Dunno, but I do know of two that stalled…and they were well past 3rd base.
That’s quite a list of pitchers. Obviously tilted to the first part of the post-1961 period owing to the factors cited in the preamble. But, why such outstanding pitchers, as opposed to a more typical assortment of hurlers?
Here is my hypothesis. I welcome your feedback (not that I have to invite you, but go ahead and poke as many holes as you like). So, here goes.
1. This group will be allowing fewer runs (even a lot fewer runs) than “average” and “below average” pitchers in any era. Don’t think there should be much debate on this point.
2. The defense behind this group will play better than the defense behind an average or below average pitcher. Why? Fewer base runners, fewer pitches, fewer balls in play, balls in play not hit as hard, pitchers (probably) working faster – all these factors suggest less pressure on the defense and, ergo, less likelihood of committing errors that lead to unearned runs.
3. Factor #1 will be more pronounced than factor #2. That is, while the defense will play better behind this group, it’s not like they’re going to commit only half as many errors as they would behind a below average pitcher. However, a top rank pitcher may very well allow runs at a rate only half that of a below average pitcher, and perhaps 2/3 the rate of an average pitcher.
4. Taking the 3 points together, the reduced absolute number of unearned runs allowed that is expected for this group (point 1 and 2) will still be a larger proportion of their much lower total runs allowed (point 1 and 3), than would be the case for less skilled pitchers (i.e. the great majority of major league pitchers).
So, there’s the hypothesis. It would be great if I could get stats on errors committed behind pitchers (point 2), but I don’t know where those figures might be. I expect the rest of the argument should be fairly self-evident. But, if I’m wrong, please let me know.
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1. Graham Posted: September 17, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4238044)The same is very true of Harang (one of the Top 3 pitchers listed for 2012). Aaron has two big years of UER but has otherwise been quite stingy with them.
It's too early to say for sure on C.J. Wilson, but he may lean toward yielding more UER than average.
As we've discussed here before, strikeout/BB and GB/FB rates offer the best explanation for UER disparities, as evidenced by Brown and Schilling.
Bingo, which author misses for the forest.
As a sinkerball pitcher, I was the beneficiary of a defense that wasn't constantly getting set on their toes and ready to respond only to put up with yet another 3-2 count or numerous walks and 100 pitches through 5 innings.
Perhaps the limits on amps and ADD-like drugs hurt fielding also? I'd be interested if anyone has some data.
As for the article it seems the metric that would provide the results he was looking for is UR/IP not UR/ER.
I'm surprised that Sudden Sam isn't on any of the lists in TFA. He always seemed to get an ungodly number of errors behind him because (the theory was) his infielders were numbed by a succession of 3-2 counts, BB's, K's, and therefore not on their toes. In 1968, e.g. he have up 78 runs, of which only 54 were earned, an unheard of 31% unearned runs. (Lifetime he's right at 12%)
Two very different players in this regard show the opposite:
Quick-working Mark Buehrle, not one to strike out or walk many: 2,665 IP - 124 UER. 1 UER for every 21 IP.
Tortoisean Josh Beckett, who strikes out nearly a batter per inning but also walks 2.7 per game: 1,873 IP, 64 UER. 1 UER: 29 IP.
Edit: And one more, a stunner, albeit in a smaller sample:
Daisuke Matsusaka, like Beckett, he strikes out nearly a batter per inning but he walks more than four per game, while redefining the idea of "nibbler.":
663 IP, 11 UER. That's 1 UER for every 60 IP, a rate better than Schilling, the all-time record holder.
In each of those seasons, both of which were 162+ innings, 23% of his total runs allowed were unearned.
Jim Kaat 0.583
Tim Wakefield 0.583
Paul Splittorff 0.567
Tom Candiotti 0.558
Wilbur Wood 0.553
Phil Niekro 0.541
Charlie Hough 0.533
Jerry Reuss 0.532
Juan Marichal 0.520
Joe Coleman 0.515
Tommy John 0.512
Ken Holtzman 0.509
Bob Knepper 0.505
Rick Wise 0.501
5 knucklers out of 12
*uERA = unearned runs/ 9IP
That - and the promise of getting lucky - worked in my favor. Our left fielder Tom Bhagwat told me "I love it when you are on the mound at home. The games always last a little over 2 hours and I can schedule a date on those nights."
Wouldn't this likely be due to PB rather than E?
This has nothing to do with Sabathia or Unearned Runs, but just as an aside, it's SO nice to put a tracer on a claimed minor league feat and have it check out.
And of course I knew already that Bob's the real deal, so I was totally unsurprised in his case, but I wonder how many people realize what an enormous percentage of people who claimed to have played professional baseball on any level are just blowing it out of their butts? The ONLY other person out of about a dozen such claimants I've ever met whose alleged baseball career was more than a BS story was this this guy, and that was nearly 40 years ago.
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