In 1996, Roger Clemens had an offseason by his standards, off enough that it may have been the spur to get him on steroids. It certainly earned him a ticket out of Boston, off to a new team and a career rebirth in Toronto, and at the time, his departure might not have seemed unwarranted. By traditional metrics, 1996 was but a mediocre prelude for Clemens to winning back-to-back Cy Young awards and going 41-13 with a 2.33 ERA over 1997 and 1998. Clemens went 10-13 with a 3.63 ERA for the Red Sox in 1996, walking the most batters of his career with 106. Pushing 35, he looked to be on the decline, a shell of his once-dominant self.
Clemens did lead the American League in strikeouts in 1996 with 257. And in hindsight, we also know that he led the AL in strikeouts per nine innings with 9.5 and finished second in WAR with 7.7. In fact, it’s one of the best losing seasons for a starting pitcher in baseball history.
One of my colleagues here, Doug, did a post a few days ago on if Matt Cain was the unluckiest pitcher ever. The post got me thinking. Doug looked at Cain’s career numbers compared to other unlucky hurlers, so I decided to take another look and compile some of unluckiest seasons for pitchers in baseball history.
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Ray (RDP)This makes no sense. If we accept the thrust of McNamee's story -- and McNamee is the only evidence Clemens used steroids -- Clemens started using in 1998, not in 1997. And was a relative novice on the subject when he approached McNamee in mid-June of 1998.
Essentially we're asked to believe that Clemens came off a historic season in 1997 and then, somewhere in the middle of the next season, suddenly decided to use steroids.
I grant that in mid-June of 1998 Clemens was "only" about 7-6, 3.50 ERA (though striking out a batter an inning), and he was lights out thereafter. But any way you slice it, it makes no sense that *1996* was the motivator for Clemens using steroids.
Eh. We have no idea about any of this stuff. Maybe 1996 makes Clemens start thinking about steroids, and he doesn't happen to meet someone with access, who he trusts, until mid 1998.
Maybe. But people should at least inform themselves of what McNamee's story is, and not present this as "Off year in 1996; started using steroids when he went to Toronto and had two great years."
42ip, 22h, 9bb, 35k, 1 ER 2 wins 3 losses.
The ER was a ninth inning HR by Tony Gwynn in the fifth and final start of the month by Fernando. The Padres beat Fernando 1-0.
Lowest WL% since 1913, minimum 140 IP, 100 ERA+ and 3 pitching WAR
Player W L W-L% ERA+ WAR IP Year Tm LgEddie Smith 4 17 .190 119 3.4 196.2 1937 PHA AL
Lou Brissie 7 19 .269 113 3.6 246.0 1950 PHA AL
Steve Rogers 7 17 .292 117 4.4 230.0 1976 MON NL
Andy Benes 6 14 .300 107 3.7 172.1 1994 SDP NL
Brandon Webb 7 16 .304 129 3.1 208.0 2004 ARI NL
Matt Cain 7 16 .304 123 3.9 200.0 2007 SFG NL
Fernando Arroyo 8 18 .308 103 3.6 209.1 1977 DET AL
Howard Ehmke 9 20 .310 122 3.9 260.2 1925 BOS AL
Al Widmar 7 15 .318 104 3.1 194.2 1950 SLB AL
Dennis Lamp 7 15 .318 122 3.9 223.2 1978 CHC NL
Jim Abbott 7 15 .318 144 5.5 211.0 1992 CAL AL
Murry Dickson 10 20 .333 107 3.1 226.1 1954 PHI NL
Turk Farrell 10 20 .333 124 7.4 241.2 1962 HOU NL
Bruce Berenyi 9 18 .333 110 4.9 222.1 1982 CIN NL
Danny Jackson 9 18 .333 114 3.6 224.0 1987 KCR AL
Gary Ross 8 16 .333 111 3.0 225.0 1976 CAL AL
Nolan Ryan 8 16 .333 142 5.5 211.2 1987 HOU NL
Bucky Walters 11 21 .344 108 3.4 258.0 1936 PHI NL
Ken Chase 10 19 .345 114 3.1 232.0 1939 WSH AL
Steve Carlton 10 19 .345 111 4.6 253.2 1970 STL NL
Yes, but he got paid back with the 11-0 year.
