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Saturday, May 19, 2012

HHS: What IS the “traditional” role of a #2 hitter, really?

And the especially comical Morel of the story is…

One reason so many teams get so little out of that spot is … well … they give the job to a mediocre hitter. You’d think it elementary that a manager wants to have his better batters bat the most, but what can you say when the majority of White Sox lineups have had Brent Morel or Gordon Beckham batting 2nd? Their career OBPs before this year were .285 and .318, respectively. Sure, no one foresaw them being as horrid as they’ve been so far — but was there any reason to think either one would do well in the #2 role? Morel was an especially comical choice, going 6 for 43 with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks before that particular experiment was scuttled.

...The ChiSox rank 3rd in OBP from the leadoff spot (.375) and 5th from #3. But their cleanup men (mainly Paul Konerko) rank 11th in PAs with RISP and with any runner on. And so Konerko, batting .362 over all and .387 with RISP, and playing in every game but one, is on pace for 30 HRs, but only 90 RBI.

I offer one last stat line: In 1991, a young sweet-swinging lefty with some pop batted 2nd for the White Sox most of the year and drove in 100 runs on the nose. In 114 games hitting 2nd, he produced 87 RBI (that’s 124 RBI per 162 G), with 21 HRs, a .294 BA and .378 OBP. He sacrificed just 4 times. The White Sox had just 2 other regulars with OPS+ above 98, and they played in a neutral park, but they were well above average in scoring.

That sweet-swinging lefty now makes out the White Sox lineup cards. Robin Ventura, free your mind. Free Adam Dunn. Bat him 2nd!

Repoz Posted: May 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, white sox

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   1. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: May 19, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4135681)
The prototypical #2 always seemed to me like a guy with a decent average, doesn't strike out much, doesn't hit into double plays, good OBP, and a moderate amount of pop. Derek Jeter comes to mind.

edit: What would be the best current lineup of guys by most frequent batting order, given their current hitting skill and needing to field a full team?

Just off the top of my head:
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
SS Derek Jeter
DH David Ortiz
3B Miguel Cabrera
2B Robbie Cano

I can't think of a LF/RF/C/1B that fits best in the bottom of the order, all the really good players hit higher up.
   2. OCF Posted: May 19, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4135702)
Robin Yount, 1982, makes a nice model for a #2 hitter. Alex Rodriguez, 1996, was similar.
   3. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: May 19, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4135713)
If you're instead using an NL lineup with no DH, the lineup gets easier to make:

CF Ellsbury
SS Jeter
LF Braun
3B Cabrera
2B Cano
RF Nelson Cruz
1B Mark Trumbo
C Mike Napoli (yep, over his career he's got more AB in the 8 hole than anywhere else. GJ Scioscia)
P Zambrano
   4. Greg (U)K Posted: May 19, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4135730)
Brent Morel or Gordon Beckham batting 2nd? Their career OBPs before this year were .285 and .318, respectively. Sure, no one foresaw them being as horrid as they’ve been so far

Why would anyone expcet Brent Morel to be anything other than horrid?
   5. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 19, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4135733)
edit: What would be the best current lineup of guys by most frequent batting order, given their current hitting skill and needing to field a full team?
Jeter doesn't bat 2nd, Granderson does. And Granderson's better than Jeter. I'd probably go Kinsler-Granderson-Votto-Tulowitzki-Ortiz at the top of the order. Not too many guys are locked-in 6th/7th/8th hitters, and those that are, aren't very good, so it gets titchy at the bottom.
   6. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: May 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4135738)
Yeah, that makes it much harder, so instead I was using BB-Ref to place batters where they'd hit most frequently over their whole career, and Jeter was a #2 guy for a loooong time. Trumbo, Cruz, and Napoli are probably not going to be eligible for their lineup spots by the end of the year.
   7. Tripon Posted: May 19, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4135750)
Of course, Derek Jeter is a likely hall of famer. Finding a guy like that is hard to do.
   8. bobm Posted: May 19, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4135761)
From B-R P-I:

