?”)...

The Rays are willing to talk about just about anyone (except the recently extended Evan Longoria), but they love Shields’ durability, and seem willing to live with his $10-million salary, which is high for them. Jeremy Hellickson is a pitcher who might fit for the Royals, but they are at the moment looking for an ace…

The Royals have a terrific stash of prospects to dangle, and apparently would consider dealing even [Wil] Myers in the right deal, but aren’t looking to trade from their young nucleus that includes [Salvador] Perez, third baseman Mike Moustakas and first baseman Eric Hosmer.

They see Alex Gordon and Billy Butler as close to untouchable as they don’t want to break up a strong homegrown positional group. They’ve also gotten a lot of calls of inquiry about shortstop Alcides Escobar, but they aren’t inclined to trade him, either.

The Royals are believed to have up to $6 million to spend so they are not in the market for a top free-agent pitcher (that includes their old fried Zack Greinke), though they could increase their spending power slightly if they could trade Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen or Jeff Francoeur.

The District Attorney Posted: November 29, 2012 at 01:34 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: james shields, jon lester, mets, r.a. dickey, rays, red sox, royals, rumors

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   1. Poster Nutbag Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4312478)
Is it just me, or does it seem almost TOO perfect of a fit for KC and OAK to trade right now....one team needs pitching, the other is always seeking to improve offense....should be a deal SOMEWHERE in there.....
   2. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4312527)
They see Alex Gordon and Billy Butler as close to untouchable as they don’t want to break up a strong homegrown positional group. They’ve also gotten a lot of calls of inquiry about shortstop Alcides Escobar, but they aren’t inclined to trade him, either.



Both of these guys are good players, but "close to untouchable"? I don't think so. If you want a "true" ace (120 ERA+ every year, 200 IP/year), I think the asking price has to start with one of those two, and go upwards.

I don't see them getting a pitcher better than Hellickson in a deal without either of these two guys.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4312534)
The Royals are believed to have up to $6 million to spend

$6 M? Hilaripus.

trade Luke Hochevar

Surely even the Royals realize it's time to non-tender Hochevar. He's been replacement level for his career, was terrible in 2012 and, if they tender him, is guaranteed a min of $3.2 M and more likely something like $4 M.

   4. DA Baracus Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4312539)
Both of these guys are good players, but "close to untouchable"? I don't think so.


You're forgetting that it's the Royals. Calling those players "close to untouchable" is one reason why they're so bad.
   5. geonose Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4312543)
Both of these guys are good players, but "close to untouchable"? I don't think so. If you want a "true" ace (120 ERA+ every year, 200 IP/year), I think the asking price has to start with one of those two, and go upwards.

The problem is that if the Royals trade virually any of their major league players on offense, they have nobody to replace them. Their best minor leaguers now are not close to ready. A trade hacks a hole in their offense and is counterproductive to any notion they have of improving the team. That's why they prefer to trade minor leaguers, Myers excepted.

Actually, they would be far better off skipping the notion that they need a frontline ace-type pitcher right now. I think that need is a year or more down the road.
   6. spycake Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4312546)
they could increase their spending power slightly if they could trade Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen or Jeff Francoeur.

Kansas City offers Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, and Jeff Francoeur for James Shields

Tampa Bay response
   7. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4312556)
He's mentioned in the title, but not in the excerpt. Is there a publicly-available reason to believe that Lester's performance going forward is going to look more like 2012 than the rest of his career? Given the deals that I've seen his name floated in, he looks to be tremendously undervalued, and I can't quite figure out why.
   8. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4312577)
He's mentioned in the title, but not in the excerpt. Is there a publicly-available reason to believe that Lester's performance going forward is going to look more like 2012 than the rest of his career? Given the deals that I've seen his name floated in, he looks to be tremendously undervalued, and I can't quite figure out why.


His K rate is sinking like a stone. If I had to guess I wouldn't expect his performance to look like 2012 but at the same time I don't think we'll see 2008 again either. I sort of expect his career to become somewhat Beckett-like with alternatively good and bad years. Not necessarily in the strict good/bad pattern Josh has had but generally uneven with wide swings.
   9. geonose Posted: November 29, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4312584)
Is there a publicly-available reason to believe that Lester's performance going forward is going to look more like 2012 than the rest of his career?

Decrease in fastball velocity (although it's not extreme, to my mind), and huge decrease in K rate. Home runs, FIP and xFIP steadily increasing year to year. Decreased availability of beer and fried chicken.
   10. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4312587)
I sort of expect his career to become somewhat Beckett-like with alternatively good and bad years. Not necessarily in the strict good/bad pattern Josh has had but generally uneven with wide swings.


Even if this were a lead-pipe lock to be true, I think that Lester is probably at his trade value nadir. If the Sox move him now, I'd be likely to consider it "selling low".
   11. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4312611)
Even if this were a lead-pipe lock to be true, I think that Lester is probably at his trade value nadir. If the Sox move him now, I'd be likely to consider it "selling low".


