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Friday, May 24, 2013

HHS: Autin: Miguel Cabrera to the max

Baseball Fates, please note (please?): I’m just playing around here! None of these things will actually come to pass; it’s just a way of expressing how hot he’s been so far.

Miguel Cabrera finished Thursday’s game #45 with a .391 BA, .701 slugging, 1.168 OPS, 14 HRs, 55 RBI, 39 Runs, 72 hits, 129 total bases, and an OPS+ well north of 200.

The projection multiplier from 45 to 162 is 3.6, so….

  Heads up, Hack? Bourn’s gift to Miggy (plus Thursday’s daily dinger) put him on a pace of 202 RBI.
  You, too, Babe? Cabrera’s on pace for 464 Total Bases. Ruth’s 1921 record is 457.
  The last qualified season of .680+ slugging: Bonds, 2004. Same goes for OPS of 1.120 or better or OPS+ of 200 or more.
  Last with 250+ hits: Ichiro, 2004, record 262 hits. Cabrera’s pace is 259 hits, which would be #2.
  Last with .380+ BA: Gwynn, 1994. Last in a full season: Brett, 1980. But Brett also played just 117 games that year. The last to hit .380 with 500+ ABs: Carew, 1977.
  Besides Ruth ’21, the only guy with 450+ Total Bases was Hornsby, 1922 (450 even). Last with 400+ Total Bases: Sosa, 2001.
  Cabrera’s batting .391 with a 50-HR pace. No one ever has batted .380+ with 45+ HRs. The most HRs with a .380+ BA is 42 by Hornsby ’22 (.402 BA). The highest BA with 45+ HRs is .378, by Ruth in ’21 (59 HRs) and in ’24 (46 HRs); Ruth is also #3 (.376, 54 HRs in 1920), and tied for #4 (.373, 46 HRs in ’31) along with Gehrig (.373, 47 HRs in ’27).

Cabrera over Detroit’s last 162 regular-season games (161 G for Cabrera):

  .355 BA, 1.092 OPS, 50 HRs, 159 RBI, 125 Runs, 222 Hits, 419 Total Bases, 97 strikeouts.

Thanks to Carlos.

Repoz Posted: May 24, 2013 at 06:05 AM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, tigers

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: May 24, 2013 at 09:08 AM (#4451180)
He just hits and hits and hits.
   2. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: May 24, 2013 at 09:09 AM (#4451182)
Those are pretty amazing numbers. He's far and away the best hitter in baseball today. Looking every bit as dominant as peak Pujols was.

It just shows how incredible Barry Bonds was - for a 4 year stretch he was 100 points better than Cabrera in both OBP and SLG. And that's with Cabrera off to a hot start well above his typcial levels. I suspect that absent Prince Fielder batting behind him, pitchers would be helping Cabrera to a Bonds-like OBP, but we'd miss out on him swinging the bat so much, all the total bases and RBI. It's good for baseball, having those 2 together. Not so good when your team has to pitch to them.
   3. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 24, 2013 at 09:27 AM (#4451188)
Hitting .526/.625/1.526 over the last 7 days. He's as on fire as on fire gets.
   4. Lassus Posted: May 24, 2013 at 09:33 AM (#4451191)
A true chase of Hack Wilson would be awesome for everyone. Think of the RBI threads! Epic.
   5. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 24, 2013 at 10:29 AM (#4451227)
He's as on fire as on fire gets.

As Stephen Colbert noted, that one truck in Benghazi is the gold standard. It's more than half a year later, yet every time we see it, it's still burning.
   6. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: May 24, 2013 at 10:47 AM (#4451240)
I just love the Manny/Ortiz memories the Miggy/Prince combo gives me. And Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez are the new Pedro/Schilling/Lowe combo.
   7. Russ Posted: May 24, 2013 at 11:25 AM (#4451274)
I had Sabathia, Pedroia and Cabrera in a keeper league in 2011 and could only keep two of the three for 2012. I traded Cabrera for Paul Goldschmidt at the trade deadline, thinking that Cabrera was the biggest risk of the three, due to his weight and his DUI issues (which happened at the beginning of the 2011 season), plus he was at 1b by that point, so there should have been cheaper replacements, etc. Goldschmidt has turned out to be better than I thought, but still Cabrera has been way better than I would have ever expected.
   8. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: May 24, 2013 at 11:31 AM (#4451284)
It's quite possible that Miggy's triple crown last year might be his worst season OPS/sabermetrically in the last four seasons. That's pretty amazing.
   9. Rants Mulliniks Posted: May 24, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4451303)
He's as on fire as on fire gets.