It could be that your premise is wrong, and that he never used.
Or it could be that he did use, and he started using for any number of possible reasons, 1996 being one of the unlikelier ones.
But if poor performance qualifies as a reason why he started using, then great performance should qualify as a reason why he _wouldn't_ have started using. But, of course, nobody considers the latter.
Highest WL% since 1912, minimum 100 IP, ERA+ less than 100 and pitching WAR less than 3.0
Player W L W-L% ERA+ WAR IP Year Tm LgPaul Abbott 17 4 .810 98 0.9 163.0 2001 SEA AL
Lefty Gomez 24 7 .774 98 2.5 265.1 1932 NYY AL
Jack Bentley 16 5 .762 97 1.5 188.0 1924 NYG NL
Larry Christenson 19 6 .760 99 0.5 219.1 1977 PHI NL
Chuck Dobson 15 5 .750 89 -0.2 189.0 1971 OAK AL
Russ Meyer 15 5 .750 94 -0.2 191.1 1953 BRO NL
Dwight Gooden 19 7 .731 98 2.7 232.2 1990 NYM NL
Storm Davis 19 7 .731 85 -0.3 169.1 1989 OAK AL
Roxie Lawson 18 7 .720 89 0.8 217.1 1937 DET AL
Larry Benton 17 7 .708 93 1.6 233.1 1927 TOT NL
Hooks Dauss 21 9 .700 90 1.2 256.1 1919 DET AL
Joe Saunders 16 7 .696 95 1.6 186.0 2009 LAA AL
Jack Scott 16 7 .696 99 2.1 220.0 1923 NYG NL
Don Gullett 18 8 .692 97 1.7 228.1 1973 CIN NL
Lee Meadows 20 9 .690 98 0.7 226.2 1926 PIT NL
Brett Cecil 15 7 .682 99 2.0 172.2 2010 TOR AL
Milt Wilcox 17 8 .680 98 0.6 193.2 1984 DET AL
Lefty Williams 17 8 .680 90 1.3 230.0 1917 CHW AL
Kevin Tapani 19 9 .679 90 1.8 219.0 1998 CHC NL
Jack Coombs 21 10 .677 94 1.5 262.1 1912 PHA AL
And yes, the steroids thing is dumb. Clemens could have started using because of his off year in 1996, I guess, but that seems like one of the least likely events to have caused him to do so (only outdone by McNamee's claim). 1993 and 1995 would be much better possibilities, if he did.
I hate when people write stuff like this, as if they were the geniuses who discovered K/9, as opposed to those neanderthals back in 1996. Of course we knew what Clemens' K/9 was contemporaneously in 1996. I'm pretty sure the Macmillan Encyclopedia listed K/9 ever since its first edition first came out in 1969.
And Canseco, who named a billion people who used with him, has not done so with Clemens, and has plenty to gain by doing so. It seems to me that if you go down the Canseco road at all, you need to take it all the way, and when you do, it seems to point to Clemens NOT using.
Quoting now:
-----------------------
"I have never had a conversation with Clemens in which he expressed any interest in using steroids or human growth hormone," Canseco said in the affidavit. "Clemens has never asked me to give him steroids or human growth hormone, and I have never seen Clemens use, possess or ask for steroids or human growth hormone."
Canseco continued: "I have played on three teams with Roger Clemens and I have no reason to believe that he has ever used steroids, human growth hormone, or any other performance enhancing drugs."
In his affidavit, Canseco said, "I specifically recall that Clemens did not come to the bar-b-que. I remember this because I was disappointed that he did not attend. I later learned that he had a golfing commitment that day and could not attend the party."
They had it for league leaders (top 5) but not on individual breakdowns.
- - dream sequence fade in - -
It seems to me that if you go down the Canseco road at all, you need to take it all the way, and when you do...
- - dream sequence fade out - -
"I later learned that he had a golfing commitment that day and could not attend the party."
Wait, wait, wait, so are you guys saying that Roger paid off Jose, resulting in the golfing explanation? I have so much to learn around here...