Oh absolutely. I'm just not sold that he's going to lead us back into contention. I'm not a big Jon Lester fan though so take that for what it's worth.
   12. bob gee Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4312616)
the a's would have to deal something like:

crisp + 2 young good pitchers (griffin/straily + parker?)

does that work?
   13. Al Kaline Trio Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4312623)
#12 I don't think the A's are that rich in pitching unless they sign a free agent starter.

If the A's traded for Myers and he's a RF what do you do with Reddick? Trade him for Hellickson?

Assuming he can be passable in CF for the next three years with Cespedes in LF and Reddick in RF that would be a pretty good hitting OF.
   14. Danny Posted: November 29, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4312631)
Don't forget Chris Young.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 29, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4312666)
Both of these guys are good players, but "close to untouchable"? I don't think so. If you want a "true" ace (120 ERA+ every year, 200 IP/year), I think the asking price has to start with one of those two, and go upwards.

I don't see them getting a pitcher better than Hellickson in a deal without either of these two guys.


I don't recall many deals for "true aces" that required an established major leaguer of the caliber of Butler or Gordon, or if there, they are rather few. It makes little sense to give up that much offense to get pitching. Its not like the Royals had a top offense last year.

I like the idea of some sort of swap with Oakland, but I don't know what makes sense right now. The A's seem kinda loaded in the OF right now. I guess they need a SS? I'd be inclined to move Escobar, much as I love him, if the right pitcher was available. Does Moustakas interest them with his low OBA?
   16. SandyRiver Posted: November 29, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4312710)
His K rate is sinking like a stone. If I had to guess I wouldn't expect his performance to look like 2012 but at the same time I don't think we'll see 2008 again either.

Lester's 2008 was certainly a whole lot better than this past year, but his K/9 was actually about 10% lower than in 2012. It's 2009-11 when he had the tall K rate. What that means for his future is anybody's guess.
   17. Poster Nutbag Posted: November 29, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4312744)
12-15....to clarify, I am NOT talking about pursuing Myers, but rather Moustakas (POSSIBLY Escobar....BIG POSSIBLY)....
   18. Squash Posted: November 29, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4312788)
the a's would have to deal something like:

crisp + 2 young good pitchers (griffin/straily + parker?)


For Myers? Alone?
   19. Al Kaline Trio Posted: November 29, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4312792)
Honest question: How much better is Moose Tacos than Donaldson?

Would he go to the Royals and a guy like Peacock or Gray (would it still take Griffin/Straily)? Do the Royals have another 3B to take over or would they have to look for a free agent?
   20. Squash Posted: November 29, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4312807)
Honest question: How much better is Moose Tacos than Donaldson?

BBRef has Moustakas at 2.9 WAR in 614 PA and Donaldson at 1.3 in 294 PA. Donaldson will play next year as a 27 year old, MM at 24. Both guys are getting a significant chunk of that WAR from defense, with Moustakas's share more significant. Quick and dirty it looks like last year they were roughly equivalent last year (Donaldson surprisingly a little better with the bat per/PA than Moustakas, Moustakas better with the glove). MM has more service time. Donaldson is significantly older. I'd say MM is significantly better given he's likely to improve, that the Royals won't have a ton of interest in getting Donaldson back, but that at least right now Donaldson isn't a disaster. And if his (Donaldson's) post-ASB callup performance is to be believed, he's a pretty decent option.
   21. Al Kaline Trio Posted: November 29, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4312818)
Ok that's about what I thought. I think Donaldson might be a less gritty (and worse on defense) Brandon Inge type.
   22. Poster Nutbag Posted: November 29, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4312826)
Honest question: How much better is Moose Tacos than Donaldson?


Couldn't the two basically be platooned...rotating some DH work in and whatnot....?
   23. Topher Posted: November 29, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4312954)
Shields would seem to be one that Dayton Moore would go after.

I think there are some legit questions about just how good Shields is compared to how good Shields looks because of the defense behind him. But .... Moore's statements indicate that he thinks the Royals have the best defense in the AL. Even if Moore would be questioning how much of an impact the Rays good defense is on Shields overall numbers, it would just lead him to conclude that Shields would be even better in KC because he be playing with an even better team in the field.

I'll predict a trade of Shields for Myers + Kyle Smith
   24. JJ1986 Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4320582)
Shields has been traded to KC. Probable that Myers is the return.
   25. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:54 PM (#4320586)
What is the deal with the Royals front office? The Ervin Santana deal was treated as practically a done deal on blogs a week before it happened. This too. I think everyone know they were going to trade the Melk Man last year too.
   26. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4320600)
Shields and Wade Davis for Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and someone named Leonard.
   27. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4320601)
@DAVIDprice14 - Lies!!!!!
   28. The District Attorney Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4320602)
Odorizzi too? Good gravy.
   29. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4320607)
what would be fun is if tb saw myers as a long run solution at catcher.
   30. Tripon Posted: December 10, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4320612)
Michael Silverman ?@MikeSilvermanBB
I’m from KC. My daughter asked me what was wrong. Told her. She said, "If the #Rays ask for somebody on your team, you should keep them.’’
   31. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4320636)
Please stop ruining my favorite baseball team.

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