All of MLB: 5342 Plate Appearances in 2012, batting 2nd

  G.  PA.  R.  AB.   H. 2B 3B. HR RBI. BB IBB. SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP. BA. OBP. SLG. OPS BAbip WPA.  LI RE24
590 5342 508 4773 1238 224 28 110 489 434.  6 880. 41 62 30. 57 120 .259 .325 .387 .712. .296 2.3 1.00.  11


EDIT: 191 batters have a PA as a 2B in 2012
   9. bobm Posted: May 19, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4135767)
For 2012, Batting #2, as Starter, sorted by greatest number of games
                                                                      
Rk              Player        #Matching  PA SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS GDP
1           J.J. Hardy    39 Ind. Games 180 25 .253 .300 .476 .776   7                                                                      

2         Martin Prado    37 Ind. Games 168 19 .324 .389 .500 .889   3                                                                      

3         Elvis Andrus    36 Ind. Games 171 22 .317 .398 .414 .811   4                                                                      

4           Mark Ellis    33 Ind. Games 149 17 .273 .372 .367 .739   2                                                                      

5    Curtis Granderson    28 Ind. Games 124 34 .275 .358 .587 .945   2
                                                                      
6         Jason Kipnis    27 Ind. Games 124 18 .268 .325 .411 .736   3
6     Emilio Bonifacio    27 Ind. Games 122 23 .240 .342 .240 .582   2
                                                                      
8       Dustin Pedroia    26 Ind. Games 114 11 .311 .368 .544 .912   1
8       Brennan Boesch    26 Ind. Games 113 25 .218 .239 .345 .584   4
                                                                      
10       Jamey Carroll    25 Ind. Games 110 11 .221 .321 .253 .574   3
                                                                      
11       Melky Cabrera    23 Ind. Games 105 12 .287 .352 .404 .757   0
11       Dustin Ackley    23 Ind. Games 102 19 .221 .275 .305 .580   0
                                                                      
13         Drew Stubbs    22 Ind. Games 100 27 .298 .327 .457 .784   0
13     Placido Polanco    22 Ind. Games  97 10 .275 .313 .330 .642   2
13       Kelly Johnson    22 Ind. Games 101 26 .250 .376 .440 .817   3
13         Jose Altuve    22 Ind. Games  99 13 .341 .398 .489 .887   3
                                                                      
17    Cliff Pennington    20 Ind. Games  90 15 .247 .315 .346 .660   0
                                                                      
18       Daniel Murphy    19 Ind. Games  86  8 .325 .384 .416 .799   1
18      Howie Kendrick    19 Ind. Games  83 21 .250 .277 .413 .690   2
                                                                      
20          Aaron Hill    18 Ind. Games  79  6 .239 .316 .479 .795   1
20         Alex Gordon    18 Ind. Games  80 10 .343 .425 .557 .982   1
20        Tony Campana    18 Ind. Games  78 14 .288 .338 .348 .687   0
                                                                      
23         Carlos Pena    17 Ind. Games  78 20 .266 .397 .438 .835   1
23       Dexter Fowler    17 Ind. Games  73 20 .188 .268 .328 .596   2
23      Danny Espinosa    17 Ind. Games  78 21 .212 .312 .273 .584   1
23       Darwin Barney    17 Ind. Games  74  8 .279 .329 .382 .711   4
                                                                      
27             Jon Jay    15 Ind. Games  69  6 .400 .455 .517 .971   3
                                                                      
28       Yunel Escobar    14 Ind. Games  61  6 .321 .377 .393 .770   3
                                                                      
29         Jose Tabata    13 Ind. Games  58  9 .255 .281 .345 .626   1
29        Nyjer Morgan    13 Ind. Games  53 11 .204 .235 .204 .439   1
29          Jed Lowrie    13 Ind. Games  62  8 .275 .403 .431 .835   0
29          Coco Crisp    13 Ind. Games  54  7 .260 .315 .280 .595   1
   10. Dan Posted: May 19, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4135834)
The prototypical #2 always seemed to me like a guy with a decent average, doesn't strike out much, doesn't hit into double plays, good OBP, and a moderate amount of pop. Derek Jeter comes to mind.


