I'm disappointed--he's fallen behind Verlander in K's (100 to 103)

(but he's still at .627 TTO %age)

I remember back in 2004 when Dunn broke the single season strikeout record that had stood for 34 years. Now, just eight seasons later, that season is 10th all time. The record was broken three straight years from 2007-09. And if Reynolds' '09 and '10 seasons had been swapped, he'd have broken the record three straight years (by fairly comfortable margins each time). Dunn even beat his '04 strikeouts in 2010, but by then 199 strikeouts was nothing to write home about.

Adam Dunn is enjoying a spectacular bounce-back season from his nightmarish 2011 campaign. Presently, he is on pace for 58 HR, 132 RBI, 127 BB … and 252 Ks.

That's a very manly line.

The comparison in the article with Pujols is pure comedy. When Albert hit his 400th home run he had ~1250 fewer Ks than Dunn has right now. Dunn makes Pujols look like Joe Sewell.

Wait, so RBI is a good way to determine how many runs a player creates?

Ivan - I think you may be kidding in your post, because you seem bright enough to know that no one thinks that's true. But the concept here, as I understand it, goes like this: People who have high HR/RBI ratios either a) happen to hit their homers with few people on base, which is unlikely although possible (check for men on base ahead of the homer guys and other homer guys batting right ahead of yours), or b) don't do anything that drives in runs except for hitting homers. Their batting averages are low, their frequencies of extra base hits other than HRs are low, etc. I think the author's point is that, since strikeouts produce zero RBIs, while things like sacrifice flies and slow groundouts and such do produce a few, the current trend towards accepting more and more Ks to get more and more HRs has reached the point of diminishing returns. I have no idea whether or not this is true, but I think that's the point the author is trying to make. - Brock Hanke

As so often, the facts that Dunn has a low batting average (and that a low batting average is not a good thing) are not in doubt. They're offset by his high OBP and his very high SLG, so he's a good player, though he's not as good as Pujols or Ted Williams or Lou Gehrig, which is also unsurprising. But it seems sometimes that just allowing for his talent and his limitations isn't enough; there has to be some scandal over the composition of his stat line. But he is what he is and can be; he isn't likely suddenly to become George Brett just because he decides to cut down on his strikeouts.

Dunn tried to bunt last night with a runner on first and nobody out. He fouled off Billingsley's high fastball, but it would have been an easy single if he could have sent it anywhere near third because of the shift.

#5 Brock -- I'm flattered you think I'm bright enough to know that, but it seems to me that the author is implicitly saying that RBI are important since he made them the dependent variable in his analysis. I would think that if he really believed that strikeouts should have a different linear weight that other outs he should have analyzed it that way.

#5 Brock -- I'm flattered you think I'm bright enough to know that, but it seems to me that the author is implicitly saying that RBI are important since he made them the dependent variable in his analysis. I would think that if he really believed that strikeouts should have a different linear weight that other outs he should have analyzed it that way.

I don't think the author is claiming that RBIs are, in and of themselves, important. Just the fact that Dunn could be the first guy to hit 400 homers before reaching 1,000 RBIs is reflective of how Dunn's game is different than other high-walk, high-homer hitters. It's really just another way of demonstrating how Dunn is the most TTO of sluggers.

And, to answer Bob's point, it isn't necessarily a criticism to discuss the composition of Dunn's stat line, and shouldn't automatically be interpreted as such.

How did Dunn earn his nickname of "Big Donkey"?
He is certainly large of stature and body-mass; but I don't find him donkey-like except for his contiual habit of not learning how to hit/lay off certain pitches.

In the shower.

With Jack Cust and the A's, the complaint was that he was too passive with runners on base and actually was looking to draw a walk instead of driving in the runner. He would strike out looking and get booed by the home fans. He did have a pretty solid OPS though.

He was a QB prospect in HS; he was fast at one point.

People who have high HR/RBI ratios either a) happen to hit their homers with few people on base, which is unlikely although possible (check for men on base ahead of the homer guys and other homer guys batting right ahead of yours), or b) don't do anything that drives in runs except for hitting homers.