Yeah, I was a huge Clemens fan. I had him on my roto team that year, and it was extremely frustrating. I got him again, in a late round, the next year, because I knew he was still great.
Look at the defense on the team: C Stanley/Haselman 1B Vaughn 2B Frye/Cordero SS Valentin 3B Naehring LF Greenwell/Jefferson/Mitchell CF Tinsley/Bragg/Cuyler/Cole/Hosey RF O'Leary/Malave
The other Red Sox starters were Tim Wakefield, Aaron Sele, Tom Gordon, Vaughan Eshelman, Jamie Moyer, all of whom had at least reasonable success in other seasons. Their ERAs for the year: Wakefield 5.14, Gordon 5.59, Sele 5.32, Eshelman 7.08, Moyer 4.50.
Highest WL% since 1912, minimum 140 IP, 12 Wins and ERA+ less than 96
Player W L W-L% ERA+ WAR IP Year Tm LgJim Coates 13 3 .813 83 -1.0 149.1 1960 NYY AL
Ed Wells 12 3 .800 83 0.9 150.2 1930 NYY AL
Bob Wickman 14 4 .778 90 -0.4 140.0 1993 NYY AL
Ken Holloway 13 4 .765 93 1.0 157.2 1925 DET AL
Chuck Dobson 15 5 .750 89 -0.2 189.0 1971 OAK AL
Russ Meyer 15 5 .750 94 -0.2 191.1 1953 BRO NL
Glen Perkins 12 4 .750 95 1.4 151.0 2008 MIN AL
Russ Van Atta 12 4 .750 93 1.4 157.0 1933 NYY AL
Storm Davis 19 7 .731 85 -0.3 169.1 1989 OAK AL
Ralph Branca 13 5 .722 94 1.0 186.2 1949 BRO NL
Bert Cole 13 5 .722 93 0.1 163.0 1923 DET AL
Roxie Lawson 18 7 .720 89 0.8 217.1 1937 DET AL
Slick Castleman 15 6 .714 94 0.6 173.2 1935 NYG NL
Bullet Joe Bush 15 6 .714 72 -0.6 200.1 1913 PHA AL
Larry Benton 17 7 .708 93 1.6 233.1 1927 TOT NL
Hooks Dauss 21 9 .700 90 1.2 256.1 1919 DET AL
Eric Milton 14 6 .700 95 1.3 201.0 2004 PHI NL
Byron Houck 14 6 .700 67 -1.0 176.0 1913 PHA AL
Joe Saunders 16 7 .696 95 1.6 186.0 2009 LAA AL
Dillon Gee 13 6 .684 84 1.6 160.2 2011 NYM NL
Kevin Slowey 13 6 .684 91 0.8 155.2 2010 MIN AL
Mark Gardner 13 6 .684 93 1.4 212.0 1998 SFG NL
James Baldwin 13 6 .684 86 -0.2 159.0 1998 CHW AL
Johnny Allen 15 7 .682 89 1.6 184.2 1933 NYY AL
Eddie Plank 15 7 .682 91 1.6 185.1 1914 PHA AL
On the flip side, what's the worst Cy Young season (by a starting pitcher) that you can think of? I checked a couple of obvious candidates: Pete Vuckovich 114 ERA+, 2.7 WAR; LaMarr Hoyt 115 ERA+, 3.7 WAR.
Oh, and then there is the slightly different flavor of luck enjoyed by Bob Welch in his legendary season: getting 33 decisions in only 238 IP, and 27-6 on 126 ERA+.
That batting line would have been good for an OPS+ of about 115 (Milwaukee was a very good pitcher's park to boot) As a side bonus, he gave up 32 SB, but with 16 CS he pretty much broke even on high activity. The story of Ted Simmons as a catcher.
Still no evidence (either way) about clutch pitchers, but Vukovich meets many definitions of clutch that year. He put a ton of runners on base and did a great job of stranding them.
.258/.331/.340 with runners on. .227/.315/.327 with RISP.