Derek Jeter averages 16 GIDP per 162 games over his career. He is tied with Paul Konerko for 29th alltime in GIDP. They're also the active leaders in career GIDP.

Derek Jeter has several stengths as a hitter. GIDP avoidance isn't among them.
   11. I Am Not a Number Posted: May 19, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4135847)
I believe the traditional profile of a #2 hitter is someone who you'd want to bat 8th or 9th these days. It used to be a "bat control" guy who could bunt and had a little speed. On-base skills? Not a big concern.

I marvel at the 1961 Yankees who had Richardson and Kubek batting 1-2, and who scored just 80 and 84 runs, respectively, batting ahead of Maris and Mantle all year. I wonder how Joe Maddon would have built a lineup out of that lot. Yogi Berra might have been the leadoff hitter.
   12. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 19, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4135879)
Robin Yount, 1982, makes a nice model for a #2 hitter. Alex Rodriguez, 1996, was similar.


Robin Yount and Alex Rodriguez were arguably the best hitters in the 1982 and 1996 American Leagues, respectively. That's a nice model for any spot in any lineup, especially when the player can also play shortstop.

I'm pretty sure The Book actually suggests that you should put your best hitter in the #2 hole. Which makes a certain amount of sense: you want a high OBP for the sluggers batting 3-4-5; you want a decent SLG because (hopefully) he'll be batting a lot with the leadoff hitter already on base; and, of course, the #2 hitter will get a lot of PAs, and you want your best hitters to get the most PAs. My sense is that the #2 slot is the one with by far the biggest gap between what sabermetrics thinks you should do and what is actually done in a traditional lineup.
   13. Squash Posted: May 19, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4136016)
A small, scrappy, white, low-OBP second baseman, obviously.
   14. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: May 19, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4136026)
I wonder how Joe Maddon would have built a lineup out of that lot. Yogi Berra might have been the leadoff hitter.


The highest non-Mantle OBP on the team belonged to Elston Howard. I'm not sure that even the most ardent adherents of sabrmetrics could have stomached Ellie in the leadoff spot. OTOH, it's not as if Richardson and Kubek were tearing up the basepaths themselves. In a DH league, you might go with a Johnny Blanchard/Bob Cerv platoon.
   15. The District Attorney Posted: May 19, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4136032)
Sure, why not. Howard, Mantle, Maris, Skowron, Yogi, Boyer, Kubek, Richardson. (Ehh, I probably don't need to separate the lefties in 1961, but I'll leave it.)
   16. OCF Posted: May 19, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4136075)
I'm pretty sure The Book actually suggests that you should put your best hitter in the #2 hole.

Kiko, that's largely the point I was trying to make by mentioning Yount and Rodriguez in the first place - that's there's nothing at all wrong with batting a great hitter, even the best hitter in the lineup, in the #2 spot. More recently, hasn't Chase Utley spent a lot of time batting #2 for the Phillies? That works. Keith Hernandez always struck me as a guy whose skills would have been well-suited to the #2 spot; of course, he usually batted #3. Maybe Joe Morgan should have batted #2 for the Big Red Machine. You can't complain too much about having a contender for the batting championship (Griffey, Jr.) in the #2 spot with Morgan #3, but it would have worked the other way around. And yes, I think the Giants should have batted Barry Bonds in the #2 spot. As is was, a lot of his HR were with the bases empty anyway, and that many more PA would have been that many more BB, if nothing else.
   17. OCF Posted: May 19, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4136089)
Missed the editing window. Griffey, Sr., of course.
   18. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 19, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4136152)
Maybe Joe Morgan should have batted #2 for the Big Red Machine.


