One reason so many teams get so little out of that spot is … well … they give the job to a mediocre hitter. You’d think it elementary that a manager wants to have his better batters bat the most, but what can you say when the majority of White Sox lineups have had Brent Morel or Gordon Beckham batting 2nd? Their career OBPs before this year were .285 and .318, respectively. Sure, no one foresaw them being as horrid as they’ve been so far — but was there any reason to think either one would do well in the #2 role? Morel was an especially comical choice, going 6 for 43 with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks before that particular experiment was scuttled.
...The ChiSox rank 3rd in OBP from the leadoff spot (.375) and 5th from #3. But their cleanup men (mainly Paul Konerko) rank 11th in PAs with RISP and with any runner on. And so Konerko, batting .362 over all and .387 with RISP, and playing in every game but one, is on pace for 30 HRs, but only 90 RBI.
I offer one last stat line: In 1991, a young sweet-swinging lefty with some pop batted 2nd for the White Sox most of the year and drove in 100 runs on the nose. In 114 games hitting 2nd, he produced 87 RBI (that’s 124 RBI per 162 G), with 21 HRs, a .294 BA and .378 OBP. He sacrificed just 4 times. The White Sox had just 2 other regulars with OPS+ above 98, and they played in a neutral park, but they were well above average in scoring.
That sweet-swinging lefty now makes out the White Sox lineup cards. Robin Ventura, free your mind. Free Adam Dunn. Bat him 2nd!
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1. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: May 19, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4135681)edit: What would be the best current lineup of guys by most frequent batting order, given their current hitting skill and needing to field a full team?
Just off the top of my head:
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
SS Derek Jeter
DH David Ortiz
3B Miguel Cabrera
2B Robbie Cano
I can't think of a LF/RF/C/1B that fits best in the bottom of the order, all the really good players hit higher up.
CF Ellsbury
SS Jeter
LF Braun
3B Cabrera
2B Cano
RF Nelson Cruz
1B Mark Trumbo
C Mike Napoli (yep, over his career he's got more AB in the 8 hole than anywhere else. GJ Scioscia)
P Zambrano
Why would anyone expcet Brent Morel to be anything other than horrid?
All of MLB: 5342 Plate Appearances in 2012, batting 2nd
EDIT: 191 batters have a PA as a 2B in 2012
Rk Player #Matching PA SO BA OBP SLG OPS GDP 1 J.J. Hardy 39 Ind. Games 180 25 .253 .300 .476 .776 7 2 Martin Prado 37 Ind. Games 168 19 .324 .389 .500 .889 3 3 Elvis Andrus 36 Ind. Games 171 22 .317 .398 .414 .811 4 4 Mark Ellis 33 Ind. Games 149 17 .273 .372 .367 .739 2 5 Curtis Granderson 28 Ind. Games 124 34 .275 .358 .587 .945 2 6 Jason Kipnis 27 Ind. Games 124 18 .268 .325 .411 .736 3 6 Emilio Bonifacio 27 Ind. Games 122 23 .240 .342 .240 .582 2 8 Dustin Pedroia 26 Ind. Games 114 11 .311 .368 .544 .912 1 8 Brennan Boesch 26 Ind. Games 113 25 .218 .239 .345 .584 4 10 Jamey Carroll 25 Ind. Games 110 11 .221 .321 .253 .574 3 11 Melky Cabrera 23 Ind. Games 105 12 .287 .352 .404 .757 0 11 Dustin Ackley 23 Ind. Games 102 19 .221 .275 .305 .580 0 13 Drew Stubbs 22 Ind. Games 100 27 .298 .327 .457 .784 0 13 Placido Polanco 22 Ind. Games 97 10 .275 .313 .330 .642 2 13 Kelly Johnson 22 Ind. Games 101 26 .250 .376 .440 .817 3 13 Jose Altuve 22 Ind. Games 99 13 .341 .398 .489 .887 3 17 Cliff Pennington 20 Ind. Games 90 15 .247 .315 .346 .660 0 18 Daniel Murphy 19 Ind. Games 86 8 .325 .384 .416 .799 1 18 Howie Kendrick 19 Ind. Games 83 21 .250 .277 .413 .690 2 20 Aaron Hill 18 Ind. Games 79 6 .239 .316 .479 .795 1 20 Alex Gordon 18 Ind. Games 80 10 .343 .425 .557 .982 1 20 Tony Campana 18 Ind. Games 78 14 .288 .338 .348 .687 0 23 Carlos Pena 17 Ind. Games 78 20 .266 .397 .438 .835 1 23 Dexter Fowler 17 Ind. Games 73 20 .188 .268 .328 .596 2 23 Danny Espinosa 17 Ind. Games 78 21 .212 .312 .273 .584 1 23 Darwin Barney 17 Ind. Games 74 8 .279 .329 .382 .711 4 27 Jon Jay 15 Ind. Games 69 6 .400 .455 .517 .971 3 28 Yunel Escobar 14 Ind. Games 61 6 .321 .377 .393 .770 3 29 Jose Tabata 13 Ind. Games 58 9 .255 .281 .345 .626 1 29 Nyjer Morgan 13 Ind. Games 53 11 .204 .235 .204 .439 1 29 Jed Lowrie 13 Ind. Games 62 8 .275 .403 .431 .835 0 29 Coco Crisp 13 Ind. Games 54 7 .260 .315 .280 .595 1Derek Jeter averages 16 GIDP per 162 games over his career. He is tied with Paul Konerko for 29th alltime in GIDP. They're also the active leaders in career GIDP.
