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Friday, December 14, 2012

Heyman: Yankees have deal with Suzuki

Even though I knew it was going to happen, this is all still very weird to me.

yankees have deal with ichiro. 2 yrs, likely $13M

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:03 AM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ichiro, ichiro suzuki, transactions, yankees

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   1. SG Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4324574)
Going to a second year was probably necessary if they didn't want to lose him to Philly or San Francisco but it's going to make it that much harder to be competitive in 2014 with their self-imposed payroll limit while having to re-sign and /or replace Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis and Robinson Cano.
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4324580)
Going to a second year was probably necessary if they didn't want to lose him to Philly or San Francisco but it's going to make it that much harder to be competitive in 2014 with their self-imposed payroll limit while having to re-sign and /or replace Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis and Robinson Cano.
Assuming they re-sign Cano at ~$25M per, the Yankees would have $107M (luxury tax) in already guaranteed contracts for five players (Teixeira, ARod, Sabathia, Cano, Ichiro). Add in arb contracts for Gardner, Robertson, Nova, one of the catchers, plus pre-arb money for a couple relievers, that looks like about $10M more. So the Yankees would have a little over $50M to fill SS, 3B, LF, three SP, and maybe three relievers as well. Assume you go cheap in the bullpen and bench, and you get at least one of the starters from the minors, the Yankees would have about $8M to spend per open position. On first look, that reads like a legitimately difficult task, if the goal is 88 wins or more.

It's hard for me to say that Ichiro is really part of the problem, though. He could be, but overall you're going to need more Ichiros, not fewer, to make that roster work.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4324590)
I like it, as long as they get a RHB to get 400 PAs as the 4th OF.

What's the defensive lineup? Ichiro RF, Gardner CF, Granderson LF? Or do you want Ichiro playing LF, at least at home?
   4. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4324591)
I'm really surprised that the Yankees went 2 years here. The Austerity plan would seem to dictate otherwise (why not go 2 on Russell Martin, then? Austin Romine ain't gonna help.)

Building off of MCoA, 50M has to cover a lot next season and that could include names like Jeter, Rivera, and Pettitte that won't want to take pay cuts. I have a feeling it's very plausible to say that this year is the actual last run of those three in Pinstripes. The Yankees simply won't allow themselves the resources to bring them back, even if Jeter et. al, want to come back for another run.
   5. Blastin Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4324598)
Jeter has a player option in 2014.

But I think Rivera and Pettitte retire.

I'm pretty sure they will still have a 3Bman next year. But they'll need a strong caddy.
   6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4324607)
I'm pretty sure they will still have a 3Bman next year. But they'll need a strong caddy.
If ARod plays third, then they'll need a DH. I was counting ARod as a regular, just shifting him mostly to DH.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4324610)
I'm really surprised that the Yankees went 2 years here. The Austerity plan would seem to dictate otherwise (why not go 2 on Russell Martin, then? Austin Romine ain't gonna help.)

Building off of MCoA, 50M has to cover a lot next season and that could include names like Jeter, Rivera, and Pettitte that won't want to take pay cuts. I have a feeling it's very plausible to say that this year is the actual last run of those three in Pinstripes. The Yankees simply won't allow themselves the resources to bring them back, even if Jeter et. al, want to come back for another run.


They have more plausible options for C in 2013, and especially 2014, than they do for OF.

If Rivera and Pettitte want to come back, they'll have to work cheap. I think that's the bottom line. I doubt either wants to play elsewhere at this point, so the choice will be play cheap, or retire.
   8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4324612)
I doubt either wants to play elsewhere at this point, so the choice will be play cheap, or retire.
If the Yankees end up smearing Rivera or Pettitte as "greedy" on his way out of town, oh my, the ironing will be delicious.
   9. Blastin Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:51 AM (#4324618)
If ARod plays third, then they'll need a DH. I was counting ARod as a regular, just shifting him mostly to DH.