Oh yeah, the bullpen also did a really good job with the runners they inherited from him. (That's clutch too right? Clutch judgment I guess)
BTW, Hershiser really got screwed by the Dodgers offense from 1987-1989. Deserved to win the Cy Young each of those three years, yet could only muster a .500 record outside of 1988. Give him three Cys and he's in the Hall of Fame. As it is, he's the HOF candidate that people think Jack Morris is.
And got the Cy Young over Clemens, who went 21-6 with a 1.93 ERA (213 ERA+) with much better K/BB numbers and 9.5 WAR...
Of course, 11 years later, Clemens went 20-3 and got Mussina's Cy Young.
And 18-4 to pick up Randy Johnson's award in '04. Clemens probably won about as many CYAs as he should have, but got some in years he shouldn't while missing out on others he should have received.
9-20 101 ERA+
Do you still have yours? I had two editions of it, but have no idea where they are now...
Actually, there is one slight addendum to the list in [6]: it should say ERA+ greater than 100; otherwise 1988 Pete Smith would be listed.
Ben Sheets 2004 - 237 IP, 162 ERA+, 264-32 K-BB ratio, 12-14 record and gets one third-place CYA vote.
Player Year W L WARRk Player Year W L WAR
1 Turk Farrell 1962 10 - 20 7.4
2 Phil Niekro 1977 16 - 20 8.5
3 Jim Abbott 1992 7 - 15 5.5
4 Dave Roberts 1971 14 - 17 8.5
5 Nolan Ryan 1987 8 - 16 5.5
6 Jon Matlack 1974 13 - 15 8.6
7 Roger Clemens 1996 10 - 13 7.7
8 Ned Garver 1950 13 - 18 7.1
9 Bruce Berenyi 1982 9 - 18 4.9
10 Steve Carlton 1970 10 - 19 4.6
11 David Cone 1993 11 - 14 6.6
12 Terry Forster 1973 6 - 11 5
13 Chris Short 1967 9 - 11 6.6
14 Bert Blyleven 1976 13 - 16 6.7
15 Tommy John 1970 12 - 17 5.7
16 Denny Lemaster 1968 10 - 15 5.3
17 Jim Bunning 1960 11 - 14 6.2
18 R.A. Dickey 2011 8 - 13 4.9
19 Phil Niekro 1978 19 - 18 9.1
20 Warren Spahn 1952 14 - 19 5.8
Yup...and still in the hardened NASA reflector approved box.
Rk Player W L WAR1 Mariano Rivera 75 - 58 56.3
2 Bert Blyleven 287 - 250 90.1
3 Phil Niekro 318 - 274 96.8
4 Bob Friend 197 - 230 48.9
5 Gaylord Perry 314 - 265 96.3
6 Lee Smith 71 - 92 30.3
7 Trevor Hoffman 61 - 75 30.8
8 Ned Garver 129 - 157 35.8
9 Bob Rush 127 - 152 36.1
10 Rick Reuschel 214 - 191 66.3
11 Nolan Ryan 324 - 292 84.8
12 Ken Raffensberger 119 - 154 28.4
13 Tom Candiotti 151 - 164 41
14 Robin Roberts 286 - 245 80.9
15 Larry Jackson 194 - 183 55.6
16 Nap Rucker 134 - 134 41.7
17 Mike Morgan 141 - 186 26
18 Jerry Koosman 222 - 209 58.8
19 Jack Russell 85 - 141 13.1
20 Jon Matlack 125 - 126 38.7
Obviously the relievers don't really belong
and the luckiest
980 Jack Morris 254 - 186 39.3981 Burleigh Grimes 270 - 212 37.2
982 Sam Leever 194 - 100 40.3
983 Andy Pettitte 240 - 138 49.9
984 John Clarkson 328 - 178 82.1
985 Chief Bender 212 - 127 38.5
986 Deacon Phillippe 189 - 109 33
987 Jesse Tannehill 197 - 117 34
988 Mickey Welch 307 - 210 56.5
989 Freddie Fitzsimmons 217 - 146 32.6
990 Allie Reynolds 182 - 107 29
991 Lew Burdette 203 - 144 25.3
992 Bob Caruthers 218 - 99 52.6
993 Art Nehf 184 - 120 23.1
994 Herb Pennock 241 - 162 36.9
995 Dave McNally 184 - 119 21.5
996 Whitey Ford 236 - 106 55.3
997 Larry Corcoran 177 - 89 28.8
998 Christy Mathewson 373 - 188 87.7
999 Bobby Mathews 297 - 248 16.1
Young is pretty famous (at least to Mets fans) for having the record for consecutive losses with 27. Yes, he had a stretch of 171 innings during 1992-1993 over which he went 0-27.