Derek Jeter has several stengths as a hitter. GIDP avoidance isn't among them.
I marvel at the 1961 Yankees who had Richardson and Kubek batting 1-2, and who scored just 80 and 84 runs, respectively, batting ahead of Maris and Mantle all year. I wonder how Joe Maddon would have built a lineup out of that lot. Yogi Berra might have been the leadoff hitter.
Robin Yount and Alex Rodriguez were arguably the best hitters in the 1982 and 1996 American Leagues, respectively. That's a nice model for any spot in any lineup, especially when the player can also play shortstop.
I'm pretty sure The Book actually suggests that you should put your best hitter in the #2 hole. Which makes a certain amount of sense: you want a high OBP for the sluggers batting 3-4-5; you want a decent SLG because (hopefully) he'll be batting a lot with the leadoff hitter already on base; and, of course, the #2 hitter will get a lot of PAs, and you want your best hitters to get the most PAs. My sense is that the #2 slot is the one with by far the biggest gap between what sabermetrics thinks you should do and what is actually done in a traditional lineup.
The highest non-Mantle OBP on the team belonged to Elston Howard. I'm not sure that even the most ardent adherents of sabrmetrics could have stomached Ellie in the leadoff spot. OTOH, it's not as if Richardson and Kubek were tearing up the basepaths themselves. In a DH league, you might go with a Johnny Blanchard/Bob Cerv platoon.
Kiko, that's largely the point I was trying to make by mentioning Yount and Rodriguez in the first place - that's there's nothing at all wrong with batting a great hitter, even the best hitter in the lineup, in the #2 spot. More recently, hasn't Chase Utley spent a lot of time batting #2 for the Phillies? That works. Keith Hernandez always struck me as a guy whose skills would have been well-suited to the #2 spot; of course, he usually batted #3. Maybe Joe Morgan should have batted #2 for the Big Red Machine. You can't complain too much about having a contender for the batting championship (Griffey, Jr.) in the #2 spot with Morgan #3, but it would have worked the other way around. And yes, I think the Giants should have batted Barry Bonds in the #2 spot. As is was, a lot of his HR were with the bases empty anyway, and that many more PA would have been that many more BB, if nothing else.
Morgan batted almost exclusively in the 2 slot for the Reds from 1972 through 1974.