Or c) have fewer runners on base when they come up to the plate, which is a function of the OBP of the hitters in front of him. I have no idea whether or not this is the case with Dunn.

Hell, Adam Dunn used to be a SS.

it isn't necessarily a criticism to discuss the composition of Dunn's stat line, and shouldn't automatically be interpreted as such

Agreed, and I shouldn't have implied that. Dunn's methods are very interesting, and the occasional moral outrage from an anti-K commentator shouldn't tar all analysis of them.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, (requiring WAR_bat<.1*HR), sorted by greatest Home Runs

                                                 
Rk             Player  HR WAR/pos   Age    G    PA
1          Sammy Sosa 609    54.8 20-38 2354  9896
2    Harmon Killebrew 573    55.8 18-39 2435  9833
3        Fred McGriff 493    48.1 22-40 2460 10174
4      Carlos Delgado 473    40.5 21-37 2035  8657
5        Jose Canseco 462    39.2 20-36 1887  8129
6        Dave Kingman 442    14.8 22-37 1941  7429
7       Juan Gonzalez 434    35.1 19-35 1689  7155
8        Paul Konerko 408    26.3 21-36 2057  8409
9    Andres Galarraga 399    28.4 24-43 2257  8916
10         Joe Carter 396    15.6 23-38 2189  9154
11        David Ortiz 393    35.5 21-36 1807  7539
12          Adam Dunn 388    14.1 21-32 1635  6842
13      Harold Baines 384    34.0 21-42 2830 11092
14       Frank Howard 382    33.8 21-36 1895  7352
15       Albert Belle 381    36.9 22-33 1539  6676
16        Greg Vaughn 355    27.7 23-37 1731  7070
17            Lee May 354    23.9 22-39 2071  8219
18         Carlos Lee 353    25.2 23-36 2001  8379
19    Alfonso Soriano 352    23.6 23-36 1666  7160
20        Chili Davis 350    34.2 21-39 2436  9997
21      Tino Martinez 339    25.1 22-37 2023  8044
22         Don Baylor 338    24.4 21-39 2292  9401
23         Joe Adcock 336    30.1 22-38 1959  7302
24         Derrek Lee 331    31.0 21-35 1942  7963
25        Shawn Green 328    31.3 20-34 1951  7963
25          Mo Vaughn 328    24.6 23-35 1512  6410

Adam Dunn has come up to bat with men on 3212 times with a total of 4427 runners on base. That is 1.38 baserunners per PA.

Since 1990 there have been 29 players with total PA between 6500 and 7100. Adam Dunn is 14th in RBI of that group.

Mark Kotsay had the same amount of PA as Dunn but has less RBI than him. Kotsay has had 3,003 PA with men on for a total of 4,104 baserunners. That is a 1.37 baserunners per.

Matt Williams had 6 more PA than Dunn (from 1990) and had significantly more RBI than Dunn. Williams had 3,336 PA with runners on and a total of 4,713 baserunners. That is 1.41 baserunners per.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, (requiring WAR_bat<.05*HR), sorted by greatest Home Runs

                                    
Rk           Player  HR WAR/pos   PA
1      Dave Kingman 442    14.8 7429
2        Joe Carter 396    15.6 9154
3         Adam Dunn 388    14.1 6842
4     Cecil Fielder 319    14.7 5939
5      Ruben Sierra 306    13.0 8782
6       Eric Karros 284     7.8 7100
7       Dean Palmer 275    10.6 5513
8    Dante Bichette 274     3.0 6856
9       Matt Stairs 265    11.7 6024
10       Tony Clark 251    10.1 5120

14% of Dunn's baserunners would score. MLB average is 15%
17% of Williams' baserunners would score.
19% for JGon.
16% for Karros
16% for Salmon
16% for Huff
16% for Snow
15% for DeShields
14% for Furcal
14% for Young
14% for Henderson

Was Adam Dunn a leadoff hitter?

#17 and #19 are a lot more interesting than looking at RBI. Dante Bichette is awesome!

Just at first glance, on that list in #14 Dunn's WAR/pos / PA seems to be below every player other than Dave Kingman and Joe Carter.

