Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, December 23, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 23, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Floundering Pumpkin Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 06:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
phredbird
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-26-16
(56 - 11:40pm, Sep 26)
Last: There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerow

NewsblogOTP 2016 Sep 26: A single for Donald Trump - He doesn’t have to hit a home run to send Hillary to the showers
(505 - 11:35pm, Sep 26)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogMariners catcher Steve Clevenger tweets protesters should be treated 'like animals'
(444 - 11:35pm, Sep 26)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogOT: August 2016 Soccer Thread
(588 - 11:33pm, Sep 26)
Last: Spivey

NewsblogWhy 2016 is the Year of the Home Run
(3 - 11:23pm, Sep 26)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogCarlos Beltran might struggle to make the Hall of Fame
(139 - 10:54pm, Sep 26)
Last: Eric J can SABER all he wants to

NewsblogJose Fernandez Dies In Boating Accident - MLB Trade Rumors
(222 - 10:34pm, Sep 26)
Last: Joe Bivens, Floundering Pumpkin

NewsblogWhat can the Cardinals learn from the Cubs' rise? - St Louis Cardinals- ESPN
(23 - 9:29pm, Sep 26)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogFire Joe Morgan and the Moneyball revolution.
(30 - 8:24pm, Sep 26)
Last: wjones

NewsblogSportswriters Love Marriotts More Than You Love Anything
(22 - 7:11pm, Sep 26)
Last: Rickey! Filipino Diving Team

NewsblogTangotiger Blog:Fans Scouting Report: best fielders in baseball
(12 - 6:49pm, Sep 26)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogWe've got everything you need to see and hear from Vin Scully's final home game | MLB.com
(8 - 6:44pm, Sep 26)
Last: Meatwad

NewsblogIsrael Defeats Great Britain to Advance to WBC
(3 - 5:34pm, Sep 26)
Last: RMc's Got a Lot of Trouble at Stake

NewsblogOTP 2016 Sep 19 - Race for the White House: The Greatest Circus on Earth
(1706 - 5:15pm, Sep 26)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogTwins To Hire Derek Falvey To Oversee Baseball Operations
(1 - 5:03pm, Sep 26)
Last: DL from MN

Page rendered in 0.2377 seconds
47 querie(s) executed