Fair enough.

I think they roll the dice with some prospects for SP in 2014. Cheap guys for LF and DH. Probably drop down for a year. Question is if they bother to really reload in 2015.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4324626)
If the Yankees end up smearing Rivera or Pettitte as "greedy" on his way out of town, oh my, the ironing will be delicious.

They won't do that; at least I've seen no evidence of them doing it in the past. They didn't try and smear Jeter last time.

They'll just make a fair, somewhat below market offer based on their 2013 performance, and let the chips fall.

I mean, if Pettitte throws 200 IP of 120 ERA+, and Rivera goes 65 IP with a 1.80 ERA, the Yankees will offer them healthy deals. They need some players for 2014.
   11. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4324630)
I mean, if Pettitte throws 200 IP of 120 ERA+,


Funny thing about Pettitte. He's got a career 117 ERA+, but he's never had a season, even a truncated one, particularly close to that. And he's never had a season within 8 points of 120.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4324649)
Funny thing about Pettitte. He's got a career 117 ERA+, but he's never had a season, even a truncated one, particularly close to that. And he's never had a season within 8 points of 120.

So, you're saying he's due?
   13. AROM Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4324666)
Andy's had 2 seasons of 112 - 2001 and 2007, with over 200 IP. That's within 8 points. He's also had 4 seasons of exactly 111.
   14. KronicFatigue Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4324673)
The Austerity plan for 2014 will have been talked about for three years, so I think even the most casual fan will have a decent understanding of it. I think it's very easy for the Yankees to flat out punt '14 with a promise to the fans that they'll be back to being the MFY in '15 and beyond.

That could be rough if Mo and Andy still want to play, and are still good, but so be it. They Yankees won't be shooting for 88 wins in '14. They're shooting to get under the luxury threshold, and hope to acquire as many wins as possible AFTER doing that.

If they really wanted to get cute, they could offer 1 year contracts to some players in '14 with a handshake agreement to resign them to sweetened deals the next year. And since the Yankees aren't the Marlins, it might work. Hmm, if Andy said "i want to pitch in '14, but retire after that", could the Yankees offer him a 5 year for 20 million deal, making him a 4 million per year, and then buy out the rest of the years after '14 comes off the books?
   15. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4324679)
Andy's had 2 seasons of 112 - 2001 and 2007, with over 200 IP. That's within 8 points. He's also had 4 seasons of exactly 111.


I meant to say closer than 8 points. 7 seasons between 110 and 112, then his next highest is 129.
   16. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4324706)
And the Yankees continue on painting themselves into a financial corner...
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4324712)
And the Yankees continue on painting themselves into a financial corner...

What decent RF are they getting for $6.5M p.a.?
   18. jyjjy Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4324731)
And the Yankees continue on painting themselves into a financial corner...

They had the "corner" forced on them suddenly with the new CBA and are trying their best to work around that. How do you see this move as not part of that but rather the opposite? More succinctly; What?
   19. catomi01 Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4324738)
If they really wanted to get cute, they could offer 1 year contracts to some players in '14 with a handshake agreement to resign them to sweetened deals the next year.


How are options handled as far as the luxury tax works...as I understand it its by AAV...so a 2 year deal with salaries of 1 M and 13 M each season would be counted as $7 M as far as luxury tax is concerned, right? But how does it work if that $13 M is a player options, or a vesting option (with say the requirement being 1 IP or 5 AB's or something like that?)
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4324744)
If they really wanted to get cute, they could offer 1 year contracts to some players in '14 with a handshake agreement to resign them to sweetened deals the next year. And since the Yankees aren't the Marlins, it might work. Hmm, if Andy said "i want to pitch in '14, but retire after that", could the Yankees offer him a 5 year for 20 million deal, making him a 4 million per year, and then buy out the rest of the years after '14 comes off the books?