Dare I say he's locked in?
   10. Rants Mulliniks Posted: May 24, 2013 at 12:07 PM (#4451325)
Miggy's awesome, but really, he's not Frank Thomas.

First 11 seasons (which included two strike-shortened seasons for Thomas, and the current partial season for Miggy)

Sorry for the formatting.

Miggy - Frank
batting line: .321/.397/.565 - .321/.440/.579
OPS+: 153 - 169
Batting titles: 2 - 1
Home run crowns: 2 - 0
40-homer seasons: 1 - 4
MVP voting: 1 win, 6 top 5 - 2 wins, 5 top 5
BB/K: 734/1133 - 1188/835

Cabrera is basically Thomas, minus 50 walks a season.
   11. SandyRiver Posted: May 24, 2013 at 12:11 PM (#4451329)
Cabrera is basically Thomas, minus 50 walks a season.

And, while far from a defensive whiz, much more valuable in the field. Probably nowhere near 50-walks valuable.

Edit: Season #11 was the last one in which he was FRANK THOMAS, though he remained quite valuable even as the injury bug plagued his later years. One hopes the future is kinder to Miggie.
   12. Brian Posted: May 24, 2013 at 12:37 PM (#4451353)
Thanks Rants, that is a great comparison and insight. Gotta keep telling myself: just the baseball threads, no politics ....
   13. hokieneer Posted: May 24, 2013 at 12:51 PM (#4451371)
Hitting .526/.625/1.526 over the last 7 days. He's as on fire as on fire gets.


He is, and he's completely overshadowed the run Votto has been on this May.

.611/.708/1.000 - last 7
.512/.596/.767 - last 14
.452/.551/.671 - May
   14. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: May 24, 2013 at 01:31 PM (#4451413)
Joey Votto is leading the NL in both hits and walks. That is hard to do, and I wonder if anyone has done that before. Batting title and walks is impressive, and has been done by Williams (4x), Bonds (2x), and Boggs (2x), I'm sure others but those are the ones I checked. But if you walk that much, even if you're the top average hitter it's hard to keep up with the Willie McGees and Juan Pierres who hit lots of singles and make every PA into an AB.

Williams and Bonds never had 200 hit seasons. Boggs did, and led the league once with 240, but did not finish 1st in walks (though he did have an impressive 96).

Anyone know if anyone has led their league in hits and walks the same year?

Edit: I found one. He's not a HOFer or worthy candidate either, though the season where he did this was HOF quality.
   15. JJ1986 Posted: May 24, 2013 at 01:38 PM (#4451416)
My guess was Todd Helton, who did lead the league in hits while drawing 103 walks (good for 4th in the league) once. He also had a season where he was 2nd and 2nd, but almost 40 walks behind somebody named Bonds.
   16. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: May 24, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4451418)
Anyone know if anyone has led their league in hits and walks the same year?

Richie Ashburn.
   17. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: May 24, 2013 at 01:41 PM (#4451422)
Anyone know if anyone has led their league in hits and walks the same year?


Ichiro could have done this, if he had wanted to.
   18. BDC Posted: May 24, 2013 at 01:43 PM (#4451423)
Anyone know if anyone has led their league in hits and walks the same year?

Rogers Hornsby in 1924 and Carl Yastrzemski in 1963, along with Ashburn and the aforementioned non-HOF candidate and investment counselor :)

   19. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: May 24, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4451446)
Not bad. Also Sliding Billy in 1891, and Ross Barnes in 1873 and 1876.
   20. Rants Mulliniks Posted: May 24, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4451467)
Dykstra led in both hits and walks in '93, narrowly. He outhit Mark Grace 194-193, and outwalked Bonds 129-126. He was in a class of his own that year for square feet of Astroturf stained though.
   21. Perry Posted: May 24, 2013 at 03:41 PM (#4451543)
Anyone know if anyone has led their league in hits and walks the same year?


I thought maybe Rose, but no. Had 208/95 one year but didn't lead in either. Cobb had a year with 208/118, led in hits but Eddie Collins had 119 walks.
   22. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: May 24, 2013 at 03:44 PM (#4451545)
It just shows how incredible Barry Bonds was - for a 4 year stretch he was 100 points better than Cabrera in both OBP and SLG.

Yeah, no ####, he was cheating.
   23. Misirlou has S.C.M.O.D.S Posted: May 24, 2013 at 04:41 PM (#4451589)
Anyone know if anyone has led their league in hits and walks the same year?


