Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, December 23, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 23, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Floundering Pumpkin Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 06:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sebastian
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 17 July 2017: Love is baseball, family. Keep the politics out
(2476 - 6:52am, Jul 28)
Last: Renegade (((JE)))

NewsblogMLBTR: Rays To Acquire Lucas Duda
(25 - 6:43am, Jul 28)
Last: Leroy Kincaid

NewsblogA look into Albert Pujols’ terrible 2017 - Halos Heaven
(75 - 6:32am, Jul 28)
Last: zachtoma

NewsblogRebellions are built on OMNICHATTER, July 27, 2017
(93 - 6:21am, Jul 28)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogMike Timlin responds to criticisms about his broadcasting skills
(6 - 6:11am, Jul 28)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogHall-Of-Fame Careers That Cooperstown Never Gave The Time Of Day | FiveThirtyEight
(45 - 1:18am, Jul 28)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogDansby Swanson is demoted to Gwinnett, and it needed to happen | Mark Bradley blog
(15 - 12:37am, Jul 28)
Last: Walt Davis

Gonfalon CubsWhat a difference a week makes
(62 - 11:50pm, Jul 27)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogAdrian Beltre ejected for hilarious antics in on-deck circle
(38 - 11:30pm, Jul 27)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogOT: Summer Soccer Thread 2017
(205 - 11:24pm, Jul 27)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Bronson Y Pollo

NewsblogThe Evolution of Positional Differences in Free-Agent Costs | FanGraphs Baseball
(4 - 10:34pm, Jul 27)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogTim Tebow’s no circus act: He’s a real Mets prospect
(41 - 10:34pm, Jul 27)
Last: homerwannabee

NewsblogTrade Deadline Rumors -
(2 - 9:46pm, Jul 27)
Last: Khrushin it bro

NewsblogYankees have a new ace — and reason for Sonny Gray restraint | New York Post
(30 - 6:43pm, Jul 27)
Last: Khrushin it bro

NewsblogOT-NBA off season thread
(1524 - 6:03pm, Jul 27)
Last: aberg

Page rendered in 0.1899 seconds
47 querie(s) executed