The splits for Dunn are here.

He had 71 PAs hitting first in the order. Awful batting average, but high slugging. It is the 2nd highest tOPS+ batting position for him, just 1 behind batting 2nd.

6 Dave Kingman 442 14.8 22-37 1941 7429
.
.
.
10 Joe Carter 396 15.6 23-38 2189 9154
.
12 Adam Dunn 388 14.1 21-32 1635 6842

I knew Kingman didn't get much buck for his bang, but Carter and Dunn were/are nearly as bad. Reduce their HRs to a normal amount, and these guys may not have even cracked replacement level...

Reduce their HRs to a normal amount, and these guys may not have even cracked replacement level...

True, but it's not like Adam Dunn has lucked into 350 of his home runs. Have you seen the home runs he hits? I mean, take away his speed and Rickey Henderson is just a guy. Take away his fastball and Nolan Ryan would have been lucky to make the majors.

I mean, take away his speed and Rickey Henderson is just a guy.

Well, a guy who knew how to take a walk and could hit the occasional homer.

Well, a guy who knew how to take a walk and could the occasional homer.

I didn't say he couldn't make the majors. He'd be Eddie Yost.

But he is what he is and can be

Except he's become something different, hence the attention.

2001-9: 26.5% K/PA
2010: 30.7%
2011: 35.7% and one of the worst seasons ever
2012: 35.9%

Only 12 seasons of 200+ PA with a K-rate like that, Dunn and Nicholoson are the only ones with two. It's not exactly a list of awesome hitters. Well, they are awesome in terms of power.

Up through 2010, Dunn was already pretty unique in ML history. He then had an historically awful season. And now he's beoming even more unique (eat that language mavens) and is on pace to shatter the K record. Of course he's going to draw attention. And he is a different beastie now than he used to be.

I mean, take away his speed and Rickey Henderson is just a guy.

Bill James did say, "If you could split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers." Maybe one of them would have been the slow one. :)

Mitch Williams on MLB Network the other day: "Adam Dunn is not known for taking pitches."

Mitch Williams on MLB Network the other day: "Adam Dunn is not known for taking pitches."

This reminds me of the time I heard a commentator refer to the Phillies infield (which had Ryan Howard in it mind you) as extremely strong with the exception of Chase Utley, who made up for it with his bat.

[28] Up through 2010, Dunn was already pretty unique in ML history. He then had an historically awful season. And now he's beoming even more unique (eat that language mavens) and is on pace to shatter the K record. Of course he's going to draw attention

Also, growth in the rate of strikeouts/PA is arguably the biggest driver of the growth in MLB-wide TTO%. Many fans and writers would rather watch more fielding and baserunning than TTO-ball.

Reduce their HRs to a normal amount, and these guys may not have even cracked replacement level

Cut off their arms and legs, and they probably wouldn't even get drafted.

Ivan (#8) - The point about the dependent variable is a good one. I was trying to avoid the concept of whether RBI are "important" because that discussion ends up going sour real fast. And you are also right in that the author's intent didn't seem that clear to me, either. I came up with what I did because it was the best interpretation I could make of what he said. But if he had been really clear, I would not have had to make any such decision. Your idea of a linear weights analysis of strikeouts is a good one, too.

Jolly (#14) - I don't understand the difference between your "c" and my "a" concept. On the other hand, I may not have been completely clear in my paragraph, either. One sub-point that I was trying to make is that the number of baserunners in front of you is influenced not only by their OBPs but also by the presence of a homer-hitter right in front of you, gobbling up RBI that would have been yours if the guy hit singles instead of homers. Bill James makes that point about Hack Wilson's record. He notes that Wilson benefitted from a lineup that had high-OBP / low-power guys in front of him, and that this sort of offense is rare nowadays, because everyone at the top or middle of the lineup hits some homers. In 1929, Wilson had Rogers Hornsby hitting right in front of him, taking away some RBI opportunities with his own homers. In 1930, Hornsby had an off year, but Gabby Hartnett was back from losing the whole of 1929 to injury. I don't know if Hartnett hit in front of Wilson or behind him. If Hartnett hit in back of Wilson, and Hornsby hit in front of him, that would be part of why Wilson's record occurs in 1930 instead of 1929. - Brock

i am glad adam has rebounded but watching him he sure looks like a whisker away from being out of the league.

i know that reads as kind of loony, but i really struggle to believe that a guy can strike out half the time and stay in the league for any length of time.

if dunn is the harbinger of the game to come i confess that diehard that i am i will be hard pressed to watch that type of game.

