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Monday, December 04, 2017

Heyman | Shohei Ohtani Down To 7 Teams

With the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes recently picking up some serious steam, a source close to the situation has now informed FanRag Sports that the Japanese phenom has narrowed down his list of potential suitors to seven teams. Ohtani is still considering the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 04, 2017 at 02:10 PM | 132 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: shohei ohtani

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   101. RMc's Unenviable Situation Posted: December 05, 2017 at 06:04 PM (#5586838)
I don't think the same people would call him stupid for making $25 dollars for the work he could be making $25000 for.

They might call him stupid using both the dollar sign and the word "dollars" in a sentence, however. (And leaving the comma out of "$25,000".)
   102. SoSH U at work Posted: December 05, 2017 at 06:15 PM (#5586845)
They might call him stupid using both the dollar sign and the word "dollars" in a sentence, however.


Those are dollar bucks.

   103. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 05, 2017 at 07:34 PM (#5586884)
Ohtani wouldn't be giving up his entire free agent contract, he's delaying it while making money. The first 3 years are at MLB minimum vs whatever he makes in Japan. When he gets the real money he will hopefully have proven himself to be worth the $100 million he's hoping for.
   104. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2017 at 07:42 PM (#5586889)
Snapper can defend himself (or not) but his statement way back there was "IT" is dumb, not "HE" is dumb. "It" being the decision. Smart people make dumb decisions all the time.

I also find it entertaining that folks are perfectly comfortable assuming that he must value other things. This entertains me because the only reason folks assume he values other things is that they are looking for a rational explanation for why somebody would do something so obviously dumb as to give away tens of millions of dollars. This is always the last refuge of economists when their predictions go badly wrong, that obviously actors must be maximizing other utils.

Many of us have made decisions to forego a bit of money for non-financial reasons. But it's only a bit of money -- we pass up on eating out a couple of extra times a week or we wait an extra year to buy a new car or whatever. I doubt any of us have been faced with the choice between a (nearly) guaranteed $8-10 M over the next two years compared with $4 much less the added possibility of making maybe as much as $120 M for the 4 years after that compared with maybe $40 M plus the added possibility that the 4/$120 is part of a guaranteed 8/$240 (if not longer) while the 3/$40 might be year-to-year with no guarantee beyond that.

Sure, after $20, 30, 40 million, god only knows what you do with the rest ... but we're talking magnitudes of extra money. And the "let's play it safe and make sure I'm set for life" option is to stay put in Japan and make that $8 M then come over.

So he's reduced his chances of hitting a super-big payday and he's minimized his security (and is moving away from family and friends) ... because he wants to find out if he's the next Babe Ruth? "Dumb" seems a fair characterization of that decision.
   105. Khrushin it bro Posted: December 05, 2017 at 07:53 PM (#5586894)
So he's reduced his chances of hitting a super-big payday and he's minimized his security (and is moving away from family and friends) ... because he wants to find out if he's the next Babe Ruth? "Dumb" seems a fair characterization of that decision.


"Gangster"
   106. SoSH U at work Posted: December 05, 2017 at 07:58 PM (#5586895)
I also find it entertaining that folks are perfectly comfortable assuming that he must value other things. This entertains me because the only reason folks assume he values other things is that they are looking for a rational explanation for why somebody would do something so obviously dumb as to give away tens of millions of dollars.


Do you think he was unaware of the financial repercussions of his decision?

Because as long as he understood what going now would mean vs. staying in Japan for two more years, then he clearly did value other things. Apparently, as least to snapper, he's not allowed to.
   107. McCoy Posted: December 05, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5586905)
Ohtani has made millions in Japan already. Will likely earn a few million over here immediately upon signing his MLB and endorsement contract. He's basically set for life right now.

He waits 2 years and signs an 8 yr/$200 million contract. He comes over now, plays a season and signs for 8 years at 150 million dollars. That locks him up until 32 as opposed to waiting 2 years and then signing a contract that locks him up until age 33.

Doesn't sound like a terribly bad deal for somebody that wants to play as much as he can in his prime.
   108. Baldrick Posted: December 05, 2017 at 08:39 PM (#5586914)
So he's reduced his chances of hitting a super-big payday and he's minimized his security (and is moving away from family and friends) ... because he wants to find out if he's the next Babe Ruth? "Dumb" seems a fair characterization of that decision.

