Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, December 23, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 23, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 06:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Jim Wisinski
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogKaiser Carlile, 9-Year-Old Bat Boy, Dies After Being Struck by Player's Swing
(1 - 11:13am, Aug 03)
Last: Rafael Bellylard wants a Mets-Cubs wild card game.

Newsblog‘He was crying like a baby’: Tempers flare as Royals lose to Blue Jays 5-2 | The Kansas City Star
(2 - 11:13am, Aug 03)
Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)

NewsblogBBTF 2015 Shooty Memorial Softball Meet-up!
(358 - 11:13am, Aug 03)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogYordano Ventura calls Jose Bautista a “nobody” and accuses him of stealing signs | HardballTalk
(10 - 11:13am, Aug 03)
Last: Spahn Insane

NewsblogOTP - July 2015: Winning the Political Game: Politics is More Like Baseball Than Football
(6404 - 11:12am, Aug 03)
Last: Rickey! is all out of bubblegum

NewsblogIn losing Baseball Hall of Fame vote, timing the only bad thing - Chicago Tribune
(11 - 11:11am, Aug 03)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogZack Wheeler: Why I made the call to Sandy Alderson asking to stay a Met | Newsday
(9 - 11:04am, Aug 03)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogOT: Soccer August 2015
(11 - 10:57am, Aug 03)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

Newsblog10 Degrees: The Mets are on fire and trying to validate themselves, like so many others - Yahoo Sports
(13 - 10:56am, Aug 03)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - July 2015
(1715 - 10:51am, Aug 03)
Last: Moses Taylor

NewsblogOT: Soccer June 2015
(1460 - 10:39am, Aug 03)
Last: ursus arctos

NewsblogBay Area Sports Guy – Madison Bumgarner isn’t racist, he’s a control freak
(45 - 10:20am, Aug 03)
Last: DJS From Suplex City!

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 8-3-2015
(2 - 10:11am, Aug 03)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogTHE CRAZIEST BASEBALL PLAYER COMMERCIALS OF ALL TIME, RATED
(4 - 10:05am, Aug 03)
Last: JE (Jason)

NewsblogREMEMBER WHEN METS WERE A JOKE? | FOX Sports
(26 - 10:01am, Aug 03)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

Page rendered in 0.1763 seconds
48 querie(s) executed