Cut off their arms and legs, and they probably wouldn't even get drafted.

'tis only a flesh wound!

In a way, I think Dunn is alot like the anti-Jeter.

For years, Cinci fans and Strat players have pushed the idea (backed by many in the saber community) that Dunn, despite not looking like a good player, actually was very valuable - his OBP and SLG more than made up for his AVE (and by extension, Ks) and defense. After last year, when Dunn couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag and his K rate soared, the "traditionalists" have been having a field day, while the rest of us have to dig deeper into our spreadsheets to find something nice to say about the guy.

But using RBI/HR to somehow show Dunn's deficiencies? That seems like a stretch.

just for kicks i checked out dunn's splits page for 2012

some interesting tidbits

last 28 days: .193/.340/.530

dunn is hitting .182 against lefties but of his 14 hits 9 have gone for extra bases including 7 homers

dunn has 2 hits in 19 at bats in the 7th inning. adam hates the 7th inning. inningist!

dunn has 7 homers and 15 rbi against the tigers/indians combined. so he's helping the sox beat back the competition.

For years, Cinci fans and Strat players have pushed the idea (backed by many in the saber community) that Dunn, despite not looking like a good player, actually was very valuable - his OBP and SLG more than made up for his AVE (and by extension, Ks) and defense.

By BB Ref WAR, it's pretty close to a dead heat who's been the more valuable player over his career, Dunn or Juan Pierre. Considering it's difficult to find two more different players than those two, I think that's kind of cool.

By BB Ref WAR, it's pretty close to a dead heat who's been the more valuable player over his career, Dunn or Juan Pierre. Considering it's difficult to find two more different players than those two, I think that's kind of cool.

bWAR has Dunn as a historically terrible defender. While I have no doubt he's bad, I'm a bit skeptical that he was -5.2 WAR defensively in 2009. Wouldn't a player have to be cartoonishly, making a mockery of the game bad to put up numbers like that? Incredible that a guy who put up 5 consecutive seasons with 40+ HR and 100+ BB managed to amass a grand total of 9.3 WAR over that stretch.

By BB Ref WAR, it's pretty close to a dead heat who's been the more valuable player over his career, Dunn or Juan Pierre.

But is Dunn better than Nyjer Morgan?

good

adam was cartoonishly bad in 2005 and 2006 before he lost some weight and became just bad in 2007.

dunn split time in 2009 between first and outfield before going first full time in 2010. my guess that the smaller sample size creates some odd outputs. though dunn isn't much at first either as evidenced by the 13 errors in 2010.

By BB Ref WAR, it's pretty close to a dead heat who's been the more valuable player over his career, Dunn or Juan Pierre. Considering it's difficult to find two more different players than those two, I think that's kind of cool.

I've always thought of Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew like this, too... but B-R gives Carew a 20-win advantage, which seems extreme.

I've always thought of Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew like this, too... but B-R gives Carew a 20-win advantage, which seems extreme.

Carew has the advantage in overall ranking because, whereas he didn't look too good playing 2B, he actually wasn't that bad at it. Killebrew not only looked bad at 3B and in the outfield, but the numbers indicate he really was that bad. The bulk of the difference between the two is in defense.

I've long been of the opinion the Twins moved Carew off 2B too soon. Supposedly the decision was fueled by the belief he didn't turn the DP well (didn't he miss most of the 1970 season due to an injury incurred trying to turn two?).

I think Carew and Ernie Banks had some interesting parallels in their careers. No chance to play in the WS, moved off of a key defensive position too soon when they clearly had more value at their original positions than at 1B.