"Not the decision I personally would have made" =/= "dumb"

Honestly, this conversation is just baffling. We have no idea what is really going on in his decision-making, but it's not REMOTELY difficult to imagine him thinking "I'll be stupid rich under any of these cases, and I want to test myself against the best in the world."

So yes, maybe he's a total dunderhead that is utterly incapable of grasping the unfairness of the situation. Occam's Razor tells us that probably understands it just fine, and made a decision based on that information. Why people here insist on calling that 'dumb' is beyond me.
   109. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: December 05, 2017 at 09:34 PM (#5586934)
#108

Agree. As I posted earlier, maybe he's just bored with the level of play in Japan and wants to play against the best right now. Professional athletes tend to be pretty competitive people, I can see the logic of wanting to go up against the best in the world.
Why is that hard for people to understand? It's not dumb at all unless money is your sole motivator. He's already made a few million and is 25 years old.
   110. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 05, 2017 at 09:40 PM (#5586937)
He comes over now, plays a season and signs for 8 years at 150 million dollars.


This pretty much can't happen. He's locked in to at least two years at the MLB minimum. And I'm pretty sure he's not getting Mike Trout's contract after two years, but I guess that's because I'm pretty sure that he is not, in fact, the next Babe Ruth.
   111. McCoy Posted: December 05, 2017 at 10:32 PM (#5586968)
MLB can rattle their sword all they want but in the end they can't do much to stop a team from giving a player a contract after a season in the bigs.
   112. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2017 at 11:15 PM (#5586993)
MLB can rattle their sword all they want but in the end they can't do much to stop a team from giving a player a contract after a season in the bigs.

Yes they can. they can void the contract.

The only thing MLB is committed to is screwing young players so the teams can profit.

Because as long as he understood what going now would mean vs. staying in Japan for two more years, then he clearly did value other things. Apparently, as least to snapper, he's not allowed to.

He's allowed to, and I'm allowed to call his decision stupid.

He waits 2 years and signs an 8 yr/$200 million contract. He comes over now, plays a season and signs for 8 years at 150 million dollars. That locks him up until 32 as opposed to waiting 2 years and then signing a contract that locks him up until age 33.

Doesn't sound like a terribly bad deal for somebody that wants to play as much as he can in his prime.


Completely ignoring the risk that he's not very good, or injures himself adopting to the MLB workload.
   113. McCoy Posted: December 06, 2017 at 08:21 AM (#5587042)
Which either they won't do or will get taken to court.

Waiting two years carries a risk as well. He's willing to play now. Either way he's made millions already and will likely make more.
   114. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 06, 2017 at 08:38 AM (#5587047)
He's allowed to, and I'm allowed to call his decision stupid.

Wait, so you're calling a decision that hurts the decision maker economically but works in favor of other things the decision maker values 'stupid?'

That being the case, you might want to reexamine your voting record. Just saying.
   115. Nasty Nate Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:07 AM (#5587072)
Do people think he's really been going around soliciting verbal agreements with teams to run an end around on the international bonus limits?
   116. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5587076)
Wait, so you're calling a decision that hurts the decision maker economically but works in favor of other things the decision maker values 'stupid?'

Yes. He's making a horrendous trade off out of impatience. That's dumb.

That being the case, you might want to reexamine your voting record. Just saying.

Don't want to go OTP, but my stock portfolio is really enjoying the current administration. I'm sure I've already made 20 years worth of what the SALT deduction is going to cost me; I'm AMTed anyway.
   117. PreservedFish Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:26 AM (#5587087)
Ohtani's decision could be a sign of rare wisdom and self-awareness (the realization that he's going to be set for life no matter what happens, and that $100M doesn't mean more to him than $10M). Or of infantile ignorance. Or of confidence. Who knows.

Do people think he's really been going around soliciting verbal agreements with teams to run an end around on the international bonus limits?


No.
   118. Rally Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:35 AM (#5587092)
Ohtani has made millions in Japan already. Will likely earn a few million over here immediately upon signing his MLB and endorsement contract. He's basically set for life right now.


I would not consider him set for life, in the case he signed and suffered a career ending injury in spring training. Last year he made about 2.7 mil. I couldn't find a lot of data on NPB contracts but 2 years ago he did not make a list of the top 40 NPB earners, which went down to 1.5 million. In his rookie year 2013 he made only 150k.