Morgan batted almost exclusively in the 2 slot for the Reds from 1972 through 1974.
   19. bobm Posted: May 19, 2012 at 11:17 PM (#4136179)
From 1918 to 2012, Batting #2, as Starter, sorted by greatest number of games in all seasons matching the selected criteria


                                                                   
Rk             Player        #Matching   PA   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS GDP
1          Nellie Fox  1711 Ind. Games 7805 .292 .352 .366 .718 134
                                                                   
2        Omar Vizquel  1569 Ind. Games 7137 .277 .344 .361 .704 121
                                                                   
3         Ozzie Smith  1529 Ind. Games 6846 .268 .342 .334 .676  93
                                                                   
4            Jay Bell  1319 Ind. Games 5975 .274 .352 .427 .780 118
                                                                   
5         Derek Jeter  1304 Ind. Games 6025 .314 .385 .455 .839 131
                                                                   
6        Billy Herman  1262 Ind. Games 5767 .302 .363 .411 .774 139
                                                                   
7          Doc Cramer  1258 Ind. Games 5921 .299 .341 .380 .721  53
                                                                   
8       Ryne Sandberg  1217 Ind. Games 5429 .291 .348 .473 .821  79
                                                                   
9     Placido Polanco  1205 Ind. Games 5532 .304 .348 .411 .758 147
                                                                   
10            Al Dark  1152 Ind. Games 5262 .291 .330 .407 .737  93
                                                                   
11          Rod Carew  1132 Ind. Games 5128 .329 .391 .430 .822 108
                                                                   
12         Joe Morgan  1126 Ind. Games 5100 .270 .385 .417 .801  44
                                                                   
13          Red Rolfe  1113 Ind. Games 5287 .289 .360 .414 .773  14
                                                                   
14     Edgar Renteria  1110 Ind. Games 5066 .286 .345 .390 .735 128
14       Johnny Pesky  1110 Ind. Games 5202 .310 .397 .390 .787  78
                                                                   
16        Robin Yount  1069 Ind. Games 4803 .293 .348 .465 .813  75
                                                                   
17      Glenn Beckert  1068 Ind. Games 4742 .289 .324 .354 .677  91
                                                                   
18     Roberto Alomar  1043 Ind. Games 4673 .295 .364 .423 .787  92
                                                                   
19         Larry Bowa  1032 Ind. Games 4620 .264 .299 .327 .626  64
                                                                   
20         Dick Groat  1008 Ind. Games 4542 .283 .327 .366 .693 122
                                                                   
21      Pee Wee Reese   991 Ind. Games 4552 .277 .366 .392 .758 120
                                                                   
22        Buddy Lewis   977 Ind. Games 4502 .300 .363 .421 .784  42
                                                                   
23   Red Schoendienst   965 Ind. Games 4359 .294 .338 .399 .737  93
                                                                   
24       Felix Millan   927 Ind. Games 4165 .281 .325 .342 .666 106
                                                                   
25         Tony Gwynn   896 Ind. Games 3958 .338 .385 .457 .842 117

   20. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 20, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4136201)
Kiko, that's largely the point I was trying to make by mentioning Yount and Rodriguez in the first place - that's there's nothing at all wrong with batting a great hitter, even the best hitter in the lineup, in the #2 spot. More recently, hasn't Chase Utley spent a lot of time batting #2 for the Phillies? That works. Keith Hernandez always struck me as a guy whose skills would have been well-suited to the #2 spot; of course, he usually batted #3. Maybe Joe Morgan should have batted #2 for the Big Red Machine.


Ryne Sandberg batted mostly #2 for the Cubs. Of course he got the job initially because he was a scrappy white middle infielder who couldn't hit, but he kept the job once he became one of the top hitters in the league. How many #2 hitters have led the league in HR?
   21. bobm Posted: May 20, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4136255)
IIRC Eddie Mathews led the NL in HR in 1959 batting #2
   22. Walt Davis Posted: May 21, 2012 at 03:26 AM (#4136636)
Did the Book say the best hitter should go #2? I do recall they said your best 3 should (generally) be 1, 2 and 4 but that the stereotypes held true to a small extent -- i.e. if one of your top 3 was more the speedy/OBP/low power type you put him #1 and if one was more the SLG-y type he went #4 and the "line drive" hitter type at #2. Also back-to-back LHB were to be avoided if possible. But that was a long time ago and it doesn't matter much.