Rk Player #Matching PA BA OBP SLG OPS GDP 1 Nellie Fox 1711 Ind. Games 7805 .292 .352 .366 .718 134 2 Omar Vizquel 1569 Ind. Games 7137 .277 .344 .361 .704 121 3 Ozzie Smith 1529 Ind. Games 6846 .268 .342 .334 .676 93 4 Jay Bell 1319 Ind. Games 5975 .274 .352 .427 .780 118 5 Derek Jeter 1304 Ind. Games 6025 .314 .385 .455 .839 131 6 Billy Herman 1262 Ind. Games 5767 .302 .363 .411 .774 139 7 Doc Cramer 1258 Ind. Games 5921 .299 .341 .380 .721 53 8 Ryne Sandberg 1217 Ind. Games 5429 .291 .348 .473 .821 79 9 Placido Polanco 1205 Ind. Games 5532 .304 .348 .411 .758 147 10 Al Dark 1152 Ind. Games 5262 .291 .330 .407 .737 93 11 Rod Carew 1132 Ind. Games 5128 .329 .391 .430 .822 108 12 Joe Morgan 1126 Ind. Games 5100 .270 .385 .417 .801 44 13 Red Rolfe 1113 Ind. Games 5287 .289 .360 .414 .773 14 14 Edgar Renteria 1110 Ind. Games 5066 .286 .345 .390 .735 128 14 Johnny Pesky 1110 Ind. Games 5202 .310 .397 .390 .787 78 16 Robin Yount 1069 Ind. Games 4803 .293 .348 .465 .813 75 17 Glenn Beckert 1068 Ind. Games 4742 .289 .324 .354 .677 91 18 Roberto Alomar 1043 Ind. Games 4673 .295 .364 .423 .787 92 19 Larry Bowa 1032 Ind. Games 4620 .264 .299 .327 .626 64 20 Dick Groat 1008 Ind. Games 4542 .283 .327 .366 .693 122 21 Pee Wee Reese 991 Ind. Games 4552 .277 .366 .392 .758 120 22 Buddy Lewis 977 Ind. Games 4502 .300 .363 .421 .784 42 23 Red Schoendienst 965 Ind. Games 4359 .294 .338 .399 .737 93 24 Felix Millan 927 Ind. Games 4165 .281 .325 .342 .666 106 25 Tony Gwynn 896 Ind. Games 3958 .338 .385 .457 .842 117Ryne Sandberg batted mostly #2 for the Cubs. Of course he got the job initially because he was a scrappy white middle infielder who couldn't hit, but he kept the job once he became one of the top hitters in the league. How many #2 hitters have led the league in HR?
It remains one of the bigger disconnects between "saber wisdom" and "old school" as the old school still usually bats the best hitter #3.
Traditionally, I think of a number two hitter as a guy who gets a fair amount of walks(allows the leadoff hitter to steal) is a primary contact hitter(low strikeout total, willing to bunt for a hit type of guy) doesn't hit into to many double plays, has plus speed.
Personally, I liked guys like Jim Edmonds in the number two spot, low dp total, sees a lot of pitches, high obp, and a little pop in the bat, and average or better speed. I think the stressing of the contact hitter aspect is what many traditionalist would prefer to see in the number two spot, and that is counter intuitive to me. I understand the hit and run aspect of having a speedy runner on in front of you, but many contact hitters also generally see fewer pitches, meaning less opportunities to run.
High OBP near the top of the lineup. Low OBP at the bottom of the lineup. And when people with high OBP are on base they need opportunities to run.
Why would anyone expcet Brent Morel to be anything other than horrid?
I don't know ... there has still never been a good player named after a fungus.
High OBP near the top of the lineup. Low OBP at the bottom of the lineup. And when people with high OBP are on base they need opportunities to run.
The problem is that your personnel may leave you in a "what do I do with that" situation. Since we're talking about Ozzie, I'll pick another hitter whose career overlapped that time: Mike Scioscia. His strikeouts were low and his walks were high. I think he was what cardsfanboy meant when he said "a primary contact hitter." His power was - meh. Over his career, his OBP was .020 above adjusted league average and his SLG .028 below that. In his best year he had a .407 OBP in a .322 environment.
But of course he ran like a catcher. And played 130 games a year, like a catcher. So what do you do with him?
True, but there's no way a manager could have anticipated anything like this. He'd played 640 games prior to 1961 (much of it in a platoon or semi-platoon role) and his career OBP was .314.
That's a little better than either Richardson or Kubek, but he did have the platoon advantage more frequently than either of them. I think there's a lot to be said for a lineup that started off with Kubek, LF platoon. Or even bat Skowron second (though he had a poor OBP year by his standards, and was always pretty easy to double up)
It'd be a positive if only because it would take a bunch of plate appearances away from Richardson, and it would be pretty reasonable to expect Richardson to be the worst hitting regular.
From B-R: "Batting Events -- Ozzie Smith ... 10778 Plate Appearances in Career-1996"
OrderPos PA 2nd 6852 8th 1749 1st 1223 7th 658 3rd 164 6th 77 9th 46 5th 5 4th 4*1986 was his last year with over 100 PA batting 8th.
*From 1982-1995 he never had over 100 PA batting 1st.
*1985 and 1986 were the only 2 years he had over 100 PA batting 7th.
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