These deals would violate some rules and probably be discovered.
   21. SG Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4324749)
They had the "corner" forced on them suddenly with the new CBA and are trying their best to work around that.


Well, I don't think I'd say it's been forced on them. They are choosing to do this to increase their profit margins. They could simply pay the penalties and not receive any revenue sharing rebates for being over the payroll limit if they wanted to field the best team they could. But I'm not sure they fully understand how spoiled their fanbase is(myself included). If they lose enough season ticket holders and ratings they may be forced to drop this plan.
   22. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4324757)
You might even start seeing empty seats at New Yankee Stadium.
   23. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 14, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4324758)
If they lose enough season ticket holders and ratings they may be forced to drop this plan.


I wonder if the Yankees are watching the Red Sox closely this year on the business front. If the Sox retain a reasonable percentage of attendance/ratings/misc. revenue the Yankees may feel a level of confidence in going through a bit of a rebuild. Conversely, if the Sox get crushed in those areas (and there is a real chance of that) the Yankees may decide it's not worth it and be a bit more aggressive next winter than currently appears likely.
   24. KronicFatigue Posted: December 14, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4324772)
What are the implications of the Yankees opting out of Stub Hub and going with ticketmaster for the resale of tickets? There's gotta be a way to be in front of a lower demand for a single season. Create some kind of discount for season ticket holders, have a PR campaign of lowered prices, etc etc.

The amount of money that the Yankees will save by dipping down for one year in '14 seems huge. I obviously have no idea what I'm talking about, but I can't fathom that decreased demand in one season of tickets (and tv ratings, etc) could offset that.
   25. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: December 14, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4324780)
But how does it work if that $13 M is a player options, or a vesting option (with say the requirement being 1 IP or 5 AB's or something like that?)


The league has to approve all contracts, so it may interpret the latter as a 2 year/$14 mil guaranteed, or they may not approve it at all, or something else. Bud's a lot of things, but he's not stupid. If he doesn't want to, he won't fall for an obvious ploy to game the system.
   26. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 14, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4324796)
I remember a few years ago an NHL team tried to sign a player to a 17 year contract with something like the last 5 years at the league minimum, since it was the average salary per year that counted toward the cap. But the contract was denied.

Source
   27. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 14, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4324866)
...Hmm, if Andy said "i want to pitch in '14, but retire after that", could the Yankees offer him a 5 year for 20 million deal, making him a 4 million per year, and then buy out the rest of the years after '14 comes off the books?

These deals would violate some rules and probably be discovered.


That deal would not violate any rules, BUT there certainly would be a retroactive recalculation of the AAV after the buyout. So, IOW, it wouldn't help.

But how does it work if that $13 M is a player options, or a vesting option (with say the requirement being 1 IP or 5 AB's or something like that?)

The league has to approve all contracts, so it may interpret the latter as a 2 year/$14 mil guaranteed, or they may not approve it at all, or something else. Bud's a lot of things, but he's not stupid. If he doesn't want to, he won't fall for an obvious ploy to game the system.


Again, I think the fixes for this kind of thing are already built in to the system. Lux tax is calculated at the end of the season, and earned incentives get added in. I'd assume that if a vesting option vests, the AAV gets recalculated. Not sure about player options, but my guess would be that they get figured in as guaranteed money up front, and then you adjust if the player doesn't exercise.
   28. bond1 Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4324948)
I'm certainly going to miss Nick Swisher. He was an unbelievable pickup by the Yanks 5 yrs ago. $8mil per yr for a switchhitting 25 Hrs and decent outfielder. Now, the Yanks have a rainbow colored outfield with speed but 1 punch and 2 Judys. I sure hope all 3 outfielders do better than people expect because I'm going to have to start watching the Angels.