It remains one of the bigger disconnects between "saber wisdom" and "old school" as the old school still usually bats the best hitter #3.
   23. Dan Posted: May 21, 2012 at 05:55 AM (#4136643)
Even saber friendly managers like Maddon and Acta tend to stick with batting the best hitter third.
   24. cardsfanboy Posted: May 31, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4144832)
I'm glad to see Ozzie high up on that list in post 19. He isn't a Jeter type of hitter, but he is probably what I think of when I think of a "great number two hitter, that the traditionalists would accept in the number two spot.".

Traditionally, I think of a number two hitter as a guy who gets a fair amount of walks(allows the leadoff hitter to steal) is a primary contact hitter(low strikeout total, willing to bunt for a hit type of guy) doesn't hit into to many double plays, has plus speed.

Personally, I liked guys like Jim Edmonds in the number two spot, low dp total, sees a lot of pitches, high obp, and a little pop in the bat, and average or better speed. I think the stressing of the contact hitter aspect is what many traditionalist would prefer to see in the number two spot, and that is counter intuitive to me. I understand the hit and run aspect of having a speedy runner on in front of you, but many contact hitters also generally see fewer pitches, meaning less opportunities to run.

   25. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: May 31, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4144856)
Cardsfanboy gets it right.

High OBP near the top of the lineup. Low OBP at the bottom of the lineup. And when people with high OBP are on base they need opportunities to run.

Why would anyone expcet Brent Morel to be anything other than horrid?

I don't know ... there has still never been a good player named after a fungus.
   26. OCF Posted: May 31, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4144881)
Sure, Ozzie as a #2 hitter makes lots of sense. But he didn't find his way to that spot until relatively late in his career. I think as late as 1985, he was still batting mostly #7 (although after the Coleman tarp roller incident, he batted leadoff in the post-season).

High OBP near the top of the lineup. Low OBP at the bottom of the lineup. And when people with high OBP are on base they need opportunities to run.

The problem is that your personnel may leave you in a "what do I do with that" situation. Since we're talking about Ozzie, I'll pick another hitter whose career overlapped that time: Mike Scioscia. His strikeouts were low and his walks were high. I think he was what cardsfanboy meant when he said "a primary contact hitter." His power was - meh. Over his career, his OBP was .020 above adjusted league average and his SLG .028 below that. In his best year he had a .407 OBP in a .322 environment.

But of course he ran like a catcher. And played 130 games a year, like a catcher. So what do you do with him?
   27. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: June 01, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4144886)
Not leadoff.
   28. Ron J Posted: June 01, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4144903)
The highest non-Mantle OBP on the team belonged to Elston Howard.


True, but there's no way a manager could have anticipated anything like this. He'd played 640 games prior to 1961 (much of it in a platoon or semi-platoon role) and his career OBP was .314.

That's a little better than either Richardson or Kubek, but he did have the platoon advantage more frequently than either of them. I think there's a lot to be said for a lineup that started off with Kubek, LF platoon. Or even bat Skowron second (though he had a poor OBP year by his standards, and was always pretty easy to double up)

It'd be a positive if only because it would take a bunch of plate appearances away from Richardson, and it would be pretty reasonable to expect Richardson to be the worst hitting regular.
   29. bobm Posted: June 01, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4144934)
Sure, Ozzie as a #2 hitter makes lots of sense. But he didn't find his way to that spot until relatively late in his career.

From B-R: "Batting Events -- Ozzie Smith ... 10778 Plate Appearances in Career-1996"
OrderPos    PA
     2nd  6852
     8th  1749
     1st  1223
     7th   658
     3rd   164
     6th    77
     9th    46
     5th     5
     4th     4


*1986 was his last year with over 100 PA batting 8th.
*From 1982-1995 he never had over 100 PA batting 1st.
*1985 and 1986 were the only 2 years he had over 100 PA batting 7th.

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