Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, December 23, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 23, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 06:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF


Thanks to
Chicago Joe
for his generous support.


You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogRod Carew opens up about his private life and his near-death experience
(59 - 7:19am, Nov 26)
Last: Omineca Greg

(793 - 6:26am, Nov 26)
Last: BrianBrianson

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2015
(1215 - 3:53am, Nov 26)
Last: stevegamer

NewsblogHow Colby Rasmus' big contract played a role in trading Jed Lowrie - Houston Chronicle
(2 - 3:50am, Nov 26)
Last: Davo

NewsblogThe 3-man rotation? It's coming ... sometime, says Bill James
(3 - 3:07am, Nov 26)
Last: zachtoma

NewsblogOT - November* 2015 College Football thread
(858 - 2:50am, Nov 26)
Last: Cooper Nielson

NewsblogOakland A's acquire Jed Lowrie from Houston Astros for RHP Brendan McCurry
(13 - 1:52am, Nov 26)
Last: Drexl Spivey

NewsblogComcast takes shot at Yankees in dispute as cable operator says not many folks watching the games on YES
(10 - 1:14am, Nov 26)
Last: ReggieThomasLives

NewsblogVeteran catcher Geovany Soto agrees to one-year deal with Angels
(1 - 11:47pm, Nov 25)
Last: Dan

NewsblogReport: MLB in 'advanced negotiations' to play games in London
(42 - 10:44pm, Nov 25)
Last: Richard

NewsblogTommy Hutton out as Miami Marlins TV analyst after 19 years | Miami Herald
(20 - 9:46pm, Nov 25)
Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter)

NewsblogStarting pitchers should throw fewer innings |
(45 - 9:10pm, Nov 25)
Last: bobm

NewsblogAlex Avila lands with Chicago White Sox
(4 - 7:43pm, Nov 25)
Last: Greg K

NewsblogFree-agent starters Red Sox may try to sign |
(30 - 6:46pm, Nov 25)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOne way to help improve the Red Sox pitching in 2016: Keep Jackie Bradley
(5 - 6:46pm, Nov 25)
Last: tfbg9

Page rendered in 0.3165 seconds
47 querie(s) executed