Now there's still a trio of wild and crazy free agent outfielders left in Nick Swisher, Cody Ross and Delmon Young, all with similar stat lines. One guy's funny, another is intense and the last is just plain psycho. I hope Swish winds up withe the Red Sox just to make things interesting.
   29. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: December 14, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4324977)
edit ... oops
   30. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 14, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4324984)
Wouldn't the Rangers have to be in on Swisher now that they've lost Hamilton?
   31. SG Posted: December 14, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4325018)
The amount of money that the Yankees will save by dipping down for one year in '14 seems huge. I obviously have no idea what I'm talking about, but I can't fathom that decreased demand in one season of tickets (and tv ratings, etc) could offset that.


I'm not sure about that. This article explains a lot about revenue sharing and tax rebates as it pertains to the Yankees and this is mentioned in the comments.

"They would get from the rebate program: 11.35mm in 2014, 17.03mm in 2015, & 22.72mm in 2016. That is 51.1mm total for all three years.. "

If a marginal win is worth $6M for the Yankees, it's not hard to see that putting an 85 win team on the field could cost them a lot more than the $11.35M they'd get back for being under the cap.

This is a money grab, plain and simple. It's their right, but it's also their fans' right to not like it and perhaps reciprocate by not supporting the product as intensely.
   32. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 14, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4325154)
That's just the rebates, though. There's also the luxury tax reset to consider. 17.5% instead of 50% is probably a bigger deal, especially since the rebate gets smaller each year that they go over the cap again.
   33. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4325172)
Does the fact that they resigned Ichiro mean anything about their "certainty" that Gardner is going to be ready to play on Opening Day?
   34. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4325185)
Other than Granderson and Gardner, the outfielders on the Yankees 40-man roster are Chris Dickerson, Zoilo Almonte, Ramon Flores, and Melky Mesa. So I think the idea that they view Ichiro as just Gardner insurance is pretty far-fetched. I think they're planning on having both Gardner and Suzuki in the opening day lineup.
   35. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: December 14, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4325210)
Other than Granderson and Gardner, the outfielders on the Yankees 40-man roster are Chris Dickerson, Zoilo Almonte, Ramon Flores, and Melky Mesa. So I think the idea that they view Ichiro as just Gardner insurance is pretty far-fetched.


Free C-Dick! Seriously, every time he gets in a game, it turns out well.
   36. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:24 PM (#4325226)
If a marginal win is worth $6M for the Yankees, it's not hard to see that putting an 85 win team on the field could cost them a lot more than the $11.35M they'd get back for being under the cap.

This is a money grab, plain and simple. It's their right, but it's also their fans' right to not like it and perhaps reciprocate by not supporting the product as intensely.


Man, where is Yankee Redneck when you need him?
   37. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4325228)
Holy crap, they do have players named "Zoilo Almonte" and "Melky Mesa". That sounds like a poorly calibrated random baseball player generator.

Where's Sixto Sanchez and Yorvit Molina?
   38. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: December 14, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4325230)
Where's Sixto Sanchez and Yorvit Molina?


Or Vladimir Guerrero?
   39. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: December 14, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4325240)
Holy crap, they do have players named "Zoilo Almonte" and "Melky Mesa". That sounds like a poorly calibrated random baseball player generator.

In the first Front Office Football, I drafted a QB named Chili Mac Beethoven. I #### you not.
   40. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4325252)
   41. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: December 14, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4325259)
That was the funniest thing I've seen in a while.
   42. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4325459)
Suzuki's WARP over the last two years barely escapes replacement-player status. They should have let him go and got somebody young with some upside.
   43. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 15, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4325464)
@RTG - that was borderline racist but very funny, thanks for the link
   44. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: December 15, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4325515)
Suzuki's WARP over the last two years barely escapes replacement-player status.

This may be true, but if he plays 2 full seasons, he's good for another, what 350 hits? Two years of 175 would be career lows, but get him to 2,950.
   45. flournoy Posted: December 15, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4325606)
Years ago, I had a player named Haywood Jablomey in Baseball Mogul. I'm pretty sure that was not an accident.

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