So an estimate:
2013 150k
2014 500k
2015 1.5m
2016 2.0m
2017 2.7m

Total 6.8 million, of which he probably paid out half in taxes. If he was very frugal with living expenses maybe he's got 3 million in the bank right now. That would be enough, if he were in his 60's, to fund a comfortable upper middle class retirement. It's not enough for a 23 year old to live a famous lifestyle on.
   119. The Good Face Posted: December 06, 2017 at 10:20 AM (#5587144)
Total 6.8 million, of which he probably paid out half in taxes. If he was very frugal with living expenses maybe he's got 3 million in the bank right now. That would be enough, if he were in his 60's, to fund a comfortable upper middle class retirement. It's not enough for a 23 year old to live a famous lifestyle on.


He's also going to get a signing bonus of up to $3M and the MLB minimum for 2018, plus endorsements. If for whatever reason he can't hack it in MLB, he goes back to Japan where he's already proven himself a star. If he blows out his arm, he either sticks as a hitter here or in Japan, depending on how good he really is. It's really hard to imagine a sports related injury so severe that it just wholly prevents him from playing baseball at all. He could always get hit by a bus or something, but that could happen anywhere and probably shouldn't impact his decision making.

In short, his realistic worst case scenario is serious arm injury in the US coupled with not enough bat to play OF or DH. In which case he returns to Japan and makes a good living as a hitter.
   120. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 06, 2017 at 10:37 AM (#5587161)
Don't want to go OTP, but my stock portfolio is really enjoying the current administration. I'm sure I've already made 20 years worth of what the SALT deduction is going to cost me; I'm AMTed anyway.

So you're fine with every economic justice principle you've ever espoused here going out the window as long as you benefit personally. Got it. Anyway, agreed that this isn't the place for OTP, so I'll leave it at that.
   121. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 10:43 AM (#5587167)
So you're fine with every economic justice principle you've ever espoused here going out the window as long as you benefit personally.

No, I just completely reject the idea that the other side is any better for economic justice. They're worse.

The tax bill is not in my economic interest, but I'm OK with that. It's good for the country to stop subsidizing ludicrous state income tax rates.
   122. Nasty Nate Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:37 PM (#5587822)
The angels and mariners each traded for more bonus money from the twins...
   123. madvillain Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:56 PM (#5587824)
I will just say that anybody that thinks seriously that the POTUS has much to do with the stock market and that we aren't due for a massive correction, well good luck to you.

Look, I hope it doesn't happen -- but I've also read way too much Nassim Taleb. It's only a matter of time before something bad happens. It's...hard to predict. If it does happen, maybe Trump will be unfairly saddled with it. Or maybe he'll have helped create it.
   124. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 07, 2017 at 04:54 AM (#5587839)
I enjoyed the summer run up in the market as well (as did nearly everyone). Now I'm ultra-shorting waiting for the inevitable correction in either late 2017 or early 2018.
   125. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 07, 2017 at 11:10 AM (#5587924)
Didn't see this on here, but the Twins just traded international bonus money to both the Mariners and Angels, presumably so that they can sweeten the pot for Ohtani.

-- MWE
   126. PepTech Posted: December 07, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5587944)
Nate, don't worry, *I* saw post 122 :)
   127. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 07, 2017 at 11:55 AM (#5587958)
Nate, don't worry, *I* saw post 122 :)


Got to use upper case for me to see it these days :)

-- MWE
   128. Nasty Nate Posted: December 07, 2017 at 12:02 PM (#5587963)
Maybe I was referring to just groups of seamen, heavenly beings, and siblings born together - and not the MLB teams?
   129. PepTech Posted: December 07, 2017 at 12:07 PM (#5587968)
Mariner fans are allowing themselves to think it might be possible, which strikes me as the worst possible sign of end times. Given the state of baseball around here, he'll end up taking the Padres to the pennant while the Mariners win 83 games and miss the playoffs.
   130. PepTech Posted: December 07, 2017 at 06:44 PM (#5588368)
The M's have now traded three prospects for Dee Gordon and another $1M in allocation money, so they now have the highest kitty among the seven still in the running...

Talk about doubling down. Their farm system is officially bereft.
   131. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 07, 2017 at 06:51 PM (#5588371)
Given the state of baseball around here, he'll end up taking the Padres to the pennant while the Mariners win 83 games and miss the playoffs.


Or they do sign him, but he ends up pitching like a fifth starter and hitting like a backup catcher.
   132. PepTech Posted: December 07, 2017 at 06:54 PM (#5588374)
You sort of talk like you're from around here, but...
Or they do sign him, but he ends up pitching like a fifth starter and or hitting like a backup catcher.
...Ok, fixed that for you ;)
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