Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, December 24, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:42 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 07:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
The Piehole of David Wells
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogBuster Olney on Twitter: "Sources: Manager Joe Maddon has exercised an opt-out clause in his contract and is leaving the Tampa Bay Rays immediately."
(1 - 12:34pm, Oct 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOT: Politics, October 2014: Sunshine, Baseball, and Etch A Sketch: How Politicians Use Analogies
(3496 - 12:34pm, Oct 24)
Last: Merton Muffley

NewsblogKen Rosenthal on Twitter: Rays’ Friedman going to Dodgers. Colletti remaining as senior advisor.
(93 - 12:32pm, Oct 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-24-2014
(3 - 12:30pm, Oct 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogWall Street didn't kill sabermetrics - Beyond the Box Score
(3 - 12:29pm, Oct 24)
Last: Mayor Blomberg

Newsblog9 reasons Hunter Pence is the most interesting man in the World (Series) | For The Win
(12 - 12:17pm, Oct 24)
Last: Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days

NewsblogWhat's Buster Posey's best trait as a catcher? Here's what his pitchers had to say - Giants Extra
(13 - 12:16pm, Oct 24)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogDealing or dueling – what’s a manager to do? | MGL on Baseball
(53 - 12:15pm, Oct 24)
Last: bobm

NewsblogHow top World Series players ranked as prospects. | SportsonEarth.com : Jim Callis Article
(1 - 12:11pm, Oct 24)
Last: zonk

Newsblog2014 WORLD SERIES GAME 3 OMNICHATTER
(7 - 12:09pm, Oct 24)
Last: Bourbon Samurai

NewsblogRoyals get four AL Gold Glove finalists, but not Lorenzo Cain | The Kansas City Star
(10 - 11:56am, Oct 24)
Last: TDF, situational idiot

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(909 - 11:53am, Oct 24)
Last: Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!

NewsblogDid Adam Dunn Ruin Baseball? – The Hardball Times
(14 - 11:50am, Oct 24)
Last: TDF, situational idiot

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - October 2014
(374 - 11:10am, Oct 24)
Last: steagles

NewsblogThe ‘Little Things’ – The Hardball Times
(1 - 10:40am, Oct 24)
Last: BDC

Page rendered in 0.2112 seconds
52 querie(s) executed