Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, December 24, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:42 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 07:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14!
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogPassan: 10 Degrees: Cole Hamels' trade value might be Phillies' lone bright spot
(3 - 5:48pm, Sep 02)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogTrevor Hoffman's Hall of Fame induction seems inevitable
(77 - 5:46pm, Sep 02)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogBrewers prospect plays every position, all in one game
(13 - 5:46pm, Sep 02)
Last: boteman is not here 'til October

NewsblogThe indisputable selfishness of Derek Jeter
(20 - 5:44pm, Sep 02)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogOT: Politics, September, 2014: ESPN honors Daily Worker sports editor Lester Rodney
(282 - 5:42pm, Sep 02)
Last: tshipman

NewsblogExpanded Rosters Exacerbate Baseball’s Biggest Issue
(22 - 5:35pm, Sep 02)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogRule change means more players to choose from for postseason roster
(13 - 5:29pm, Sep 02)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogOT: September 2014 College Football thread
(5 - 5:22pm, Sep 02)
Last: Gold Star - just Gold Star

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-2-2014
(1 - 5:21pm, Sep 02)
Last: boteman is not here 'til October

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-2-2014
(36 - 5:14pm, Sep 02)
Last: Eric J can SABER all he wants to

NewsblogSpector: Negative run differential doesn't tell whole story for first-place Cardinals
(4 - 4:56pm, Sep 02)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogNewsweek: Can Baseball Get More Interesting to Watch With Big Data?
(6 - 4:54pm, Sep 02)
Last: Hank G.

NewsblogBPP: Why do people still think Jack Morris pitched to the score?
(27 - 4:50pm, Sep 02)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogYankees To Sign Chris Young
(3 - 4:47pm, Sep 02)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)

NewsblogGleeman: Twins ask fans which brand of luxury car they are
(9 - 4:46pm, Sep 02)
Last: vortex of dissipation

Page rendered in 0.1672 seconds
52 querie(s) executed