Lou Gehrig once led the league in walks and had 205 hits. But his hit total was good for only 7th.
   24. gehrig97 Posted: May 24, 2013 at 05:07 PM (#4451611)
just for fun, Wade's H/BB/Ks during his ungodly peak. Never pulled off the H/BB "double-double".

Year     H  BB SO
1983   210  92 36
1984   203  89 44
1985   240  96 61
1986   207 105 44
1987   200 105 48
1988   214 125 34
1989   205 107 51 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/24/2013.
   25. Booey Posted: May 24, 2013 at 05:09 PM (#4451613)
Miggy's awesome, but really, he's not Frank Thomas.


Miggy is one of my favorite players and I've thoroughly enjoyed his career so far, but yeah, as dominant as he is, it is a little strange that people keep acting like they haven't seen this type of hitting in decades. You don't even have to go as far back as Thomas in the 90's; as mentioned, Bonds was way better just ten years ago, and Pujols and Manny were just as good even more recently than that (though Manny was less durable).

I guess Albert's decline the past few seasons has made people forget already just how amazing he was for an entire decade before that. Makes sense, I guess - I remember thinking that Andruw Jones 50 homer season in 2005 was super cool cuz MLB had gone a whopping two seasons without one after experiencing at least one (and usually more) 8 years in a row (1995-2002).
   26. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 24, 2013 at 05:29 PM (#4451623)
It just shows how incredible Barry Bonds was - for a 4 year stretch he was 100 points better than Cabrera in both OBP and SLG.

Yeah, no ####, he was cheating.


Really?

I look at his stat lines in Baseball-Reference and I don't see any footnotes or indicators that say he was cheating or that his stats are considered invalid.
I checked his history in the game and he was never banned from the sport or even suspended.
I guess what you think doesn't matter to the record books.
   27. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 24, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4451654)
Yeah, no ####, he was cheating


He was never caught cheating.
   28. Booey Posted: May 24, 2013 at 06:51 PM (#4451663)
He was never caught cheating.


That wouldn't have been possible, since MLB didn't care to make any attempts to find out who was cheating until the very end of Barry's career. Kinda telling about how big a deal they thought it was at the time...

Edit: Yes, I realize that comment may have been tongue in cheek
   29. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 24, 2013 at 06:58 PM (#4451665)
Bonds had to have some sick months at his peak. Hamilton last year went crazy at the beginning also.
   30. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: May 24, 2013 at 07:37 PM (#4451681)
Bonds had to have some sick months at his peak.


I'm just quickly going through his monthly splits from 2001-04 on Baseball-Reference. The standouts (well, they're all standouts, but you know what I mean) are:

May 2001: .369/.547/1.036
Sept./Oct. 2001: .403/.607/1.078
Aug. 2002: .446/.621/.961
July 2003: .415/.581/1.000
Aug. 2003: .452/.629/1.024
March/Apr. 2004: .472/.696/1.132
Aug. 2004: .414/.615/1.000

I'm sure he had streaks across multiple months that were even better, but I don't have the ability to find those streaks right now.
   31. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 24, 2013 at 07:45 PM (#4451683)
Bonds had to have some sick months at his peak. Hamilton last year went crazy at the beginning also.


March/April 2004: 92 PA, 10 HR, .472/.696/1.132 ... that's a 1.132 SLUGGING, not OPS.
August 2004: 109 PA, 11 HR, .414/.615/1.000

Edit: My real-life namesake gets a Coke.
That March/April 2004 is ridiculous. The OBP is insane (39 walks and 25 hits in 92 PA), but the SLG is mind-numbing.
Has anyone else ever put together a slugging result like that over ~90 consecutive PA?
   32. DavidFoss Posted: May 24, 2013 at 08:17 PM (#4451704)
Has anyone else ever put together a slugging result like that over ~90 consecutive PA?


Babe Ruth, May 11th to June 7th of 1920.

June 7th was a double-header. If you stop the split between the two games its

21 G, 90 PA, .465/.578/1.183

If you don't like that, at the end of the day on June 7th the split was

22 G, 94 PA, .459/.574/1.149

Ruth even started a game as pitcher in that streak. He got the win despite pitching only 4 IP. Spotted a 10-run lead, Hank Thormahlen got a rare 15-out save.
   33. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: May 25, 2013 at 06:54 AM (#4451906)
Bill LeFebvre, 1938: 1.000/1.000/4.000.

Top that, you steroid freaks!
   34. Mefisto Posted: May 25, 2013 at 07:34 PM (#4452214)
Willie Mays first 90 PAs in 1964: .483/.500/1.011 Not quite, but damn close. I'd guess Williams and few others would have similar streaks.

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