Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, December 23, 2012

HHS: Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

Needless to say…I will not be printing this out and taking it to my neighborhood Five-For-Uno Bar.

Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

Repoz Posted: December 23, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matt Welch Posted: December 24, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4331812)
This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

And every guy had more career WAR through age 31 (average of 31, median of 27) than Swisher's 17.9!

If you open the OPS+ band a little bit, narrow the search to corner OFs & 1Bmen, and pay attention to WAR, you can build a more useful list of guys like Pat Burrell, Bobby Higginson, Steve Kemp, Jason Thompson, and so on. Not a one of them would be within spitting distance of the Hall of Fame.

   2. J.R. Wolf Posted: December 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4331878)
Another long-term contract on a guy over thirty? What are the odds that the team hasn't just acquired an albatross? 30%? 40%?
   3. Joe Bivens, Floundering Pumpkin Posted: December 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4331917)
A little bit Bill Hicks, a little bit Carrot Top.
   4. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2012 at 06:09 AM (#4332186)
Well, I GUESS you can try to compare Swisher to Clemente, Hayes and Beltran, if you're willing to ignore speed and defense. Note that I said "try", not "succeed." - Brock Hanke

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Eugene Freedman
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 22 May 2017: George W. Bush photobombs a sports reporter
(1319 - 1:30am, May 26)
Last: Jay Z

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(4288 - 1:30am, May 26)
Last: PASTE does not get put on waivers in August

NewsblogMy OMNICHATTER is so big, it has its own zip code, for May 25, 2017
(25 - 1:17am, May 26)
Last: LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim

Gonfalon CubsHapp
(38 - 12:56am, May 26)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogFirst-Place Yankees Aren’t Faring Nearly as Well at the Ticket Office
(6 - 12:54am, May 26)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogNew rules change Trade Deadline strategy | MLB.com
(10 - 12:32am, May 26)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogModern Baseball Writing | Articles | Bill James Online
(38 - 11:46pm, May 25)
Last: 6 - 4 - 3

NewsblogInside Baseball AL Notes | Royals Slow Playing Their Free Agents
(7 - 11:41pm, May 25)
Last: Ardo

NewsblogAngels' Mike Trout continues his remarkable start to the season with another home run
(37 - 11:36pm, May 25)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogSan Francisco Giants: Analyzing Jeff Samardzija's bad luck | SI.com
(13 - 11:13pm, May 25)
Last: Ardo

NewsblogOT: March-April 2017 Soccer Thread
(535 - 10:57pm, May 25)
Last: Sean Forman

NewsblogWhere Did the Great Hollywood Baseball Movie Go?
(122 - 9:43pm, May 25)
Last: Jay Z

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-25-2017
(13 - 9:17pm, May 25)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogHeyman: Twins expected to pass on Hunter Greene
(4 - 7:40pm, May 25)
Last: PASTE does not get put on waivers in August

NewsblogKEVIN COONEY: Long before you can laugh, the Phillies are a crying shame | Phillies Talk | buckscountycouriertimes.com
(10 - 7:34pm, May 25)
Last: catomi01

Page rendered in 0.2600 seconds
47 querie(s) executed