He wasn't a good pitcher over that time period, but he certainly wasn't an 0-27 pitcher (first off, just getting 27 decisions over 171 innings is impressive in its own right). 99 K, 60 BB, 13 HR are decent peripherals, and his ERA of 4.36 would have been good for an 86 ERA+. He did allow a lot of unearned runs (5.41 RA) but even that should get you an occasional win (hell, Roy Halladay went 4-7 in his 10.64 ERA season).
From Wikipedia: During the losing streak, Young converted 12 straight save opportunities and threw 23 2?3 consecutive scoreless innings while filling in for the Mets closer, John Franco. During the streak, Young was 0–14 as a starter and 0–13 as a reliever.
I'm amused when this happens -- when writers are "right", but for all the wrong reasons.
Here's one end of the scale:
Christy Mathewson: actual 373-188, RA+ 332-199
Whitey Ford: actual 236-106, RA+ 218-134
Bob Lemon: actual 207-128, RA+ 176-141 (*)
Herb Pennock: actual 241-162, RA+ 216-181
Dwight Gooden: actual 194-112, RA+ 174-137
Jack Morris: actual 254-186, RA+ 226-199 (yeah, him)
Burleigh Grimes: actual 270-212, RA+ 242-222
Fred Fitsimmons: actual 217-146, RA+ 195-163
Juan Marichal: actual 243-142, RA+ 226-164
Carl Mays: actual 207-126, RA+ 189-146
Clark Griffith: actual 236-143, RA+ 216-160
... skipping to just post-1960 cases ...
Bob Forsch: actual 168-136, RA+ 153-157
Dave Stewart: actual 168-129, RA+ 149-143
Mike Cuellar: actual 185-130, RA+ 167-144
Catfish Hunter: actual 224-166, RA+ 206-178
Now, starting from the other end of the scale. Hoyt Wilhelm would be the most extreme case, and several other relief pitchers land here; I've omitted them on the grounds that W-L just doesn't work for relievers.
Bert Blyleven: actual 287-250, RA+ 322-230 (yeah, him)
Walter Johnson: actual 417-279, RA+ 427-230 (and you already thought he was good)
Bob Friend: actual 197-230, RA+ 212-190
Ned Garver: actual 129-157, RA+ 149-126
Jack Powell: actual 244-256, RA+ 263-225
Dizzy Trout: actual 170-161, RA+ 179-125 (*)
Murry Dickson: actual 172-181, RA+ 183-156
Eppa Rixie: actual 266-251, RA+ 275-224
Gaylord Perry: actual 314-265, RA+ 337-258 (see Marichal for contrast)
Dolf Luque: actual 193-179, RA+ 203-154
Vic Willis: actual 248-208, RA+ 258-186 (*)
Bobo Newsom: actual 211-222, RA+ 220-197
Robin Roberts: actual 286-245, RA+ 295-226
Jerry Koosman: actual 222-209, RA+ 233-193
Tom Seaver: actual 311-205, RA+ 330-201
Some of the other names on his "unlucky" list, in my terms:
Phil Neikro: actual 318-274, RA+ 334-266. Yes, unlucky.
Rick Reuschel: actual 214-191, RA+ 221-174. Yes, unlucky.
Nolan Ryan: actual 342-292, RA+ 326-273. Hmm: got lots of "extra" decisions, doesn't seem unlucky to me.
Larry Jackson: actual 194-183, RA+ 200-162. Yes, unlucky.
I didn't work up Candiotti, Morgan, or Matlack. But another worth mentioning:
Bob Gibson: actual 251-174, RA+ 265-166. Unlucky, and that's with being a good hitter himself.
damn you, shredder, for taking an Abbott line from me
underhanded move, imo
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main